Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I can confirm you can buy Poly on Freetrade as of 10 minutes ago.  I'm waiting to see a big spike after I ploughed £50 in.

I bought a bit more EVR yesterday for some reason.  Nice!  May double down on others to help subsidise those losses, including a big one on SGC (note to self, best to panic early)!

[AWW]

Personally, I'm using today's bounce to pare some positions in stocks where I had taken a beating and ended up buying an additional rung or two that I hadn't intended to when setting the ladder at the outset.

This isn't a trader's thread, but this is definitely a trader's market. To paraphrase Keynes, when the market changes, I change my tactics!

[Majorpain]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Not good, as this man says:

 

They might as well change their name to the London Metal Casino after reversing trades they didn't like, its no doubt in their rules that they can do it but once its done the consequences cant be undone.  Almost looks like someone is doing their best to get worldwide trust in the financial system destroyed, and if they keep going like that they are going to succeed. 

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry, I thought you were joking?!...I must be too 'thick skinned'? :-)))

I struggling to tell which one I'm doing these days! 

[Harley]

44 minutes ago, marceau said:

Indeed. There is literally nothing that the UK could get out of Ukraine that it wasn't already getting. The place is of no strategic interest to us whatsoever.

We're engaged in the most stupid, cruel and destructive imperial follies without even having an empire.

There is a huge amount more to things than Ukraine.  A "war" (often with new means) has been going on for a while.  Not the place for me to go on as it's not financial, except "it" really is, the political economy on steroids.  Per Palisades Radio "Now is the time to be paying attention".  But to "that", not "that"!

[JMD]

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Bought his book, haven't read it yet, he's a superb scientist. Notice how he says "I don't know" now and then, despite his stature. Run away from the ones who have all the answers, or definitive answers. It doesn't work like that, see - covid! He also has nothing to gain or lose from this, no dig in the fight. Just curious.

I foxed my ever challenging son with the sea level curve argument before I heard this podcast, I was very excited to hear it repeated by him, so I bought the book to show him. So now the son of a nasty oil man is a climate sceptic, who'd have think it, he's causing ructions in school as every single other kid thinks climate is going to kill them and we've destroyed the planet  

It really is indisputable evidence that we have not really warmed the planet more than it has been doing since the last ice age.

(Please excuse slight thread detour).             Yes I've seen Steven Koonin on other podcasts where I heard him point out that most dinosaurs were herbivores, and that their diet of very large and very abundant plants existed due to higher temperatures, but also because of far more co2 back then. Maybe the co2 was from volcanoes, but it definitely was not man made! CP, not sure how old your son is, but he might find it 'entertaining' (after all you mention he is an aspiring sceptic) to query his teacher to explain this at his next lesson on prehistoric (pre man!) dinosaurs... It is scary but schools and universities are becoming infested by un-critical thinking these days, never mind the blatant and simplistic propaganda.                                                                                                               And talking of propaganda, I note that at Cop26 the Maldives were again presented as being the poor whipping boy - forced to 'soak up' the existential pain emanating from the evil-energy-greedy West. And yet it has been widely known for 10+ years that the islands are not at risk of sinking into the sea.                                                                                                                                                                        (...the politicised manipulative phrase 'sinking into the sea' underlines I think how little we humans really change; ie such heightened phraseology and mythologised narrative has been recounted and used for thousands of years - yes such language has entertainment and parable value, but today is mostly used to scare people and control society!!!)

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

LME went all in yesterday to stop a collapse, cancelling trades between parties to keep everyone liquid and in the game.  Needless to say its not gone down well with the "winning" traders!

Interesting the JPM bailed out Tsingshan last night.

I'm expecting similar for precious metals at some point.  Paper nickel?  Paper gold?  Paper, paper!

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

They might as well change their name to the London Metal Casino after reversing trades they didn't like, its no doubt in their rules that they can do it but once its done the consequences cant be undone.  Almost looks like someone is doing their best to get worldwide trust in the financial system destroyed, and if they keep going like that they are going to succeed. 

They're sucking out the last of the current monetary system (there is no way back) and now the very underpinnings of the system such as trust and law.  IMO, they know these things are not required in the future they have designed for us.

[Majorpain]

15 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm expecting similar for precious metals at some point.  Paper nickel?  Paper gold?  Paper, paper!

Unfortunately I don't think Gold/Silver will be allowed to be seen to "spike", it will start with exchange technical problems and if that doesn't work the plug will be pulled.  The financial revolution will not be televised!

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, JMD said:

(Please excuse slight thread detour).             Yes I've seen Steven Koonin on other podcasts where I heard him point out that most dinosaurs were herbivores, and that their diet of very large and very abundant plants existed due to higher temperatures, but also because of far more co2 back then. Maybe the co2 was from volcanoes, but it definitely was not man made! CP, not sure how old your son is, but he might find it 'entertaining' (after all you mention he is an aspiring sceptic) to query his teacher to explain this at his next lesson on prehistoric (pre man!) dinosaurs... It is scary but schools and universities are becoming infested by un-critical thinking these days, never mind the blatant and simplistic propaganda.                                                                                                               And talking of propaganda, I note that at Cop26 the Maldives were again presented as being the poor whipping boy - forced to 'soak up' the existential pain emanating from the evil-energy-greedy West. And yet it has been widely known for 10+ years that the islands are not at risk of sinking into the sea.                                                                                                                                                                        (...the politicised manipulative phrase 'sinking into the sea' underlines I think how little we humans really change; ie such heightened phraseology and mythologised narrative has been recounted and used for thousands of years - yes such language has entertainment and parable value, but today is mostly used to scare people and control society!!!)

Still never found a green cultist who can explain why the earth supported abundant mega fauna when poisonous CO2 was so high

[Don Coglione]

Dear Vlad,

Any chance you could hold back a touch until the start of the new tax year?

Cheers.

[sancho panza]

54 minutes ago, AWW said:

Personally, I'm using today's bounce to pare some positions in stocks where I had taken a beating and ended up buying an additional rung or two that I hadn't intended to when setting the ladder at the outset.

This isn't a trader's thread, but this is definitely a trader's market. To paraphrase Keynes, when the market changes, I change my tactics!

I've decided to sell XOM today.An 8% position has become a 13% postion or so, and there are some options for taking stuff off the table.Not least putting the stake moeny into Total who are lagging the current rally from both Oct 20 and early Dec 21.

I think this thread has somethign for everyone.Some have a passive strategy,others try and beat the market.Each to their own but it's the richer for the sheer variety of contributors from the inexperienced to the experienced,the generalists to those with specialist knowledge of their industry

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Not good, as this man says:

 

He missed the LSE cancelling trades on Poly between a certain time period the other day because of a 'fat finger' mistake. The problem is if you have arbed a position and then only one side of the two trades is cancelled.

 

[geordie_lurch]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I've decided to sell XOM today.An 8% position has become a 13% postion or so, and there are some options for taking stuff off the table.Not least putting the stake moeny into Total who are lagging the current rally from both Oct 20 and early Dec 21.

I can definitely see your logic there and am tempted to move some things around as I'm currently sat up 38% on all my various XOM shares I laddered however as I already have BP, Shell and Repsol I'm not sure it's worth me taking on another European oil & gas company given what Putin might do next

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I bought a bit more EVR yesterday for some reason.  Nice!  May double down on others to help subsidise those losses, including a big one on SGC (note to self, best to panic early)!

Ex-divi date tomorrow 50 cents

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/evraz-plc-ord-usd0.05

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

They might as well change their name to the London Metal Casino after reversing trades they didn't like, its no doubt in their rules that they can do it but once its done the consequences cant be undone.  Almost looks like someone is doing their best to get worldwide trust in the financial system destroyed, and if they keep going like that they are going to succeed. 

I think it is more that they are desperately deploying every tool to keep the plates spinning minute by minute. As you say the LME will have had this provision in their rules all along, but with no party expecting it to ever be deployed. Yesterdays's price action threatened to bankrupt market makers and hence cause anarchy. That would be the exact situation the provision would have been intended for and so it's use was legitimate. However this all reflects economies and markets are starting to self-destruct. This can't go on much longer, adults will have to step in and bring the Ukraine situation to a resolution.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

The talking heads on Bloomberg did a breaking news on it yesterday and they said we were joinIng the US embargo but unlike them, not doing it straight away, we were going to stagger it over months. I wondered if it was to give BP more time to sell their Rosneft and the price moved up immediately.

I'm hoping these types of 'staggered sanctions' are also to allow thinking time for some of those aggrieved (ie recently financially disadvantaged) Russian oligarchs, etc, who will then hopefully be able to properly 'hatch/et' a plan against Putin... a la Trotsky... though in his particular case I believe it was an ice pick!

[Craig]

31 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Ex-divi date tomorrow 50 cents

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/evraz-plc-ord-usd0.05

So I just spend a pound and get 50c back? What's the catch, other than the risk of it going to zero?

[Castlevania]

57 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I've decided to sell XOM today.An 8% position has become a 13% postion or so, and there are some options for taking stuff off the table.Not least putting the stake moeny into Total who are lagging the current rally from both Oct 20 and early Dec 21.

I think this thread has somethign for everyone.Some have a passive strategy,others try and beat the market.Each to their own but it's the richer for the sheer variety of contributors from the inexperienced to the experienced,the generalists to those with specialist knowledge of their industry

I’ve reduced my positions in Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips the past week. Now have half my original stake. Wouldn’t want to be completely out, but that’s me, however there’s possibly other areas with more immediate upside/less downside. 

What’s the opposite of laddering down? Snaking up?

[M S E Refugee]

15 minutes ago, JMD said:

I'm hoping these types of 'staggered sanctions' are also to allow thinking time for some of those aggrieved (ie recently financially disadvantaged) Russian oligarchs, etc, who will then hopefully be able to properly 'hatch/et' a plan against Putin... a la Trotsky... though in his particular case I believe it was an ice pick!

I'm not sure that Putin is the Villain in all of this.

[kibuc]

5 minutes ago, Craig said:

So I just spend a pound and get 50c back? What's the catch, other than the risk of it going to zero?

Freemarket governments of the West declaring your dividend blood money and confiscating, with interest.

[Democorruptcy]

Just now, Craig said:

So I just spend a pound and get 50c back? What's the catch, other than the risk of it going to zero?

Who knows what going to happen with these Russian shares/divis?

Normally a share price drops by the divi amount on ex-divi day. Personally I've played about with EVR, POLY and FXPO but sold my EVR and used the profit to cover some fun positions in the other two, in case the worst comes to the worst with them.

[marceau]

34 minutes ago, JMD said:

I'm hoping these types of 'staggered sanctions' are also to allow thinking time for some of those aggrieved (ie recently financially disadvantaged) Russian oligarchs, etc, who will then hopefully be able to properly 'hatch/et' a plan against Putin... a la Trotsky... though in his particular case I believe it was an ice pick!

Putin is the only thing keeping those oligarchs in place. They made a deal with him after the Yeltsin debacle to stay out of Russian politics in exchange for keeping their positions. Those that took the deal did very well, those that didn't ended up in exile or in the ground.

If Putin goes, the 'oligarchs' (a very poor description of their actual status) won't last a year. Most of the candidates to replace Putin are more hardline than he is. Some of the more extreme factions, like the Duginists, make Putin look like Theresa May. 

The 'oligarchs own Russia' myth really needs to die.

[CannonFodder]

18 minutes ago, marceau said:

Putin is the only thing keeping those oligarchs in place. They made a deal with him after the Yeltsin debacle to stay out of Russian politics in exchange for keeping their positions. Those that took the deal did very well, those that didn't ended up in exile or in the ground.

If Putin goes, the 'oligarchs' (a very poor description of their actual status) won't last a year. Most of the candidates to replace Putin are more hardline than he is. Some of the more extreme factions, like the Duginists, make Putin look like Theresa May. 

The 'oligarchs own Russia' myth really needs to die.

I think the lack of the quick win in ukraine will hopefully keep the hawks off Putin for a while.

[marceau]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

I think the lack of the quick win in ukraine will hopefully keep the hawks off Putin for a while.

If Putin is replaced forcefully it will be by a hardliner, a terrible outcome for everyone.  Navalny/Kasparov types are entirely western media creations and have no route to power whatsoever.