Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

She's an Oxford PPE drone. Honestly what were people expecting?

Someone once said that the politicians who do PPE or any Uni course, do just the minimum to pass/get a 2:1, their real focus is on the political parties at Uni and afterwards.  So they don't really 'do' PPE, they 'study' local politics via the student bodies, then local councils, then NGOs or regional bodies, then national parties, etc.

That's a really good insight.  She's not actually a PPE drone (or else she'd be able to see the flaws in her own arguments).  She's a POLITICAL PARTY STUDENT.

[belfastchild]

20 minutes ago, Craig said:

230 degrees isn't going to cut it, you'd be better using your domestic oven. 

Shouldnt be that hard to mod/bypass.

Like when the G3 top element cuts out mid pizza when doing a series of pizzas. Just open the lid to get it to cool quicker and it comes back on again.

[marceau]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Someone once said that the politicians who do PPE or any Uni course, do just the minimum to pass/get a 2:1, their real focus is on the political parties at Uni and afterwards.  So they don't really 'do' PPE, they 'study' local politics via the student bodies, then local councils, then NGOs or regional bodies, then national parties, etc.

That's a really good insight.  She's not actually a PPE drone (or else she'd be able to see the flaws in her own arguments).  She's a POLITICAL PARTY STUDENT.

Yes, they are drones for the political power system. Their ambition and inability to critique make them the perfect vessels to carry forward the agenda of the various power elite groups.

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Someone once said that the politicians who do PPE or any Uni course, do just the minimum to pass/get a 2:1, their real focus is on the political parties at Uni and afterwards.  So they don't really 'do' PPE, they 'study' local politics via the student bodies, then local councils, then NGOs or regional bodies, then national parties, etc.

That's a really good insight.  She's not actually a PPE drone (or else she'd be able to see the flaws in her own arguments).  She's a POLITICAL PARTY STUDENT.

PPE, another good idea corrupted.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, marceau said:

Yes, they are drones for the political power system. Their amibition and inability to critique make them the perfect vessels to carry forward the agenda of the various power elite groups.

Imagine that you can become foreign secretary and not even be aware of the geography of the area you're discussing.

 

We used to have MPs that were working class grammar school boys who could speak fluent Greek and Aramaic.

 

Now we get people as foreign secretary that can't read a fucking map.

 

It's not really a surprise how we got here, ripe for economic Armageddon.

[marceau]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Imagine that you can become foreign secretary and not even be aware of the geography of the area you're discussing.

 

We used to have MPs that were working class grammar school boys who could speak fluent Greek and Aramaic.

 

Now we get people as foreign secretary that can't read a fucking map.

 

It's not really a surprise how we got here, ripe for economic Armageddon.

It is by design. The system selects for those that are good at playing the game. The power elite sets the rules of the game. Nothing better for those in real power than frontmen who are intelligent & affable, but unprincipled & unquestioning.

As Chomsky said to Marr in that interview 'I'm sure you believe what you are saying, but if you believed something different you wouldn't be here'.

[Juniper]

39 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Apologies if already posted, but Grant Williams has now released the recent Luke Gromen episode as a freebie:

 

I was just coming on to mention this. It’s a cracker of a podcast, even more so than his other recent ones IMO. 

His theory that the US also wants to break the dollar system so that they can re-shore manufacturing as a security measure fits in my mind alongside @DurhamBorn’s excellent explanation of raising rates to force repo money into the market. No point in releasing dollars if they disappear into another country’s FX reserves, they want companies to invest at home.

I still have a lot to figure out but it’s making more sense. He also points out how the war gives good cover for the plan because there would be uproar if they just broke the dollar system and made people poorer without an excuse.

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, Juniper said:

He also points out how the war gives good cover for the plan because there would be uproar if they just broke the dollar system and made people poorer without an excuse.

Shock doctrine.

There's a shelf with plans sat there awaiting the perfect marketing event.

[Plan-b]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Distribution cycle.Its a huge part of this,big things sold down for smaller things.Big houses a complete liability unless you use them for renting out rooms or multi-generational living.Big cars the same.Likely in the budget Dishy will chuck more money at bennies making the problem worse.Too many comsuming not enough producing is the cause of the inflation,funded by governments monetising welfare budgets for over a decade.

Iv been using the last few years buying up tools,quality clothes etc 2nd hand.Investing is one thing,but being able to do as many jobs as you can yourself and cook well are going to be huge things for the cycle.We knew on here we would get pure inflation right at the de-complex end and thats exactly what we have.

Olive oil in Aldi,£1.89 December,then £1.99 Feb,£2.19 now.Iv a years supply at £1.89,a 15% return on my capital already.

So true - all of it. I have always done and continue to do as much as possible I'm the original tight arse and never get anyone in unless I absolutely have to. My comment about Mansion cost of gas and electric was not an off the cuff comment it comes from direct experience. In a previous life I lived in such a place 2 industrial gas boilers for heating, a further gas boiler for hot water and still another gas boiler for the pool. Then an upgraded 3 phase 125A  electrical supply split out at the mains board. In one month 25 years ago the gas bill alone was approx £1200.00. Can't imagine how these large places can survive going forward constant repairs and tradesman and up keep, vehicles, grounds. Millions.

 

[Juniper]

While I have some time to post, a quick update from work. Chinese supply chains seem to be getting worse again, there was some small relief at the back end of last year but now it feels as bad as it ever has been. Electrical components in particular are hard to find and more expensive. I heard this week of one semiconductor device that we used to buy for under £10 now costing over £300. We’re not going to absorb that - more price rises incoming.

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, Juniper said:

While I have some time to post, a quick update from work. Chinese supply chains seem to be getting worse again, there was some small relief at the back end of last year but now it feels as bad as it ever has been. Electrical components in particular are hard to find and more expensive. I heard this week of one semiconductor device that we used to buy for under £10 now costing over £300. We’re not going to absorb that - more price rises incoming.

I went to stock up on machine service parts.  Most delivery times on Amazon was for next month - i.e.  all direct from China.  Not good.  Cuba anyone?

[Lightscribe]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/warren-targets-oil-companies-with-plan-to-tax-windfall-profits
 

This is why I’m entirely in miners, metals and cash currently. I really don’t trust that the western governments (Led by democrats in the US) will do this.

You will pay for the bennie brigade out of your dividends and be happy.

[leonardratso]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

I went to stock up on machine service parts.  Most delivery times on Amazon was for next month - i.e.  all direct from China.  Not good.  Cuba anyone?

Probably not chinese, but...

I was looking for zeroveen mosturiser, only thing that seems to work for kidders eczema flare ups, short supply, ships in 1 to 2 months on amazon, very expensive, on back order for prescriptions etc, anyway ive bought a ton of it from various localish outlets on ebay, but they go soldout quick, some has arrived its the correct stuff, so its a bulk buying bonanza for me.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

IMO you fecking write whatever you like!  No self appointed police force to decide where the line is between trading and investing thank you, if indeed there is one which I doubt.  Quite often a stock is just an exemplar of a bigger discussion point which some might miss.  Many reputable commentators have commented that we are now in a traders market (end of passive, etc) so it would be stupid to subjectively and arbitrarily exclude some discussions about how to address the current macro. And you've posted some good stuff.  But above all, I don't want to be part of a such a "censored" forum.  Plenty other ones out there to see that and how far it can go.  This forum has been working great for years.  It needs no self appointed improvers.  I'm not 100% innocent so understand the potential for mild frustration but once apologised for my mistake. Truth be told, I was having a bad day.  I love you all, faults and all, just like you tolerate mine! 

PS:  Plus, as a HSBC holder, I appreciate the schadenfreude of someone worse off than me!  

Agree, I like the way the narrative evolves on this thread, and what some/I might feel is not relevant [or I haven't considered] can often extend my foundation knowledge/thinking i.e our 'in-house' geologists/physicists, and so promote potential cross-pollination of ideas/thought processes....If I don't want to read something I just skip past :-)

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Someone once said that the politicians who do PPE or any Uni course, do just the minimum to pass/get a 2:1, their real focus is on the political parties at Uni and afterwards.  So they don't really 'do' PPE, they 'study' local politics via the student bodies, then local councils, then NGOs or regional bodies, then national parties, etc.

That's a really good insight.  She's not actually a PPE drone (or else she'd be able to see the flaws in her own arguments).  She's a POLITICAL PARTY STUDENT.

Hence why I feel that it should be a prerequisite for anyone to have held a 'real' job before being able to go into politics; I also include in that any position where you are representing public opinion i.e. local council, magistrate etc, and not some 'pseudo' career such as working for a lobbying company before then getting your seat in Westminster.

[MrXxxx]

30 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Probably not chinese, but...

I was looking for zeroveen mosturiser, only thing that seems to work for kidders eczema flare ups, short supply, ships in 1 to 2 months on amazon, very expensive, on back order for prescriptions etc, anyway ive bought a ton of it from various localish outlets on ebay, but they go soldout quick, some has arrived its the correct stuff, so its a bulk buying bonanza for me.

Great as a short term measure, but try to find the cause of the eczema; it can often be diet related i.e. dairy.

[marceau]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

It is by design. The system selects for those that are good at playing the game. The power elite sets the rules of the game. Nothing better for those in real power than frontmen who are intelligent & affable, but unprincipled & unquestioning.

As Chomsky said to Marr in that interview 'I'm sure you believe what you are saying, but if you believed something different you wouldn't be here'.

Going to sin and quote myself. Link to the interview in question here.

The quote is from part 1, but I've linked part 2 because Marr goes into examples of where an 'honest, crusading' press has expressed 'serious dissent' on the US issues of the day and presumably headed-off something terrible. What examples does he bring up? The neocons, the ability of the Clinton admin to act, and NAFTA. This interview is from 1996...... oh boy.

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Apologies if already posted, but Grant Williams has now released the recent Luke Gromen episode as a freebie:

 

 

1 hour ago, Juniper said:

I was just coming on to mention this. It’s a cracker of a podcast, even more so than his other recent ones IMO. 

His theory that the US also wants to break the dollar system so that they can re-shore manufacturing as a security measure fits in my mind alongside @DurhamBorn’s excellent explanation of raising rates to force repo money into the market. No point in releasing dollars if they disappear into another country’s FX reserves, they want companies to invest at home.

I still have a lot to figure out but it’s making more sense. He also points out how the war gives good cover for the plan because there would be uproar if they just broke the dollar system and made people poorer without an excuse.

Agree it’s really insightful and personally helpful. In no way condone Putin…a terrible act has been committed and I can’t agree with his actions  

However at least the Podcast gives me some understanding of the US rational for continuing to provoke issues whenever they can. (ie it’s not just madness rather it’s just evil politics). In a black way it makes me feel slightly better knowing that they understand what they are doing.

In terms of this thread it’s feeling more and more that my 3/4 larger investments in shares will be at least 50% commodity businesses. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Greetings everybody from the SUNNY cotswolds!

 

Haven't been here all week, reason being it's warming up AND I've got more important stuff to do...er like... skip rubbish bins to check out!

 

Anyways...popped over to Tesco last night as it had been raining, (so took up @DurhamBorn's RAIN-TIP) did OK with the BEST purchase being my HALF-PRICE beer!

 

I haven't bought full price beer since the start of the year, lovely jubbly

 

 

MUST say the beer's worth MORE than my dodgy ruskie stocks that i speculated on the other week...😂

 

It's gonna be a LOVELY warm spring, PERFECT weather for bin scavenging!!!

 

P.S - IF the macro Police are reading this post... BUGGER OFF!

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can't be overstated that inflation is actually FAR worse than most think.

 

 

That 60/40 portfolio is the big one for ordinary pension investors with an IFA,down 9%,+1.5% fees as well.If in drawdown -15.5% over a year.It only takes a couple of years like that,then a flatline for a few years for a pension to half,and thats during rampant inflation on top.I didnt see one person in the mainstream question passive investing.Due to a long cycle it was just taken for granted that passive would get you 5% to 6% after fees forever.One guy i worked with who retired a year ago had almost everything in a 60/40 and Fundsmith equity with an IFA,said he would drawdown 5% a year and it would increase 2% a year,so with fees needs 8.5%pa.

The problem for passive really is that due to a huge dis--inflation cycle,inflation assets are tiny compared to the indexes,so by default a 60/40 hardly owns any,worse the likes of NEST even dumped the few they had.

The problem for us though is the cries for more and more government help will increase and with a huge structural deficit thats a massive problem.

[Shamone]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Greetings everybody from the SUNNY cotswolds!

 

Haven't been here all week, reason being it's warming up AND I've got more important stuff to do...er like... skip rubbish bins to check out!

 

Anyways...popped over to Tesco last night as it had been raining, (so took up @DurhamBorn's RAIN-TIP) did OK with the BEST purchase being my HALF-PRICE beer!

 

I haven't bought full price beer since the start of the year, lovely jubbly

 

 

MUST say the beer's worth MORE than my dodgy ruskie stocks that i speculated on the other week...😂

 

It's gonna be a LOVELY warm spring, PERFECT weather for bin scavenging!!!

 

P.S - IF the macro Police are reading this post... BUGGER OFF!

 

The Cotswolds are great. Did some work in a wheat field outside the Beckhams house last year.

[M S E Refugee]

Void left by ban on key metal from Russia can't be filled https://www.rt.com/business/551629-russia-sanctions-metal-ban/

[Bobthebuilder]

15 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

It's gonna be a LOVELY warm spring

I took some seeds out of a tomato from Lidl, dried them on tissue paper for a week then planted them.

Almost free tomatoes......

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Shouldnt be that hard to mod/bypass.

Like when the G3 top element cuts out mid pizza when doing a series of pizzas. Just open the lid to get it to cool quicker and it comes back on again.

When i put the 2nd pizza in etc i leave lid open for 20 seconds so just the base cooking then close,i find that way i can cook 5 before the top element goes out,however it means slightly lower temp but not enough to affect things.

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I took some seeds out of a tomato from Lidl, dried them on tissue paper for a week then planted them.

Almost free tomatoes......

What tomatoes were they? I was thinking of  doing this this year (knew about the tissue dry off bit to remove the membrane) but thought I’d choose an English variety for the most chance of success.