Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Added more Latin America today laddered up on this as price is well above my other entries.Im expecting big increases in equity prices and currency against sterling.Likely a treble on the cards over the cycle including both.Macro set up is the best iv seen for Brazil in decades for instance.

We should get a flat on the Copacabana or Ipanema. I'll happily manage the investment. Belo Horizonte is mining country and much cheaper but far from the beach.

[Pinkpanther]

44 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I was thinking about this today as I filled up Mrs P's car with £100 of shell divis.

So tax is 68% of the price of a litre of fuel is tax.68%..........and people think that's price gouging by Shell rather than benny gouging or LFT gouging or furlough gouging

 

How much fuel tax is on petrol and diesel? - Ask the Car Expert

How much does fuel really cost?

What we pay at the pumps is made up of multiple elements. Of the 113.26p, the cost of the fuel itself (getting it out of the ground, refining it and transporting it) is a mere 36.43p/litre for petrol. Diesel is 40.48p/litre

How much is fuel tax?

Currently, the government takes 57.95p/litre in duty on petrol and diesel. This is what you hear the chancellor of the exchequer talking about during each year’s budget.

Cheers - Vat at 20% is lumped on to the production cost and fuel duty.. 

[Don Coglione]

9 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

We should get a flat on the Copacabana or Ipanema. I'll happily manage the investment. Belo Horizonte is mining country and much cheaper but far from the beach.

If you have been to Brazil and smelled the air (not the coffee...), you would be balls-deep...

[JREWING]

16 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

As I have said before on a number of occasions divis are not guaranteed, and as March 2020 demonstrated to us all even Blue Chips feel no reluctance about cutting them...

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I simply don't know what I'd do without all these benevolent organisations protecting me.

and looking at the 'hash up' they are making it looks as though they need protection from themselves.

[Pip321]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Make that 4 separate quality investors to mention Brazil in a 12 hour period! The EWZ chart looks short term bearish, I think it might catch a ladder or two. Definitely a buy and hold for me.

I think Brazil is a good call.

So the question is how do you best protect the value and returns of assets invested abroad in a place like Brazil?

Polymetal wasn’t a ‘joke’ share a few weeks ago, indeed it wasn’t even a particularly speculative one but rather a 9% yielding FTSE 100 gold miner with mines across several countries.

I see a good mention of a Blackrock fund (rather than direct investment in a firm) which offers some spread of risk…..but I wonder how such funds look today for equivalent Russian investments.

The above isn’t to deter, isn’t to be contrarian for the sake of it…..but something I would be considering. Totally appreciate  global exposure shares rather than concentrating risk. 

[Hardhat]

14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Good results from K&S earlier. €0.20 a share dividend announced.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/potash-miner-kss-shares-surge-dividend-strong-cash-flow-2022-03-10/

 

Damn I sold mine as I was up 120%. Should have checked the results day !!!!

[MrXxxx]

44 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I think Brazil is a good call.

So the question is how do you best protect the value and returns of assets invested abroad in a place like Brazil?

Polymetal wasn’t a ‘joke’ share a few weeks ago, indeed it wasn’t even a particularly speculative one but rather a 9% yielding FTSE 100 gold miner with mines across several countries.

I see a good mention of a Blackrock fund (rather than direct investment in a firm) which offers some spread of risk…..but I wonder how such funds look today for equivalent Russian investments.

The above isn’t to deter, isn’t to be contrarian for the sake of it…..but something I would be considering. Totally appreciate  global exposure shares rather than concentrating risk. 

I think this makes a good point, and one to consider in your investing approach. I feel the best approach is probably to go for a core-satellite type approach, where you have diversification within a sector via an ETF [and obviously pay the additional costs of TER], and then focus upon a few satellite equities where you can be sure of their stability by researching their previous/current history; looking at POLY in this case its mines are based in Kaz and Russia, hardly two countries with stable pasts in the last 30 years. So for example if we look at PM miners, go for say GDGB ETF and then buy some individual Canadian PM miners.

As always, this is just my opinion based on my limited financial experience [far less than most on here] so DYOR.

[wherebee]

27 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think this makes a good point, and one to consider in your investing approach. I feel the best approach is probably to go for a core-satellite type approach, where you have diversification within a sector via an ETF [and obviously pay the additional costs of TER], and then focus upon a few satellite equities where you can be sure of their stability by researching their previous/current history; looking at POLY in this case its mines are based in Kaz and Russia, hardly two countries with stable pasts in the last 30 years. So for example if we look at PM miners, go for say GDGB ETF and then buy some individual Canadian PM miners.

As always, this is just my opinion based on my limited financial experience [far less than most on here] so DYOR.

Canada recently threw away 200 years of property rights laws and seized assets without due process.  You think in a gold run they won't seize miners output?

[MrXxxx]

9 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Canada recently threw away 200 years of property rights laws and seized assets without due process.  You think in a gold run they won't seize miners output?

Agree, but it was the best example of gold miners that came to mind at the time. That said, the Trudeau thing is a 'blip' and something he is regretting already.

[Pip321]

35 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think this makes a good point, and one to consider in your investing approach. I feel the best approach is probably to go for a core-satellite type approach, where you have diversification within a sector via an ETF [and obviously pay the additional costs of TER], and then focus upon a few satellite equities where you can be sure of their stability by researching their previous/current history; looking at POLY in this case its mines are based in Kaz and Russia, hardly two countries with stable pasts in the last 30 years. So for example if we look at PM miners, go for say GDGB ETF and then buy some individual Canadian PM miners.

As always, this is just my opinion based on my limited financial experience [far less than most on here] so DYOR.

 

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Canada recently threw away 200 years of property rights laws and seized assets without due process.  You think in a gold run they won't seize miners output?

Personally I don’t think Canada would….but I completely take the point.

I mentioned before that Warren Buffet always seemed to me to be far too US centric but that he liked things on his doorstep. I guess it means if stuff goes really bad in the US (ie wars, asset confiscation etc) then money would only be one of his worries. 

I imagine the answer to this is diversification and proportionately….it’s just Evraz and Poly will really smart for some people and understandably maybe bring them back into their shells for a while. But I would still want to see those ideas because as I say I think Brazil looks very interesting  

Me? I was not impacted much but am now restricting my investments to North Yorkshire…see, still chuckling despite Poly.🤦🏻‍♂️😆

[ThoughtCriminal]

13 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Canada recently threw away 200 years of property rights laws and seized assets without due process.  You think in a gold run they won't seize miners output?

Exactly.

 

I think all assumptions about the respect for rule of law in western countries needs revisiting urgently.

 

Anyone who thinks they won't do as they please when it suits them needs their head examining.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Damn I sold mine as I was up 120%. Should have checked the results day !!!!

 

[geordie_lurch]

Seems like the LME's actions will have some consequences after all

EDIT: Archive.is link to the Bloomberg article: https://archive.ph/l04O2

From the Bloomberg piece

Quote

Sadrian, like many market veterans, was shocked by the LME’s decision to suspend nickel trading on Tuesday morning and cancel all the transactions from earlier in the day. Now, in the middle of a scorching bull market that’s lifted prices to record highs, some in the industry are simply deciding to walk away.

“The LME has been my bread and butter for a very long time, so it’s heartbreaking,” said Sadrian, whose Commodities World Capital fund is up about 120% this year. “Given the current uncertainty, I am exiting all of my LME positions, despite being ragingly bullish on copper.”

 

[Harley]

11 hours ago, Harley said:

I created a thread on this and much more so long ago it seems to have been archived! 

Do you think the order would go through?  Depends at which point they check.  No KID no deal for UK resident.  Anything else is a mistake.  Many brokers overseas also stop you, even if they let you open an account.  I haven't tried it but apparently there is the exercised options route.  But I just redefined the problem - buy some of the key holdings as stocks, each at the right time, and avoid the extra costs and counterparty risk.

[DoINeedOne]

Been thinking the last week or so about investments and money in general and adding to rules, the Canada thing of ceasing bank accounts, Russia, the post above about the LME cancelling trades, apparently some exchanges only allowing selling on Russian stocks

Its a very fucked market

This clip where Jim Grant mentions his friend who was a gold trader did well but killed himself i assume after how he mentioned gold dropping 30+% during the Lehman drama as gold was used for liquidity

 

[Harley]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Make that 4 separate quality investors to mention Brazil in a 12 hour period! The EWZ chart looks short term bearish, I think it might catch a ladder or two. Definitely a buy and hold for me.

I'd say weekly bearish, monthly on the up, and who cares about the daily!  A very common sight atm.  Just the way I look at things.  DYOR! 

I've always used LTAM ETF given problems with market access to buy some individual shares but have reached out to some trusts if they have materially better yields.

I'm beginning to go for individual country ETFs both here and for emerging markets.  I'd need to get a better feel to decide on which level to invest at.  Same issue for commodities. 

Maybe both, but the more general ETFs for those more buy and hold accounts I don't look at much and the more granular ones for my more active account (still waiting for my IB ISA!).

PS:  Just seen @MrXxxx post re. Satellite investing.  Similar/same approach.  The boy is one to watch! 

[Bricormortis]

 

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think some is in the price already,but lots more to go for.I have a decent position already doing well,but wanted a bigger slice.I was tempted to buy more direct holdings,but just used the Blackrock fund.This dislocation is superb for them.They suffer without inflation due to large poor population etc,but everything is turning for them now.Could be one to try to hold right through the cycle.Currency looks a nice kicker on top.

I cant get my head arond the implications of " gbp hedged " option  available on the Blackrock Latin America fund. Any thoughts please ? I understand this protects against currency fluctuation but could hedging work against a gbp investor in some circumstances eg increase in value of foreign currency against GBP.

[wherebee]

 

A good twitter thread of why the LME actions were basic bandit behaviour.  It's the sort of thing that has gone on for ever in mainland China, and why HK was so successful - because contract law and regulatory oversight was (relatively) honest.  All the trade into China went through HK because nobody could trust any mainland court or institution.

China has chinafied the wests financial systems.  

Return OF capital is number one now, for me.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

I think Brazil is a good call.

So the question is how do you best protect the value and returns of assets invested abroad in a place like Brazil?

Polymetal wasn’t a ‘joke’ share a few weeks ago, indeed it wasn’t even a particularly speculative one but rather a 9% yielding FTSE 100 gold miner with mines across several countries.

I see a good mention of a Blackrock fund (rather than direct investment in a firm) which offers some spread of risk…..but I wonder how such funds look today for equivalent Russian investments.

The above isn’t to deter, isn’t to be contrarian for the sake of it…..but something I would be considering. Totally appreciate  global exposure shares rather than concentrating risk. 

You can trade individual company risk for counterparty, etc risk.  Funds do get closed and ETFs have only been tested once and failed for me.  I stear more towards a spread of "good" companies but do also help run an ETF/Fund only portfolio which I actually enjoy more.  I personally have no problem managing a large number of stocks.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

 

Personally I don’t think Canada would….but I completely take the point.

I mentioned before that Warren Buffet always seemed to me to be far too US centric but that he liked things on his doorstep. I guess it means if stuff goes really bad in the US (ie wars, asset confiscation etc) then money would only be one of his worries. 

I imagine the answer to this is diversification and proportionately….it’s just Evraz and Poly will really smart for some people and understandably maybe bring them back into their shells for a while. But I would still want to see those ideas because as I say I think Brazil looks very interesting  

Me? I was not impacted much but am now restricting my investments to North Yorkshire…see, still chuckling despite Poly.🤦🏻‍♂️😆

I think this has legs given the geo politics which looks likely to generate geo-fencing!  Just as the smart money sees ex-USA as being better for equity performance!

PS:  On reflection, no just the US.

[DurhamBorn]

10 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

 

I cant get my head arond the implications of " gbp hedged " option  available on the Blackrock Latin America fund. Any thoughts please ?

Yes,GDP hedged means you dont gain of lose on sterling falling or rising against the currencies in South America,usually a good way to buy their stocks given they usually lose value faster than sterling,however in this rare cycle i think a bad things as their currencies should outperform sterling.GDP hedged means you make no opinion on currency,only the stocks,none gdp hedged means you think sterling will fall and those stocks will rise.

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, wherebee said:

 

A good twitter thread of why the LME actions were basic bandit behaviour.  It's the sort of thing that has gone on for ever in mainland China, and why HK was so successful - because contract law and regulatory oversight was (relatively) honest.  All the trade into China went through HK because nobody could trust any mainland court or institution.

China has chinafied the wests financial systems.  

Return OF capital is number one now, for me.

Talking of China, I've now sold out except for a fund.  Jonathan Davis was warning about your holdings but maybe he got the wrong country!  Anyways, there is geo-political risk so risk off for me (i.e. only one holding to dump, plus UK trading hours).  Pssd though as there's good individual value there IMO.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,GDP hedged means you dont gain of lose on sterling falling or rising against the currencies in South America,usually a good way to buy their stocks given they usually lose value faster than sterling,however in this rare cycle i think a bad things as their currencies should outperform sterling.GDP hedged means you make no opinion on currency,only the stocks,none gdp hedged means you think sterling will fall and those stocks will rise.

I personally avoid as currency is a pair trade for me.  Quite often for me a stock will rise in LC but not in GBP but also vv so the pressure is in for top alpha.  So much so I sometimes wonder if I'm really trading forex rather than stocks!  I also find an established portfolio a hedge.  However, all my bills are currently in GBP!  Net, net, whatever!  I just KIS in such circumstances!

[Harley]

Is today when Russia "disconnects" from the internet?  Asking as my PC was making a buzzing sound on boot up this morning!