Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...the answer is a few posts above yours:  *We really are governed by utter fuckwits.*

we better get cracking and all start scanning fb marketplace for calor gas burners!!!

 

bet @DurhamBorn got his in the summer for peanuts...lags/timing and all that!

 

Yep,garage is full of them,darent get anymore in case of exposion ,iv got the smaller 8kg ones as well and a nice camping stove that runs on it.A few batteries charged for phones etc.My gas bill is cheap though,its the electric we are getting hammered on,mainly to fund windmills and handouts to Sharon over the road on bennies,the ones with a brand new BMW.

[stoobs]

Are people stockpiling calor gas for heat or also for cooking?

I'd assumed we may have leccy blackouts but the gas supply would be fine.

So no gas fired central heating for most of us, but the hobs still working (and gas fires if you have them).

[Plan-b]

15 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Are people stockpiling calor gas for heat or also for cooking?

I'd assumed we may have leccy blackouts but the gas supply would be fine.

So no gas fired central heating for most of us, but the hobs still working (and gas fires if you have them).

I think that gas transmission would require some electrical equipment, and a lot of our electricity comes from gas turbines up to about 60% when the winds not blowing. We get gas from a variety of sources. I could imagine some of the European sources are also of Russian origin not sure on that though.   

Data from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy shows UK production and imports in gigawatt hours in 2020 as follows:

UK - 438,520

Norway - 266,155

Qatar - 96,904

USA - 53,439

Russia - 24,635

Trinidad and Tobago - 11,190

Netherlands - 11,073

Belgium - 7,548

Nigeria - 3,688

Egypt - 2,040

France - 1,079

Algeria - 488

[stoobs]

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

[belfastchild]

30 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Are people stockpiling calor gas for heat or also for cooking?

I'd assumed we may have leccy blackouts but the gas supply would be fine.

So no gas fired central heating for most of us, but the hobs still working (and gas fires if you have them).

The gas should be fine, the water and gas pumping stations are supposed to be critical infrastructure. Saying that if you know anyone in the recent blackouts (although usually remote places off for ages may not have mains gas) ask them what happened.

Bought a load of super sers, bottles, gas bbqs and camping gaz stoves and canisters this summer for next to nothing. Although how Im going to stick them up on FB marketplace during a power cut is anyones guess ;-)

I have that much faith in the electricity network. Saying that, I see a big profit on all but one of each ;-) Battered super ser and half full gas bottle currrently on marketplace for 100 quid, not the 25 quid I bought them for during the summer.

If you cant get some and have outdoor space, learn how to cook on a fire.

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

Youtube is your friend as is someone from southern USA (probably deep fried though!).  Just ordered a top up for the heating oil tank.  Price has come down 10p a litre since last week.  Maybe another thing people are happy to pay a premium for in time for Christmas.  I have Calor gas bottles, a heater, and even a shower from my Feb20 prepping days.  Then there are my logs which I'm happy to provide on a subscription basis!  Buggered on mains water though as the leccy always fails and the pumps go off in winter, or the pressure drops to nada because those in the valleys don't insulate taps, etc.  That all said, something will come along and bugger things up! 

[belfastchild]

18 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

Mate did a bbq spatchcock turkey on the bbq a few years ago.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Doesnt bother me Harley,i like companies where debt is a high part of the mix that can leverage inflation.My only worry is derivative risk,not debt risk.They will be increasing prices with inflation,but half the cost of capital base is at fixed coupons.Its one of the reasons the cycle favours such companies IMO

Maybe I need a rethink (although in the case of 442%, a strong imagination!).

[MrXxxx]

29 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

I think you burn/cremate it the same way you usually do in the summer?! :-)))

[stoobs]

I've just checked and our gas boiler needs:

• 3W to run the timer
• 75W when running the pump without the burner
• 130W when running the pump and burner

I'm not sure what the extra 55W is when the burner is running (maybe a second internal pump?).

A UPS like this will cost £700 and keep the boiler burning for a couple of hours so that's not a viable option.

Glad we've got the coal fire.

[Bobthebuilder]

37 minutes ago, stoobs said:

I've just checked and our gas boiler needs:

• 3W to run the timer
• 75W when running the pump without the burner
• 130W when running the pump and burner

I'm not sure what the extra 55W is when the burner is running (maybe a second internal pump?).

A UPS like this will cost £700 and keep the boiler burning for a couple of hours so that's not a viable option.

Glad we've got the coal fire.

All gas appliances are fuse rated at 3 Amps max, a typical modern combi pulls around 0.7 amps @ 230 volts, so around 160W.

The extra 55W when the burner is on will be the gas valve, it uses electro magnets to hold the gas valve open also the flue fan will operate, most fans run on 14V supply.

Not sure what back up batteries you would need to keep that running, maybe one for @Transistor Man?

 

[Loki]

@ThoughtCriminal your mate must be in a great mood today 

[Festival]

Anyone have a view on Tate and Lyle?

I see Hargreaves and Lansdown tipping them as a share to watch in 2022. I wondered if they might benefit from producer price increases over time as inflation takes hold?

Five shares to watch in 2022: 5 top stocks to watch | HL

 

[belfastchild]

33 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

All gas appliances are fuse rated at 3 Amps max, a typical modern combi pulls around 0.7 amps @ 230 volts, so around 160W.

The extra 55W when the burner is on will be the gas valve, it uses electro magnets to hold the gas valve open also the flue fan will operate, most fans run on 14V supply.

Not sure what back up batteries you would need to keep that running, maybe one for @Transistor Man?

 

Get a small inverter and check the rating is rms not peak (or go for oversized inverter say 600w) and take the battery out of your car and plug it in if you get stuck. Of course you wont be able to drive anywhere but Id say it was the least of your worries.

Failing that, decent inverter and any leisure battery will do, theres multiple mentions in other threads (so as not to clog up this one).

Do your cooking and put the heating on for an hour before 5pm ;-)

[Democorruptcy]

30 minutes ago, Festival said:

Anyone have a view on Tate and Lyle?

I see Hargreaves and Lansdown tipping them as a share to watch in 2022. I wondered if they might benefit from producer price increases over time as inflation takes hold?

Five shares to watch in 2022: 5 top stocks to watch | HL

 

If you want to study HL's "form" the previous 5 for 2020 and 2021 can be found in these:

2021 & 2020

 

[Democorruptcy]

On 20/12/2021 at 08:23, geordie_lurch said:

My profit taking stop loss for Shell I set weeks ago triggered this morning after its dropped another 2% from much higher recently  I think my BP shares will be next as there's no good news coming this winter as I said weeks ago due to Government's using Omicron to shut things down and further their totalitarian plans I totally appreciate most on here are 'happy' to just hold when they lose 20% or more of their previous profits but I just don't have the cash in my ISA to not try and bank at least some of the profits here from buying them near the previous lows as I think we will head back near them again over the next 6 months

I should also state I fully agree that owning all the major oil and gas companies like Shell is the best strategy long term as energy prices aren't coming down anytime soon as per all the brilliant posts on this thread but IMHO that doesn't mean I should just sit idle whilst most of all the profits in this recent ride up disappear

Nothing to do with any particular share but this setting profit stop losses seems to mean selling nearer a bottom than a top? It obviously works by saving money in a really big crash but what about setting some profit stop profits instead? This at a target high when you buy.

[ThoughtCriminal]

55 minutes ago, Loki said:

@ThoughtCriminal your mate must be in a great mood today 

He's grinning like a Cheshire cat! Unsurprisingly 🤣

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting power related anecdotal. 

 

Just went in my sisters and she was on an emergency zoom meeting. Company she works for make ethanol, cattle feed and co2. 

 

Her boss was saying it would now be more profitable for them to sell their electricity contracts and mothball the plant.

 

Wonder how much longer this can go on.

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Interesting power related anecdotal. 

 

Just went in my sisters and she was on an emergency zoom meeting. Company she works for make ethanol, cattle feed and co2. 

 

Her boss was saying it would now be more profitable for them to sell their electricity contracts and mothball the plant.

 

Wonder how much longer this can go on.

Same thing for UK Fertiliser factories.

[Chewing Grass]

I will add that at some point the UKs inter-connectors may get cut from the European grid.

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Her boss was saying it would now be more profitable for them to sell their electricity contracts and mothball the plant.

It does seem like there will be an effective ceiling, just by that mechanism. Obviously the societal costs will still be huge from lost production, especially for CO2.

[The Grey Man]

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Same thing for UK Fertiliser factories.

Glad I listened to the themes here and future proofed on fertiliser for the allotment.(posted October I think on what are you growing)

 

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Interesting power related anecdotal. 

 

Just went in my sisters and she was on an emergency zoom meeting. Company she works for make ethanol, cattle feed and co2. 

 

Her boss was saying it would now be more profitable for them to sell their electricity contracts and mothball the plant.

 

Wonder how much longer this can go on.

Energy price and the overheads of CO2 bullshit are a perfect pincer movement

(What I mean is energy would have gone up anyway regardless of the carbon lies agenda, but now that will add another layer of cost)

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I will add that at some point the UKs inter-connectors may get cut from the European grid.

What does this mean?

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What does this mean?

The Europeans deciding to keep power on their domestic market at peak times, if those peak times get longer during the day or evenings then there is no surplus for the UK.

Works the other way as well.