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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just in time for xmas economists and the MSM reach our 6.8% inflation target we provided 3 years ago ;)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/inflation-hit-68pc-will-affect-mortgage-savings-investments/

 

Have a nice crimbo everyone,im off to get ready then out on the lash,with dad then down the town with my son,women will be making snail trails behind me i reckon tonight and thats before they see how much i got in Mosaic at the bottom.

 

 

 

 

 

dont forget your mask, you dont want to be the star of the durham gazzette on new years eve

'have you seen this pervert? police hunt for cheapskate porv in toon'

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DurhamBorn

DurhamBorn

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

dont forget your mask, you dont want to be the star of the durham gazzette on new years eve

'have you seen this pervert? police hunt for cheapskate porv in toon'

“Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask and he'll tell you the truth”

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Barnsey

Barnsey

Posted
Posted

New Year going to be chaos. I wonder how many have put off testing themselves before Xmas as to not ruin it, and how many of those WILL be testing themselves regularly post Xmas holiday in hope of a 7-10 isolation?

 

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, BurntBread said:

DB, what form do think the appropriation of capital will take? Countries on the continent are charging 0.5% or 1% on bank balances over a certain amount (EUR100k, I think), but that won't raise much here, as very few people have large bank balances, except briefly during house transactions. Are you thinking a windfall tax on private pensions? That would surely be counter-productive quickly, as most people with big pensions will retire soon, so reducing their spend into the economy. What about an extra tax on housing? That would be very unpopular, but it's where most people have a large part of their wealth, so at least a big target.

On your last paragraph about Italy stealing German's savings. Is that a reference to Target 2 flows and therefore the regional imbalances in the Eurozone? Are you saying that the UK needs European QE to continue as a cover for our own, otherwise we'll land in a currency crisis? I have noticed in previous pages the throwaway remark from DH that he doesn't think the Euro will survive "the bust" (which he is now estimating might begin the first half of 2022).

These are all pretty momentous issues. It would be nice to have a couple of weeks where we don't have to use the word "unprecedented". All the same, it must be absolutely fascinating (as well as horrifying) for you to see your models getting stress-tested.

Yes, I agree residential property taxes will happen. I think this tax, and others, will be hypothecated taxes. It will be a political fudge of course, but taxes will be implemented in this way in order to legitimise their introduction, not to mention the state/government itself seeking various ways to help strengthen its own right to govern. We have seen this start already with the recent NI increase/promised to welfare spending. With property taxes I think the tax revenue would be directed into mass social housing projects.                                                                                                                                                                                                     I also imagine, if government were to get really creative, that tax payers might be asked to check a box annually on their tax returns, for example to opt into paying higher taxes in return for additional health benefits, etc. I am just describing a form of corporatism here, but in many case the government has been talking a lot about linking up with private sector on climate challenge, big tech, infrastructure, so I guess only matter of time before other areas are added. Plus if some/much? big government spending is done via tax choices/hypothiation, with benefits 'kinda' flowing back to tax payer, wouldn't this be a cunning way of reducing the share of spending on bennies?                                                                                         ...These type of structural reforms usually require a black-swan event to usher them in. We have plenty of financial problems on the horizon, but are these enough? Of late, part of me thinks the COVID pantomime could have one final act, a finale even. Say COVID was never meant to go on and on and on, instead Western governments are rocked by whistleblower information of state ineptitude and that the COVID panic response, lockdown, or maybe even that the (leaky?) vaccine itself is harmful. New populism type parties might emerge to capitalise, but I think the lib/lab/con parties themselves are so divided that it would probably be far quicker for a 'radical wing' of said parties to dominate policy and to take the party and the electorate in a radical new direction...                                       just my 'festive'(?) thoughts... btw, Merry Christmas to the thread and a prosperous New Year!!

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BadAlchemy

BadAlchemy

Posted
Posted

Merry Xmas and a prosperous New Year to you all.

Bit of Xmas day fun... the lady who explained the stock market so well is back, this time it's everything you ever wanted to know about crypto...

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Sugarlips

Sugarlips

Posted
Posted

Merry Christmas 🍻

interesting twist here, Erdogan green lighting BTC into law as a currency. I know the Lira has been crashing but this sets a big precedence to how to tackle it.

given Turkey’s population is 85 millions as opposed to El Salvador’s 6.5m..and for them to announce it on Xmas day..

Who’s next, 🇿🇼?

https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/turkeys-crypto-law-is-ready-for-parliament-president-erdogan-confirms-2723647

 

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Bricks & Mortar

Bricks & Mortar

Posted
Posted
On 23/12/2021 at 21:39, mcdongle said:

Trying to work out what effect these LNG cargoes will have on Europe.

 

 capacity of the Yamal pipeline is 32.9 billion cubic meters (m3) per year, or about 90 million m3 per day. A Bloomberg article on the LNG tankers said that 20 tankers carry only 3.3 million m3. So if these figures are accurate, the LNG tankers supplying Europe shouldn't have much of a long-term effect if Europe doesn't order more gas thru the Yamal pipeline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-22/a-flotilla-of-u-s-lng-cargoes-is-headed-to-fuel-starved-europe

Not a lot it seems. Anyone know if this is right?

I wasn't really sure, but instinctively thinking this can't be right.  So, I did some thinking overnight, and googling this morning.

I reckon, LNG is not the same as natural gas.  It's cooled down to a liquid state and put in a pressure sphere to keep it that way.  It takes up 1/600th of the volume, according to wikipedia.

So, the 20 tankers, and their 3.3m cubes, will decompress to 1980 million cubes, and replace 22 days of the Yamal at full capacity.  Europe needs about one tanker per day to replace it, if my maths is right, (I haven't started on the sherry yet.)

It's 5000 miles from Houston to Milford.  = 4344 nautical miles.  Or, 9600 nautical miles round trip.

If the tanker travels at 15 knots, a round trip takes 640 hours, or 26.6 days.  Add a couple days for load/unload, and its 30 days.  So, we need about 50% more tankers than the 20 to replace the Yamal altogether.

And, as if by magic, Zerohedge has another story, referencing the Bloomberg one of a day earlier, where the number of tankers has indeed swollen to 30.

We're gonna be alright folks.  Merry Christmas.  Sherry time!

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-sends-fleet-lng-ships-fuel-starved-europe

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planit

planit

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

"frozen old people are an acceptable cost of progress".

The communists are back.

 

Happy new Year everyone, I hope you all had a nice Christmas day. :Beer:

My New Year resolution is to be 100% up by Feb.

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Merry Xmas and a prosperous New Year to you all.

Bit of Xmas day fun... the lady who explained the stock market so well is back, this time it's everything you ever wanted to know about crypto...

Is she the 'hedge fund' explanation lady? If so I seem to recall that she did an equally good deep dive(?!) into that some time back.            Tbh she had me at - 'If you've ever been to a bank... you've heard of money.'

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mcdongle

mcdongle

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I wasn't really sure, but instinctively thinking this can't be right.  So, I did some thinking overnight, and googling this morning.

I reckon, LNG is not the same as natural gas.  It's cooled down to a liquid state and put in a pressure sphere to keep it that way.  It takes up 1/600th of the volume, according to wikipedia.

So, the 20 tankers, and their 3.3m cubes, will decompress to 1980 million cubes, and replace 22 days of the Yamal at full capacity.  Europe needs about one tanker per day to replace it, if my maths is right, (I haven't started on the sherry yet.)

It's 5000 miles from Houston to Milford.  = 4344 nautical miles.  Or, 9600 nautical miles round trip.

If the tanker travels at 15 knots, a round trip takes 640 hours, or 26.6 days.  Add a couple days for load/unload, and its 30 days.  So, we need about 50% more tankers than the 20 to replace the Yamal altogether.

And, as if by magic, Zerohedge has another story, referencing the Bloomberg one of a day earlier, where the number of tankers has indeed swollen to 30.

We're gonna be alright folks.  Merry Christmas.  Sherry time!

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-sends-fleet-lng-ships-fuel-starved-europe

Thanks for that, The headache over this has gone :)..Merry Christmas

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