Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Loki]

3 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Ps…I am away for a couple of days and I see gold dropped yesterday…..can’t I leave you guys in charge of anything🤦🏻‍♂️😆  

It was Hunter wot did it Sir, I did tell him not to 

[ThoughtCriminal]

This is a great point. They're having to move heaven and earth just to stand still.

 

Doesn't take a crystal ball to see that Europe is fucked medium to long-term.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At least we're no longer pretending that the rule of law exists.

I think the mysterious DOCTOR who is currently withdrawing a shit-ton of precious metals from Bullionvault maybe Russian.

The UK is now a lawless Banana Kingdom.

[Axeman123]

45 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Be interested in the opinion of @moneyscamhere.

For me,if the market is heading in that direction,they suspend all trades until an orderly market can resume.I've got no issue with that as long as it's used to encourage price discovery rather than camouflage it.Unfortunately in this case,I suspect it was used for the latter reason.

I don't think the crazy spike yesterday was true price discovery, but the leverage/options tail wagging the market dog. It is certainly a messy intervention, and smacks of special priviledges. Maybe trading should have been halted earlier.

[Bricormortis]

14 hours ago, Errol said:

Neither gold nor silver have even started yet.

Both need to go above previous ATHs - then the fun can begin. Until then, it's just more of the same.

Higher lows are fine. Still in a bull trend. Dont want it to go parabolic here.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Understanding the cycle and roughly where we are is the key.Then pick the industries likely to get a tail wind,then get a spread of them with ladders,let them come to you.Then go and do something useful,watch signals and data yes,but hours and ours over a company only people who work there truelly inderstand is pointless.

One of the big tools Steve Kaplan uses is insider buying and he is right to do so,if that meets the macro you can bet outside of some black swan your getting close to bottom.

Wish I'd had that advice 30 years ago.

One thing worth noting is that insiders can be massively wrong.I knew a few people reasonably well connected to the banking system in 2007/8 and none of them saw it coming.All lsot a shedload as their RBS/Pick your poison shares went down 95%.

Amazed me how many of them had all their stock market wealth in the company they worked for.

42 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

The problem for the exchange is that when someone defaults, the pain is shared around between the exchange and brokers so everyone shares in the pain equally.  Bailout slush fund was around £1bn IIRC, Chinese guys loss was £8bn and climbing, it would have ruined both exchange and everyone on it if they hadn't pulled the plug.  Shorting anything at the current time is asking for trouble.

I get the whole mutual haircut thing but that's the price you pay for being allowed to work on margin.The thing that gets me is that this player's margin was clearly inadequate and the LME wasn't doing a particularly good job of making sure he wasn't too leveraged.

These places have shedloads of moeny for systems and the fact that one trader could create postions capable of shutting an exchange is indicative of the fact thattrading activity isn't being properly monitored.

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At least we're no longer pretending that the rule of law exists.

Shattering news if true.Not because I give a toss about Abramovich-I don't- but because it looks like due process hasn't been followed and as someone said upthread,if it can happen to someone with millions for lawyers,jsut wait till they start coming for us plebs a la Trudeau.

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Higher lows are fine. Still in a bull trend. Dont want it to go parabolic here.

A week of sideways consolidation at >2000USD/oz to let the miners catch up would suit me down to the ground. Sentiment of "it's rolling over" and "double top, trapdoor opens to 600" would be the cherry on the cake, before another move up.

[Anglepoise]

EVR shares suspended.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/suspension-evraz-plc/15362787

 

The Financial Conduct Authority ("the FCA") temporarily suspends the securities set out below from the Official List effective from 10/03/2022 11:00, in order to protect investors pending clarification of the impact of the UK sanctions:

 

[AWW]

19 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

One thing worth noting is that insiders can be massively wrong.I knew a few people reasonably well connected to the banking system in 2007/8 and none of them saw it coming.All lsot a shedload as their RBS/Pick your poison shares went down 95%.

Amazed me how many of them had all their stock market wealth in the company they worked for.

Back then, I was a fresh-faced engineer at a blue chip tech company.  Lehman's was one of my customers.  I remember vividly on one site visit, the usual trader I spoke to was on holiday, so I spoke to a junior guy.  He had several champagne boxes under his desk.  I remarked that he must have a lot to celebrate and he replied, "no, I'll need them to take all my stuff home when this place goes pop".  I didn't think much of it, but a few days later, sure enough, it collapsed.

It taught me a lesson that has held true for the rest of my career; if you want the truth, ask the monkey, not the organ grinder.

[sancho panza]

This is the sort of thing that grips me.People urging companies to pull out of Russia but it's okay for the Germans to buy their gas from them.

What do the Germans think the Russians are doing with the money? Not buying artillery shells? Incredible double standards here.

Sanctions should mean sanctions if we're going to be lecturing dictators.

Top British law firms are urged to leave Moscow | Daily Mail Online

A leading judge in Ukraine has urged top British law firms to leave Russia after several said their Moscow offices will stay open despite the invasion.

Ivan Mishchenko, a member of Ukraine's supreme court, said London lawyers should 'never, ever have Russian clients again'.

Mr Mishchenko, 40, issued the plea as he announced he had taken arms to fight against Vladimir Putin's army.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Most on those boards are me in my first couple of years investing before i met real experts and learned.Its then i realised and was shown that spending all the time stock picking was why most retail investors under perform,or worse get cleaned out.Understanding the cycle and roughly where we are is the key.Then pick the industries likely to get a tail wind,then get a spread of them with ladders,let them come to you.Then go and do something useful,watch signals and data yes,but hours and ours over a company only people who work there truelly inderstand is pointless.

One of the big tools Steve Kaplan uses is insider buying and he is right to do so,if that meets the macro you can bet outside of some black swan your getting close to bottom.

Nah.  Just the price for me!  All the analysis in the world whether macro or micro is fine but if it ain't in the price......!  

The only difference between me then and now is I look at price (and in a structured way) rather than any narratives.  I'm just a godless jerk in such matters.

And allocations suited to my time of life.  That's the one big thing I don't see coming through in this thread.  It's fun to muck around with a few stocks but I hope there's more to it than that?

Of course, separately, I discuss the true meaning of that fiat price!  And the real "super macro" - like them taking away people's gains from macro bets!

PS:  Ah, just caught up.  It's about those boards.  A happy life is avoiding toxicity in all its forms.  I'm in agreement with the hedge fund manager who remarked how much better he did moving out of NYC to the sticks and switching off the media.  

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Another 'careful what you wish for' issue for the West.The Western media really struggles to understand cultures that don't do democracy.

I think they struggle to understand any other cultures. Ive been to China, Russia, ME, Africa, south america etc etc and people do think differently both culturally and religiously. Ive been right across the US and people there think differently depending on coast/inland blue/red states etc etc. I remember I stayed with one woman in an airbnb in a red state and we got talking over a bottle or two and one of the things she said was about 'these people coming in and telling us how we should live our lives' and she was talking about people from the east coast US and chicago!

One of the things I took away from China and Russia is that it reminded me how Ireland (or my interpretation of the history of Ireland) was, thinking in terms of decades or centuries rather than the US/UK two year election cycle. Now, my impression might be wrong and maybe millenials etc all over are the same but there will still be people in positions of power there that still think like that. Compare those to the western 'leaders' who by their very nature will be weak because they are only looking 6 months, 6 weeks, 6 hours ahead.

Anyway I came on to say Id had a letter on my desk for a month now that I hadnt read. From Virgin media saying my phone line will be cut off in May as I will be moved to their fibre internet telephony service and I need to arrange a technician appointment. That will be some cost reduction exercise.
Interesting to note the 'what happens if theres a power cut or fibre network disruption' paragraph. Lots of nice words but basically says you are cut off. If you need a phone line we will set you up an emergency line. Virgin is a primary carrier so all those piggybacking on all the networks will be the first to be cut in any outage. Something worth bearing in mind if you go for cheap net, mobile or other access from non primary carriers.

Tinfoil hat time but with the upcoming runet switchover it might be worth screenshotting your bank balances, share holdings etc etc and Ive taken a couple of months food/fuel money out in cash this last couple of weeks.

[SpectrumFX]

1 minute ago, PrincessDrac said:

Anyone concerned about Polymetal as it looks like Everaz has been suspended. A clear RNS on the shares and structure.

Shareholder Structure Update

Further to the Russia (Sanctions) (EU Exit) amendments, that came into force on 1 Mach 2022, the Company confirms that it does not consider itself to be an entity owned by or acting on behalf or at the direction of a 'person connected with Russia as defined in Regulation 19A(2) of The Russia (Sanctions) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 and thereby impacted by the current UK capital market sanctions. The Company's largest shareholders as per Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rule (DTR) 5.1.2 R are:

ICT Holding Ltd, a company incorporated and resident in the Republic of Cyprus, which directly and indirectly holds 23.9% interest in the Company as disclosed on 25 September 2020 (link). ICT Holding Ltd (Cyprus) is a 100% subsidiary of Investment Construction Technology (ICT) Group LTD, a company incorporated and resident in the Republic of Cyprus, which in its turn is owned by Mr Alexander Nesis - 47.29% and a number of other persons. None of the shareholders of Investment Construction Technology (ICT) Group LTD is a controlling shareholder. Mr Alexander Nesis is a Swiss resident with citizenship of Israel, Malta and Russia. More than 50% of interest in Investment Construction Technology (ICT) Group LTD is owned by non-Russian residents. BlackRock, Inc. which directly and indirectly holds 10.1% interest in the Company as disclosed on 1 March 2022 (link). Fodina B.V. (ultimate controlling person Renáta Kellnerová), which directly and indirectly holds 3.3% interest in the Company as disclosed on 2 March 2022 (link). Based on free float restrictions adopted by FTSE Russell, the Company does not include ICT Holding Ltd.'s shares as well as shares owned by management and directors into free float. Hence, the free float as of the date of this press-release equals 75.2%.

The Company further confirms that it has not issued any securities since 0:01 on 1 March 2022.

Poly say that 48% of their net income comes from their Kazakhstan operations. If that's true they can hive off all of the Russian operations and be left with a Kazakhstan based operation that's around half the value they were before this mess.

On a back of a fag packet basis that leaves you with a Kazakh based company worth half the pre-invasion value, something like £5 a share.

The way I see it, the current low value comes from the market pricing in the risk of government action to fuck with them. Which they may well do.

It's probably shit or bust from here, and it's certainly not one for the widows and orphans.

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, AWW said:

Back then, I was a fresh-faced engineer at a blue chip tech company.  Lehman's was one of my customers.  I remember vividly on one site visit, the usual trader I spoke to was on holiday, so I spoke to a junior guy.  He had several champagne boxes under his desk.  I remarked that he must have a lot to celebrate and he replied, "no, I'll need them to take all my stuff home when this place goes pop".  I didn't think much of it, but a few days later, sure enough, it collapsed.

It taught me a lesson that has held true for the rest of my career; if you want the truth, ask the monkey, not the organ grinder.

It's fascinating isn't it? It does seem the higher up you go,the deeper the denial gets.I had a friend working at Lehman at the time and he was part of the team that tried to assess the scale of their derivatives exposure post collapse and he jsut said in the end they pretty much just guessed it due to the complexity of some of the instruments and hedges.

The problems were well telegraphed from 2006-Mr Mortgage aka Mark Hansen was at the forefront of it-but you had to be watching him.

The insiders at RBS just didn't want to face the reality that the only reason they were different to Northern Rock was the scale of the problems in absolute terms.

Here he is in his prime.

 

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Anyway I came on to say.....

Your most welcome! 

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This is the sort of thing that grips me.People urging companies to pull out of Russia but it's okay for the Germans to buy their gas from them.

What do the Germans think the Russians are doing with the money? Not buying artillery shells? Incredible double standards here.

Sanctions should mean sanctions if we're going to be lecturing dictators.

Top British law firms are urged to leave Moscow | Daily Mail Online

A leading judge in Ukraine has urged top British law firms to leave Russia after several said their Moscow offices will stay open despite the invasion.

Ivan Mishchenko, a member of Ukraine's supreme court, said London lawyers should 'never, ever have Russian clients again'.

Mr Mishchenko, 40, issued the plea as he announced he had taken arms to fight against Vladimir Putin's army.

He seems to know about such things.

[feed]

Anecdotal, my partner just took a 6.5% pay rise, with a £4k bonus.  Much more than she was expecting and more than she's had before from the company in 10 years of being there.   Insurance industry and they've been struggling with staff leaving / unable to recruit.

I took around 5%, but as part of my job i get to see what the impact to the company is in actual costs and we're looking at headcount costs increasing by around 20% year on year, across a mix of UK/DE/ES. including fringe and taxes.  

Wage cost inflation very much in the system.  
 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At least we're no longer pretending that the rule of law exists.

Like to see them try that at Millwall!

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

For a little light relief interlude...

 

 

That's not Paul Hogan is it?! ...don't think it is btw, but he was funny. He might even have included some finance puns... 'you call that a falling knife, nah this is a falling knife!!'

[marceau]

15 minutes ago, feed said:

Anecdotal, my partner just took a 6.5% pay rise, with a £4k bonus.  Much more than she was expecting and more than she's had before from the company in 10 years of being there.   Insurance industry and they've been struggling with staff leaving / unable to recruit.

I took around 5%, but as part of my job i get to see what the impact to the company is in actual costs and we're looking at headcount costs increasing by around 20% year on year, across a mix of UK/DE/ES. including fringe and taxes.  

Wage cost inflation very much in the system.  
 

Tax brackets haven't shifted though.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At least we're no longer pretending that the rule of law exists.

20 grand travel max allowance for away games.
I guess the players will be driving their own cars over to Lille next week then and even if they do get through no tickets allowed to be sold for the next round.
 

[feed]

1 minute ago, marceau said:

Tax brackets haven't shifted though.

True and the cost to the company is way higher than the benefit that the employee sees post deductions.  

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At least we're no longer pretending that the rule of law exists.

Abramovich is also a Portuguese and Israeli Citizen, I wonder if it would be possible for him to renounce his Russian Citizenship to get around the sanctions.

Although this would probably piss Vlad off.

[Castlevania]

36 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Poly say that 48% of their net income comes from their Kazakhstan operations. If that's true they can hive off all of the Russian operations and be left with a Kazakhstan based operation that's around half the value they were before this mess.

On a back of a fag packet basis that leaves you with a Kazakh based company worth half the pre-invasion value, something like £5 a share.

The way I see it, the current low value comes from the market pricing in the risk of government action to fuck with them. Which they may well do.

It's probably shit or bust from here, and it's certainly not one for the widows and orphans.

They have $1.6 billion in net debt

[JMD]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

He's short enough already, don't make him any shorter!...and as for 'going long' on Boris, I think with the number of children he has sired you are too late to the market!

What is it with this thread lately? First i'm told off for victim blaming Putin (I'm exaggerating somewhat for effect), and now you accuse me of lusting after Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson's 'long johnson'!!!               ...For clarity I didn't mention any of those prick'ly(?!) subjects. But please when replying to posts, can we all refrain from disingenuous under-reporting or use of hackneyed journalese?