Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[CannonFodder]

32 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

youve no chance, which lender in their right mind would go that high without huge collateral,  you'll be telling me next that some fucking idiot is offering to pay the worlds energy bills with my NI contributions, hahaha laughable. oh wait....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603029/Liz-Truss-U-turns-Russian-energy-compensation-plan.html

She is clueless, really gone down in my opinion in last few months.

Still gets her off the hook negotiating NI protocol with EU.

[MrXxxx]

20 hours ago, Harley said:

I'd say weekly bearish, monthly on the up, and who cares about the daily!  A very common sight atm.

I don't think its human nature though, we all like to think we get something for nothing/are winners, hence the success of Pound shops and gambling...investing [and buying shares] has made me appreciate that in myself...add to this the fear of FOMO, a very strong emotion to avoid/control, even when your inner spirit it telling you likewise.

20 hours ago, Harley said:

I'm beginning to go for individual country ETFs both here and for emerging markets.  I'd need to get a better feel to decide on which level to invest at.  Same issue for commodities. 

Maybe both, but the more general ETFs for those more buy and hold accounts I don't look at much and the more granular ones for my more active account

I am beginning to think using both to create a hybrid portfolio is the way to go, especially for a longer-term 'buy & hold' approach, and adjusting to the macro theme/narrative that you are observing. In addition, I feel they may offer better cost savings/returns where overseas stocks are concerned rather than buying the individual ones, especially if you factor in the Forex and not knowing the local market; don't have an quantitative data to support this but it would be interesting though. You can then buy home based stocks to 'play' individual short term themes/trades if you have the time/desire.

 

20 hours ago, Harley said:

The boy is one to watch!

Mmm, 'I talk a good game' but don't have my Italian supercar yet...or even an Italian pizza oven! :-)))

[snaga]

11 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

London property...

much of the properties are held by shell companies, making it very difficult to identify the owners. Not just to hide it from UK, but from their own governments.

[Pip321]

19 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Polite reminder.

This is a macro thread.

There's a trading thread:

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/forum/21-shares-trading/

Thanks and Appreciated. Genuinely  

Not defending my actual discussion about trading and just had a look at the trading forum. It’s a true trading forum is about trading speculatively, ideas and useful thoughts.

This thread mentions laddering, top slicing and some movement of funds…so I am getting my red card out ready 😆 

Joking apart, my thoughts on my old Lloyds (in my example) are evolving a little different. More about ‘how’ to hold ‘investments’ in during these unprecedented times rather than necessarily whether to hold them. Understand in my original question that is a bit blurred but it was really what was driving my thoughts.

So you are right my query is about tactics and timings but kinda sits between trading and investing. Albeit more trading.

I have held these Lloyds untouched for a decade so not a renowned trader. I am questioning whether I start selling at certain points of news, events or even a little rally…knowing that uncertain times could significantly alter values. FOMO has always stopped that sale the that’s the question I am asking myself…is potentially losing 3% next week worth the risk of losing 50% over the next 3 weeks  

It applies to anyone holding large amounts even in any solid blue chip highlighted in this macro thread….ie not whether they should hold them (because we agree they should) but whether there should be more top slicing, laddering, chopping and changing at the moment.  

My big PruFund is completely untradeable and it’s completely useless at times like this with real uncertainty. I ask to withdraw or change funds and they will adjust the value with a penalty and make me wait a month…so it is really too late to react unless I believe a true BK is coming.

I take your point completely. I like to keep things fairly jovial (except serious politics and bad media coverage which genuinely annoys me) and accept the challenge and reminder.

…….and now reading back ‘I protest too much’ 😆

[marceau]

9 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

She is clueless, really gone down in my opinion in last few months.

Still gets her off the hook negotiating NI protocol with EU.

She's an Oxford PPE drone. Honestly what were people expecting?

[DurhamBorn]

11 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Think of the mansion gas and leccy bills tho

Distribution cycle.Its a huge part of this,big things sold down for smaller things.Big houses a complete liability unless you use them for renting out rooms or multi-generational living.Big cars the same.Likely in the budget Dishy will chuck more money at bennies making the problem worse.Too many comsuming not enough producing is the cause of the inflation,funded by governments monetising welfare budgets for over a decade.

Iv been using the last few years buying up tools,quality clothes etc 2nd hand.Investing is one thing,but being able to do as many jobs as you can yourself and cook well are going to be huge things for the cycle.We knew on here we would get pure inflation right at the de-complex end and thats exactly what we have.

Olive oil in Aldi,£1.89 December,then £1.99 Feb,£2.19 now.Iv a years supply at £1.89,a 15% return on my capital already.

[marceau]

10 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think the politicos are aware that everything will fall apart so CBDC is their weapon of choice.

The oiks won't rebel if you can turn off their food, heating, stop them travelling,switxh off their social media, turn off their sky & Netflix...

The covid passport was the thin end of the wedge and the best way to get older people to use it.

They are going to create the largest black market in human history.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 minutes ago, marceau said:

She's an Oxford PPE drone. Honestly what were people expecting?

One of the best heuristics is that anyone who has a PPE is a c*nt.

 

Never fails.

[ThoughtCriminal]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Distribution cycle.Its a huge part of this,big things sold down for smaller things.Big houses a complete liability unless you use them for renting out rooms or multi-generational living.Big cars the same.Likely in the budget Dishy will chuck more money at bennies making the problem worse.Too many comsuming not enough producing is the cause of the inflation,funded by governments monetising welfare budgets for over a decade.

Iv been using the last few years buying up tools,quality clothes etc 2nd hand.Investing is one thing,but being able to do as many jobs as you can yourself and cook well are going to be huge things for the cycle.We knew on here we would get pure inflation right at the de-complex end and thats exactly what we have.

Olive oil in Aldi,£1.89 December,then £1.99 Feb,£2.19 now.Iv a years supply at £1.89,a 15% return on my capital already.

I know we sort of jokingly talk about this but we really should ALL be buying up things that aren't perishable and we use regularly in as big of a quantity as we can afford and we have space to store it.

 

We know that EVERYTHING is going to be up massively in a year's time so filling your boots is an absolute no brainer.

 

I realise we all know it but, to paraphrase Orwell, the most obvious truths are always worth repeating.

 

So if anyone hasn't got 5 years worth of bog roll, I'll be taking names 

[belfastchild]

12 hours ago, Castlevania said:

We all have G3 Ferrari’s no?

Right. This is not a recommendation. However. This appeared in my ebay feed yesterday.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/274903916507

Looks like a G3 but isnt, cheap clone with less power and looks like it only goes to 230 degrees but...

[belfastchild]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

So if anyone hasn't got 5 years worth of bog roll, I'll be taking names 

bidet shower attachment (bum gun, muslim shataf type thing). Dont worry about bog roll (ok well some).
Down to 6 months supply of bog roll myself, need to get to the cash and carry this weekend.

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Right. This is not a recommendation. However. This appeared in my ebay feed yesterday.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/274903916507

Looks like a G3 but isnt, cheap clone with less power and looks like it only goes to 230 degrees but...

Uh oh, this is how it starts: one day its "this is JUST like the Ferrari oven" the next we're all buying 10k of dogecoin. 😂😉

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

In the spirit of DB losing the plot and buying a dogshit stock, does anyone own Alibaba? 

 

I can't help thinking it's looking immensely cheap now.

 

Or do I need to book my bed on the loony ward with DB?

I never said it was dog shit,i said it was likely to go to zero  i bought a very small stake £2k and count it as a pure gamble.A friend of mine who was in charge of introducing new products at GSK put me on to it.He used to work with us on how to manufacture new drugs,he worked with the scientists in R+D who left when GSK stopped researching antidepressants,a couple of those scientists have invested in the company and they put him on to it.

Its Atai Life Sciences ticker ATAI .

I repeat,this is a calculated gamble,nothing to do with the cycle,investing etc,a pure gamble where the £2k will go to zero most likely.Its not a ladder stock,or a sensible investment.Its not investment advice unless people want to lose all their capital as that is whats likely to happen.

Kaplan has been buying Chinese internet stock funds.

[belfastchild]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

Uh oh, this is how it starts: one day its "this is JUST like the Ferrari oven" the next we're all buying 10k of dogecoin. 😂😉

Might have been a better punt than 10k of poly/evraz ;-)
10k in heating oil, bog roll or olive oil would have made more money.

Confession time, in between starting that post and finishing it I bought one. I looked at how much a replacement stone and replacement elements would cost me for the G3 and it wouldnt be far off that total price, posted to NI. Dont worry, I'll make them fit ;-)

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I never said it was dog shit,i said it was likely to go to zero  i bought a very small stake £2k and count it as a pure gamble.A friend of mine who was in charge of introducing new products at GSK put me on to it.He used to work with us on how to manufacture new drugs,he worked with the scientists in R+D who left when GSK stopped researching antidepressants,a couple of those scientists have invested in the company and they put him on to it.

Its Atai Life Sciences ticker ATAI .

I repeat,this is a calculated gamble,nothing to do with the cycle,investing etc,a pure gamble where the £2k will go to zero most likely.Its not a ladder stock,or a sensible investment.Its not investment advice unless people want to lose all their capital as that is whats likely to happen.

Kaplan has been buying Chinese internet stock funds.

Hey you don't have to justify your crazy penny share antics to me DB, I'm sure it's all very sound!

 

*Get the chemical cosh ready lads, this bastards going off the deep end* 😂😉

[Pip321]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Distribution cycle.Its a huge part of this,big things sold down for smaller things.Big houses a complete liability unless you use them for renting out rooms or multi-generational living.Big cars the same.Likely in the budget Dishy will chuck more money at bennies making the problem worse.Too many comsuming not enough producing is the cause of the inflation,funded by governments monetising welfare budgets for over a decade.

Iv been using the last few years buying up tools,quality clothes etc 2nd hand.Investing is one thing,but being able to do as many jobs as you can yourself and cook well are going to be huge things for the cycle.We knew on here we would get pure inflation right at the de-complex end and thats exactly what we have.

Olive oil in Aldi,£1.89 December,then £1.99 Feb,£2.19 now.Iv a years supply at £1.89,a 15% return on my capital already.

Couldn’t agree more.

I was fortunate enough to be able to give up work at 50. A frugal 30 years and saving, some developing for 20 years and some good fortune.
Since leaving work I have refitted our bathroom, decorated the house, redone the kitchen, built a summer house, redone the driveways and lawns (I won’t go on) but these jobs have been a decade in the waiting. I genuinely have saved £15k a year doing projects on my home and some rentals…I am slower than a pro but my time is free and jobs keep me fit.

The second point re bigger houses.
In 1969 my parents moved from Newcastle with very little money and 5 kids to North Yorkshire.  My dad was asked ‘how big a house can you manage because big houses are cheap’. 

They bought a massive 6 double bed Victorian Semi (it’s lovely) in 1969 for £2200. Now worth £600k. 

At the same time smaller 3 bed semis (new builds at the time or typical 1950’s ones) were £3,000 and now worth £275k.

This wasn’t a clever investment decision rather it was because with 5 kids it seemed sensible….and in the even harsher 70’s the youngest 2 kids shared with a paying lodger in the spare. 

Not sure if the late 60’s directly correlates with you cycle timings but it seems interesting that these times were hard for many (in terms of cash wealth) so people avoided big old houses because of running and maintenance bills.

 

[feed]

27 minutes ago, marceau said:

They are going to create the largest black market in human history.

Those idiots couldn't implement universal credit.  No chance they get to CBDC's and state control ala china with social credit scores.  But they're too weak and intellectually lazy to understand.

They could of course break everything trying to get to it, and, as you say create the largest black market in history.  

[Errol]

 

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Might have been a better punt than 10k of poly/evraz ;-)
10k in heating oil, bog roll or olive oil would have made more money.

Confession time, in between starting that post and finishing it I bought one. I looked at how much a replacement stone and replacement elements would cost me for the G3 and it wouldnt be far off that total price, posted to NI. Dont worry, I'll make them fit ;-)

We want photos of this conversion and results ,iv had the G3 apart before to fix it,two wires touched and blew up,connectors are too small so replaced with bigger ones.

[belfastchild]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

We want photos of this conversion and results ,iv had the G3 apart before to fix it,two wires touched and blew up,connectors are too small so replaced with bigger ones.

Mine hasnt gone yet but is looking the worse for wear, mates top element went just before christmas and had difficulty finding a replacement.
Did look at doing some of the online mods, (double heat element on top, using aluminium reflector on top, internal deflector on top to stop the middle burning and the rotating stone like that cheap one), but bottled out as didnt want to break it - got it cheaply from ebay italy before brexit - was something like 60 quid.

[Democorruptcy]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I never said it was dog shit,i said it was likely to go to zero  i bought a very small stake £2k and count it as a pure gamble.A friend of mine who was in charge of introducing new products at GSK put me on to it.He used to work with us on how to manufacture new drugs,he worked with the scientists in R+D who left when GSK stopped researching antidepressants,a couple of those scientists have invested in the company and they put him on to it.

Its Atai Life Sciences ticker ATAI .

I repeat,this is a calculated gamble,nothing to do with the cycle,investing etc,a pure gamble where the £2k will go to zero most likely.Its not a ladder stock,or a sensible investment.Its not investment advice unless people want to lose all their capital as that is whats likely to happen.

Kaplan has been buying Chinese internet stock funds.

Just quoting this post for the macro Police before he tries to deletes it. The word 'gamble' is mentioned 3 times. Also this thread starter has previous, I think it was HL he recently bought one day and sold the next? You macro Police know who you are and what to do..... FRO.

[Craig]

46 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Right. This is not a recommendation. However. This appeared in my ebay feed yesterday.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/274903916507

Looks like a G3 but isnt, cheap clone with less power and looks like it only goes to 230 degrees but...

230 degrees isn't going to cut it, you'd be better using your domestic oven. 

[jamtomorrow]

Apologies if already posted, but Grant Williams has now released the recent Luke Gromen episode as a freebie:

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Can't be overstated that inflation is actually FAR worse than most think.

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

Thanks and Appreciated. Genuinely  

Not defending my actual discussion about trading and just had a look at the trading forum. It’s a true trading forum is about trading speculatively, ideas and useful thoughts.

This thread mentions laddering, top slicing and some movement of funds…so I am getting my red card out ready 😆 

Joking apart, my thoughts on my old Lloyds (in my example) are evolving a little different. More about ‘how’ to hold ‘investments’ in during these unprecedented times rather than necessarily whether to hold them. Understand in my original question that is a bit blurred but it was really what was driving my thoughts.

So you are right my query is about tactics and timings but kinda sits between trading and investing. Albeit more trading.

I have held these Lloyds untouched for a decade so not a renowned trader. I am questioning whether I start selling at certain points of news, events or even a little rally…knowing that uncertain times could significantly alter values. FOMO has always stopped that sale the that’s the question I am asking myself…is potentially losing 3% next week worth the risk of losing 50% over the next 3 weeks  

It applies to anyone holding large amounts even in any solid blue chip highlighted in this macro thread….ie not whether they should hold them (because we agree they should) but whether there should be more top slicing, laddering, chopping and changing at the moment.  

My big PruFund is completely untradeable and it’s completely useless at times like this with real uncertainty. I ask to withdraw or change funds and they will adjust the value with a penalty and make me wait a month…so it is really too late to react unless I believe a true BK is coming.

I take your point completely. I like to keep things fairly jovial (except serious politics and bad media coverage which genuinely annoys me) and accept the challenge and reminder.

…….and now reading back ‘I protest too much’ 😆

IMO you fecking write whatever you like!  No self appointed police force to decide where the line is between trading and investing thank you, if indeed there is one which I doubt.  Quite often a stock is just an exemplar of a bigger discussion point which some might miss.  Many reputable commentators have commented that we are now in a traders market (end of passive, etc) so it would be stupid to subjectively and arbitrarily exclude some discussions about how to address the current macro. And you've posted some good stuff.  But above all, I don't want to be part of a such a "censored" forum.  Plenty other ones out there to see that and how far it can go.  This forum has been working great for years.  It needs no self appointed improvers.  I'm not 100% innocent so understand the potential for mild frustration but once apologised for my mistake. Truth be told, I was having a bad day.  I love you all, faults and all, just like you tolerate mine! 

PS:  Plus, as a HSBC holder, I appreciate the schadenfreude of someone worse off than me!