Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

He's short enough already, don't make him any shorter!...and as for 'going long' on Boris, I think with the number of children he has sired you are too late to the market!

What is it with this thread lately? First i'm told off for victim blaming Putin (I'm exaggerating somewhat for effect), and now you accuse me of lusting after Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson's 'long johnson'!!!               ...For clarity I didn't mention any of those prick'ly(?!) subjects. But please when replying to posts, can we all refrain from disingenuous under-reporting or use of hackneyed journalese?

[Gin]

51 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Tinfoil hat time but with the upcoming runet switchover it might be worth screenshotting your bank balances, share holdings etc etc and Ive taken a couple of months food/fuel money out in cash this last couple of weeks.

@belfastchild do you think Russia is definately switching to their own net and cutting itself from the WWW as suggested below. ?

 

https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/russia-runet-disconnect-ukraine-dns-chernenko-letter/

[SpectrumFX]

14 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They have $1.6 billion in net debt

That certainly adds to the risk.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

That certainly adds to the risk.

is this when I say high risk high reward........ 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, PrincessDrac said:

Mr Alexander Nesis is a Swiss resident with citizenship of Israel, Malta and Russia. More than 50% of interest in Investment Construction Technology (ICT) Group LTD is owned by non-Russian residents.

I would be if I owned POLY. I believe the suspension of Evraz is due to the sanctions on Abramovich enacted this morning, otherwise its an incredible coincidence!...what is interesting in the statement by POLY [above] is that they do not mention Mamut who holds 10% of POLY, is Russian/only hold Russian citizenship, AND to quote wiki :

"Mamut made donations to Boris Yeltsin's 1996 re-election campaign.[15] He was an economic adviser to the chief of the Russian presidential administration, Alexander Voloshin from 1998 to 1999."

If he is not on the governments hit list yet, he will be soon, and I think they will do the same to him/via POLY as they have done to Abramovich this morning.

[belfastchild]

3 minutes ago, Gin said:

@belfastchild do you think Russia is definately switching to their own net and cutting itself from the WWW as suggested below. ?

 

https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/russia-runet-disconnect-ukraine-dns-chernenko-letter/

No idea to be honest. They have been practising it since 2019.
Im more concerned about businesses switching to russian hosting, internal to the country. That would give hackers free reign on everything in the west without affecting russian businesses.
I saw a post on facebook last week where someone had lost a lot of business (small local business) because people were staying away because they employed someone who 'sounded russian' ffs!

5 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

That certainly adds to the risk.

Maybe its just the russian part of the business that owes the dollars? ;-)

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

This is the sort of thing that grips me.People urging companies to pull out of Russia but it's okay for the Germans to buy their gas from them.

Agree, ...and don't forget SHEL being lambasted for buying a cheap initial shipment....

[planit]

Hopefully another fat fingers problem, I had to look 3 times to make sure I wasn't looking at the ADR 

 

 

Would have taken out all the stop losses, I wonder if it's another example of all trades being reversed. Somehow I doubt it this time unless it was Goldman

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Nah.  Just the price for me!  All the analysis in the world whether macro or micro is fine but if it ain't in the price......!  

...oh, oh, and don't forget the promised divi! :-)))

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I'm in agreement with the hedge fund manager who remarked how much better he did moving out of NYC to the sticks and switching off the media.  

..or the retail punter who gave up with managed funds and bought Index ETF's and did better?...well, 85% of the time anyway :-)

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, ...and don't forget SHEL being lambasted for buying a cheap initial shipment....

And now the European refiners can’t get enough heavy oil. See the current price of heating oil (which has increased far more than the price of crude).

[JMD]

4 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I find them very useful thought for getting some insight on the qualitative issues/psychology of the market; you get the quantitative figures elsewhere...just don't believe anything that is written...and definitely don't act upon the "buy now, its a no-brainer" statements!

Personally I just use the 'proxy' Dave Hunter for all stuff psychological, he regularly reminds us that he's somewhat expert in the field, at least when it comes to significant market swing signals, etc. I am currently 30% in cash, but as time goes on waiting for the fabled BK, i find I am increasingly obsessing over the optionality benefits vs opportunity costs of holding onto that cash. Plus paranoia can creep in... what if ive merely become just another one of DHs lab rats!?  (Hmm, maybe all this needs a rethink!)

[MrXxxx]

42 minutes ago, feed said:

True and the cost to the company is way higher than the benefit that the employee sees post deductions.  

 

 

And don't forget the increase in NI contributions for both employee AND employers.

[feed]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

And don't forget the increase in NI contributions for both employee AND employers.

I’m not smart enough to understand if the wage increases are following inflation or leading it.
But wage cost inflation is very much part of the game now, along with commodities and energy. 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Thanks for this comment DB, as on my 'learning journey' I find pointers such as this quite useful; I don't mind 'putting the leg work' in learning [hence why I don't ask for market/sectors/share tips as this doesn't help my foundation understanding], but its easy to find yourself wandering off on the wrong tangent. Regarding understanding cycles are there any resources i.e. web pages, books etc that you would recommend?

Excuse me butting in and maybe not strictly about cycles - but this guy does deep dives into his macro investment thinking... very very long blogs, but proves he does the research, so worth reading I think.                                   https://lt3000.blogspot.com/

[leonardratso]

hmm lse:poly stopped feeding after a vertical small rise 142-->152pence ish

 

[leonardratso]

PS. everyones favourite delivery company herpes is now called EVRI,  which is suspiciously close to EVR and therefore russian and has to be sanctioned.

Of course this being a new company it is no way related to the old shit company herpes, and any complaints about facebook, erm i mean herpes should NOT/NEVER be directed at meta, sorry EVRI.

Note all herpes internet negativity is now null and void since that company no longer exists.

[geordie_lurch]

Nothing to see here

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

The number of people saying that petrol prices are up due to "price gouging" by oil companies makes me want to blow my brains out.

[M S E Refugee]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The number of people saying that petrol prices are up due to "price gouging" by oil companies makes me want to blow my brains out.

They will be pleading for the Government to bring in price controls next.

[M S E Refugee]

Russia may ‘nationalize’ assets of Apple, IKEA & McDonald’s https://www.rt.com/russia/551627-ikea-apple-mcdonalds-nationalize/

[reformed nice guy]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

They will be pleading for the Government to bring in price controls next.

The kites have already been flown....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/inflation-price-controls-time-we-use-it

[steppensheep]

2 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Poly say that 48% of their net income comes from their Kazakhstan operations. If that's true they can hive off all of the Russian operations and be left with a Kazakhstan based operation that's around half the value they were before this mess.

On a back of a fag packet basis that leaves you with a Kazakh based company worth half the pre-invasion value, something like £5 a share.

The way I see it, the current low value comes from the market pricing in the risk of government action to fuck with them. Which they may well do.

It's probably shit or bust from here, and it's certainly not one for the widows and orphans.

Not sure the latest, but was under the impression kazakstan had already been effectively occupied by the russkis (a la Belarus) so I imagine it will end up the same way (unless our glorious media-financial complex  and the various hypocrites in charge decide it will be to their benefit to pretend otherwise.)

[Harley]

I'm listening to this now.  The perspective makes a lot of sense to me as it adresses some of my loose ends.  Just got to the bit about "for the sake of a nail the war was lost".  Time to review my prepping in a lateral thinking sort of way.  

Hopefully concludes with some advice (given he's turned me off getting goats and chickens!). 

PS:  Disclosure, I bought some far east plantations last week! 

[SpectrumFX]

3 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

Not sure the latest, but was under the impression kazakstan had already been effectively occupied by the russkis (a la Belarus) so I imagine it will end up the same way (unless our glorious media-financial complex  and the various hypocrites in charge decide to pretend otherwise for their own benefit).

They're trying to distance themselves from the Russians at the moment, at least publicly. In order to stave off the talk of them being a Russian ally that needs sanctioning. To be honest it's anybody's guess how far the government will go after all the overreach in the covid response.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220306-russia-ally-kazakhstan-permits-large-pro-ukraine-rally-amid-sanctions-fears