Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

41 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Very true, one of my father.s retired friends rewired his house ( retired electrician) but then needed someone to certify to have the paperwork should he ever need to sell the house. To be able to point to a trading electrician installing to latest regs. 

Yeah one of my best mates is a sparky. His Dad was a sparky (and everything else so much so he could probably build a house single handed).

My mate now gets his retired Dad to sign off leccy installs.

[reformed nice guy]

It always horrifies me when children inherit a house from their parents then chuck out everything their dad had in the garage. Jam jars full of nails or bolts, the one bit of wood used to stir paint over a 40 year period, unused spare dowels or pins from previously assembled furniture all sent to the tip. Its a disgrace. Our ancestors knew it was worth keeping all those bits and pieces, and often couldnt afford the luxury of ringing a plumber when a leak was found. Do it yourself was the norm not a hobby. Its sad to see the shift in culture

[Formerly]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Give soldering a go, its easy once you get the hang of it, 10 times cheaper too.

If you are a tradesman you cant really get away with pushfits unless its out of sight, as a plumber you are judged by your soldered pipework.

Congrats on the dishwasher still, well done.

In the trade that's called "a builders flush".

I've done a fair bit of plumbing using push fits, but will try soldering on the next substantial job. I guess the biggest outlay would be the blow torch. I could do with one anyway for loosening seized bolts on cars.

My experience with plumbers has been terrible. I've employed them for 4 jobs in my life and every job has had to be at least partially re-done to fix leaks.
The government says you have to employ these guys to work on gas, but they can't even stop water going where it shouldn't!

[manservantjerkins]

 

 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Whilst its not a competition i can beat that

While it's not a competition, a new one of these costs £1700... +VAT!

 

A new resistor cost pennies:

I know everyone likes to complain about electronics making modern cars irreparable for the home mechanic, but really it's just a new skillset you need to learn.

[DoINeedOne]

6 minutes ago, AWW said:

While it's not a competition, a new one of these costs £1700... +VAT!

 

A new resistor cost pennies:

I know everyone likes to complain about electronics making modern cars irreparable for the home mechanic, but really it's just a new skillset you need to learn.

You win

[invalid]

16 minutes ago, Formerly said:

I've done a fair bit of plumbing using push fits, but will try soldering on the next substantial job. I guess the biggest outlay would be the blow torch. I could do with one anyway for loosening seized bolts on cars.

My experience with plumbers has been terrible. I've employed them for 4 jobs in my life and every job has had to be at least partially re-done to fix leaks.
The government says you have to employ these guys to work on gas, but they can't even stop water going where it shouldn't!

 

I had a bit of work done by a plumber who boasted about being British Gas trained. Perhaps at one time this would have been a good thing.

Anyway, he massively over tightened a compression fitting on a kickspace heater and in my opinion used way, way too much ptfe tape, a massive thick wedge of it. The heat and expansion of it being run for the first time was enough to then cause the nut to crack and then the joint leaking. The leak was only noticed when the boiler pressure dropped enough for it stop working.

Didn't bother getting him back as I thought if he can't even tighten a nut properly I'll do it myself. That was 10 years ago and no leaks since.

 

And a quick one for anyone who employs a window cleaner. 15 years ago I sacked our window cleaner, mainly after he knocked some astragals off and never owned up to it. He used to change £7 a clean and the cheeky bugger would come around every month. He would disappear in the winter. So lets say 9 visits a year at £63 a year. He was always paid cash so not sure how much made its way to the taxman.

So I bought a water fed pole and do the windows myself twice a year. I use rain water from a water butt and found the results to be fine. The trick seems to be making sure the windows are well rinsed and only using water that has collected from a prolonged downpour.

Something like this for £60 on amazon. 1 year payback.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Window-Cleaning-Brush-Equipment-Cleaner/dp/B09H3BWTR4/ref=sr_1_27?crid=EU9W7YD8BQLR&keywords=water+fed+pole&qid=1641477439&sprefix=water+fed+pole%2Caps%2C66&sr=8-27

 

[CannonFodder]

I.ve managed to fix both tumble dryer and separate washing machine now. 

Thought i give both a bash when each stopped working. the amount of knowledge on youtube and forums and a day of fiddling to identify issue and order parts. Learned a lot.

I do think we are exceptionally tight though. Many people wont bother.

 

[Funn3r]

14 hours ago, Starsend said:

Interesting, I saw a program recently that reckoned much of the world's potash came from Morocco.

Or was it hummus...

Might have mis-heard pot and hash?

[AyrshireBoy]

19 hours ago, Hancock said:

GJGB, which has silver miners in.

Decided I wanted a bit more risk than physical so went for half in GJGB and half in Orange SA. Slowly trying to build a decent portfolio.

[macca]

On 04/01/2022 at 22:12, Hancock said:

Look i'm happy to call people out on other threads, but this one is a cut above. Plenty of other places on this website to debate Labour, Corbyn and all manner of cunts.

It's funny you call corbyn a "crooked commie loser"

If you follow him on socials he is against war, came out against vaccine passports and voted against any government control over its peoples rights.

re nationalisation of corrupt water and energy sectors hardly makes him a crooked Commie.

water companies are £24 billion in debt, they have paid out 36.5 billion in dividends since privatisation and wash money through tax havens. Our rivers, streams and coast are pumped full of shit for greater corperation profits.

Corbyn wanted to stop the rot so the billionaire owned media lable him a Commie..

and judging by your likes for that post, it worked.. 

 

This is meant to be a forum for critical thinking.. Not repeating billionaire owned media propaganda.

follow the man on socials and you will find he is a decent bloke who actually cares about people. He could be the best leader we never had.. Tories have not finished fucking the country to death yet. 

[sancho panza]

On 02/01/2022 at 10:00, AWW said:

They can only do this if you accept it. My current landlord threatened to evict me if I didn't sign a 1-year contract extension (we're not planning on staying for a full year).  I refused and said I'll continue to pay the rent and will give 2 months notice before leaving, take me to court if you want me out; no judge is going to evict a family from a place they've lived in for yonks, always paid the rent, "have nowhere else to go", because the LL wants to lock them into a new contract.

UK renters have a lot more power than most of them realise. It might not be enshrined in your contract, but you could cause your landlord a lot of grief if you were that way inclined.

and @MrXxxx

quick point re eviction.We've been renting for years and never really had issues with rent rises,depsite being in some places for 5 years.Bascially,LL's voids overrrides any financial benefit from a rent rise.we've jsut moved and even with some firends of ours lined up for the hosue the LL is down a month's rent,possibly 6 weeks.Even nice hosues can attract a 3 month void due to circumstance,failed applications.

On the issue of eviction,a little known fact is that LL's can only recover some £250 or so of their eviction costs which can run into £1000's of pounds.

[JMD]

On 05/01/2022 at 10:37, CannonFodder said:

I agree with your entire post in case this reply comes across as not.

perhaps my view is darker.

The paradigm will change, money will be found in new ways. 

Say road charging?. How about 10p a mile or 20p on motorway. Yummy! It can replace fuel duty as that being dented by EVs

All those people working at home; not paying for a commute, hardy fair on low waged retail workers, perhaps this wfh should become a benefit in kind. Taxy taxy or back to the office plebs, fill that hole in rail budgets.

High Inflation and capital gains tax working together works wonders. 18 percent or 28 percent of all asset inflation including blt housing will be confiscated either on sale or on death through iht rather than cgt. 

So if a btl house doubles nominally through inflation, not a real gain. 9 or 14 percent (half value) of housing equity is removed from citizens ownership when they sell. A different amount if they die first. Iht thresholds kept low, the trap is set. Most people.s worth in housing.

Tough times ahead comrade, should primary residence be cgt exempt, especially mansions. On with a threshold of first 600k and let inflation do its work. Its to save the nhs innit.

Essentially they will squeeze harder. People will need the overtime to live so work longer hours and pass their assets to government through inflqtion being taxed and iht.

A desparate government still has an imagination.

Well if I were a desperate and imaginative government I'd give council's more powers to put charges on care residents homes for social care costs. This is already done by some council's, however care costs are rising and more staff must be hired at better wages.                                                                                                                          As for the NHS waiting list crisis I think this emergency situation will allow the recent NI increase to be 'conveniently expanded', though if being especially imaginative I'd also allow individuals to make top-up payments into the tax system, which would pay for the private medical sector to step in and alleviate the immediate pressure (for those who have topped up their tax). The idea here would be for more and more health benefits to be directed at those who can pay, while removing same from the benefit class. ...A template for the future perhaps? But as I've said before this whole covid pantomime will provide all kinds of convenient political cover for TPTB to make all manner of changes, some good changes and some bad of course, but all being done from a position of a massive lie which is the part that really scares me (oh that and 'imaginative' governments!, that is a truly terrifying concept!!).

[DurhamBorn]

33 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

I had a bit of work done by a plumber who boasted about being British Gas trained. Perhaps at one time this would have been a good thing.

Anyway, he massively over tightened a compression fitting on a kickspace heater and in my opinion used way, way too much ptfe tape, a massive thick wedge of it. The heat and expansion of it being run for the first time was enough to then cause the nut to crack and then the joint leaking. The leak was only noticed when the boiler pressure dropped enough for it stop working.

Didn't bother getting him back as I thought if he can't even tighten a nut properly I'll do it myself. That was 10 years ago and no leaks since.

 

And a quick one for anyone who employs a window cleaner. 15 years ago I sacked our window cleaner, mainly after he knocked some astragals off and never owned up to it. He used to change £7 a clean and the cheeky bugger would come around every month. He would disappear in the winter. So lets say 9 visits a year at £63 a year. He was always paid cash so not sure how much made its way to the taxman.

So I bought a water fed pole and do the windows myself twice a year. I use rain water from a water butt and found the results to be fine. The trick seems to be making sure the windows are well rinsed and only using water that has collected from a prolonged downpour.

Something like this for £60 on amazon. 1 year payback.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Window-Cleaning-Brush-Equipment-Cleaner/dp/B09H3BWTR4/ref=sr_1_27?crid=EU9W7YD8BQLR&keywords=water+fed+pole&qid=1641477439&sprefix=water+fed+pole%2Caps%2C66&sr=8-27

 

I do the same with windows.Wash them twice a year,i just get my big hose out  ,though since i got my big ladders i have started going up once a year and cleaning my facias and gutters as well.I need to go up and fix the end of the gutter though,i shot at a magpie with my gun but missed and instead put a hole in the gutter,luckily my partner wasnt in. 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

I do the same with windows.Wash them twice a year,i just get my big hose out  ,though since i got my big ladders i have started going up once a year and cleaning my facias and gutters as well.I need to go up and fix the end of the gutter though,i shot at a magpie with my gun but missed and instead put a hole in the gutter,luckily my partner wasnt in. 

Good man, I was looking at Larsen traps the other day, I can't stand the effing things

[sancho panza]

On 02/01/2022 at 16:20, Joxer said:

Another question for you. If the landlord has served you section 21 notice after the tenancy has gone monthly periodic does the tenant still need to give a months notice or can they just leave anytime they want (presuming the rent has been paid accordingly)

Yes you do

On 02/01/2022 at 21:06, spygirl said:

You are now entering legal and fiscal hell.

This is why you should not be leveraged up snd renting at sub 4% yields.

Do, you go to court, where even serious criminal cases are 2 years behind.

You are not going to get before a judge within 12 months.

 

 

Seen it.Painful lesson for some newbie LL's .Seen one guy I know who only had two rentals,both had non payers,so legal fees plus rental losses probsbly over £10k in total.WOuld be even more now with court backlog

On 03/01/2022 at 08:04, MrXxxx said:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/china-evergrande-shares-halt-trading-2022-01-03/

The Black Swan event for the BK that we have been waiting for?

Northern rock went pop spet 2007 and Bear Sterns Mar 08 iirc.There's time on the clock yet I reckon

On 03/01/2022 at 12:57, DurhamBorn said:

Problem on REITs is the debt.They mostly have 40% to 50% LTV so if rates double it could wipe out half their free cash flow.Id want to know exactly how much and also the bond structure.Some have all their debt in one or two bonds,hugely risky.

Think the income is the issue with shops and offices being empty.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Good man, I was looking at Larsen traps the other day, I can't stand the effing things

Crafty fuckers though.Along with the local cats they kill all the young birds etc around here every year.When we were kids we used to take all the magpies eggs,covered in thorns though after as they were nearly always at the top of a hawthorn bush.Never saw them venture into towns then unlike now.My gran used to leave meat out for them,she said best not to upset the devils bird,they know everything.

[feed]

20 minutes ago, macca said:

follow the man on socials and you will find he is a decent bloke who actually cares about people. He could be the best leader we never had.. Tories have not finished fucking the country to death yet. 

Running Corbyn against May was a good idea.  The Conservatives were weak, May was particularly weak and the liberals democrats were absent.

It was probably a once in a generation opportunity to get a Labour leader in.   I don’t think he would have lasted all that long, all sides would have attacked him.  Not left enough for the leftists, hard left for anyone else, constrained by the civil service and attacked by the Media. But still, that’s all irrelevant as he lost.

But running him against Boris after losing to May was insanity.  The reason that the Conservatives have the majority that have, is due to the massive turnout as people voted against Corbyn.   Maybe if he’d stood down after losing to May and allowed the Labour party to reform into something that could challenge the 2019 election, then there would be an opposition party with some influence, but instead we have the lame duck that sees fit to vote with the government.  

But still keep on about evil Tories and how Corbyn would have saved us all and that way absolutely nothing will change.
 

[MrXxxx]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I need to go up and fix the end of the gutter though,i shot at a magpie with my gun but missed and instead put a hole in the gutter

I think that's what they call karma! :-)))

[leonardratso]

hahaha, again with the romantic actions, proper mills and boon involving big hoses and shooting birds and guttering, actually might be more carry on than mills and boon.

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

I don't think of it as robbing the taxman because that leads to the presumption that the fruits of all of our labour is the taxman's who then gives us some scraps of it for our efforts.  Instead I think of it as everything I earn is mine and my job is to give as little of it away to everyone as possible, including the taxman.

I agree completely, it just feels better to think that they're getting robbed for a change 

[JMD]

On 05/01/2022 at 11:28, DurhamBorn said:

The macro is that the economy cant produce enough for the demands on it.That was mentioned on my fist post in the thread i think as where we were going,well we have now arrived.Too much is being consumed by scroungers,both working and not,mainly the state.They are now at the first stage of what happens when the inflection point is reached.They try to tax more,hand out more where the media squeal etc.That then makes the problem worse and inflation keeps going higher.

What will happen is people will live different lives and structural changes will happen.More people per house for starters,more things shared.The more you do for yourself (of for each other unwaged) the less links in a chain to tax or pay tax.

Money should spend the cycle coming out of growth assets,bonds and houses and going to the de-complex areas.

DB, you mention the advantages of doing things for each other unwaged - I'd agree - but it also got me thinking more broadly about why I've not heard of any 'local currency' scheme in the UK that has developed their currency idea futher by utilising crypto... perhaps there aren't any, however I'm thinking that the MSM wouldn't cover a crypto 'good news' story?!                                                                                                                                TimebankUK for example is the only nationally run/operating alternative/local currency I know of, but many of these types of scheme suffer from admin overhead and which prevents them from expanding (so again seems a no brainer to me that crypto might be a solution).                                                                                                      DB I'd be really interested in yours, and others thoughts, on whether such currency schemes (not necessarily crytpo ones) might offer individuals the opportunity to 'opt out of the system', stop paying tax, etc? Only I've not seen the general topic of local currencies discussed on the thread before in terms of them empowering people and independence.                                                                                          https://timebanking.org/

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

So I've never fixed a mixer tap before, last time I fixed a tap it was a simple brass and washer jobby. I thought they were valved and wouldn't drip, but mine started dripping the other day. So one short youtube video later I find out you can get these little cylinder thingies for £4.67:

All I needed tools wise was a screwdriver for the isolation valve, a T8 bit for the hidden screws, and an adjustible spanner. I had all these. Took about 45 mins, including trying to find out how to turn the water off, and drop down to Screwfix. There is ceramic in them for some reason, and one had a crack. Hence the drip.

I reckon this would have cost £150 to call out a plumber. No slight on them, everyone needs a plumber and it's just supply and demand, though @sancho panza it seems to be money for old rope...

So what did this cost HMRC, more importantly?

I'd have to earn about £270 to pay for that, and pay them £108 in income tax, plus £11 in NI and £37 in employers NI. Then the plumber would probably have to pay 40% marginal tax on his £145.33, say £58, plus whatever he pays in NI. That totals up about £214!! They got 77p in VAT instead.

That's quite an eye opener, and shows how the working middle funds the whole country really. If the middle 30m people in this country did three of those jobs a year, that'd be about £19bn in lost tax reveune. More realisticaly if even 3m people did three jobs a year, thats still quite a hit to tax revenue. I guess this is why there is a point where raising taxes doesn't get any more into the coffers, and they'd do well to remember this.

Last year the fan on the fan assisted oven stopped working, the Mrs contacted an oven repair man while I was at work who told her £200. I told her if he fixed it SHE was paying. Ordered a new fan online it was delivered 2 days later and cost £15, took me a about 35 minutes to remove the old fan and fit the new one.

 Couple of months later the top element stopped working in the same oven, oven repair man told the Mrs £150, I told her SHE can pay. Ordered a new element online for £22 and it arrived 3 days later, took about 30 minutes to remove the old element and fit the replacement element.

Have sorted quite a bit of plumbing in the kitchen since we moved it. I like denying HMRC access to my money when I get the opportunity do so.

[JMD]

On 05/01/2022 at 14:38, HousePriceMania said:

Here's a young lad collecting on his UBI

 

They're enslaving a nation and still people clap.

Yes, but it's not the crappy clapping that worries me. It's the government enforced worship (beatification?) of the NHS and of education... Sectors which totalitarians have typically enjoyed pulling the strings of in order to make the public dance to their tune. 

[Hancock]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What shares though,

The whole shebang