Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[wherebee]

27 minutes ago, harp said:

Wow! 

 

question is, is there a pullback coming and if so is it time to bank some more profits?

I'm now up 70% on Shell.  I've traded in and out of XOM and BP, reinvesting and buying more shares on the dips, but Shell shows the overall increase in value.

70% up is a hell of lot in a year and a bit.

I'm going to keep it and hold, I think.  I sense a cold, cold winter in Europe.

 

 

[CannonFodder]

52 minutes ago, harp said:

Wow! 

 

There is an oilfield in Kazakhstan called Tengiz that is being disrupted.

KAZATOMPROM also produces a silly amount of world.s uranium. 

Could get interesting if destabilisation continues

Dyor

Edit to add that Kaz is one of the largest opec + producers hence the revelence to Harp.s graph.

[CannonFodder]

@Cattle ProdCattle Prod - what are your thoughts on if Kaz.s 1.6 million bpd went astray? Mine is lift off in oil price and/or the West gets very friendly with Mr Putin to fix it.

I think it will shake the narrative of dependable spare capacity at least if this goes on for more than 2 weeks.

[Loki]

5 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

IF people have 10 minutes, encourage having a look at this 

It aligns with many of views of this thread but collates them in a somewhat different way

 

Is that Stefan Molyneux? 

[CannonFodder]

28 minutes ago, Loki said:

Is that Stefan Molyneux? 

Yes, i believe it is a shortened version of one of his vids. I dont follow his work that closely as his political views are not my own.

However he is anti-big state.

[Hardhat]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/07/sainsburys-pay-increase-store-staff-drivers-shop-workers

Wage rises for low paid workers...

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep, that about sums it up, nice to see these points out there in the wild finally. She's pretty good, that Tracy one. The key one is capex, as the MSM still don't understand the lag time to new production. It means a high price environement is nailed on for the next 7 years minimum. When participants finally realise this, there will be a massive rotation into the sector IMO. The oil inventory and OPEC spare capacity numbers are widely discussed now, so are in the price. And will cause fluctuations. But I think the market thinks it is short term. And the OPEC spare capacity numbers still look generous.

On the flip side, I'd like to see discussion of the dollar on EM oil demand, I can't understand why this is not discussed more.

Edit: I just noticed that there are 7 dropping dots on the capex graph, as I've been telling you guys. How much brains does it take to relate that to a ~7 year average for large oil and gas project start ups? 

A real tricky one atm converting these powerful fundamentals into price action.  I'm not adding to my holdings atm but will be looking for more purchases.  The weekly charts tend to be somewhat rudderless atm and several monthlies have hit overbought territory.  However their MACDs (both daily and monthly) look like they have room to run despite being overbought.  Looking back on a few charts maybe we get a "shake and vac" pullback before a run?  A few key support levels to retest?

Update:  No purchases for me atm as none came up in my weekly screen.

[Juniper]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

On the flip side, I'd like to see discussion of the dollar on EM oil demand, I can't understand why this is not discussed more.

I’m also interested in how the dollar amplifies the situation.

If the dollar stays strong and the oil price keeps rising because of supply issues then what gives? Does the Fed have to put even more liquidity into the system in this situation and will tapering therefore be a big mistake that breaks the camel’s back? How much demand destruction is possible even in EMs without lockdowns?

I have many more questions than answers!

[Harley]

Love it when a system hits a home run.....

Helps make up for the baduns!  Maybe I might even keep up with some of you!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I should caveat that that by saying some majors have become more sensitive about bringing their expats home in a conflict since In Amenas. Though afaik ENI was content to stay put in Libya for most of that war. I'll watch with interest.

Bah, par for the course, as an old brat I've through three coups and a few sharp exits.  

[DoINeedOne]

Most traded stocks in 2021 on Degiro

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Bah, par for the course, as an old brat I've through three coups and a few sharp exits.  

Should be "oil brat".  Only now I'm an "old brat"!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

I was buzzing with hope for macbeth ...now this news pops up this evening:

 

"British Gas owner appoints Amber Rudd as a director"

 

What has this useless ex gov-muppet got, skillswise to help turn around CNA?

 

FookALL...time to bail on Monday morning?!... what do YOU reckon @DurhamBorn and folks here?

 

They should appoint @Cattle Prod as CEO and me as finance director, we'd turn CNA around in 18 months, the share price would be over £4 quid, why are ya ?

we would do a far superior job than that incompetent gov nitwit!

 

Let's hope the CNA board does NOT take any advice from this moron, otherwise I worry macbeth...will be back down hill in ...bear territory!

(rant over, btw, bear pic copyright @nirvana)

 

 

 

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

(rant over, btw, bear pic copyright @nirvana)

nice one dude! off to bed, feeling a bit sore today after being 'bummed' by my broker yet again.......I'll get the fukker next week 

[Lightscribe]

@sancho panza as a fellow emergency services worker, history will vindicate us 😉
 

 

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I was buzzing with hope for macbeth ...now this news pops up this evening:

 

"British Gas owner appoints Amber Rudd as a director"

 

What has this useless ex gov-muppet got, skillswise to help turn around CNA?

 

FookALL...time to bail on Monday morning?!... what do YOU reckon @DurhamBorn and folks here?

 

They should appoint @Cattle Prod as CEO and me as finance director, we'd turn CNA around in 18 months, the share price would be over £4 quid, why are ya ?

we would do a far superior job than that incompetent gov nitwit!

 

Let's hope the CNA board does NOT take any advice from this moron, otherwise I worry macbeth...will be back down hill in ...bear territory!

(rant over, btw, bear pic copyright @nirvana)

 

 

 

Even that horrible excuse of a woman cant trump the fundamentals going their way.

“Fair is foul, and foul is fair”

Act 1 Scene 1 The Scottish Play.

[JimmyTheBruce]

56 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I was buzzing with hope for macbeth ...now this news pops up this evening:

 

"British Gas owner appoints Amber Rudd as a director"

 

What has this useless ex gov-muppet got, skillswise to help turn around CNA?

 

FookALL...time to bail on Monday morning?!... what do YOU reckon @DurhamBorn and folks here?

 

They should appoint @Cattle Prod as CEO and me as finance director, we'd turn CNA around in 18 months, the share price would be over £4 quid, why are ya ?

we would do a far superior job than that incompetent gov nitwit!

 

Let's hope the CNA board does NOT take any advice from this moron, otherwise I worry macbeth...will be back down hill in ...bear territory!

(rant over, btw, bear pic copyright @nirvana)

 

 

 

"Scott Wheway, Centrica’s chairman, said she would bring a “wealth of real-world experience in energy”"

Oh the irony.

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

@sancho panza as a fellow emergency services worker, history will vindicate us 😉
 

 

That is absolute gold.  Notice the group of people that he originally addressed his question to, anticipating that they would never stray off script.  Notice also, having been spoken to calmly and rationally and being unable to offer anything sensible in return, how he (not so) subtly denigrates the expertise of the medic at the very end.

I think we may have managed to move on from the earlier political segue, but my point stands.  Utter, utter arrogant cunt.

[reformed nice guy]

The American 30 year bond is creeping up..... thats a good sign isnt it?

[Loki]

I almost feel like i should set up a GoFundMe for them!

[CannonFodder]

I hear some of their new joiners have friends in government, they will be fine ...

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

WTI hit 80 this morning, a visible milestone is nothing else. Brent 82.5; a less visible milestone.

This is on top of covid worries on reduced demand; that worry will go as covid runs through or we move to summer if nothing else. Oil should get a tailwind from here.

Looks like it will be high oil prices leading into trouble again as it ever was with a braking effect on economy.

thanks for the chart SP, perhaps time to sell my EQNR and redeploy

 

Just to re emphasize this point as I've been having discussions about possibly selling some underperforming oilies.

Five year chart,last proper visit to $80 brent was Sept 19.

you can see BP and RDSB still way off the herd.We have chunky postions in them so I can't really sell Total to buy more but tempted by a decent size options punt at 400 for June July

CVX/EQNR back at par,Total down 15%,BP down 38%!!! Looney ain't that bad.

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

UK inflation is going to be a small sideshow - 

Inflation hits new eurozone record as energy and food prices soar

Surprise increase to 5% piles pressure on ECB to speed up stimulus scaleback

https://www.ft.com/content/14d1e3f5-5131-4f0f-8e57-228810898b8f

 

Eurozone inflation rose to 5 per cent in December, setting a fresh record high since the single currency was created more than two decades ago and raising doubts over how quickly price pressures will ease this year. Driven by soaring energy and food prices, annual price growth in the euro area — as measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices — outstripped the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who had on average predicted a 4.7 per cent rise, slightly down from 4.9 per cent in November. The surprise increase is likely to put pressure on the European Central Bank to reduce its monetary stimulus quicker than planned. Although most economists expect inflation to begin to ebb from January onwards, it is forecast to remain above the ECB’s 2 per cent target for much of this year.

Over to you wrinkly.

 

"The surprise increase"  - surprise to whom??

 

And yet the ECB will continue sitting on its hands, as the ECB can only sit on its hands: Club Med cannot afford market rates of interest.

 

Germany & The Frugals will have to endure a decade of inflation - poetic symmetry for Club Med having endured a decade of austerity.

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Upton

 

8 MINUTES AGO

(Edited)

 

reply In reply to Upton

Delving into the details - not reported by the FT, oddly - the disaggregated data really shows why the eurozone 'one-size-fits-all' policy is problematic:

 

Estonia 12.0%

Lithuania 10.7%

Portugal 2.8%

Malta 2.6%

 

How can one monetary policy be appropriate for all 19 divergent countries?

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Britannia Insula Avallonis

 

5 MINUTES AGO

 

reply In reply to Upton

25 years ago it seemed more relevant when you had to change many hard cash currencies crossing borders, but the rise of card payments that can do multiple currencies at different rates take away this once useful advantage of the single currency.

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SpeakingUp

 

23 MINUTES AGO

 

““This should be the peak,” said Carsten Brzeski, head of global macro research at ING”…repeating what he and every other economist have been saying each month despite continually being proved wrong. 

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Inishkea Islands Atlanticist

 

26 MINUTES AGO

(Edited)

 

Fear not!

 

For, “Inflation is always and everywhere a transitory phenomenon”. 

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Upton

 

19 MINUTES AGO

 

reply In reply to Inishkea Islands Atlanticist

'transitory', 'temporary', will moderate', 'base effects', 'probably peaked', 'a hump'

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HMS Amethyst

 

21 MINUTES AGO

 

And the Omicron disruption will push inflation higher still. Until we get through the worst of Covid, and accept that we are going to have to live with it, we aren’t going to find out how high core inflation truly is, let alone work out how to effectively respond to it. 

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BWKent

 

5 MINUTES AGO

 

reply In reply to HMS Amethyst

There'll be certain Governments that want the pandemic to continue so they can do things and talk stuff that takes people's mind off the high inflation.

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DUNJA

 

11 MINUTES AGO

 

Still think people are underestimating how bad the economic consequences of shutting down society on and off for 2 years is going to be. 

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Lando Calrissian

 

17 MINUTES AGO

 

Brexit brexit brexit- don't say you weren't warned

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OnTheDSLR

 

3 MINUTES AGO

 

The credibility of the ECB has been utterly decimated (before people bring Brexit into it, so has the BoE’s).

 

The response to continually predicting incorrect forecasts, inflation exceeding every expectation on a monthly basis, and the highest levels in the currencies history, is that the ECB will continue purchasing billions worth of bonds for at least a quarter of the year, and commit to no rate rises. 

 

When people predicted that the ECB was trapped before it was an uncertain hypothesis, now you’ll struggle to find anyone daring to say the opposite. 

I remember asking this of my European rellies back in the late 90's when everyone knew Italy weren't cooking the books to get into the EZ.

How can you have one monetary policy for 17 countries?Good question.

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

@sancho panza as a fellow emergency services worker, history will vindicate us 😉
 

 

That's a super clip.It's quite telling at the start that none of the nurses want to say anythign.Although Kings can boast a 90% vaxx rate,how much of that has been achieved by bullying?

I wish we could see Javid's face at the end.Probably clueless as to what to say to someone who actually has some high level medical qualifications.

As soon as the current crop of the Westminster elite meet real people,they struggle to hold their own.Clueless in so many ways.

Javid's probably easier to replace than the Doc....

[Harley]

13 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

....time to bail on Monday morning?!

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/mar/24/energy-secretary-electric-shock-eu-referendum-brexit

Only 6% more to go and I'm out!

[planit]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Just to re emphasize this point as I've been having discussions about possibly selling some underperforming oilies.

Five year chart,last proper visit to $80 brent was Sept 19.

you can see BP and RDSB still way off the herd.We have chunky postions in them so I can't really sell Total to buy more but tempted by a decent size options punt at 400 for June July

CVX/EQNR back at par,Total down 15%,BP down 38%!!! Looney ain't that bad.

 

Buybacks are beautiful when there is at least a 30% undervaluation

[Juniper]

Making me laugh this morning…but tragically sums up the situation with oil