Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

URA, i made fantastic profits over the years,but the government/EU decided to protect me from investments without a KIDD so now i cant invest in it,or COPEX and many others.Funny enough it was the start of capital controls,cant be hedging sterling we want to print it away.

i remember that, i made some good money on URA as well when we could trade it, i think some uranium miner shut down and affected supply enough to pump up the rest at one point.

[Bobthebuilder]

My ISA transfer landed yesterday, started off with a bit of Imperial (ex divi). Going to take plenty of time and build some divi payers first.

Weak link in my house was the back door, a bit draughty, so had the guy around today and got a quote for a nice new wooden one.

Wife is on board with the solid fuel burner, so that's a go for the summer.

Trying to be positive amongst all the doom and gloom.

A mate of mine has given me a spare gas meter, might just come in handy to have 2.

[SillyBilly]

2 x diesel related increases today. One from a IBC (intermediate bulk container) and drum cleaning company who uses diesel generators and another from a haulier. Both cited unsustainable business models at the current diesel price.

And the astonishing thing is the government is pressing ahead with red diesel rebate reform in UK so whole swathes of industry will be chucked into the bear pit at the worst possible time. On top of insane current diesel prices (red and white) they will now be paying 46.81 pence per litre more from April. And this is to help the environment. Given there is almost no alternative economic solution to diesel for tractors, mining vehicles, site construction vehicles etc. then what we have is a tax raid pure and simple. They will switch from red to white with zero difference to the environment and the State grabbing ever more cash.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My ISA transfer landed yesterday, started off with a bit of Imperial (ex divi). Going to take plenty of time and build some divi payers first.

Weak link in my house was the back door, a bit draughty, so had the guy around today and got a quote for a nice new wooden one.

Wife is on board with the solid fuel burner, so that's a go for the summer.

Trying to be positive amongst all the doom and gloom.

A mate of mine has given me a spare gas meter, might just come in handy to have 2.

Has he got another spare?

Just now, Phil said:

Has he got another spare?

Obviously asking for me, as I have no friends.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Got my Council tax bill through today as well, about 5% rise here in London.

Not received mine yet. When it arrives I'll open it in the garden using techniques usually employed by bomb disposal operatives.

[DurhamBorn]

Added more Latin America today laddered up on this as price is well above my other entries.Im expecting big increases in equity prices and currency against sterling.Likely a treble on the cards over the cycle including both.Macro set up is the best iv seen for Brazil in decades for instance.

[Castlevania]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Added more Latin America today laddered up on this as price is well above my other entries.Im expecting big increases in equity prices and currency against sterling.Likely a treble on the cards over the cycle including both.Macro set up is the best iv seen for Brazil in decades for instance.

Concerned about Presidential Elections in Brazil?

[marceau]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

So don't ever let them tell you "how were we supposed to know, who could have seen this coming". Don't accept it. This is on them, and it's going to be messy.

This is exactly what they said about the financial crisis. There were plenty of people issuing warnings, but none of them had political influence so they were ignored or not even heard in the first place. Cut to a decade later and the Hollywood version of events is now considered fact thanks to The Big Short and Margin Call. Those films lie by omission, a favorite tactic of our media.

They'll do the same with Covid as well.

[Pip321]

13 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Ps…I am away for a couple of days and I see gold dropped yesterday…..can’t I leave you guys in charge of anything🤦🏻‍♂️😆  

 

9 hours ago, Loki said:

It was Hunter wot did it Sir, I did tell him not to 

No worries…easy mistake to make. I am back after being away in Birmingham for a couple of days and will start catching up with emails first thing.

I left you a simple watching brief on my little punt on Evraz….pretty sure you can’t have messed that up. Catch up tomorrow 🤔

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

No worries…easy mistake to make. I am back after being away in Birmingham for a couple of days and will start catching up with emails first thing.

I left you a simple watching brief on my little punt on Evraz….pretty sure you can’t have messed that up. Catch up tomorrow 🤔

no sir, your evraz is toootalllly safe with us sir.

Sincerely. R.Abramovich.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

No worries…easy mistake to make. I am back after being away in Birmingham for a couple of days and will start catching up with emails first thing.

I left you a simple watching brief on my little punt on Evraz….pretty sure you can’t have messed that up. Catch up tomorrow 🤔

OK, bye for now...see ya then....

[MrXxxx]

Been reading around ETF's, realised that the TER between them can vary due to some subsidising the fees via lending out of the underlying equities...what are peoples opinions on this?...some in their document quote maximum lending levels, is there an acceptable ceiling for this?

I also then found this [https://www.etfstream.com/features/etf-lending-an-even-more-lucrative-approach-than-securities-lending/]

....basically lending out the whole ETF rather than its components so that people can short the whole ETF...OK, logical and not a 'million miles' away from the above/what is done with 'normal' equities anyway BUT I noted that it mentioned  AJ Bell is involved in this. I noted others on here have mentioned this broker before, so went off to investigate their site to see what info I could find on this, and basically found nothing...do any others know anymore about this and/or is it 'buried' in AJ Bell's T&C as a way of keeping their fees lower than competitors?

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Concerned about Presidential Elections in Brazil?

No,too much tailwind for the economy.

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Safe to say this will be my best ever return on investment:

Now to find out how it got into my portfolio...

looks a classy operation with one bloke working and 5 directors supervising.

https://www.flynickel.com

cutting edge website as well.

Maybe it was one of those spare change charity offers you accidentally accepted.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's the third time I've heard Brazil today from investors I respect, how very interesting. The other two are Michael Oliver and Lyn Alden 🤔

I think some is in the price already,but lots more to go for.I have a decent position already doing well,but wanted a bigger slice.I was tempted to buy more direct holdings,but just used the Blackrock fund.This dislocation is superb for them.They suffer without inflation due to large poor population etc,but everything is turning for them now.Could be one to try to hold right through the cycle.Currency looks a nice kicker on top.

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah I'll be selling it tomorrow, looks like it was split out of a tsx minnow. 68,000% is enough!

go on, push it to 100,000% or bust, you know you want to.

on a long enough timeline......

Holly : They're from Earth.

Lister : That's 3 million years away.

Holly : They're from the Norweb Federation.

Lister : What's that?

Holly : The North Western Electricity Board. They want you, Dave.

Lister : Me? Why? What for?

Holly : For your crimes against humanity.

Lister : You what?

Holly : It seems when you left Earth, 3 million years ago, you left two half-eaten German sausages on a plate in your kitchen. Do you know what happens to sausages left unattended for 3 million years?

Lister : Yeah, they go mouldy.

Holly : Your sausages, Dave, now cover seven-eights of the Earth's surface. Also, you left £17.50 in your bank account. Thanks to compound interest, you now own 98% of all the world's wealth. And because you've hoarded it for 3 million years, nobody's got any money except for you and Norweb.

Lister : Why Norweb?

Holly : You left a light on in the bathroom. I've got a final demand here for £180 billion.

Lister : £180 billion? You're kidding?

Holly : [wearing a silly face mask]  April fool.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Is that Boris Johnson following his most recent Skype meeting where Putin told him where to 'get off'?

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, AWW said:

On the subject of uranium miners... I have some Yellow Cake, but don't like to put all my eggs in one basket. Does anyone have any recommendations for a uranium miners ETF?

URA,

URA | Global X Uranium ETF - Investing.com

[JimmyTheBruce]

11 hours ago, Anglepoise said:

EVR shares suspended.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/suspension-evraz-plc/15362787

 

The Financial Conduct Authority ("the FCA") temporarily suspends the securities set out below from the Official List effective from 10/03/2022 11:00, in order to protect investors pending clarification of the impact of the UK sanctions:

 

I simply don't know what I'd do without all these benevolent organisations protecting me.

[leonardratso]

19 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

URA,

URA | Global X Uranium ETF - Investing.com

cant trade it anywhere, no KIID

but i suppose you can pull ideas from the breakdown, i did a lot of cameco in the past, they were quite good, possibly even better now with the ruskys threatening to cut supply.

Canucks i think they were, cant remember.

 

 

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

2 x diesel related increases today. One from a IBC (intermediate bulk container) and drum cleaning company who uses diesel generators and another from a haulier. Both cited unsustainable business models at the current diesel price.

And the astonishing thing is the government is pressing ahead with red diesel rebate reform in UK so whole swathes of industry will be chucked into the bear pit at the worst possible time. On top of insane current diesel prices (red and white) they will now be paying 46.81 pence per litre more from April. And this is to help the environment. Given there is almost no alternative economic solution to diesel for tractors, mining vehicles, site construction vehicles etc. then what we have is a tax raid pure and simple. They will switch from red to white with zero difference to the environment and the State grabbing ever more cash.

I was thinking about this today as I filled up Mrs P's car with £100 of shell divis.

So tax is 68% of the price of a litre of fuel is tax.68%..........and people think that's price gouging by Shell rather than benny gouging or LFT gouging or furlough gouging

 

How much fuel tax is on petrol and diesel? - Ask the Car Expert

How much does fuel really cost?

What we pay at the pumps is made up of multiple elements. Of the 113.26p, the cost of the fuel itself (getting it out of the ground, refining it and transporting it) is a mere 36.43p/litre for petrol. Diesel is 40.48p/litre

How much is fuel tax?

Currently, the government takes 57.95p/litre in duty on petrol and diesel. This is what you hear the chancellor of the exchequer talking about during each year’s budget.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Been reading around ETF's, realised that the TER between them can vary due to some subsidising the fees via lending out of the underlying equities...what are peoples opinions on this?...some in their document quote maximum lending levels, is there an acceptable ceiling for this?

I also then found this [https://www.etfstream.com/features/etf-lending-an-even-more-lucrative-approach-than-securities-lending/]

....basically lending out the whole ETF rather than its components so that people can short the whole ETF...OK, logical and not a 'million miles' away from the above/what is done with 'normal' equities anyway BUT I noted that it mentioned  AJ Bell is involved in this. I noted others on here have mentioned this broker before, so went off to investigate their site to see what info I could find on this, and basically found nothing...do any others know anymore about this and/or is it 'buried' in AJ Bell's T&C as a way of keeping their fees lower than competitors?

I created a thread on this and much more so long ago it seems to have been archived! 

[sancho panza]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

cant trade it anywhere, no KIID

 

I just checked and you can put an order  on on saxobank. @Harley might know why,anyone else?

[sancho panza]

Here's the money shot.WHat the average basement dweller has known for some time,99% of people are getting poorer at varying rates.

Real Wages Decline 12 Times in the Last 14 Months - Mish Talk - Global Economic Trend Analysis

Key Points

• For all workers, real (inflation-adjusted) wages declined nearly 0.8 percent in February.
• For all workers,  real  wages declined for the 12th time in 14 months.
• For production and nonsupervisory workers, real wages declined nearly 0.6 percent in February.
• For production and nonsupervisory workers, real wages declined for the 10th time in the last 14 months.   

 

The CPI has been on a tear. It is rising faster than wages for over a year accountingfor the drop in real wages.

 

Real Wage Key Points 

• Real year-over-year wages have fallen 11 times in the past year. 
• For all employees, real wages are down 2.58% in the past year.
• For production and nonsupervisory workers, real wages are down 1.86% in the past year.

 

Key Hourly Earnings Points 

• In February of 1973 real hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers were $9.38 per hour. 
• In February of 2022 real hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers were $9.63 per hour. 
• In the last 49 years, real hourly wages have risen by a grand total of 25 cents per hour. 

In the last 49 years wages have risen about half of a penny per hour per year, and that assumes you believe the CPI is accurate. 

The Benefits of Running the CPI Hot

Meanwhile, Fed jackasses, especially Chicago Fed President Praises the "Benefits of Running the Economy Hot"

Inflation benefits those who hold assets and those with first access to money. 

The rest benefit by a half-penny per hour for 49 years. The upcoming demand destruction from this policy and the pending stock market crash will be massive.

No one will be praising the Fed after this debacle. 

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

Mish

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I just checked and you can put an order  on on saxobank. @Harley might know why,anyone else?

I wouldnt mind so much if the KID was usually any good, but when you look at one its usually just a shit cut and paste job with some words changed and maybe a risk factor slid left/right, fucking useless to be honest.Some of the best performing stocks ive seen have terrible risk and/or sustainability ratings - usually PM miners.