Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Joxer]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

No sorry, I didn't explain that very clearly. As you say at the moment an S21 is a 'No fault' possession, and so no reason has to be given. That said, the government have been discussing a repeal of the S21, and so to allow a landlord to give notice mid-tenancy by citing these reasons under a S8 eviction.

Another question for you. If the landlord has served you section 21 notice after the tenancy has gone monthly periodic does the tenant still need to give a months notice or can they just leave anytime they want (presuming the rent has been paid accordingly)

[MrXxxx]

16 minutes ago, Joxer said:

Another question for you. If the landlord has served you section 21 notice after the tenancy has gone monthly periodic does the tenant still need to give a months notice or can they just leave anytime they want (presuming the rent has been paid accordingly)

OK I am not a lawyer so as always Do Your Own Research, but this is my understanding. You ask an interesting question, and one that I thought about myself.

Scenario ; The tenancy has become monthly periodic as a) the landlord [or his agent] hasn't produced another 6 month [or longer] Assured Shorthold Tenancy, and b) you pay monthly. Unlike prior to the contract period [pre-periodic tenancy], the landlord now has to give you two months notice, whereas you still only have to give him one. We will assume you pay a month in advance, and your payment day is the first of the month.

So, the landlord would usually serve you a S21 one day [or more also see * below] before your final required two month notice period, so say he/she wanted you out on 31st Dec 2021, he/she would have to serve you the S21 on the 31st Oct 2021 or earlier...if he served it on 01 Nov 2021 he would have to wait until the 31st Jan 2022 before you leave. In addition, if he hadn't fulfilled his legal duties properly as a landlord i.e. protected you deposit, given you an up-to-date gas certificate etc the S21 process would be invalid until he addressed these matters, and then he would have to start the whole two month notice again.

Alongside this, if say for example he hadn't protected your deposit you could then claim up to three times the deposit value for each contract where he failed to do this i.e. if he [or the agent] got you to sign two 6 month AST's you could claim up to 3 times each deposit [6x deposit assuming it was same sum] AND get the deposits returned as well; I say UP TO 3 times for each offence as this is up to the judges discretion i.e if he thinks the landlord [or his agent] has been particularly negligent or uncooperative he is likely to give 3 x, whereas likewise if he thinks you have tried to be slightly cunning/awkward/uncooperative he is likely to only rule 1 x; legally he has to give at least 1 times as the offence has been committed so a penalty has to be applied.

Now to what I think was you original question. If the landlord has followed everything correctly you are duty bound to pay up until the end of your periodic tenancy i.e. Dec 31st 2021 even if you vacate before UNLESS the landlord agrees to release you earlier. If you think about it it makes sense, as if you were to offer your one months required notice after he had issued his two months notice you would be required to give notice on 30 Nov 2021 [one day before your new month begins on 01st Dec 2021] to vacate on the 31st Dec 2021.

A really helpful site for this is Shelter [https://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_advice/private_renting].

* Some landlords/agents serve the S21 'Notice to quit' at the beginning of your tenancy, that way they are covered if someone forgets to issue it at a later date, and if they want to keep you as a tenant the just need to either a)issue a new 6 month tenancy or b) let it run on thus becoming a Periodic tenancy. This said, the Housing Act 1988 was revised in 2015 and this 'loop hole' may have been addressed.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

In practice evictions are taking around 2 years to go through the court system at the moment, so in a sense saying "I will just keep paying the old rent" would give you a huge grace period to move out. Even before "the bug" people were routinely getting 12+ months rent free by just waiting for the system to run it's course. Based on watching bailiff TV shows "Professional bad tennants" willing to poor sand in the gears of the system with vexatious claims of disrepair etc could stretch that even further. There has to be a moral component to one's conduct though, some landlords are regular people. Keeping them honest is fair enough, but some landlords on those TV shows actually had my sympathy (assuming they sold up as soon as they regained posession).

Ironically a landlord seeking eviction via the legal route would be well advised to do all repairs and have safety checks etc up to date, or risk jeopardising their case. For some of them this will be a novel experience!

...and it makes you wonder why anyone would be a BTL landlord for the current small returns [unless of course you got in years ago, and so should have sold out by now]?...far less hassle and far more liquid in S&S.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

...and it makes you wonder why anyone would be a BTL landlord for the current small returns [unless of course you got in years ago, and so should have sold out by now]?...far less hassle and far more liquid in S&S.

Because they can leverage £50k and then own a house in 20 years time ... or if a 200k house goes up by 20% then they'll make £40k in a couple of years ... unlikely to get those return from S&S.

Banks don't lend money to people to speculate on the stock market, as it'd create an epic bubble and they'd lose their money. (as should happen with their housing bubble lending)

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

OK I am not a lawyer so as always Do Your Own Research, but this is my understanding. You ask an interesting question, and one that I thought about myself.

Scenario ; The tenancy has become monthly periodic as a) the landlord [or his agent] hasn't produced another 6 month [or longer] Assured Shorthold Tenancy, and b) you pay monthly. Unlike prior to the contract period [pre-periodic tenancy], the landlord now has to give you two months notice, whereas you still only have to give him one. We will assume you pay a month in advance, and your payment day is the first of the month.

So, the landlord would usually serve you a S21 one day [or more also see * below] before your final required two month notice period, so say he/she wanted you out on 31st Dec 2021, he/she would have to serve you the S21 on the 31st Oct 2021 or earlier...if he served it on 01 Nov 2021 he would have to wait until the 31st Jan 2022 before you leave. In addition, if he hadn't fulfilled his legal duties properly as a landlord i.e. protected you deposit, given you an up-to-date gas certificate etc the S21 process would be invalid until he addressed these matters, and then he would have to start the whole two month notice again.

Alongside this, if say for example he hadn't protected your deposit you could then claim up to three times the deposit value for each contract where he failed to do this i.e. if he [or the agent] got you to sign two 6 month AST's you could claim up to 3 times each deposit [6x deposit assuming it was same sum] AND get the deposits returned as well; I say UP TO 3 times for each offence as this is up to the judges discretion i.e if he thinks the landlord [or his agent] has been particularly negligent or uncooperative he is likely to give 3 x, whereas likewise if he thinks you have tried to be slightly cunning/awkward/uncooperative he is likely to only rule 1 x; legally he has to give at least 1 times as the offence has been committed so a penalty has to be applied.

Now to what I think was you original question. If the landlord has followed everything correctly you are duty bound to pay up until the end of your periodic tenancy i.e. Dec 31st 2021 even if you vacate before UNLESS the landlord agrees to release you earlier. If you think about it it makes sense, as if you were to offer your one months required notice after he had issued his two months notice you would be required to give notice on 30 Nov 2021 [one day before your new month begins on 01st Dec 2021] to vacate on the 31st Dec 2021.

A really helpful site for this is Shelter [https://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_advice/private_renting].

* Some landlords/agents serve the S21 'Notice to quit' at the beginning of your tenancy, that way they are covered if someone forgets to issue it at a later date, and if they want to keep you as a tenant the just need to either a)issue a new 6 month tenancy or b) let it run on thus becoming a Periodic tenancy. This said, the Housing Act 1988 was revised in 2015 and this 'loop hole' may have been addressed.

Theres a lot of wishful LL thinking on s21.

One, you've got to make sure you've run the tenancy legally. Not a big hurdle but beyond majority of LL.

Ok, you are squeaky legal. You serve a s21. 2 months pass and .... tenant still there.

You are now entering legal and fiscal hell.

This is why you should not be leveraged up snd renting at sub 4% yields.

Do, you go to court, where even serious criminal cases are 2 years behind.

You are not going to get before a judge within 12 months.

 

 

[MrXxxx]

Thought I would post this figure as it gives a nice overview of the markets in the past year/Q4...also help bring the thread 'back on subject' as I was guilty of leading it off line :-)

Source article https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2021-12-31/

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Thought I would post this figure as it gives a nice overview of the markets in the past year/Q4...also help bring the thread 'back on subject' as I was guilty of leading it off line :-)

Source article https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2021-12-31/

Dis-inflation loving under performing,inflation lovely out performing.YEN looks interesting though,or Jap stocks.

[MrXxxx]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/china-evergrande-shares-halt-trading-2022-01-03/

The Black Swan event for the BK that we have been waiting for?

[WICAO]

59 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dis-inflation loving under performing,inflation lovely out performing.YEN looks interesting though,or Jap stocks.

I have a Japan ETF that aims to track the FTSE Japan Index.  Top 5 holdings are Toyota, Sony, Keyence, Recruit Holdings and Tokyo Electron.  Share price 31 Dec 2020 was £26.15 and today it's £26.14.  Divi yield is about 1.7%.

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dis-inflation loving under performing,inflation lovely out performing.YEN looks interesting though,or Jap stocks.

Last time I screened for Jap stocks was 18 months ago, and seemed like divi yield was very hard to come by.

Would have to check notes to confirm, but from recollection there were energy producers, miners and industrials to be had in US/UK/EU at or around 6% yields, but nothing like that in Jap stocks.

Track record of paying divis very important to me - I want to be holding companies that already have a divi habit.

Edit to add: I suppose Japan having a 10 year head-start on ZIRP might have something to do with it? But still, hard to predict who will feel like coughing up if/when yield comes back into fashion.

[Jesus Wept]

45 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/china-evergrande-shares-halt-trading-2022-01-03/

The Black Swan event for the BK that we have been waiting for?

Nah.

A mere ‘grey rhino’ event that has been on the horizon and foreseeable for well over a year.

Just another ‘printing and bail out excuse’ which will keep the inflation of SM’s going.

[Starsend]

A happy and prosperous new year to everyone!

I'm starting the New Year with a big old chunk of money to invest, most of it I want to get into high yielding stuff. Difficult time really as the risk of a crash seems high but then again, been hearing that for years and years and I'm investing for the long-term anyway.

I've been watching some interesting stuff recently, what did well in 70s - energy stocks and REITS did particularly well at outpacing inflation.

Already got a lot of dosh in energy but nothing in REITS and there's a lot to choose from.

One I'm very interested in is Omega Healthcare listed on the NYSE. Yields an EXTRA JUICY 9.7%. They own almost a thousand healthcare type properties. Can't see any particular problems with them. Anybody have any thoughts as to how these types of companies are likely to do going forward? I like that their properties are hospitals / care centres etc, seems safer than a residential REIT.

https://www.investing.com/equities/omega-healthcare

 

 

 

 

 

[Starsend]

I own a couple of Russian stocks, Gazprom and Polymetal. Been nice yielders with some nice decent growth from Gazprom. I'm considering selling due to risk. From what I can see when Russia pulled their Crimea stunt in 2014 the shares in Gazprom almost halved over the following year and never really recovered for at least another five.

[DurhamBorn]

Problem on REITs is the debt.They mostly have 40% to 50% LTV so if rates double it could wipe out half their free cash flow.Id want to know exactly how much and also the bond structure.Some have all their debt in one or two bonds,hugely risky.

[Don Coglione]

18 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I own a couple of Russian stocks, Gazprom and Polymetal. Been nice yielders with some nice decent growth from Gazprom. I'm considering selling due to risk. From what I can see when Russia pulled their Crimea stunt in 2014 the shares in Gazprom almost halved over the following year and never really recovered for at least another five.

I can't see Gazprom struggling to sell everything it can pump, the World simply can't afford geopolitical ideology, at least when it comes to energy.

[Starsend]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Problem on REITs is the debt.They mostly have 40% to 50% LTV so if rates double it could wipe out half their free cash flow.Id want to know exactly how much and also the bond structure.Some have all their debt in one or two bonds,hugely risky.

Thanks DB, I think I'll spend a bit of time digging into their debt and see what I can find.

[Starsend]

12 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I can't see Gazprom struggling to sell everything it can pump, the World simply can't afford geopolitical ideology, at least when it comes to energy.

My concern isn't so much that their sales will be hit; it's what could happen to London shareholders if things got heated between the West and Russia. Russian Government could just delist from London and tell us all to feck off. No idea how likely a scenario that is to be honest. 

[M S E Refugee]

16 minutes ago, Starsend said:

My concern isn't so much that their sales will be hit; it's what could happen to London shareholders if things got heated between the West and Russia. Russian Government could just delist from London and tell us all to feck off. No idea how likely a scenario that is to be honest. 

The Western Powers are Paper Tigers who can't do a great deal against Putin.

We have the Windmills but Putin's cooking with Gas.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

A happy and prosperous new year to everyone!

I'm starting the New Year with a big old chunk of money to invest, most of it I want to get into high yielding stuff. Difficult time really as the risk of a crash seems high but then again, been hearing that for years and years and I'm investing for the long-term anyway.

I've been watching some interesting stuff recently, what did well in 70s - energy stocks and REITS did particularly well at outpacing inflation.

Already got a lot of dosh in energy but nothing in REITS and there's a lot to choose from.

One I'm very interested in is Omega Healthcare listed on the NYSE. Yields an EXTRA JUICY 9.7%. They own almost a thousand healthcare type properties. Can't see any particular problems with them. Anybody have any thoughts as to how these types of companies are likely to do going forward? I like that their properties are hospitals / care centres etc, seems safer than a residential REIT.

https://www.investing.com/equities/omega-healthcare

 

 

 

 

 

Omega looks interesting except for its large 5bn debt, though i note Market Watch says the debt is mostly 'long term debt', however this can sometimes just mean 2 years+. So as DB says in his reply to you, the debt structure is pivotal - actual length, rates, etc. The debt structure, is very important to know and mentioned often here on the thread, but I admit that it is the one metric that has always had me stumped. I find the financial sites don't provide near enough detail. Personally I'd gladly pay for a site that did, but guess the only way is to visit each individual company web site?                                                                                                                             Not advice of course, especially as these are only part of my BK watchlist for price falls, but I like the UK Target and Impact H/C reits. Both have low debt, 6% divi. 

[Harley]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dis-inflation loving under performing,inflation lovely out performing.YEN looks interesting though,or Jap stocks.

Jap stocks.  I had a good year.  A stock pickers market.  Ideally I would have gone long the picks and shorted the index.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Last time I screened for Jap stocks was 18 months ago, and seemed like divi yield was very hard to come by.

Not been a problem this year for me.  I look for 3% grossed up by the WHT.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Edit to add: I suppose Japan having a 10 year head-start on ZIRP

Some debt monsters but primarily applies to the government.  Many companies have tidied up their balance sheets since the madness of the last top.  I go for pure plays though and avoid the conglomerate types, especially companies with investments in golf courses!

[Harley]

18 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

the thread 'back on subject' as I was guilty of leading it off line :-)

I was looking for a funny spanking cartoon but even with a "strict" safe search setting.....!

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

A happy and prosperous new year to everyone!

I'm starting the New Year with a big old chunk of money to invest, most of it I want to get into high yielding stuff. Difficult time really as the risk of a crash seems high but then again, been hearing that for years and years and I'm investing for the long-term anyway.

I've been watching some interesting stuff recently, what did well in 70s - energy stocks and REITS did particularly well at outpacing inflation.

Already got a lot of dosh in energy but nothing in REITS and there's a lot to choose from.

One I'm very interested in is Omega Healthcare listed on the NYSE. Yields an EXTRA JUICY 9.7%. They own almost a thousand healthcare type properties. Can't see any particular problems with them. Anybody have any thoughts as to how these types of companies are likely to do going forward? I like that their properties are hospitals / care centres etc, seems safer than a residential REIT.

https://www.investing.com/equities/omega-healthcare

An interesting one for me to look at.  I too have been thinking REITs but the nuance this time round is in the right sectors rather than general.  So I looked at medical, data centres, supermarket landlords, etc.  Hopefully more niche stuff like that to replace LAND and the other one I've since sold out.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

My concern isn't so much that their sales will be hit; it's what could happen to London shareholders if things got heated between the West and Russia. Russian Government could just delist from London and tell us all to feck off. No idea how likely a scenario that is to be honest. 

I'm sitting on good gains (c.70%) and am looking to add more after the current (last time I looked) pull back.  I tend to go direct to the MOEX for such reasons.  But the UK TPTB were welcoming Russian money even when we were (are) fighting a type of "war".  They seem in bed with the Russians similar to the Chinese.  Just all part of the risks, like my Turkisk Lira holding (cash to deploy but market access was then closed!). 

[MrXxxx]

31 minutes ago, Harley said:

I was looking for a funny spanking cartoon but even with a "strict" safe search setting.....!

 

"Ohhh, donnnt be like that!" :-)))