Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[StrugglingMillennial]

Let the bidding wars begin.

https://www.ft.com/content/4885b7f5-97a2-4e66-af91-a9211956b0f5

[Sidd]

I wonder when the big mobile / teclo operators such as EE / BT Vodafone offer free netflix, spotify etc with their mobile packages, maybe that is how they are getting them to pay for some of their high bandwidth use.

[Juniper]

Now to try and add something interesting. I’ve just listened to Felix Zulauf who’s calling for a BK in the first half of next year followed by a melt-up to a bigger peak and then bigger BK in 2024.

S&P to 3000, oil to $50 as a possibility in 2022; S&P up to 6000, oil to $200 in 2024.

It fits with lots of ideas on this thread but I’m not clear what he thinks happens after ‘24. If equities have a major crash and don’t recover can everyday inflation continue?…he says that oil hits $200 because of supply not demand (clearly following @Cattle Prod). Does oil remain high along with other inputs, increasing people’s pain, and if so can some related shares stay high even in a 1929 style crash? I refer back to my first post admission that I am a novice…

[ThoughtCriminal]

At this point we have to conclude it's deliberate.

[Ellandback]

36 minutes ago, Juniper said:

Now to try and add something interesting. I’ve just listened to Felix Zulauf who’s calling for a BK in the first half of next year followed by a melt-up to a bigger peak and then bigger BK in 2024.

S&P to 3000, oil to $50 as a possibility in 2022; S&P up to 6000, oil to $200 in 2024.

It fits with lots of ideas on this thread but I’m not clear what he thinks happens after ‘24. If equities have a major crash and don’t recover can everyday inflation continue?…he says that oil hits $200 because of supply not demand (clearly following @Cattle Prod). Does oil remain high along with other inputs, increasing people’s pain, and if so can some related shares stay high even in a 1929 style crash? I refer back to my first post admission that I am a novice…

GV has the same timings on PM equities - I dread to think how this decade turns out.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Who are people invested in in the telco space?

I'm only in Telia atm but looking to expand my sector holdings.

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

[Hancock]

35 minutes ago, Ellandback said:

GV has the same timings on PM equities - I dread to think how this decade turns out.

So long as govts have no more money to hand out to the fucken useless (themsleves and their friends) and have no more money to imprison us, then we'll be OK.

As long as you've food in your belly "and freedom" you'll be tickityboo.

 

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I went and looked at RR stock. Amazed to see they pay no div.

Well they have only just recently raised capital from shareholders, so there would be questions if they did!

[mcdongle]

1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Let the bidding wars begin.

https://www.ft.com/content/4885b7f5-97a2-4e66-af91-a9211956b0f5

Does anyone know how much is in one of those ships ,And how long would it take to use it up say in the uk?

[JREWING]

24 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At this point we have to conclude it's deliberate.

Always was deliberately motivated. Funny how BP's divvy got halved right at the beginning of this shit sandwich. Now it's SP is languishing in the what could be deemed silly price.

All orchestrated by the green machine.

F**k their shit rules, don't read news rags, don't watch TV. If you see a dick in a blue muzzle laugh at the c@nt.

As far as I'm concerned, the UK has turned into an excuse not to work due to government incompetence. I've heard of NHS workers using relatives positive tests for a no show at work. Hell knows how many others are playing the game. Not the NHS workers fault it's the clown government.

Fucking charade.

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

Apart from the (Verizon,Turkcell, Telenor) i'm backing your investments up!

Bought £1200 T today!

Remember your comment about people being addicted to their phones .... reminds me of "The Game" on Star Trek.

 

[Castlevania]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

I have the first four and Telefónica Brazil. Where I differ is that I’m younger and willing to take on a lot more risk so I also own Telecom Italia, Telecom Argentina and Airtel Africa which are on the riskier end of the scale. Airtel Africa has been a big winner, Telecom Italia and BT have done ok everything else is roughly +/- 10% before dividends.

[Hancock]

Seems as if Corona is over .... not that it ever existed in the sense we were led to believe.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/22/risk-hospitalisation-omicron-appears-two-thirds-lower-delta/

[Froggy2000]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got BT,VOD,Orange SA,Telefonica SA,Telefonica Germany,Telefonica Brasil,Telenor,AT&T,Verizon,Turkcell ,most are flat on buy price apart from BT that i lumped big bucks into below £1.Some of the others are up mostly a few % including divs.

Thanks for the update DB.  Turkcell looks particularly interesting considering what's happening to the Turkish Lira!  I'm not sure whether its ultimately good news in terms of wiping out Lira denominated debt, or whether its bad because the Turkish economy will unfortunately go down the toilet (again).

[Axeman123]

46 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Seems as if Corona is over

That would be the starting pistol for Dave Hunter's melt-up, assuming every government gets the same memo.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

That would be the starting pistol for Dave Hunter's melt-up, assuming every government gets the same memo.

Exactly my thoughts

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Seems as if Corona is over .... not that it ever existed in the sense we were led to believe.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/22/risk-hospitalisation-omicron-appears-two-thirds-lower-delta/

No.  They haven't got enough needles in arms and compliance for surveillance yet, in my view.  There will be some scarey varient in Q1-2 2022 which drives enforcement further.  Mandating boosters (as per Israel and is being pushed in Australia).

[Hancock]

Anyone buying (or able to buy AMLP?

Edit look like Alerian Midstream Energy Dividend UCITS ETF is the EU version.

https://www.alpsfunds.com/products/etf/AMLP

[JMD]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly it is.Pulls tax onshore,and in Orange SA and others even direct divs to governments as well.

Telcos will get some of the cut one way or another.They have massive power,just they cant use it yet.

DB, Interested where you say some telcos now beginning to pay 'direct divs to their government', I wonder if that is similar - and maybe one day might evan become same as in Russia - where I believe all sectors pay dividends into the state, and probably reason why many russian companies pay high divis (corporatism?).

[Hancock]

30 minutes ago, wherebee said:

No.  They haven't got enough needles in arms and compliance for surveillance yet, in my view.  There will be some scarey varient in Q1-2 2022 which drives enforcement further.  Mandating boosters (as per Israel and is being pushed in Australia).

Got to disagree, the £1bln for the entertainment industry showed theyre out of bullets, and Boris knows he's out of a job if he lockdown again.

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Got to disagree, the £1bln for the entertainment industry showed theyre out of bullets, and Boris knows he's out of a job if he lockdown again.

I hope you are right.  A lot of my investment decisions go better if people start travelling and spending again.

[Hancock]

Just now, wherebee said:

I hope you are right.  A lot of my investment decisions go better if people start travelling and spending again.

I hope im wrong so i can get pile into the oil companies.

[Loki]

46 minutes ago, wherebee said:

No.  They haven't got enough needles in arms and compliance for surveillance yet, in my view.  There will be some scarey varient in Q1-2 2022 which drives enforcement further.  Mandating boosters (as per Israel and is being pushed in Australia).

Starting gun for the bust? I think you could both be right. Although i also think a cyber event could conveniently happen but that's not for this thread

[Hardhat]

22 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Got to disagree, the £1bln for the entertainment industry showed theyre out of bullets, and Boris knows he's out of a job if he lockdown again.

Cancelling Christmas was what did for Oliver Cromwell...

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

Thanks for the update DB.  Turkcell looks particularly interesting considering what's happening to the Turkish Lira!  I'm not sure whether its ultimately good news in terms of wiping out Lira denominated debt, or whether its bad because the Turkish economy will unfortunately go down the toilet (again).

Political crisis and currency are usually great times to buy.Kaplan put me onto that fact years ago.Currency hit means they become cheap on the world market for goods etc and then the economy rebounds the other way.Turkcell is risky,but for people happy to accept the risk could provide very nice returns.