Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightscribe]

The unwinding of a 40 year disinflation cycle, the levelling up process will be catastrophic.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Sidd said:

Hi @DurhamBorn, but by your own basis if it is 35% undervalued are you not looking to add more miners at this stage?

Because im allocated nicely where i want to be.I dont chase the most profit now i try to keep balance.Im 50 and retired,my real aim is to die with exactly the capital i have now inflation adjusted.Its different to when i was 25 etc.I am watching several miners though and would add some more on any more pullbacks.Im also still happy to buy silver and will be.

[Funn3r]

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

hookers and coke to the end ........

[Spiney Norman]

5 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners.

What are PM's?

Spiney.

[leonardratso]

Just now, Spiney Norman said:

What are PM's?

Spiney.

precious metals

[Funn3r]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

precious metals

See I'm part of the problem now. I don't understand most of the thread acronyms and techspeak but I'm doing it myself. Sorry about that.

[Funn3r]

9 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hookers and coke to the end ........

If there was an easy way to do that I would (might.) I have no idea how to get fixed up with a hooker, or if I would want to when she turned up. Dark markets a bit easier for the other thing but has to be more to life shurely.

[Noallegiance]

45 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Another excellent episode from Pailsade Gold, apologies if already posted.

Talking Points From This Episode

- The consequences of poor decision-making.

- Nuclear, global energy concerns, and green energy.

- Natural gas, fertilizer, and higher food prices.

- Speculation in crypto, the risks, and concerns around Tether.

 

 

I listened to this earlier today.

Really smart chap.

[leonardratso]

if your really not so sure id go with the funds, the amalgamated stuff, its much cheaper to buy and sell, even free i think in HL, i like funds for this reason, they wont go to the moon like individual stocks can, but there again they usually dont bomb as hard either. Thats just a function of their spreading it out and weightings.

I know they arent liked much but ive been just throwing a little every month into fundsmiths T class accumulator, its leaning more towards faang stuff but its maanaged to make +120% in the last 18 to 24 months. Not a huge amount is in there but i do the same with PM/Oilers/Gas/energy funds as well, just trickle it in every month. Those are a sideline though for me, i do the individual stocks as well and some shitcoin.

 

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

If there was an easy way to do that I would (might.) I have no idea how to get fixed up with a hooker, or if I would want to when she turned up. Dark markets a bit easier for the other thing but has to be more to life shurely.

1.make sure you dont need that 50K for living off.

2.get on and do it, some will win, some will lose, hopefully winners>losers.

3.Dont bet the farm on 1 horse, spread it around like manure on a field.

4.sit back and wait, dont be tempted to fire everything back to cash cos some stuff went down 5-10-15-30%

eg. rockhopper, i went from +10% to -15% to -20% to +8% again now, not a huge amount but i didnt sell at the bottom at maximum loss, check out @M S E Refugee and his thungella journeys, ive done the same in the same stock as well, in big, top slice watch falls back in - staying in.

Its up to you.

[CVG]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

1.make sure you dont need that 50K for living off.

I'd add, clear any personal debt like credit cards and loans because they'll probably be costing more than you can make in returns

Perhaps have a look at some typical portfolios and think about what appeals/works for you.

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

[Lightscribe]

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/benefits-hike-should-be-doubled-to-protect-poorest-from-cost-of-living-surge-ifs-12514571

Bennies to the moon!

How best to invest… BATS and DGE?

[CannonFodder]

All good stuff above. Some other stuff.

Dont let it get to you, it can be an emotional roller coaster if you log in on day 2 and you are 10k down. Its all numbers.

Everyone has a few that go pop and a few that rocket, if your first share has an extreme result good or bad, dont mean they all do that. I need a minimum of 10 shares so i only lose 10 % if one goes pop, that  works for me

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing. Stick to good quality stocks 

Dont believe a word you see on a message board or written by a share journalists. 

Things take a long time, be prepared to wait years for things to happen

There are books menitionwd here on this thread which will help

 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/benefits-hike-should-be-doubled-to-protect-poorest-from-cost-of-living-surge-ifs-12514571

Bennies to the moon!

How best to invest… BATS and DGE?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59966752

 

 

[Loki]

  

8 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

  

8 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

  

8 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

 

Multiquotes for emphasis! 

BTW

Dont go near the AIM until you know what you are doing.

[Noallegiance]

53 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

I try to keep it at a wide perspective.

If this is the thread that's got your investing juices flowing then it's a long term investment decision. Distinctly different to a traders view.

If you believe the premise then buy a set of diversified stocks that may benefit from the coming cycle. Monitor. Skim. Reallocate within the space. Keep an eye on news events. But set your portfolio because you believe the mid-long macro vision.

That's not the same as buying stuff to triple in the next 20 months. Though some could and have.

Steady div payers in the right areas for the cycle is what it was about for me, with a few hundred £ in a couple of non div fun 'to the moon or bust' e.g. Avalon Advanced Materials, just in case.

Be prepared to look at red numbers and be fine with it.

NB. I was a complete novice and terrified of it 20 months ago.

[Democorruptcy]

On 11/01/2022 at 18:42, DurhamBorn said:

Id say gold is 35% undervalued,but i havent added any or miners for a long time.

It seems ridiculous that despite real yields being so negative the PMs haven't done better. I've been itching to buy for ages but it seems reality is being suspended.

[Xtal]

22 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I try to keep it at a wide perspective.

If this is the thread that's got your investing juices flowing then it's a long term investment decision. Distinctly different to a traders view.

If you believe the premise then buy a set of diversified stocks that may benefit from the coming cycle. Monitor. Skim. Reallocate within the space. Keep an eye on news events. But set your portfolio because you believe the mid-long macro vision.

That's not the same as buying stuff to triple in the next 20 months. Though some could and have.

Steady div payers in the right areas for the cycle is what it was about for me, with a few hundred £ in a couple of non div fun 'to the moon or bust' e.g. Avalon Advanced Materials, just in case.

Be prepared to look at red numbers and be fine with it.

NB. I was a complete novice and terrified of it 20 months ago.

Yes, I've learnt a massive amount from this thread, but if there's one thing above all else it's staying calm through day to day fluctuations.

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The unwinding of a 40 year disinflation cycle, the levelling up process will be catastrophic.

One of the things that frustrates me about the left is that, now that Awful Mr Trump has gone and Joe Biden is in charge, and the bloke who strangled George Floyd (PBUH) has been imprisoned, America is once again a utopia.

14% of a company's employees on the street is an absolutely shameful statistic.

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I've often seen this divergence as solely due to credit availability. Some people were able to access literally free money. Many weren't.

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

Spread your purchases over time. I'm sorry to say this, but the time to be getting balls deep in a day has come and gone. Now you must be patient, and that includes with your buying. Don't end up sitting there in a month's time, that £50k fully invested and down 15%, with no cash to make further, cheaper purchases.

[Axeman123]

Dave H not pussying about tonight! (also an interesting tweet from Alden)

[Lightscribe]

29 minutes ago, AWW said:

One of the things that frustrates me about the left is that, now that Awful Mr Trump has gone and Joe Biden is in charge, and the bloke who strangled George Floyd (PBUH) has been imprisoned, America is once again a utopia.

14% of a company's employees on the street is an absolutely shameful statistic.

They are in PTSD-denial-like state. The MSM managed to convince them all (psychologically brilliant) that a medical procedure was associated with a left/right wing political stance.

The vaccines haven’t worked by ‘following the science’ like they were led to believe and Biden didn’t swoop in and save the world from Trump like they so desperately hoped. They were ‘promised’ all these things.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a fan of any politician, no political policy at this stage could have stopped a 40 year cycle ending. He just made things worse, a lot worse. Maybe he was the fall guy after all.

Realisation is a bitch and inflation will be his lasting legacy which will be there to remind them for many years to come.

[Juniper]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

OK here's where the rubber meets the road, for me at least. About three years ago I opened an HL account with 1 pound after following this thread since ToS, then totally bottled any use of it. Finally this week got sick and tired of my cash ISA getting 0.01% and arranged to have it transferred to HL as a Stocks&Shares ISA. 

I'll add in a bit more cash so let's say 50K for now. I have been saving what I thought were notable posts from this thread exactly for a time like this and got some ideas. Basically telecoms, oil companies, PMs, and maybe a little bit miners. Not expecting or accepting Advice but any general suggestions welcome on how to get started. I'm not dead yet but no spring chicken so time horizons are shall we say "limited." 

Adding to what others have said, I started in 2020 with much less than you in an HL ISA. I guarantee that I’ve earned more from it than you have in interest on your £50k since then. So you don’t need to invest all straight away to make a difference. I still have a lot left in cash which I could have earned more on but I’m learning so I’m happy to go slow, and I know at some point another crash will come around and that’s when there’s real money to be made.

I found it terrifying and time consuming at first (constantly checking was I doing/had I done the right thing). But it only gets less terrifying and less mystifying when you start. It really isn’t as bad as ‘the professionals’ would make you believe as long as you are sensible and can stomach seeing red…which gets easier.

One note that I’d make about funds is that they take time to buy in/out of. As a novice by the time you’ve decided a market is definitely going down waiting another 2 days for your fund transaction to go through is tough. Individual share transactions are instant. I have a mix in my pension but only shares in my ISA because I’m happy taking more risk there.

I would say start but note that many are calling some level of crash this year. So go with ideas you believe in and leave some money on the table.