Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

41 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The key word there is oil, they're not talking about gas which is half their business. They could easily achieve this by favouring gas projects over oil. I noticed that the EU has just shamelessly designated natural gas as a green fuel: this will have enormous consequences. 

And its their production,not Rosneft 

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, JMD said:

Ive always thought a 3 day week would help transform society in many many ways. Not just in terms of employment. But also socially, and crucially also encourage more equal sharing of resources over the long term. Its a big topic and I know by just saying these things it makes me sound socialist, but I'm really not. It's what should have begun to happen back in the 70's when it was clear then that the capitalist model was running out of steam, instead the 'can was kicked' and we got financialisation and globalisation... The thing is that changes like 3 day week, could still help prevent UBI being implemented, but today I fear it is very apparent that politicians actually want policies like UBI because these are methods of control, and control seems to be the end goal. 

The huge problem in the west is that some people work 40 hours plus the travelling,getting ready etc etc for £450 a week and others work no hours for £450 a week in bennies.The system actually needs the first person to work 28 hours for £450 a week and the other person to work 20 hours for £300 etc.The system is collapsing because people are fed up being no better off working full time than people who dont work.

How we get there who knows,but the idea 40% of working age adults will give up their lives so the other 60% can swan around is at breaking point.The government cant tax them anymore to give to the rest,but inflation means they need to.

People will find a way themselves,multi generation living,working up to tax allowance,downsizing etc etc.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

At risk of going off piste, Give it 40 years for skyscrapers, most countries design codes are 50 to 100 years. They dont last forever, metal fatigue in structural steel from wind forces .These assets will be the liabilities of the future.

They are closely packed normally in central cities so controlled explosion not an option.

Think of the cost of taking down a 200m skyscraper, some property funds will be hosed for sure. Then think about a 500m or 800m

Record is 187 demolition according to google . Haha. Over 1300 above 200m, no whole life cisting here, they will be sold on to some patsey.s property fund. Guessing retail investors.

I agree with you... However this discussion reminds me of the conspiracy theory that Chicago's tallest building, Willis Tower I think?, was supposed to have had a nuclear bomb designed into its foundations to 'solve' its future demolition problem!.. though hope your not going to tell me it's actually true, and that the yanks really are that crazy?!                       (story apparently comes from some of the 911 conspiracy theorists who say that's why some US fighter jets were initially scrambled to Chicago in order to prevent attack on the Willis Tower, Tbh it is many years since I read about this so some of the story details might now be 'scrambled' in my own memory!).

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Sure worth looking at if they come into my cross hairs!  Companies positioned like that are good, although like with funeral directors, etc others seem to have been there already and hollowed them out.

Harley, sorry to ask a follow up, but when you say 'hollowed out' are you talking here only about debt? I think you are, but so for example I try to find ones that have very little/no debt, like ASX, and this one goes onto my BK wish list.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Brussels Airlines has operated 3,000 flights without passengers this winter to avoid losing take-off and landing slots.

[working woman]

Re lack of motivation in the workforce. Whilst there will always be workaholics, and those who are addicted to earning more money than they need to spend on stuff they don't need, many people would like to downshift and have a more balanced life.  One barrier is affording it, (high housing costs). The other is employers allowing flexible hours.  If people are managing to find a way, good for them.  I work in a shop and jumped at the chance to reduce my hours in Jan/Feb whilst footfall is low and am taking unpaid leave. Starts this week*.   

Re Increasing energy price rises, one consequence may be a change in how people cook and eat. Maybe more salads, quick stir fries. brick built BBQ's in the garden. Maybe running a fridge/freezer will become too expensive. 

*Using my extra free time to help look after my sick MIL and  useful Dosbodder activities such as researching new meal ideas as per the above - salads and stir-fries.

  

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I am mildly obsessed by the Singer building. It is widely thought that a big part of the decision to demolish it was the costs and risks associated with the top being clad in stone, and a lack of specialist skills/knowledge of how to maintain and risk assess this material at extreme height.

I would imagine more modern buildings being designed with dismantling in mind to some degree.

They don't make 'em like this anymore...

Fred Dibnah to the rescue... 'When theres only one of you, and a great pile of bricks, you've got to have a stout heart'.            Just gotta watch at 3:00, when he negotiates the top of that tower!!!...                  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KeL8TwdiL5Y.  

[Lightscribe]

Back loading a bit more into FRES today as is heading towards the 800 mark again. I’m keeping the main holding in there (I bought in at 790) and I’ll just sell these ladders again in the next run up.

 

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have we to do a joint £30m project? 17 of us about £1/2m each to raise the £8.4m 28% required. If we spend say £3.8m of the extra funding faffing about pretending to look for oil, we've spent £12.2m but they then give us £21.6m when we come up dry. Net profit £9.4m, so we each double our money and there's a spare £1m for whoever thought of this idea.  

ex-Enron execs cut their teetfh on those type of projects! ...I believe that they have since gone on to even bigger and bolder escapades!!

[JMD]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The huge problem in the west is that some people work 40 hours plus the travelling,getting ready etc etc for £450 a week and others work no hours for £450 a week in bennies.The system actually needs the first person to work 28 hours for £450 a week and the other person to work 20 hours for £300 etc.The system is collapsing because people are fed up being no better off working full time than people who dont work.

How we get there who knows,but the idea 40% of working age adults will give up their lives so the other 60% can swan around is at breaking point.The government cant tax them anymore to give to the rest,but inflation means they need to.

People will find a way themselves,multi generation living,working up to tax allowance,downsizing etc etc.

Not strictly for this thread I know. But my great fear (apart from the government control element) of UBI is that it will merely enshrine further all the negatives of having a benefit class, and there will be little or no hope of reforming this disastrous situation.                                                                                                                                    Actually I don't think most people can find their way through this, surely it requires strong leadership and policies (currently absent I know) in order to share the work load out fairly. I also think so many other social benefits would follow including strengthening the family and the individual. Ok I realise that this is precisely why government will be against such a thing. Yes I know a 3-day week may sound like a naive thing to call for, but I truly believe that without it, the default alternative will be a government favoured UBI scheme, and metaphors like 'lemmings off a cliff' wouldn't begin to describe the consequences for society if this happened.                                                                                                                          ...Where is the political party to enact this, well Corbyn (im not a fan btw) was speaking about a 3day week for the NHS at the last election, so I guess some(most?) politicians do actually know the options and the range of political choices(?).

[DurhamBorn]

My portfolio is showing the most relative strength today its shown since the goldies ran a couple of years ago.Telcos,energy,baccie all outperforming among others.Might be looking good for us if capital is coming out of growth and bonds into our areas.

[working woman]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

How we get there who knows

Employers need to be more open minded and creative in allocating shifts and employees need to say how they would like to work.

Someone I knew worked for EasyJet . The company listened when staff said they wanted a better work life balance. She had a regular 10 month contract., worked 10 months of the year and had 2 months off when the airline was quieter. She loved her 2 month unpaid holiday and picked up part-time work elsewhere if she wanted it.  Win Win all round. 

In contrast, where I work, whilst I have temporarily reduced my hours, the Manager wasn't allowed to. The Area Manager said not to do it in case the company reduced her hours permanently. All fear based and a Lose/Lose all round. 

It would be great if companies went the EasyJet route, but I suspect the easiest option for companies is to import more people who will be happy to be at the beck and call of employers.

Maybe there will be a bit of both. 

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Not strictly for this thread I know. But my great fear (apart from the government control element) of UBI is that it will merely enshrine further all the negatives of having a benefit class, and there will be little or no hope of reforming this disastrous situation.                                                                                                                                    Actually I don't think most people can find their way through this, surely it requires strong leadership and policies (currently absent I know) in order to share the work load out fairly. I also think so many other social benefits would follow including strengthening the family and the individual. Ok I realise that this is precisely why government will be against such a thing. Yes I know a 3-day week may sound like a naive thing to call for, but I truly believe that without it, the default alternative will be a government favoured UBI scheme, and metaphors like 'lemmings off a cliff' wouldn't begin to describe the consequences for society if this happened.                                                          ...Where is the political party to enact this, well Corbyn (im not a fan btw) was speaking about a 3day week for the NHS at the last election, so I guess some(most?) politicians do actually know the options and the range of political choices(?).

If it replaced all benefits and everyone got the same amount, UBI could be the solution to the current problem the govt has of paying out way too much in benefits but only to some. 

[Agent ZigZag]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Might be looking good for us if capital is coming out of growth and bonds into our areas.

I see parallels with the 2008 market correction. When QE started in March 2009 if I recall it was doom and gloom everywhere. The individual smart money i saw first hand move back into property and grabbed bargains up until 2010/11. This time the road is the same except its a different asset class, I consider the smart money has already moved into oil and gas and mining etc. Give it time and the masses/institutions will follow. I consider there is a considerable amount of growth still to come in all of the inflation loving stocks. For me I remain a buy and hold investor..

[kibuc]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I'd probably hold my nose and stand with Greta on this one. Seriously, what the hell. This is the kind of shitfuckery that really needs to go, not our ICE cars or beef on our plates but this kind of completely nonsensical waste of resources.

[reformed nice guy]

32 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

If it replaced all benefits and everyone got the same amount, UBI could be the solution to the current problem the govt has of paying out way too much in benefits but only to some. 

Its a political dead end.

Imagine if they announced UBI. At the press conference:

journalist "does that mean disabled people will get less?"

politician "of course not"

Its right back to a conditional benefits system, not a universal one. Levels of disability will rise. Widows will want to keep the income of their deceased partner. Abdul will fly over his 20 relatives, register them all then send them back.

It would not be universal.

They will demand extra for London "coz hirer prices innit". Landlords would put up rent so they would just make the housing benefit scheme more complicated and costly.

It would not be basic.

It would just be more government - the current solution for all of lives problems

[JMD]

43 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

If it replaced all benefits and everyone got the same amount, UBI could be the solution to the current problem the govt has of paying out way too much in benefits but only to some. 

I used to think presicely that, and maybe your correct in what you say. But the last two years have personally made me extremely distrustful of the state in all its forms, and it will take a lot before I get back aboard with any of their political rhetoric. Plus I'm thinking ubi will be like pensions, where for example pension credits, extra fuel payments, Christmas payments, etc, have been subsequently added. Governments just can't help bribing the electorate! Plus CBDCs now complicate the whole issue for me because I think ubi wil be used as a back door to introduce cbdc tech... I know we as individuals have little control over what ultimately is instituted. But when colleagues etc, express their opinions on these topics, I now try to plant these warnings, because when in future the 'big ubi policy sell' does arrive we just know that MSM will be putting out only one side of the story (ie the governments!).

[ThoughtCriminal]

@Cattle ProdAm I being thick or is this referring to Norwegian cost of Oil & Gas production being up by 68.7% in a year??

[kibuc]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

@Cattle ProdAm I being thick or is this referring to Norwegian cost of Oil & Gas production being up by 68.7% in a year??

Here in UK I was late to the party and only fixed my energy until March 2024 in September. Still, the best offer I could get from the same provider right now is a whooping 50% more expensive and only fixed for 18 months.

[CannonFodder]

Bought More paas and fres today, am all in now. Dont mind if market crashes , still working, still earning and still accumulating so will buy more if they go cheaper.

No mortgage and 3 months notice at work so reasonally relaxed there. 3 months pay will last me longer than that and dividends are a nice top up.

Edit - do I rotate from oil to pms is the question, think oil waking up so will stay on board for longer

[Ma2]

On 06/01/2022 at 18:42, Bobthebuilder said:

Expensive place if you are selling up, you will get a great price, where are you moving to?

North Dorset / South Somerset / South Wilts are all cheap in comparison and we can get a place in a nice market town for well under £100k less than we are selling for that has a mainline station to London and even a Waitrose, now how's that for posh

Serously though hopefully will be a good move, leaving us with cash to cover the remaining mortgage and further invest per the thoughts on here, that's one of the main reasons for it and create a buffer between us and whatever the government / economy has in store for us. Maybe be able to buy a small piece of land, again cheaper there than elsewhere.

You can never tell how things will turn out but sometimes you have to turn and face the strange and make the best of it, knowing you did it for the right reasons. A Waitrose could be a contrarian indicator for example but better than the barbers and vape shops elsewhere and it would keep the Mrs happy as in her eyes it can't be a bad area with a Waitrose

[Don Coglione]

10 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

North Dorset / South Somerset / South Wilts are all cheap in comparison and we can get a place in a nice market town for well under £100k less than we are selling for that has a mainline station to London and even a Waitrose, now how's that for posh

Serously though hopefully will be a good move, leaving us with cash to cover the remaining mortgage and further invest per the thoughts on here, that's one of the main reasons for it and create a buffer between us and whatever the government / economy has in store for us. Maybe be able to buy a small piece of land, again cheaper there than elsewhere.

You can never tell how things will turn out but sometimes you have to turn and face the strange and make the best of it, knowing you did it for the right reasons. A Waitrose could be a contrarian indicator for example but better than the barbers and vape shops elsewhere and it would keep the Mrs happy as in her eyes it can't be a bad area with a Waitrose

Salisbury's Waitrose is their flagship store. Not sure whether the wine bar has re-opened post-Covid though.

[Bobthebuilder]

18 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

North Dorset / South Somerset / South Wilts are all cheap in comparison

I know the area well, sounds like Templecombe or Gillingham. I keep an eye on the area just South of this for a potential retirement home. Good luck with it, I wish you all the best.

Big thank you to the thread contributors, @DurhamBorn,my SIPP hit an all time high today against a falling market ticker, thank you all.

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Not strictly for this thread I know. But my great fear (apart from the government control element) of UBI is that it will merely enshrine further all the negatives of having a benefit class, and there will be little or no hope of reforming this disastrous situation.                                                                                                                                    Actually I don't think most people can find their way through this, surely it requires strong leadership and policies (currently absent I know) in order to share the work load out fairly. I also think so many other social benefits would follow including strengthening the family and the individual. Ok I realise that this is precisely why government will be against such a thing. Yes I know a 3-day week may sound like a naive thing to call for, but I truly believe that without it, the default alternative will be a government favoured UBI scheme, and metaphors like 'lemmings off a cliff' wouldn't begin to describe the consequences for society if this happened.                                                                                                                          ...Where is the political party to enact this, well Corbyn (im not a fan btw) was speaking about a 3day week for the NHS at the last election, so I guess some(most?) politicians do actually know the options and the range of political choices(?).

A lot of the nhs actually work 12 hour shifts

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Here in UK I was late to the party and only fixed my energy until March 2024 in September. Still, the best offer I could get from the same provider right now is a whooping 50% more expensive and only fixed for 18 months.

I might bypass mine for 1 week a month after summer it will still cost me more ,saying that once the kids go mums my costs will plummet and I’m going to try a piggy back off next doors Wi-Fi it’s a good signal it won’t be noticeable with just me in the house.obviously if I get another lodger I won’t give a toss