Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I use 2 SIMs so I have better signal options and before Black Friday they cost £30.83, now down to £18 no contracts both unlimited calls/texts one 15gb and the other 20gb.

Ta, although I was thinking £5 to £6 a month! 

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This is where David Hunter's 'blow off top' view comes in.We've had tech bubbles before,we're in a tech bubble now.I don't think we've had the manic phase yet.

Look at those moves you're talking about,20% in Dec 99 and Feb 00 and then ye olde Douglas bader which was a 20% month peak to trough(I' like that analogy).Admittedly,participation was broader so maybe we won't get the similar moves but from a psychological point of view,histroy says we will.

There was a 20%er in Apr 20 but I'm inclined to ignore that if I'm betting with my own money due to the man made nature of that fiasco.

Heiken Ashi shows trend still firmly in tact.

Agree with you there (I thought the same) and great to see someone else reference HA candles.

[sancho panza]

Interesting that the Ozzies 54% coal fired leccy.............

Maybe implies the decomplex trade here is the best......coal/uranium for the foreseeable.Very much reinforcing @DurhamBorn's 'if every Indian family got a fridge' thesis.

 

https://www.energy.gov.au/data/electricity-generation

In 2019-20 total electricity generation in Australia was nearly steady at around 265 TWh (955 PJ), the highest total generation on record for Australia. COVID-19 affected sectoral usage and time of demand, but had limited impact on overall demand for electricity for the year as a whole.

Fossil fuels contributed 76% of total electricity generation in 2020, including coal (54%), gas (20%) and oil (2%). The share of coal in the electricity mix has continued to decline, in contrast to the beginning of the century when coal’s share was more than 80% of electricity generation.

Renewables contributed 24% of total electricity generation in 2020, specifically solar (9%), wind (9%) and hydro (6%). The share of renewable energy generation increased from 21% in 2019.

About 16% of Australia’s electricity was generated outside the electricity sector by business and households in 2019-20.

 

Chinois=65% coal......maybe coal/nuclear looking cheap here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China#:~:text=Most of the electricity in,electricity generation mix in 2019.

Most of the electricity in China comes from coal, which accounted for 65% of the electricity generation mix in 2019.^[4] However, electricity generation by renewables has been increasing steadily, from 615,005 GWh (17.66% of total) in 2008 to 2,082,800 GWh (27.32% of total) in 2020.

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_India

The national electric grid in India has an installed capacity of 388.134 GW as of 31 August 2021.^[2] Renewable power plants, which also include large hydroelectric plants, constitute 37% of India's total installed capacity. 

India has a surplus power generation capacity but lacks adequate transmission and distribution infrastructure. India's electricity sector is dominated by fossil fuels, in particular coal, which during the 2018-19 fiscal year produced about three-quarters of the country's electricity

[sancho panza]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Agree with you there (I thought the same) and great to see someone else reference HA candles.

You were the one who first mentioned them to me and I use them inconjunction with normal candles ie the Heiken identify the trend and then I use ordinary candles to guide me in and out of the trade alongsdie fundamental analysis plus instinct

All our oilies options trades from BP 240 last year were framed using Heiken.So in short H,thank you for the introduction.

[JimmyTheBruce]

30 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta, although I was thinking £5 to £6 a month! 

ID Mobile.  £3.99 a month unlimited calls and texts.  Only 1GB data but I'm always on WiFi.  I think they use Three's network.

[janch]

16 hours ago, JREWING said:

Covid is the new inflation control lever. QE, interest rate hikes are so yrsterday..

This is it in a nutshell.

[JimmyTheBruce]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It should also be noted,that at the moment telcos are mostly paid by consumers.So consumers are paying for big tech to have a free ride.If regulators change the rules it could mean consumer bills can go up slower than inflation while telcos get more from big tech.The present rules were right for the time,but i think its almost certain users above a certain level are going to have to cough up.Its a beautiful macro contrarian trade.

 

Excuse my ignorance, but does this not mean the telcos are charging both consumer and provider for the same bandwidth?  Might they not go back to the days when "unlimited" didn't exist and they reamed the consumer based upon download volumes?

[belfastchild]

37 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta, although I was thinking £5 to £6 a month! 

Depends how much data you use and what your local coverage is like.
Three, sim only, 1gb, unlimited calls and texts 6 quid a month. free hotspot, roaming included.
I have it for a little over a fiver.
Found coverage here in NI is good and the roam thing works in border areas when you pick up southern signal.

[Starsend]

4 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I had a good discussion earlier in the week with someone about BT spitting feathers over net neutrality. BT has doubled its capacity in 2 years and more and more of it is being used by about 6 companies (youtube, facebook, netflix, nowtv, amazon video and cant remember what the other one was). Highest ever network usage was this month with the streaming football.

Ofcom have published the responses to their review if anyone is interested.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-2/call-for-evidence-net-neutrality-review?showall=1

BT is making a lot of noise about subsidising content providers. Not part of any discussion I had but I think a few slowdowns (rather than outages) would probably teach a few lessons, although it wouldnt surprise me if BT complaints are sick of dealing with slow server complaints that content providers are really responsible for.
Id just start fucking about with their QoS tags and be done with it.

Ofcom will report in the spring. Ofgem price cap to be reviewed in spring (at least 50-60% uplift there)

Glad Ive bought cheap bulk dvd collections!

Pornhub probably

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Pornhub probably

That might only be high def for short 2 minute bursts ;-)

[leonardratso]

9 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

That might only be high def for short 2 minute bursts ;-)

wow, long stander eh.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

I've just renewed by broadband for two years fixed (apart from the horrific RPI+ uplift).  The current supplier offered me an alleged stonking new deal so I had a quick look and came up with quite a few cheaper ones.   Went back to them and nicely haggled a 27% reduction, although I miss out on the (iffy?) cashback had I switched.  I'm now seeing a better deal on our mobiles........!

Interesting, but wonder if it's mainly now all about gaining market share, I mean the more customers they have the more important/influential the telecoms players will be when they become an 'arm of the state' - ie defacto tax collectors for the government, hoovering up some of the big profits from the international content providers? ...Unsure how it would technically work, but it's one way for governments to onshore tax! Different/interesting times!!

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

ID Mobile.  £3.99 a month unlimited calls and texts.  Only 1GB data but I'm always on WiFi.  I think they use Three's network.

One of mine is ID Mobile £8 for unlimited calls/text and 20gb. They were offering 10gb online but I phoned up to ask if they could better it and they upped it to 20gb. They said they always have better offers to people who phone, compared to what's online. It does use Three like Smarty.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

8/11/21

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59201945

Reactor designer Rolls-Royce will announce that a consortium of investors will back plans for a new smaller nuclear reactor project.

As part of its 10 point green energy plan, the government has already announced it would provide £210m in funding if that could be matched by private capital.

An announcement that money has been raised could come as soon as Tuesday.

Around 21% of Britain's electricity supply is provided by nuclear power.

The plan is thought to include the construction of an initial four Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) based on the technology used in nuclear powered submarines.

These reactors will be capable of generating nearly 500 megawatts of power - three times as much as much as most existing nuclear submarine reactors but more than six times less than the 3.2 gigawatts that the large plant under construction at Hinkley Point will deliver. Hinkley is expected to produce enough power to supply 6 million homes.

At an expected ultimate cost of around £2bn each, they should cost less than a tenth of the £20bn each of Hinkley and an anticipated, but not yet approved, sister plant at Sizewell in Suffolk.

 

26/10/21

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59051025

Funding rules paving the way for a new major nuclear power station have been announced by the Business and Energy Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng.

The move is the latest stage in efforts to build the £20bn Sizewell C project in Suffolk.

The proposed plant is still subject to planning approval, but until now, the Treasury has been uncertain of how to pay for it.

The government said the new financing model could help cut the cost of new nuclear power projects in Britain, saving consumers more than £30bn on each new large-scale station.

The Treasury was initially reluctant to use the RAB model.

Not only does it add money to consumer bills over the lifetime of the project, but it also leaves consumers vulnerable to cost overruns, which have plagued previous nuclear developments.

However, contractor EDF Energy has been adamant that lessons learned on previous projects - and the fact that it is building an identical plant at Hinkley Point - have largely mitigated those risks, says BBC business editor Simon Jack.

 

This is where David Hunter's 'blow off top' view comes in.We've had tech bubbles before,we're in a tech bubble now.I don't think we've had the manic phase yet.

Look at those moves you're talking about,20% in Dec 99 and Feb 00 and then ye olde Douglas bader which was a 20% month peak to trough(I' like that analogy).Admittedly,participation was broader so maybe we won't get the similar moves but from a psychological point of view,histroy says we will.

There was a 20%er in Apr 20 but I'm inclined to ignore that if I'm betting with my own money due to the man made nature of that fiasco.

Heiken Ashi shows trend still firmly in tact.

 

 

 

 

I went and looked at RR stock. Amazed to see they pay no div.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Interesting, but wonder if it's mainly now all about gaining market share, I mean the more customers they have the more important/influential the telecoms players will be when they become an 'arm of the state' - ie defacto tax collectors for the government, hoovering up some of the big profits from the international content providers? ...Unsure how it would technically work, but it's one way for governments to onshore tax! Different/interesting times!!

Exactly it is.Pulls tax onshore,and in Orange SA and others even direct divs to governments as well.

Telcos will get some of the cut one way or another.They have massive power,just they cant use it yet.

[Hardhat]

Who are people invested in in the telco space?

I'm only in Telia atm but looking to expand my sector holdings.

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Who are people invested in in the telco space?

I'm only in Telia atm but looking to expand my sector holdings.

I've got Telia, Voda, Telefonica and a lovely bunch of coconuts diddlydee.

[The Bear of Doom]

Hi, Long time lurker on this thread, both here and on TOS.  I would like to thank all the contributors here, particularly DurhamBorn, for inspiring me to start investing in the Stock Markets.

I must admit that I only set up my trading accounts last April so I missed out on the March 2020 lows, but I haven't done too badly, - I've even made money on the Scottish Share! .

I'm no financial or investing genius so I am not sure whether I will be able to contribute much, though I must admit I have learnt a lot over the years here, and on TOS.

[The Bear of Doom]

8 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I had a good discussion earlier in the week with someone about BT spitting feathers over net neutrality. BT has doubled its capacity in 2 years and more and more of it is being used by about 6 companies (youtube, facebook, netflix, nowtv, amazon video and cant remember what the other one was). Highest ever network usage was this month with the streaming football.

A few years back I went on a tour of a major BT exchange, and they had a room full of servers for Netflix and Google (presumably Youtube), which allows them to take load off the main backbone network.  Prior to the release of the next episode of a popular show it would be uploaded to these servers, and I think they would cache other popular web content on them.  I'm not sure what the financial arrangement for this setup is, but I would imagine that the content providers at least pay for rackspace.

There was some seriously expensive kit there such as ultrafast fibre routers which cost £500k each! (made by Alactel if I remember correctly).

[Presuming Ed]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I went and looked at RR stock. Amazed to see they pay no div.

Well they did for decades but they were suspended when Covid hit aviation. They've been burning through cash while planes were/are grounded. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/rolls-royce-hldg-results-cfo-idUSS8N2JN0DB

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

A few years back I went on a tour of a major BT exchange, and they had a room full of servers for Netflix and Google (presumably Youtube), which allows them to take load off the main backbone network.  Prior to the release of the next episode of a popular show it would be uploaded to these servers, and I think they would cache other popular web content on them.  I'm not sure what the financial arrangement for this setup is, but I would imagine that the content providers at least pay for rackspace.

There was some seriously expensive kit there such as ultrafast fibre routers which cost £500k each! (made by Alactel if I remember correctly).

They pay for this as a service but it still affects local service.

I think iplayer still remains central.

You can check the local caches in your net logs.

I don't know if its still true but certain mobile operators used to give free Netflix or prime etc (whatever they had collocated in their own local servers) to push people towards one streaming platform and save their network.(which they were paid for)

Alcatel kit is good kit, not the best but it is bt after all.

30 years ago bt were teaching grads that the new digital exchanges would have so much free space you would have banks and banks of laserdisc movies that people could dial up and watch and even fast forward  pause and rewind!

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

30 years ago bt were teaching grads that the new digital exchanges would have so much free space you would have banks and banks of laserdisc movies that people could dial up and watch and even fast forward  pause and rewind!

[The Bear of Doom]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

30 years ago bt were teaching grads that the new digital exchanges would have so much free space you would have banks and banks of laserdisc movies that people could dial up and watch and even fast forward  pause and rewind!

One thing the tour guide (one of the senior engineers) did say, was that as soon as they could clear a room of old kit, such as the System X exchanges, they would start installing the new fibre gear, so they were investing a lot of money in fibre capacity at that time.

They were also removing redundant copper wiring from the distribution frames under the legacy copper exchanges and filling large dumpy bags with it, so there is some slight truth in the oft-quoted statement that BT are sitting on a fortune in scrap copper.

[reformed nice guy]

9 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

BT are sitting on a fortune in scrap copper.

The new BT chief exec says there isnt as much copper as you think (but his cousins have the keys and have stripped the joint)

[Juniper]

Hi, another new poster but standard long time lurker. I couldn’t do my first post anywhere but this thread having followed @DurhamBorn from TOS where I used to lurk. Thanks to all for helping me believe I was capable (sometimes!) of investing in more than a pre-selected pension fund. I’m still a novice but I listen to a lot of financial podcasts including some paid, and have an eye on supply chain issues working for a global manufacturer so I’ll try and contribute when I can. Cheers to the best thread on the internet.