Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

Is there such a thing as knowing too much?!

You seem to have impeccable timing and knowledge that, after several years of learning from you, knows no bounds.

Aker BP Buys Lundin’s Oil and Gas Units in $10 Billion Deal - Bloomberg

[Loki]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

Is there such a thing as nowing too much?!

 

Yes, I just wanted to know when house prices might drop back a bit and now I look like this

 

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Nothing to do with any particular share but this setting profit stop losses seems to mean selling nearer a bottom than a top? It obviously works by saving money in a really big crash but what about setting some profit stop profits instead? This at a target high when you buy.

My strategy was (is) to minimise potential lost profits if prolonged or sudden drops happen over winter. My Shell one isn't looking like the right call so far and I do actually think with hindsight maybe I set that profit stop loss a little too high  However as others have said noone has ever gone bankrupt taking some profits so I can sleep fine at night for now 

Obviously if my gut instincts on all these lockdowns and upcoming deaths are proven right though the price I got will be a 'top' we won't see for weeks or months!

The alternative you are suggesting sounds like what people call top slicing and I have done this many times in the past too but again my timing is not perfect and I've sold too early in some shares like I'm sure many others have

Like I said originally, I don't have that much in my stocks and shares ISA so feel I need to take some risks like those above in order to try and get ahead and stay there but I'm sure most on here don't even notice unless their portfolio drops 20% or more 

[Majorpain]

Just noticed this on Royal Mint website, since an alloy is a mixture of two metals, and none of the products on offer are supposed to be that, has the mint taken a page out of the Chinese book and is selling plated tungsten bars??!!  

Hopefully just the Web guru trying to sound sophisticated and epically failing!  

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Just noticed this on Royal Mint website, since an alloy is a mixture of two metals, and none of the products on offer are supposed to be that, has the mint taken a page out of the Chinese book and is selling plated tungsten bars??!!  

Hopefully just the Web guru trying to sound sophisticated and epically failing!  

I wonder if they meant assay, which is still the wrong word, but makes more sense

[Hancock]

27 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

My strategy was (is) to minimise potential lost profits if prolonged or sudden drops happen over winter. My Shell one isn't looking like the right call so far and I do actually think with hindsight maybe I set that profit stop loss a little too high  However as others have said noone has ever gone bankrupt taking some profits so I can sleep fine at night for now 

Obviously if my gut instincts on all these lockdowns and upcoming deaths are proven right though the price I got will be a 'top' we won't see for weeks or months!

The alternative you are suggesting sounds like what people call top slicing and I have done this many times in the past too but again my timing is not perfect and I've sold too early in some shares like I'm sure many others have

Like I said originally, I don't have that much in my stocks and shares ISA so feel I need to take some risks like those above in order to try and get ahead and stay there but I'm sure most on here don't even notice unless their portfolio drops 20% or more 

IMHO, chilling is the name of the game, and not getting excited when share prices shoot up, or getting too worried when the opposite happens.

To me it looks like grabbing pennies in front of a steamroller, all this selling and buying back, as it is possible 320p is as low as BP ever goes! 

If i could choose between buying a load of BP at 291p the other month, or the presumed lower price that may occur in a BK or prolonged covid scenario, i'd pick the 291p, knowing that in the mid term they will almost certainly make me money.

If Biden is not calling for another lockdown i wonder whether thats our lot, and if we now entering the post covid world ... i suppose we'll see in the New Year.

[dnb24]

17 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Just noticed this on Royal Mint website, since an alloy is a mixture of two metals, and none of the products on offer are supposed to be that, has the mint taken a page out of the Chinese book and is selling plated tungsten bars??!!  

Hopefully just the Web guru trying to sound sophisticated and epically failing!  

Both are alloys -silver .999 or 925 (sterling) so not 100% silver and gold even at 24 carat isn’t pure gold- it’s .999

[harp]

50 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Is there such a thing as knowing too much?!

You seem to have impeccable timing and knowledge that, after several years of learning from you, knows no bounds.

Aker BP Buys Lundin’s Oil and Gas Units in $10 Billion Deal - Bloomberg

BP owns around 30% of Aker BP I think. 

[Majorpain]

55 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Both are alloys -silver .999 or 925 (sterling) so not 100% silver and gold even at 24 carat isn’t pure gold- it’s .999

Ok, but .999 is pure enough that's its pukka for any metal IMO. 

In other news IKEA customer is angry a desk went from £100 to £150 in one day.  Someone else who probably doesn't believe the 5% CPI any more.

[BWW]

4 hours ago, stoobs said:

I've just checked and our gas boiler needs:

• 3W to run the timer
• 75W when running the pump without the burner
• 130W when running the pump and burner

I'm not sure what the extra 55W is when the burner is running (maybe a second internal pump?).

A UPS like this will cost £700 and keep the boiler burning for a couple of hours so that's not a viable option.

Glad we've got the coal fire.

 

I have a thing which plugs into the cigar lighter of my car and allows you to plug in a 240V item. Suspect it may just about cope with that amount of current/watts but would need the engine running. Have only ever used it for a laptop charger.

Just need to make sure there's enough diesel in the car and you also have a steering lock or wheel clamp so you can leave the car running whilst the house heats up. Not sure it's so good on the street in London, we now have a 40 quid fine for idling with engine running but would be OK to heat a tank of water in the country.

[JREWING]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

IMHO, chilling is the name of the game, and not getting excited when share prices shoot up, or getting too worried when the opposite happens.

To me it looks like grabbing pennies in front of a steamroller, all this selling and buying back, as it is possible 320p is as low as BP ever goes! 

If i could choose between buying a load of BP at 291p the other month, or the presumed lower price that may occur in a BK or prolonged covid scenario, i'd pick the 291p, knowing that in the mid term they will almost certainly make me money.

If Biden is not calling for another lockdown i wonder whether thats our lot, and if we now entering the post covid world ... i suppose we'll see in the New Year.

Covid ain't going anywhere anytime soon. The boot remains firmly on our throats. The festive goodwill standoff will end posting stuffing day.

The evil emperor will return next week with more festive cheer. They won't be happy Brent is heading up against rising inflation.

Covid is the new inflation control lever. QE, interest rate hikes are so yrsterday..

 

Link to doom

 

In Washington now, US President Joe Biden is announcing new steps to combat the surge in coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant.

“I want to start by acknowledging how tired, worried, frustrated I know you are,” Biden says. “This will be the first or second Christmas you look across the kitchen and you see an empty chair.”

But this year, the vaccinated “should be comfortable celebrating Christmas and the holidays you celebrate as you planned”.

But for the unvaccinated, it’s a different story. The president once again refers to vaccination as a “patriotic duty” and implores Americans to get their jabs.

Without the protection of a vaccine, he says, it will be a long winter ahead.

[Hancock]

47 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Ok, but .999 is pure enough that's its pukka for any metal IMO. 

In other news IKEA customer is angry a desk went from £100 to £150 in one day.  Someone else who probably doesn't believe the 5% CPI any more.

Never been into Ikea but i hear the Meatballs are a delight.

Outside my window, there are 6 drill rigs being prepped to do their Digger Barnes bit in early 2022, does seem as if 2020/21 stopped this kind of thing in it tracks.

I can honestly say, that all at once, i've never had so much work being offered! Much the pity im not a money grabbing cunt.

[Hancock]

16 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Covid ain't going anywhere anytime soon. The boot remains firmly on our throats. The festive goodwill standoff will end posting stuffing day.

The evil emperor will return next week with more festive cheer. They won't be happy Brent is heading up against rising inflation.

Covid is the new inflation control lever. QE, interest rate hikes are so yrsterday..

 

Link to doom

 

In Washington now, US President Joe Biden is announcing new steps to combat the surge in coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant.

“I want to start by acknowledging how tired, worried, frustrated I know you are,” Biden says. “This will be the first or second Christmas you look across the kitchen and you see an empty chair.”

But this year, the vaccinated “should be comfortable celebrating Christmas and the holidays you celebrate as you planned”.

But for the unvaccinated, it’s a different story. The president once again refers to vaccination as a “patriotic duty” and implores Americans to get their jabs.

Without the protection of a vaccine, he says, it will be a long winter ahead.

Toss of a coin mate, could go either way IMHO.

But on the medical side of things you mean govt/MSM propaganda about Covid isn't going away! As for all intents and purposes it doesn't exist to the 99.95%

This article about Bidens covid stance was in the media a few weeks ago, and nothing has changed despite Europe pissing its pants.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/29/politics/omicron-variant-covid-biden-what-matters/index.html

[Harley]

5 hours ago, stoobs said:

I've just checked and our gas boiler needs:

• 3W to run the timer
• 75W when running the pump without the burner
• 130W when running the pump and burner

I'm not sure what the extra 55W is when the burner is running (maybe a second internal pump?).

A UPS like this will cost £700 and keep the boiler burning for a couple of hours so that's not a viable option.

Glad we've got the coal fire.

Those are more for a controlled shutdown of computer gear.  You'll need to spend £1000s on a Goal Zero type thing or go ESS.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Festival said:

Anyone have a view on Tate and Lyle?

I see Hargreaves and Lansdown tipping them as a share to watch in 2022. I wondered if they might benefit from producer price increases over time as inflation takes hold?

Five shares to watch in 2022: 5 top stocks to watch | HL

 

I own and am patiently waiting for a bottom to add for the div.  Take over target?

[sancho panza]

On 19/12/2021 at 21:10, Transistor Man said:

Own some pump-storage operators? Drax or Engie 

TM.Unfortunately,I've jsut come off shifts and been looking after the kids all day.This psot for some reason set me off on a trian of thought.Bascially,we focused last year on increasing oil and gold exposure at the bottoms,potash too but less so.Really neglaected the opportunities that @DurhamBorn and otehrs were finding in the leccy market buying Drax at the lows(it's now four bagged).In retrospect I was scarred by our running losses on the scottish play

Such is life.Didn't think any more about ittill your psot.

AL of a sudden I thought about these rsing leccy prices and whetehr there was any decent value leccy producers left,particualry with nuclear.We hold some cameco but would like to buy into the expertise of the companies

Looked at the charts for Engie and whilst it's not low,it's not hgih either.I'm going to coma score these tmrw if iget some childcare free horus to prep some spary n pray activity.

Obviously I'd welcome your thoughts if you have any on the follwoing

EDF

then i started thinking Jpan

On 20/12/2021 at 20:35, Cattle Prod said:

This is super interesting. Check out the EMs hiking, and in some cases offering positive real rates, I assume in an attempt to prevent a flight to the dollar? How does this compare with previous cycles where EMs were destroyed by the dollar and/or capital flight? Or are they just holding up because of the horrendous negative real rates/financial repression in the US/EU/UK etc?

 

That's a fascinating grid,it really does make me wonder how long this united front of running negative real rates will last.

I know a lot of people will say,'they'll never raise rates' etc etc but what ahppens if say teh swiss start raising pulling theri currency up,meaning downward pressure on other semi reserve currencies and upward pressure on their inflation stats?????

To me it's anintriguing scenario waiting to see who blinks first because histroy says that someone msot definitely will.Now the BoE won't be running negative real rates for long if the swiss/eurozone/japan start hiking.

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

That's a fascinating grid,it really does make me wonder how long this united front of running negative real rates will last.

I know a lot of people will say,'they'll never raise rates' etc etc but what ahppens if say teh swiss start raising pulling theri currency up,meaning downward pressure on other semi reserve currencies and upward pressure on their inflation stats?????

To me it's anintriguing scenario waiting to see who blinks first because histroy says that someone msot definitely will.Now the BoE won't be running negative real rates for long if the swiss/eurozone/japan start hiking.

That's what Davos is for, although it has been postponed from January, so I suppose someone might break ranks before the real players convene there.

[Hancock]

46 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

TM.Unfortunately,I've jsut come off shifts and been looking after the kids all day.This psot for some reason set me off on a trian of thought.Bascially,we focused last year on increasing oil and gold exposure at the bottoms,potash too but less so.Really neglaected the opportunities that @DurhamBorn and otehrs were finding in the leccy market buying Drax at the lows(it's now four bagged).In retrospect I was scarred by our running losses on the scottish play

Such is life.Didn't think any more about ittill your psot.

AL of a sudden I thought about these rsing leccy prices and whetehr there was any decent value leccy producers left,particualry with nuclear.We hold some cameco but would like to buy into the expertise of the companies

Looked at the charts for Engie and whilst it's not low,it's not hgih either.I'm going to coma score these tmrw if iget some childcare free horus to prep some spary n pray activity.

Obviously I'd welcome your thoughts if you have any on the follwoing

EDF

then i started thinking Jpan

That's a fascinating grid,it really does make me wonder how long this united front of running negative real rates will last.

I know a lot of people will say,'they'll never raise rates' etc etc but what ahppens if say teh swiss start raising pulling theri currency up,meaning downward pressure on other semi reserve currencies and upward pressure on their inflation stats?????

To me it's anintriguing scenario waiting to see who blinks first because histroy says that someone msot definitely will.Now the BoE won't be running negative real rates for long if the swiss/eurozone/japan start hiking.

EDF are fucking up in France with their latest nuclear station, believe that is why theyre not looking like the best investment, and that one is going to run.

Kind of our Scottish play.

 

[mcdongle]

8 hours ago, stoobs said:

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

Yep we do it here all the time...

[sancho panza]

On 20/12/2021 at 22:06, Cattle Prod said:

End of the growth road, yes I think so. I just can't see where the next tech breakthrough will be to tap previously unseen stuff. The subsurface, worldwide is pretty well mapped. Most of what I do is essentially improving old maps and looking for missed pay. There will be some new hotspots like Guyana, but not enough. I think we're inventive and creative enough for a long plateau though. We've managed a ten year plateau in conventional oil as it is.

1. Yes they do exactly that and have been for some time. When they no longer get a ROI of x on a weakening field, they sell it. Smaller companies can do better in that situation. They draw up a list fir disposal every year 

2. Service companies have already adapted and consolidated a lot. But they can do ok with a production plateau that you have to sweat (drill infill wells, well workovers, new turbines etc etc) harder.

Funny you should mention guyana

 

In the replies

I msut admit I'm casting about for some decent explorerco's....spray n pray natch.Just picked up antoher batch of Rocky Hopper at 5p a week or two back.You gotta be in to win.

Btw CP,I'm turning Jpanaese today..is Eneos worth investigating further?No pressure.

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Doesnt bother me Harley,i like companies where debt is a high part of the mix that can leverage inflation.My only worry is derivative risk,not debt risk.They will be increasing prices with inflation,but half the cost of capital base is at fixed coupons.Its one of the reasons the cycle favours such companies IMO

This is the key bit I struggled to get my head round and probably wouldn't have done without this thread tbh.These companies have levered their assets on the way into the credit boom and then lever their debt on the way out.

I was looking over our telcoms  earlier and seeing how nicely we've been adding into recent market lows.As I remember @Democorruptcy first bringing to our attention the vod 2056 3% bond.Really made me sit up and think .

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you want to study HL's "form" the previous 5 for 2020 and 2021 can be found in these:

2021 & 2020

 

I jsut had a flick through and sighed.three within 10% of their all time peaks,one 35% off peak and a bank (lloyds)leveraged at 26/1 using dowd buckner ratio.I suppose it's attractive on the basis that it isn't as highly leveraged as Barclays at 45/1.

Lloyds would be my pick there but I can't say I'd like buying a bank ahead of a banking crisis.

tip 1

tip 3

tip 5

tip 4

[sancho panza]

Is it all getting a bit Oct 1999 ish? I know people who've bought in in the last 12 months and were telling me it was the go to investment going forward.

 

 

Transitory meh!!!

[belfastchild]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I was looking over our telcoms  earlier and seeing how nicely we've been adding into recent market lows.As I remember @Democorruptcy first bringing to our attention the vod 2056 3% bond.Really made me sit up and think

I had a good discussion earlier in the week with someone about BT spitting feathers over net neutrality. BT has doubled its capacity in 2 years and more and more of it is being used by about 6 companies (youtube, facebook, netflix, nowtv, amazon video and cant remember what the other one was). Highest ever network usage was this month with the streaming football.

Ofcom have published the responses to their review if anyone is interested.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-2/call-for-evidence-net-neutrality-review?showall=1

BT is making a lot of noise about subsidising content providers. Not part of any discussion I had but I think a few slowdowns (rather than outages) would probably teach a few lessons, although it wouldnt surprise me if BT complaints are sick of dealing with slow server complaints that content providers are really responsible for.
Id just start fucking about with their QoS tags and be done with it.

Ofcom will report in the spring. Ofgem price cap to be reviewed in spring (at least 50-60% uplift there)

Glad Ive bought cheap bulk dvd collections!

[JimmyTheBruce]

10 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I had a good discussion earlier in the week with someone about BT spitting feathers over net neutrality. BT has doubled its capacity in 2 years and more and more of it is being used by about 6 companies (youtube, facebook, netflix, nowtv, amazon video and cant remember what the other one was). Highest ever network usage was this month with the streaming football.

Ofcom have published the responses to their review if anyone is interested.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-2/call-for-evidence-net-neutrality-review?showall=1

BT is making a lot of noise about subsidising content providers. Not part of any discussion I had but I think a few slowdowns (rather than outages) would probably teach a few lessons, although it wouldnt surprise me if BT complaints are sick of dealing with slow server complaints that content providers are really responsible for.
Id just start fucking about with their QoS tags and be done with it.

Ofcom will report in the spring. Ofgem price cap to be reviewed in spring (at least 50-60% uplift there)

Glad Ive bought cheap bulk dvd collections!

Loved this bit at the link:

Are there genuinely people who can read in Welsh but not in English!?

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I had a good discussion earlier in the week with someone about BT spitting feathers over net neutrality. BT has doubled its capacity in 2 years and more and more of it is being used by about 6 companies (youtube, facebook, netflix, nowtv, amazon video and cant remember what the other one was). Highest ever network usage was this month with the streaming football.

Ofcom have published the responses to their review if anyone is interested.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-2/call-for-evidence-net-neutrality-review?showall=1

BT is making a lot of noise about subsidising content providers. Not part of any discussion I had but I think a few slowdowns (rather than outages) would probably teach a few lessons, although it wouldnt surprise me if BT complaints are sick of dealing with slow server complaints that content providers are really responsible for.
Id just start fucking about with their QoS tags and be done with it.

Ofcom will report in the spring. Ofgem price cap to be reviewed in spring (at least 50-60% uplift there)

Glad Ive bought cheap bulk dvd collections!

This is the big telco play along with inflation.Remember as well these big tech firms pay no tax ,telcos do.Telcos also invest on the ground everywhere,and the government needs them.BT sit next to BAE and RR for government.IF there are moves on this,and i think in time its certain,telcos should 3x easily before divs over the cycle,maybe 5x.

Those big tech companies go to zero if the telcos shut them off,and like you say if regulators dont act then slow them down,they will soon cough up.

Im convinced telcos are going to do a tobacco where most markets go to 2 or 3 players who only pretend to compete and you never get a new entrant unless someone wants to burn capital trying.They might do it merging their tower companies and assets so they charge each other a high price so they all pay then get profits passed back.

 

[DurhamBorn]

It should also be noted,that at the moment telcos are mostly paid by consumers.So consumers are paying for big tech to have a free ride.If regulators change the rules it could mean consumer bills can go up slower than inflation while telcos get more from big tech.The present rules were right for the time,but i think its almost certain users above a certain level are going to have to cough up.Its a beautiful macro contrarian trade.