Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Plan-b]

7 minutes ago, janch said:

I predicted this on here last week!  Also speed limits on motorways and how about a 3-day working week?

These were he tactics used in the 70s oil crisis and we seem to be heading for the same but on steroids.

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

If the Ukraine conflict does not resolve then expect petrol rationing. TPTB are discussing.

That will become seriously permanent likely as not, you will need to make a special application if you want extra I would imagine. 

@Bricormortis I've done a search and can't see where this is being discussed, any links or info would be helpful - Thanks  

[Pip321]

Rio down a chunk today and with its cheeky 10% dividend it certainly ticks all the boxes for my first long term hold.

Appreciate its gone ex div and its made a bid today but that helps drive a more attractive price because long term this one feels very solid. I imagine its one that many on here are already filled up on at much cheaper prices.

To be fair though I am still very cautious because it still feels (probably wrongly) bad news could cost 20% across the board but good news means I lose out on 5%, which I could live with.....volatility is my friend and my foe and makes it hard to click the buy button. 

 

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So apparently the Fed ended QE programme last Wednesday, and bond yields have taken off like a scalded cat. I guess with the Fed out of the market, no one else wants them? At these yields anyway, lets see where price discovery ends up. David H says 2.5% on the 10Y.

Problem is, that this is likley to break something. I don't know what. It'll break the US government balance sheet if it keeps up.

It will force the repo money out,just like the Fed wants ,curve should indicate no recession,but inflationary growth.This will force all rates higher locking in the reflation.Velocity should start to increase now.

[HousePriceMania]

50 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So apparently the Fed ended QE programme last Wednesday, and bond yields have taken off like a scalded cat. I guess with the Fed out of the market, no one else wants them? At these yields anyway, lets see where price discovery ends up. David H says 2.5% on the 10Y.

Problem is, that this is likley to break something. I don't know what. It'll break the US government balance sheet if it keeps up.

here's the 2year

[Sasquatch]

I'm meeting up with a client tomorrow to discuss their new build project. A smallish building but lots of intricate details and expensive things like natural stone cladding, oak doors, zinc roofing etc.

Budget originally prepared for a start on site early 2021. I fear the messenger will be shot tomorrow when I tell them that their building will probably cost them 20% more after a year of dithering.

[BadAlchemy]

55 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So apparently the Fed ended QE programme last Wednesday, and bond yields have taken off like a scalded cat. I guess with the Fed out of the market, no one else wants them? At these yields anyway, lets see where price discovery ends up. David H says 2.5% on the 10Y.

Problem is, that this is likley to break something. I don't know what. It'll break the US government balance sheet if it keeps up.

The Russell Napier video posted several pages back was pertinent to this, I thought. Didn't fully understand it all but he was suggesting governments will be doing 'cap day' ( his term ) and legislating that finance institutions must start to buy/hold a higher level of bonds. To put a brake on the rates if they get out of hand. Institutions would likely finance this by selling equities, so downward pressure on stock market indices. He suggested there would be a sequence, weakest to strongest, depending on debt to GDP ratios... likely China first, then Europe, US last. I am probably talking crap and should go listen to it again. All I know is, it feels like we are not going to have a smooth journey from here. I will probably top up IBTL and cash reserves as we get closer to the 2.5% figure being touted by some.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Sasquatch said:

I'm meeting up with a client tomorrow to discuss their new build project. A smallish building but lots of intricate details and expensive things like natural stone cladding, oak doors, zinc roofing etc.

Budget originally prepared for a start on site early 2021. I fear the messenger will be shot tomorrow when I tell them that their building will probably cost them 20% more after a year of dithering.

Surely thanks to Pishi Sunake their new build has already increased 20% in value and they've not even built it yet ?

They can't lose.

 

[Errol]

 

[Sasquatch]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Surely thanks to Pishi Sunake their new build has already increased 20% in value and they've not even built it yet ?

They can't lose.

 

Commercial building, owner occupier. Will not be a big earner for them. Pay back in £ terms is multiple decades I should imagine. It would perform a very useful community service but certainly not a profitable enterprise. 

[Axeman123]

37 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

...lots of intricate details and expensive things like natural stone cladding, oak doors, zinc roofing etc...

20 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Commercial building, owner occupier. Will not be a big earner for them. Pay back in £ terms is multiple decades I should imagine. It would perform a very useful community service but certainly not a profitable enterprise. 

Those two seem an odd mix. Religious premises maybe?

[M S E Refugee]

https://rumble.com/vx7ti1-david-murrin.html

Not a bad listen, quite interesting in parts.

[M S E Refugee]

After trying to warn people about the Pandemic has anyone else here given up trying to help people to protect themselves against inflation?

I don't bother, I'm past caring,it's probably best not to interfere and let Darwinism play out.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

After trying to warn people about the Pandemic has anyone else here given up trying to help people to protect themselves against inflation?

I don't bother, I'm past caring,it's probably best not to interfere and let Darwinism play out.

Won't go into details but yes, spent ages describing the whats and whys and it was all ignored

[kibuc]

Investing in junior miners is easy an fun.

[jamanda]

I keep daughter informed and mouth shut everywhere else.

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

After trying to warn people about the Pandemic has anyone else here given up trying to help people to protect themselves against inflation?

I don't bother, I'm past caring,it's probably best not to interfere and let Darwinism play out.

Have tried to warn my sister.

My wife is an inflation expert at her work. People have started asking her why prices are rising so much.

[HousePriceMania]

A fair point
 

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

24 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

After trying to warn people about the Pandemic has anyone else here given up trying to help people to protect themselves against inflation?

I don't bother, I'm past caring,it's probably best not to interfere and let Darwinism play out.

It's like a re run from 2007/08 when I stocked up and was laughed at by anyone who found out. It was only when Darling did an interview afterwards and admitted they ended up being only hours away from pulling the plug on the entire banking system.

No bank branches open, no cash machines working, no cheques being cashed, no debit cards & no credit cards working. Then I was viewed as slightly less than a lunatic. But only just 

[geordie_lurch]

27 minutes ago, Loki said:

Won't go into details but yes, spent ages describing the whats and whys and it was all ignored

I had a friend pretty much lose it with me the other week when I suggested getting anything he needed or wanted in sooner rather than later would be a good idea just before petrol started shooting up. I'm pretty sure his stress with me is correlated to what I think his buyers remorse over the jabs which I also warned him about though but I have up on talking about those to 99% of people months ago 

[M S E Refugee]

12 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I had a friend pretty much lose it with me the other week when I suggested getting anything he needed or wanted in sooner rather than later would be a good idea just before petrol started shooting up. I'm pretty sure his stress with me is correlated to what I think his buyers remorse over the jabs which I also warned him about though but I have up on talking about those to 99% of people months ago 

The more things you correctly predict the less likely they are to believe you.

Humans are fucking weird!

[Errol]

 

[Hunty]

42 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

After trying to warn people about the Pandemic has anyone else here given up trying to help people to protect themselves against inflation?

I don't bother, I'm past caring,it's probably best not to interfere and let Darwinism play out.

I'll be honest with you kidda. I love reading this thread, some very eloquent posters make some great points on macro and energy without naming names. I know it was started as a way to protect one self against the now present inflation threat.

For me inflation is the least of my worry for myself and my kids. My worry is freedom of thought and freedom of one's financial investments. It seems the net is getting tighter and tighter as each day passes. What's happened to Russian securities has enlightened me about the security of ownership in the banana republic of Johnson land.

Me I've taken the biggest punt you'll ever imagine as a contrariant investor come gambler.

If I had not taken the once in a lifetime risk and it had paid off and I had not taken it. I could not have lived with that. If it does not pay off it was worth the risk because I'll live with the fact that this opportunity will never arise again and I lost.

I'll still have my kid's, my health is unaffected as it's in my nature and the communist state can chip in to house and feed me. Sitting here with a pretty portfolio in the current environment does not fill me with any confidence as our so called leader's make the rule's up to hold this current cluster fuck of a financial system together.

Good luck and good night. H

[ThoughtCriminal]

A picture worth a thousand words............

[JimmyTheBruce]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

Peabody is very volatile, gutted I only have it in my SIPP when I gambled with 'free' money.  Will wait for pullback before putting in ISA.

Have Arch and Thungela too, not clever enough to give any advice on choosing coalies, it was a spray and pray that paid

I see TECK and HCC haven't been mentioned with regards to coal.  I've got a bit of them along with Peabody and Thungela.

Haven't invested much, but combined they're up 180% so, as others have mentioned, I'm kicking myself for not putting more in.

[Loki]

Just now, JimmyTheBruce said:

I see TECK and HCC haven't been mentioned with regards to coal.  I've got a bit of them along with Peabody and Thungela.

Haven't invested much, but combined they're up 180% so, as others have mentioned, I'm kicking myself for not putting more in.

Thanks for that, it wasn't a well-researched move so it's good to have some more names to check out