Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Do you think we are at the end of the printing road or will they continue?

 

Close to the end for now.UK has a £140 billion structural deficit as well that they will have to fund on the market soon.

Most of the things going up the most in price government cant capture much extra tax on.

[CannonFodder]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Close to the end for now.UK has a £140 billion structural deficit as well that they will have to fund on the market soon.

Most of the things going up the most in price government cant capture much extra tax on.

Thank you. 

Thats a very good point of yours that I hadnt thought of, its low or zero VAT rated stuff that people will need to spend a larger proportion of income on. Therefore VAT take will drop as less left for higher items.

Lol, they are so in a bad position here. They.re bankrupt.

Time to buy a pet and cuddle it to keep warm I think.

[Loki]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

UK has a £140 billion structural deficit as well that they will have to fund on the market soon.

Does this mean on the bond (Gilt?) market?  

[Noallegiance]

Amazing what happens when Powell opens his trap.

[harp]

You know what this means don’t you folks! PMS had a little pump today and like clockwork up pops Dave! 
so it’s a sell before it rolls back over by next week 

 

[CannonFodder]

30 minutes ago, harp said:

You know what this means don’t you folks! PMS had a little pump today and like clockwork up pops Dave! 
so it’s a sell before it rolls back over by next week 

 

Lets compare to 12 months ago for his Q1 2021 forecast

[BadAlchemy]

Just what I needed to see just before settling down to sleep. I hope I dont have any dreams involving 'WifeHContrarian' !

[MrXxxx]

On 11/01/2022 at 03:23, WICAO said:

I'm at 0.26% currently and I'm trying to reduce that.

But does this include the brokers fee?...most brokers charge a minimum .30-.35% account fee, and then you have your OCF/TER on each ETF.

[MrXxxx]

23 hours ago, kibuc said:

The only coins worth holding are the ones I'm thinking about creating.

ProVax Coin and AntiVax Coin.

Show where you stand on the issue by owning the amount equal to the strength of your conviction.

What about VariVax, the ETF Index version for those who don't really understand the issue or are unsure? :-)

[MrXxxx]

19 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Nice little bounce off the bottom after buying in at 800 on FRES yesterday.

It actually followed the PM pattern for once!

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, Loki said:

I see you read my land purchase analysis but I don't remember sharing it 

No I would use it for storage and build a concrete base for a small workshop, somewhere to ride motocross bikes, probably grow some food, have a wildlife area...all sorts

What wildlife?...all those 'Oilies' you heathens are buying into and creating climate change will kill it off! :-)

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

In two minds; be nice to be self sufficient with land but aware of some of the issues - maintaining boundaries and riparian drainage such as ditches alongside neighbours and roads . Also tendency of people to move fences if no one around to grab a bit 

Throughout history always good to have land to feed oneself and family. Flip side of this is the countryside suffers in downturns. Already a wave of farm theft going on. Alone in your house in middle of nowhere can make self feel exposed.

I come from a rural background and most people had a shotgun in the house. Also people didnt leave things unattended, arranged for neighbours to check periodically when on holiday.

 

I think this is the issue especially in the UK where it is overpopulated, hence why I consider this idea is more viable in the rural parts of Spain, Portugal or Italy....be interesting to hear from those with experience if this is the case as I am considering it as part of my 'escape' plan.

[Lightscribe]

13 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Time to buy a pet and cuddle it to keep warm I think.

https://amp.ft.com/content/437d322c-4fe5-4ee2-9943-e279ed209707
 

Pets are in bubble territory just as tech and the fangs, you’ll have to wait for the BK.

You can’t even light cash anymore when it becomes increasingly worthless to keep warm (maybe that was all part of the plan) 

[Lightscribe]

Even the FT readers are starting to catch on and are putting the pieces together to work out why inflation won’t be transitory.

[M S E Refugee]

44 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://amp.ft.com/content/437d322c-4fe5-4ee2-9943-e279ed209707
 

Pets are in bubble territory just as tech and the fangs, you’ll have to wait for the BK.

You can’t even light cash anymore when it becomes increasingly worthless to keep warm (maybe that was all part of the plan) 

I'm going to sell my Rolexes tomorrow if the price is right, it looks like Rolex Watches are in Bubble territory as well.

A 41mm Rolex Oyster Perpetual with a Turquoise dial retails for £4,850 and sells on the secondary market for around £28,000. 

[CannonFodder]

19 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Even the FT readers are starting to catch on and are putting the pieces together to work out why inflation won’t be transitory.

As much as I laugh about hunters timing, I think he is right in what will happen

I.M useless at liquidity but I appreciate human nature. My guess is the following happens

1. Everyone sees the interest rate rises telegraphed. The never increase rates narrative dies.

2. Money starts to leave bonds and tech stocks out of fear of price drops as rates rise. Massive amounts, simply massive.

3 Money needs to go somewhere, some will pay down debt, some kept in cash but this not ideal in inflation. Therefore those few options left such as commodities and commodity miners will see inflows. Not everyone will go commods but Commodities are tiny compared to bonds and tech stocks so only a small amount will make a major difference. Commodity lift off.

4 as commodities go up and bonds and tech down, this turns into a frenzy of greed.  The hunter melt up.

I Think 3 is what we are seeing now.

5. Eventual collapse of a business cycle as always boom and bust, sell off of everthing in fear frenzy 

6 part 3 repeats as inflation still high; cash takes pain and wealth has to go somewhere once folk happy that sell off over 

I would like to be challenged on this as a stress test of my position would be good before i lose shirt off back.

[Lightscribe]

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm going to sell my Rolexes tomorrow if the price is right, it looks like Rolex Watches are in Bubble territory as well.

A 41mm Rolex Oyster Perpetual with a Turquoise dial retails for £4,850 and sells on the secondary market for around £28,000. 

My BLNR I sold way too soon as is my only investment regret (I did get all my Rolexes through Tesco clubcard points however so I can’t complain) that goes for £15-16k on the secondhand market now.

My Datejust II with white gold numerals and bezel is staying with me for my daughter.

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

My BLNR I sold way too soon as is my only investment regret (I did get all my Rolexes through Tesco clubcard points however so I can’t complain) that goes for £15-16k on the secondhand market now.

My Datejust II with white gold numerals and bezel is staying with me for my daughter.

I am going to sell my BLNR and a Rolex 16713 Root Beer.

Hopefully I can buy another couple back far cheaper in the BK, I doubt there will be many 4 and 5 year waiting lists at the Rolex authorised dealers going forward.

[stoobs]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

You can’t even light cash anymore when it becomes increasingly worthless to keep warm (maybe that was all part of the plan) 

Burning plastic to keep warm in Afghanistan

[Transistor Man]

16 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

4 as commodities go up and bonds and tech down, this turns into a frenzy of greed.  The hunter melt up. 

I would like to be challenged on this as a stress test of my position would be good before i lose shirt off back.

It’s just terminology, but The “melt up” that DH refers to, is a near term equity run-up I.e. S&P to 6000. 

Not the post-BK, commodities to the moon phase. 

[Axeman123]

In terms of how far the Fed can tighten before the wheels come off, here is an interesting take relating it to DXY/the dollar. If DHs dollar call plays out we may have longer to wait for the collapse in response to fed moves. This may also be what gives the fuel for the meltup before collapse.

 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is a warnign sign the top may be in sight soon or have passed.Clear echoes of Dec 99 for tech bubble historians when a few of the runners in that Bull run peaked.This fund has a lot of retail participation.

Plus this... The 'female Steve Jobs' (her own self styled description) - is found guilty of massive fraud. Her blood tester never worked, she knew it, her team of 'scientists' must have surely known it too. Anyway, maybe this is another example indicator of an end of tech sector cycle unwinding.                                                      https://www.businessinsider.com/theranos-founder-ceo-elizabeth-holmes-life-story-bio-2018-4?r=US&IR=T

[WICAO]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But does this include the brokers fee?...most brokers charge a minimum .30-.35% account fee, and then you have your OCF/TER on each ETF.

Yes it includes all wrapper fees such as ISA and SIPP broker fees.  It is possible to find wrapper and product combinations that result in wrapper fees being a fixed cost and not a % of assets held.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I've stolen this link from one of the covid threads. Not for the contents but Bloomberg's accompanying stats. Very telling and of interest here imo.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/repeat-booster-shots-risk-overloading-immune-system-ema-says

If you were an insider with access to vast amounts of low rate borrowing these two years have been a vast opportunity. Low rates, a pullback and a big rally. Much greater returns possible if you knew to buy Pfizer, Moderna and others.

What next? Sell, pay down some of the debt and buy oil, gas and gold? If BTC is going to be a thing long term (I don't know the answer to that and this isn't the thread for that debate) then buy that on a crash too.

[M S E Refugee]

27 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I've stolen this link from one of the covid threads. Not for the contents but Bloomberg's accompanying stats. Very telling and of interest here imo.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/repeat-booster-shots-risk-overloading-immune-system-ema-says

If you were an insider with access to vast amounts of low rate borrowing these two years have been a vast opportunity. Low rates, a pullback and a big rally. Much greater returns possible if you knew to buy Pfizer, Moderna and others.

What next? Sell, pay down some of the debt and buy oil, gas and gold? If BTC is going to be a thing long term (I don't know the answer to that and this isn't the thread for that debate) then buy that on a crash too.

I am in the same quandary after I sell my Watches.

I'm very tempted to pay a lump off my mortgage but I am very bullish on Thungela.