Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[jamtomorrow]

13 minutes ago, planit said:

Buybacks are beautiful when there is at least a 30% undervaluation

Oilies laddering into their own shares with their own FCF are starting to look like the last choppers to leave Saigon. Feeling very happy to be on board.

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Speaking of Centrica, here you go. Remember when @DurhamBorn told us they weren't allowed to make a profit? They were being trashed and demonised by politicians for profiteering, do you remember? Gaslighting fuckers

Oh it's all coming out now, isn't it? 

On the plus side, it reminds me of DBs cigarette point, that you could add a penny a fag and no one would notice? Utilities could double their profit and no one would notice either.

Yep utter nuts.The macro call and everything else was bang on,but the reason most of us including me lost money earlier on them was because it was stolen by governments to hide the massive costs they were adding on and extracting themselves.In affect they didnt want Macbeth handing me divis to invest where i choose,or consume,they wanted to take it and central plan.Now we have that disaster.Luckily though for us the roadmap itself was 100% correct and their idiotic interventions meant our profits elsewhere were magnified up.Drax for instance made me 7x the losses on Macbeth.

As noted above @reformed nice guy the long bond is slowly moving.Every tick means higher profits for companies with high assets depreciating with fixed coupon debts.

Im getting really excited for the cycle.The pain,the dislocation,the shortages,but above all watching everyone suffer a full on distribution cycle and not know they are in one until its all too late.

Just wait for the politics when the middle gets whacked this year and sees the help only for bennies as usual.The national insurance increase for instance is a gigantic policy error.Sunak is Fubar.

[Barnsey]

14 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I was buzzing with hope for macbeth ...now this news pops up this evening:

 

"British Gas owner appoints Amber Rudd as a director"

 

What has this useless ex gov-muppet got, skillswise to help turn around CNA?

 

FookALL...time to bail on Monday morning?!... what do YOU reckon @DurhamBorn and folks here?

 

They should appoint @Cattle Prod as CEO and me as finance director, we'd turn CNA around in 18 months, the share price would be over £4 quid, why are ya ?

we would do a far superior job than that incompetent gov nitwit!

 

Let's hope the CNA board does NOT take any advice from this moron, otherwise I worry macbeth...will be back down hill in ...bear territory!

(rant over, btw, bear pic copyright @nirvana)

 

 

 

I just sold and bought Direct Line, the hype was just becoming too big for me to handle, and Gov will probably step in soon to hammer any potential profit from this latest crisis. May buy back in if I get the chance but the ongoing lack of a decent Divi puts me off.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, planit said:

Buybacks are beautiful when there is at least a 30% undervaluation

Exactly im so contrarian it hurts.Iv got huge holdings in BP,BAT etc and yet im gutted when i see them go up because they are all in or launching share buy backs this year.I want them to stay down while they are buying back that stock.They can go up later when 20% of the equity has been retired.IMPs should start a 5%-6% a year buyback as well this year,BATs will probably be 4%-5%.

BP is a near 200% undervaluation.I think they are going to a tenner in the cycle.Pullbacks should be bought for anyone not fully allocated.Repsol too.

[Ash4781b]

Although it is ridiculously late notice I expect they will delay the National insurance increase. It’s dreadful timing. They played around with Council funding to specifically stop them from raising bills in the +5% range.

[DoINeedOne]

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That's a super clip.It's quite telling at the start that none of the nurses want to say anythign.Although Kings can boast a 90% vaxx rate,how much of that has been achieved by bullying?

I wish we could see Javid's face at the end.Probably clueless as to what to say to someone who actually has some high level medical qualifications.

As soon as the current crop of the Westminster elite meet real people,they struggle to hold their own.Clueless in so many ways.

Javid's probably easier to replace than the Doc...

Full video here with Javid trying to answer but sounding like a fucking idiot

Would happily buy that DR a few beers just for the fact he didn't just stand they like the others and actually voiced his view which is how it should be

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That's a super clip.It's quite telling at the start that none of the nurses want to say anythign.Although Kings can boast a 90% vaxx rate,how much of that has been achieved by bullying?

I wish we could see Javid's face at the end.Probably clueless as to what to say to someone who actually has some high level medical qualifications.

As soon as the current crop of the Westminster elite meet real people,they struggle to hold their own.Clueless in so many ways.

Javid's probably easier to replace than the Doc....

Have you seen the latest surveillance report? The infection rates are much lower for no vax, mandates don't compute?

[Axeman123]

DH casually predicts the US 10 year could breach 2% this week, in the replies to another tweet. I can only assume that would cause some real contraction in credit, even if the 2% barrier is entirely psychological.

 

[JREWING]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

BP is a near 200% undervaluation.I think they are going to a tenner in the cycle.

BP is struggling to break that 365p resistance. I've a big holding with my finger hovering over sell at times.

The div cut was orchestral in popping its SP and will act as resistance as there are far better options offering better returns in the market. Low div yield compared to BATS for example, low growth possible due to low yield for income. 

The murmurs of a windfall tax also adds to downward pressure on the SP.

If BP is making  huge Profit while households go cold, bills double, Loony faces backlash and will be under more pressure.

Its a political hot potatoe.

Interesting times.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, JREWING said:

If BP is making  huge Profit while households go cold, bills double, Loony faces backlash and will be under more pressure.

Isn't that the scenario Centrica have just recovered from though?

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

DH casually predicts the US 10 year could breach 2% this week, in the replies to another tweet. I can only assume that would cause some real contraction in credit, even if the 2% barrier is entirely psychological.

 

Next week, next month, next year. Eventually it will. I like DH but don’t take timing advice from him as he’s awful at that.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have you seen the latest surveillance report? The infection rates are much lower for no vax, mandates don't compute?

Have a link for those stats?

[Axeman123]

30 minutes ago, JREWING said:

The murmurs of a windfall tax also adds to downward pressure on the SP.

If BP is making  huge Profit while households go cold, bills double, Loony faces backlash and will be under more pressure.

Its a political hot potatoe.

Interesting times.

At some point governments will want them to invest, and have to allow them the profits to do so. 

Echoing this is a great section in this video (set to start at right time).

[planit]

33 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Have a link for those stats?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1045329/Vaccine_surveillance_report_week_1_2022.pdf

 

Page 42

They even give reasons LOL

 • people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19 and so more likely to be identified as a case (based on the data provided by the NHS Test and Trace)

• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues

• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

 

[stoobs]

In the same table it shows the death rate for unvaccinated is around 7 times higher than vaccinated.

[DeepLurker]

54 minutes ago, stoobs said:

In the same table it shows the death rate for unvaccinated is around 7 times higher than vaccinated.

It kind of makes sense - purely at a personal level, I have noticed lots of people getting together over the Xmas period, full-on party mode. "We'rE aLL VaCCinAteD sO iT's OK". Whereas the unvaxed e.g. my brother-in-law stay quietly at home (well at least that's what he told me!).

So higher infection rates for the vaccinated due to their different behaviour. But once the infection is in you, the unvaxed are more likely to be badly affected.

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, stoobs said:

In the same table it shows the death rate for unvaccinated is around 7 times higher than vaccinated.

Can you explain how you get that ratio. I presume you're looking at table 12. 

if you're looking at table 13 I wonder what they classify those who have had one experimental injection as?

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Have a link for those stats?

I see @planitlinked to the document for that chart but the index of all the reports is here. Christmas may have made it worse but the cases have been lower in the novaxs for a long time. My point to @sancho panzawas that I don't see how they can justify mandates with those infection rates. Re deaths being higher in novax's, one reason is because they include any single dosed deaths in with the novax's because they weren't 'fully vaccinated'. No doubt they will soon include the double dosed as novax's because if not boosted they won't be 'fully vaccinated'.

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, stoobs said:

In the same table it shows the death rate for unvaccinated is around 7 times higher than vaccinated.

problem is, stoobs, that includes:

- people who could not be vaccinated due to underlying serious health issues

- people near end of life who could not be vaccinated (got a cancer that will kill you in 3 months? no jab for you)  

- people who died of something else, but tested positive for COVID (many of the vaccine free in younger age groups will be those doing dangerous shit like driving cars madly, rock climbing, etc).

To get a real picture, you need to know how many otherwise healthy people under 70 died OF covid in both vaxxed and vaccine free camps.

They won't tell us that.

[stoobs]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Can you explain how you get that ratio. I presume you're looking at table 12. 

if you're looking at table 13 I wonder what they classify those who have had one experimental injection as?

Table 13. I assume the experimental group is comparatively small?

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I see @planitlinked to the document for that chart but the index of all the reports is here. Christmas may have made it worse but the cases have been lower in the novaxs for a long time. My point to @sancho panzawas that I don't see how they can justify mandates with those infection rates. Re deaths being higher in novax's, one reason is because they include any single dosed deaths in with the novax's because they weren't 'fully vaccinated'. No doubt they will soon include the double dosed as novax's because if not boosted they won't be 'fully vaccinated'.

I don’t understand mandating or otherwise encouraging people to get vaccinated to ‘protect others’. The MSM has reported for some time that the vaccines have no effect on transmission. They just reduce your chance of dying.

The text underneath Table 13 states it compares 2 doses with no doses. Single doses aren’t included in the figures.

16 minutes ago, wherebee said:

problem is, stoobs, that includes:

- people who could not be vaccinated due to underlying serious health issues

- people near end of life who could not be vaccinated (got a cancer that will kill you in 3 months? no jab for you)  

- people who died of something else, but tested positive for COVID (many of the vaccine free in younger age groups will be those doing dangerous shit like driving cars madly, rock climbing, etc).

To get a real picture, you need to know how many otherwise healthy people under 70 died OF covid in both vaxxed and vaccine free camps.

They won't tell us that.

Good points. Although bear in mind this data is for a 4(?) week period 22 months into the pandemic. The grim reaper will have collected much of our vulnerable long ago.

[Transistor Man]

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, Transistor Man said:

 

That guy has a very succinct way of putting things that really makes you wonder.

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, stoobs said:

The text underneath Table 13 states it compares 2 doses with no doses. Single doses aren’t included in the figures.

Single dosed were added to the 'unvaccinated' figures because they weren't classed as fully vaccinated.

[Castlevania]

15 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have you seen the latest surveillance report? The infection rates are much lower for no vax, mandates don't compute?

I’m not sure you can read too much into that. We know the vaccines are rubbish at preventing infection by omicron. From my own experience the people who are hyper vigilant pro vaccines do the right thing crowd are far more likely to get tested and submit their at home lateral flow test results. Apparently according to some of them if you have sniffles you should take a test? Madness to me.

[Majorpain]

31 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

That guy has a very succinct way of putting things that really makes you wonder.

The problem is the AGR's have been life extended multiple times and have started to get cracks in the graphite that make up the core.  You can decommission it at a sensible time, or take the chance it'll end up decommissioning itself by trying the spread the reactor core over southern Scotland.

Real crime is not starting to build new power stations in early 2010's, even in a mad rush SMR will be 2025 at the earliest, although they can probably be put together quite quickly after that.