Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

France has had to turn on Porcheville power station, known as the last line of defence before blackouts, burning fuel oil.

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Incredible goings-on with USDTRY.

This has to be an "intervention", and one that's rather hard to explain given the state of TCMB's forex reserves. Who or what "intervened"?

 

Oh it's an intervention alright.

 

Erdogans lost his mind.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Tell Russia they can't invade Ukraine, they said.

 

Threaten Putin, he won't do anything, they said.

 

We really are governed by utter fuckwits.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

osted 10 hours ago

 

@planit put a good book in 'The Library' thread that may help with this.

Could you please clarify.  Planit put a book in a thread?  But you're replying to him so someone else did?  Who?  And which book?  And where is the library thread please?  

[jamtomorrow]

11 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Oh it's an intervention alright.

 

Erdogans lost his mind.

 

If that's all it is, we're in uncharted territory. 30% intra-day swings based on the comments of a buffoon is perhaps expected of meme stocks, but this is the national currency of a G20 member.

We can't measure systemic instability directly, we can only look for signs.

[jamtomorrow]

21 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

France has had to turn on Porcheville power station, known as the last line of defence before blackouts, burning fuel oil.

Good time to re-up the Lawrence Livermore energy flow chart. This one is for the US, but France won't be much different. That thin line from petroleum to electricity gen is ripe for change.

Question is, who's going to clean up making a crap-ton of massive diesel gennies at premium prices for panicked Governments?

[jamtomorrow]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Tell Russia they can't invade Ukraine, they said.

 

Threaten Putin, he won't do anything, they said.

 

We really are governed by utter fuckwits.

Europe's original geoplotical sin was ceding energy security in the first place. Merkel's nuclear panic takes much of the credit.

Now there are only shite choices - get in deeper with Big Gay Vlad, or go cold turkey on energy.

[geordie_lurch]

32 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

If that's all it is, we're in uncharted territory. 30% intra-day swings based on the comments of a buffoon is perhaps expected of meme stocks, but this is the national currency of a G20 member.

We can't measure systemic instability directly, we can only look for signs.

What would you rather be holding here if you were Turkish - their lira or the "unstable" Bitcoin as per my post this week or last?

30% swings in a day of a 'stable' national currency compared to a modest +117% rise in Bitcoin over the last 12 months

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Good time to re-up the Lawrence Livermore energy flow chart. This one is for the US, but France won't be much different. That thin line from petroleum to electricity gen is ripe for change.

Question is, who's going to clean up making a crap-ton of massive diesel gennies at premium prices for panicked Governments?

Cummins.I used to make them.Technician slang we called them Coolpacks because of their self cooling fans etc we build on them.

[MrXxxx]

55 minutes ago, Harley said:

Could you please clarify.  Planit put a book in a thread?  But you're replying to him so someone else did?  Who?  And which book?  And where is the library thread please?  

Sorry, rushed answer. To clarify it was a book that I thought might help @planit. For anyone else that is interested its this one:

The Equity Edge by Mark Jeavons [pub Harriman House] ISBN:978085719786

[jamtomorrow]

Missed this yesterday (and apologies if already posted). "Baisser un peu la tension" does sound absolutely lovely though. Does it come with frites?

 

[Wheeler]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Could you please clarify.  Planit put a book in a thread?  But you're replying to him so someone else did?  Who?  And which book?  And where is the library thread please?  

The library thread is in the basement too:

 

 

[Plan-b]

4 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Missed this yesterday (and apologies if already posted). "Baisser un peu la tension" does sound absolutely lovely though. Does it come with frites?

 

So if the French may have a problem when they are reasonably set up for electrical generation and we import from them, wheres our government advice or comment on the issue?

[Plan-b]

In fact the French have gone tight on us - typical                                              

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

France now deployed almost all of its reserve power generation.

 

And it's not even cold yet.

 

Get your popcorn on your calor gas burners boys, it's gonna be entertaining.

[DurhamBorn]

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry, rushed answer. To clarify it was a book that I thought might help @planit. For anyone else that is interested its this one:

The Equity Edge by Mark Jeavons [pub Harriman House] ISBN:978085719786

Cheers guys.  Funny, I've just been having a book clear out and have many investing books (many unread!) which may need to go.  I may keep them and a candle(*) for now though for when the internet and/or leccy goes off!  Wish I could share here somehow when done with them.  Some are even signed by the authors.  I used to like going to the investing conferences in London and would pick up a few.  Feel a bit sad and will just say feck the WEF lot and their "Young Global Leader" b-shirts, although to be fair the conferences were dying out a bit before 2020.

(*) not required, did I mention I bought a few batteries!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

But TEL Debt to Equity = 442%! 

Net Intangible Assets Kr40bn versus Equity Kr44bn

......

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

Hopefully sooner than later...

[jamtomorrow]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Cummins.I used to make them.Technician slang we called them Coolpacks because of their self cooling fans etc we build on them.

I wonder if we might start seeing something similar to these dual fuel aeroderivative turbine setups, but on a larger scale suitable for grid generation: https://www.ge.com/gas-power/services/gas-turbines/upgrades/gas-to-dual-fuel-lm6000

Kerosene is obviously a no-brainer for aeroderivatives, but got me wondering whether it would have legs for large-scale turbines like the GT26. Seems like the answer is a big fat "yes":

“GE’s GT26 HE upgrade blends cutting-edge technology from GE’s industry-leading F and H class fleets and it will help us produce more power, while reducing CO2 emissions per MW,” said Juan José Marcet, General Manager, Central Dock Sud. “Thanks to this significant power increase we will fully decommission our high-fogging system, leading to substantial cost savings.  In addition, we will benefit from the HE’s dual fuel capability, allowing us to burn diesel backup fuel in winter in case of a natural gas shortage.”

Source: https://www.power-eng.com/om/plant-optimization/new-ge-gt26-he-upgrade-shows-benefits-in-uniper-uk-plant-testing/#gref

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

The one big potential spanner in the works here DB is that the link was planned years ago before the massive and sudden increase in EV sales in Norway.
Norway does have more wind and hydro in the planning but it will be another year or two minimum to see how the influx of EVs affects their grid, particularly around now with low wind and low precipitation. They have already mooted timed charging to allow the current grid to cope during wind down times so whilst I agree the link will be good during excess times, its the times like now where it might be another chocolate teapot and Norway needs all its own production itself (just like the French today).

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

But TEL Debt to Equity = 442%! 

Net Intangible Assets Kr40bn versus Equity Kr44bn

......

Doesnt bother me Harley,i like companies where debt is a high part of the mix that can leverage inflation.My only worry is derivative risk,not debt risk.They will be increasing prices with inflation,but half the cost of capital base is at fixed coupons.Its one of the reasons the cycle favours such companies IMO

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

The one big potential spanner in the works here DB is that the link was planned years ago before the massive and sudden increase in EV sales in Norway.
Norway does have more wind and hydro in the planning but it will be another year or two minimum to see how the influx of EVs affects their grid, particularly around now with low wind and low precipitation. They have already mooted timed charging to allow the current grid to cope during wind down times so whilst I agree the link will be good during excess times, its the times like now where it might be another chocolate teapot and Norway needs all its own production itself (just like the French today).

True,mostly depends on rainfall/snow melt,but much better placed than most.It will get bad for everyone,being least bad will be a great position.UK should of been building much more pumped storage ourselves,but as we know our polos are clueless.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 hours ago, Plan-b said:

So if the French may have a problem when they are reasonably set up for electrical generation and we import from them, wheres our government advice or comment on the issue?

...the answer is a few posts above yours:  *We really are governed by utter fuckwits.*

we better get cracking and all start scanning fb marketplace for calor gas burners!!!

 

bet @DurhamBorn got his in the summer for peanuts...lags/timing and all that!