Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Chewing Grass]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

I wonder what's up.  Had a call from a major builders merchants asking if I needed help with bids, etc.  Haven't used them for a while so maybe just checking I'm alive or going to close the account.  Or.......?  Any views on the construction market atm?  My neighbour was quite negative about 2022 in December.

PS:  To add I got a super quick delivery from another merchants.  Not at all normal.

Have started to notice a lot of stalled developments, not the big boys but the smaller speculative ones.

There is even one sat almost finished with house and street numbers on those glass plates which have virtually weathered off, about 20 first time buyer homes and like a ghost estate.

[Harley]

Pig in muck is me!  The solar panels came on a very large pallet.  Bloke asks if I want it.  Silly boy!  Now converted into a log store cradle with some spare 2x2 and a few screws.  Meanwhile, the log splitter has been pimped with four all terrain tyres I had lying around so is now transportable.  What shall I name them?  Everything in the yard has a name.  I quite like "YRS Pride"! 

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Youl enjoy this one.I went to plant a clematis last week but hit concrete.I could of moved along,or got the hammer drill out,but i decided to do it the old way,big hammer and concrete chisel.Took me over an hour,but i really enjoyed that,focus on a problem then chip away at it.

 

That'll be a couple of Ibuprofen for me!  Defo one for me Aldi breaker.  Normally used for gardening where I live!

[Eventually Right]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

 

I have no idea on the quality of the above, but they seem to be the ones that are mentioned by the "coal guys" I follow on twitter!  

@Edark94

 

@respeculator

@BambroughKevin

@agnostoxxx

@YellowLabLife

@contrarian8888

@TraderPamplona

All worth following for ideas on coal (and other commodities) imho

 

 

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

This is all you need:

Joking aside, I really like those fibreglass handle pickaxes.

Disclosure:  I own! 

[Pip321]

I am on one of my walks so missed the opportunity to reply to DB’s coal question. Yep, it was predictably to buy physical…stocks are for softies. 

In terms of petrol prices, BG and Shell,  no need to worry the US have our backs covered. Hey, and it’s ‘easily’ covered. 

Now I had tomorrow afternoon for this announcement in the sweepstake for ‘the big US oil rescue’. Who had today ie predictability factor 100%. 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Just noticed that the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down over 1,000 points this morning at 19,500. Down over 10,000 from a year ago. Just how bad is the Chinese economy? 

The ruling families have been fighting within China for 20 years.  The ones who don't have heavy control/assets in HK have won, hence they are destroying Hong Kong economically and financially.  Look at the policies of Lam this month.  Insanity.  The Hang Seng is in freefall as people try to get money out.  expats fleeing.  Property will go into freefall next, if it hasn't already.

 

The idea of the 'winners' is that the trade and money moves to Shanghai and other chinese cities.  I think they underestimated how much trade depends on trust.  Most will, I suspect, move to Singapore.

 

[TNS]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Reality is biting.

"Ok we'll let you turn on the taps now for a bit" 

"No taps to open, sorry."

"Next week?"

"..."

"Next month?? Next year???"

"... ..."

"Bollocks. Get out the chequebook Rishi, we need to buy off the public before they string us up".

 

Carrie sex ban unless he uturns back to green.

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, TNS said:

Carrie sex ban unless he uturns back to green.

Can we not sort this problem out by supplying him with half a dozen hot Ukranian hookers instead.

[Plan-b]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Reality is biting.

"Ok we'll let you turn on the taps now for a bit" 

"No taps to open, sorry."

"Next week?"

"..."

"Next month?? Next year???"

"... ..."

"Bollocks. Get out the chequebook Rishi, we need to buy off the public before they string us up".

 

Way too late!

Disclosure: I'm long lamp posts and rope.

[Bricormortis]

If the Ukraine conflict does not resolve then expect petrol rationing. TPTB are discussing.

That will become seriously permanent likely as not, you will need to make a special application if you want extra I would imagine. 

[Calcutta]

My look at coal told me the largest untapped reserves are under Wyoming, the biggest mine in Wyoming is owned by BTU Peabody, so that's my play on coal. 

Right now it's about 23, goes right down to 5/10 when the price is low tho. So I intend waiting a couple of years for the next commodities crash and then throwing a suitcase full of cash at them. 

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

My look at coal told me the largest untapped reserves are under Wyoming, the biggest mine in Wyoming is owned by BTU Peabody, so that's my play on coal. 

Right now it's about 23, goes right down to 5/10 when the price is low tho. So I intend waiting a couple of years for the next commodities crash and then throwing a suitcase full of cash at them. 

Peabody is very volatile, gutted I only have it in my SIPP when I gambled with 'free' money.  Will wait for pullback before putting in ISA.

Have Arch and Thungela too, not clever enough to give any advice on choosing coalies, it was a spray and pray that paid

[Noallegiance]

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

 

[marceau]

59 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

"Bollocks. Get out the chequebook Rishi, we need to buy off the public before they string us up".

We've heard of the wage-price spiral. Now we get to see the bennies-price spiral.

[Libspero]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

In terms of petrol prices, BG and Shell,  no need to worry the US have our backs covered. Hey, and it’s ‘easily’ covered. 

Now I had tomorrow afternoon for this announcement in the sweepstake for ‘the big US oil rescue’. Who had today ie predictability factor 100%. 

The US can crank up the fracking..   I think the challenge is more a question of logistics.  It's a lot of LNG ships required on short notice.  

[geordie_lurch]

Back under $100

 

[BurntBread]

28 minutes ago, Loki said:

Peabody is very volatile, gutted I only have it in my SIPP when I gambled with 'free' money.  Will wait for pullback before putting in ISA.

Have Arch and Thungela too, not clever enough to give any advice on choosing coalies, it was a spray and pray that paid

Peabody had been through chapter 11 before COVID, and looked like it was circling the drain again in 2020 when I put in a small amount as a gamble. Even as energy prices started to climb, it was struggling with profitability, although with the extremes we have had recently, it's obviously come good. Still, I think (I need to check!) it's still got a precarious balance sheet, and some legal issues.

BTU was planned to be one of the (few) shares I would dump before the BK, in case debt refinancing tipped it over the edge again. So I ditched it last month (sa "4-bagger", I think the term is - although I only had a little bit in there).

My guess is a lot of these companies, being old, suffering from regulatory and political pressure, and perhaps with labour / legacy issues, are going to need a @sancho panza coma-score approach to reduce risk from nasty surprises.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Peabody had been through chapter 11 before COVID, and looked like it was circling the drain again in 2020 when I put in a small amount as a gamble. Even as energy prices started to climb, it was struggling with profitability, although with the extremes we have had recently, it's obviously come good. Still, I think (I need to check!) it's still got a precarious balance sheet, and some legal issues.

BTU was planned to be one of the (few) shares I would dump before the BK, in case debt refinancing tipped it over the edge again. So I ditched it last month (sa "4-bagger", I think the term is - although I only had a little bit in there).

My guess is a lot of these companies, being old, suffering from regulatory and political pressure, and perhaps with labour / legacy issues, are going to need a @sancho panza coma-score approach to reduce risk from nasty surprises.

Very good info and I agree 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Reality is biting.

"Ok we'll let you turn on the taps now for a bit" 

"No taps to open, sorry."

"Next week?"

"..."

"Next month?? Next year???"

"... ..."

"Bollocks. Get out the chequebook Rishi, we need to buy off the public before they string us up".

 

Cuadrilla should rename their wells "Slava Ukraini" and "F**k Putin", then see how quick that instruction to stop pouring the concrete comes.

[Boglet]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

If the Ukraine conflict does not resolve then expect petrol rationing. TPTB are discussing.

That will become seriously permanent likely as not, you will need to make a special application if you want extra I would imagine. 

Nice. As someone who walks to work and enjoys cars as a petrolhead, this would get a huge amount of cars off the road and allow me to use my 'ration' at the weekend in an enjoyable way.

Until my job disappears.

[Libspero]

42 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

This cranking up business is very hard to do

Thanks for the background..   I think I presumed a lot of the fracking infrastructure was already in place,  it had just been uneconomical to use it because of cheap Russian gas flooding the markets.

Was the old infrastructure destroyed,  or was there simply never enough there in the first place to support the volumes now required ?

[DurhamBorn]

They will forget fracking and will instead go for the massive gas reserves off Bridlington,il have to stop going once it goes over £2.60 a pint in The New Inn.

[janch]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

If the Ukraine conflict does not resolve then expect petrol rationing. TPTB are discussing.

That will become seriously permanent likely as not, you will need to make a special application if you want extra I would imagine. 

I predicted this on here last week!  Also speed limits on motorways and how about a 3-day working week?

These were he tactics used in the 70s oil crisis and we seem to be heading for the same but on steroids.

[DurhamBorn]

China etc will now burn loads more coal  much cheaper than the west can produce energy.Their decades of work and plants in unis,media etc have done their work of making the west chase the ESG fraud.Our polos are in shock mode and will try to simply borrow more and more,but the FED has stopped QE now and the BOE wont be able to monetise.The people didnt vote for it,they voted for Conservative governments,but they got spivs.This reflation is just getting going,oil will likely whipsaw people out of the oilies,then take another leg up.