Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JimmyTheBruce]

5 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Polymetal: Important notice regarding FTSE exclusion

Mon, 14th Mar 2022 14:30

Polymetal International plc (POLY) Polymetal: Important notice regarding FTSE exclusion 14-March-2022 / 17:30 MSK Dissemination of a Regulatory Announcement, transmitted by EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

IMMEDIATE LSE, MOEX, AIX: POLY / ADR: AUCOY

Polymetal International plc

Important notice regarding FTSE exclusion

The recent exclusion of Polymetal shares from the series of FTSE equity indices does not impact the Сompany's listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). Trading of POLY shares on LSE and Astana International Exchange (AIX) continues. 

Polymetal will continue to trade but with less liquidity. Shares will be harder to buy which means if you can have the balls to hold them for longer than an hour, any good news could rocket the SP. Alternatvely less liquidity means the shares are harder to sell if the market drops all of the sudden, oooops. It's a gamble trade, not an investment to be fare.

 

Had to laugh when I checked my PM Miners today.  I have about 25 (spray and pray).  The only one showing green...... POLY.  

[sancho panza]

 

Dowd predicts Q3 recession,having seen inflation is asset prices over last decade and deflation in things we consume,that's about to swap around.

Also,pointing out that the millenial generation appears to have suffered a Vietnam war in terms of excess deaths from vaccine according to CDC data.

 

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/03/no_author/edward-dowd-on-future-recession-shocking-findings-in-the-cdc-covid-data-and-democide/

Dowd does not see the liability protections afforded by the US Government to vaccine manufacturers protecting them, this time.

He says, “I’ve done a lot of work into the clinical data with [Ventavia whistleblower] Brook Jackson on the prima facie evidence that the FDA wanted to hide the data for 75 years, which points to clinical fraud.”

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

 

Dowd predicts Q3 recession,having seen inflation is asset prices over last decade and deflation in things we consume,that's about to swap around.

Also,pointing out that the millenial generation appears to have suffered a Vietnam war in terms of excess deaths from vaccine according to CDC data.

 

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/03/no_author/edward-dowd-on-future-recession-shocking-findings-in-the-cdc-covid-data-and-democide/

I think we are at the tipping point now, will actually be in recession by start of Q2 whilst the statistics take time to recognise the fact.

Roads were dead by 6pm tonight.

[Majorpain]

 

Gordon Brown: We should have jailed the bankers

Better 10 years late (and only listened to by his wife) than never I suppose? 

[Bricks & Mortar]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

I wonder what's up.  Had a call from a major builders merchants asking if I needed help with bids, etc.  Haven't used them for a while so maybe just checking I'm alive or going to close the account.  Or.......?  Any views on the construction market atm?  My neighbour was quite negative about 2022 in December.

PS:  To add I got a super quick delivery from another merchants.  Not at all normal.

I got one of those last week, also from a major merchant - (my local branch of MKM)

I (small builder), notice less enquiries from the domestic improvement side.  Repairs, of course, going along as normal.

Also last week, ordered polycarb corrugated roofing sheets - got them very next day.

[M S E Refugee]

17 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

 

Gordon Brown: We should have jailed the bankers

Better 10 years late (and only listened to by his wife) than never I suppose? 

And not sold all that Gold.

[Harley]

12 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I got one of those last week, also from a major merchant - (my local branch of MKM)

I (small builder), notice less enquiries from the domestic improvement side.  Repairs, of course, going along as normal.

Also last week, ordered polycarb corrugated roofing sheets - got them very next day.

Funny thing was I got a buy signal on a material manufacturer today so laddered in.  May regret that, especially as they may lack the gas they need!  

[invalid]

56 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think we are at the tipping point now, will actually be in recession by start of Q2 whilst the statistics take time to recognise the fact.

Roads were dead by 6pm tonight.

 

Seems inevitable now doesn't it?

Even if tomorrow we wake up and everything is good in the world there is a bulge of increased costs coming down the pipeline.

All this talk of who will make up the shortfall from Russia and talk of its ok we can get it from elsewhere - yes, I'm sure we can but it will cost twice as much.

Covid, or rather the reaction to it messed us up bad. We are just starting to feel the delayed pain from that.

Russia invading Ukraine, or rather the reaction to it has messed us up even more. The pain for that is only just beginning.

 

 

[Majorpain]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

Funny thing was I got a buy signal on a material manufacturer today so laddered in.  May regret that, especially as they may lack the gas they need!  

Quiet start to the year for us, if your getting fast deliveries off builders merchants its a good signal that its a sector wide slowdown.  It doesn't affect big contractors as much, but if prices go crazy the smaller jobs are quite likely to get put on hold or pulled.

We have a lot of work booked throughout this year which is rare, contractors are trying to lock prices in early in case more raw material hikes come in.

[MrXxxx]

Thought this might be useful for some, it compares two ETFs and reports the overlaps:

https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php

Bear in mind I think it is US based so you need to use the US ticker i.e I tried GDGB vs GJGB and got nothing but GDX vs GDXJ worked; I previously did this the long way in excel before and this makes the job a lot easier...have fun!

[snaga]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

 

Gordon Brown: We should have jailed the bankers

Better 10 years late (and only listened to by his wife) than never I suppose? 

Is this a confession? It's not for politicians to decide who is jailed, or not. We know the judicial system is corrupt  but for a politician to say this is wrong.

[Castlevania]

What a complete bellend. The bankers simply took advantage of the policies he put in place. He encouraged it, the thick twat. If anyone should be in prison it’s him. I really do wish he’d just fuck off.

[leonardratso]

beats me who would travel to talk to that cunt. I wouldnt even talk to the twat if he rang my doorbell.

[wherebee]

Just now, leonardratso said:

beats me who would travel to talk to that cunt. I wouldnt even talk to the twat if he rang my doorbell.

I would.

I have a fair bit of rope in the garage, cable ties, and a spare car battery.  We could play 'name that tune'

[Pip321]

Okay…like others on here on certain posts in the past I may have been out for a cheeky pint or five. Politics and finance not discussed but Brigg and Stratton Lawnmowers and the interior of a friends new (well new to him) Alfa….it was really nice and I ain’t a car guy  

I have mapped out the path whilst watching the news….apparently this war is bad. Who would have known war could be bad and hurt people when seemed so much fun and victimless in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

Prediction (but my senses are somewhat diminished) : 
1) China gets drawn in by US asap.  Vital because when ‘we’ decide on the new reserve currency we need to ensure Yuan is not an option. Commies and all that. 

2) link a currency (likely the rubel) to gold or oil. Sanctions then allow a Cold War rather than a real war to create blame culture for both side.
Hopefully fighting stops. 

3) dollars fall. The $100 trillion deficit is deemed unsustainable for any reserve currency. This timeframe is very flexible.  

4) balance restored with new ‘neutral’ reserve currency. Details tbc but possible considerations are Yuan, Swiss franc, whatever Indian uses or even the £. 

5) living standards fall in countries that consume more than they produce ie US, UK etc….but blame culture avoids civil war. Last thing ‘we’ want is the wealthy hanging from the lampposts again  

6) manufacturing shifts from east back to west. 

7) 30/40 years time east get complacent….to restart the cycle 

8) west regains increasing manufacturing ‘power’ and tries to regain control. 

Never mind…at least the public outcry is better managed than in the past without too much rioting or executions.  

Dosbods hopefully keep their heads above water following this brilliant, well humoured and informative thread.

Every 60/70 years for 500 years…lather rinse repeat.

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

A picture worth a thousand words............

I did say natural gas would be the best performing asset this cycle with silver,shame i couldnt of leveraged it better,but not easy.Government deserves all the shit its going to get.More bennies will just see more and more jack in.It also does nothing for single people or couples without children as most of the bennie claims end up once the kids are 18.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

And not sold all that Gold.

....to the bankers.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

 

Gordon Brown: We should have jailed the bankers

Better 10 years late (and only listened to by his wife) than never I suppose? 

I nailed a girl from Aberdour (thats where the cafe is Brown goes to),she lived in a 5 cottage village called Abercrombie just along the coast,amazing the places i got to back then ,You have to laugh at Brown,he encouraged the bankers to pay for his tax credits.

[HousePriceMania]

44 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What a complete bellend. The bankers simply took advantage of the policies he put in place. He encouraged it, the thick twat. If anyone should be in prison it’s him. I really do wish he’d just fuck off.

I think it's worse than that.  IIRC Blair and Broon went to London toon before they came to power to get support.  Who knows what they promised them.

However, their first act was to hand the BoE our lives on a plate via the 1998 banking act.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_Policy_Committee_(United_Kingdom)

"Announced on 6 May 1997, only five days after that year's General Election, and officially given operational responsibility for setting interest rates in the Bank of England Act 1998, the committee was designed to be independent of political interference and thus to add credibility to interest rate decisions."

 

This is all coincidence of course....or maybe I am paranoid....

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

Anglo Pacific royalty company with Aussie exposure.Nice divi.

Decl:been long since 2020,

15 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

If cancel culture becomes a thing on the LSE then most of my investments going forward will be in physical Gold and Silver.

Stocks are far too risky in this environment.

Interesting psot from Mish ref LME

Realsie this may not be what you meant but I think it is if you know what I mean

LME Violates Number One Cardinal Rule: Never Cancel Trades - Mish Talk - Global Economic Trend Analysis

LME Violates Number One Cardinal Rule: Never Cancel Trades

Nickel futures remain suspended after a Chinese producer could not come up with an $8 billion margin call. What's going on?

 

 

 

CHINESE TYCOON TELLS BANKS HE WANTS TO KEEP SHORTING NICKEL Why not! If the price spikes again, he bankrupts the exchange/his broker, and they bail him out again. If prices collapse, he walks away with $billions. Free call option. And regulators tell me DeFi is dangerous?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth

 

@biancoresearch

As a 'TradFi guy" I'm often asked the appeal of crypto/Defi. The answer is simple, TradFi markets are broken. The blow up all the time. Defi does not. And to watch the CEO of the LME explain why he rugged $8 billion from other traders to save a Chinese Tycoon is sickening. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1501735055454097410

 

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth

 

@biancoresearch

6/8 Now we have the LME canceling 9,000 trades worth $4b effectively using this money (stolen) from "regular" traders to bailout a Chinese Tycoon.

 

 

Unprecedented Action

The Fed, likely acting on orders from the Biden administration, froze the US dollar reserve assets of Russia.

Some may cheer this others not, but perhaps by the time I finish this post, those cheering now may have second thoughts. 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think we are at the tipping point now, will actually be in recession by start of Q2 whilst the statistics take time to recognise the fact.

Roads were dead by 6pm tonight.

Spent a couple of night shifts driving around towns on Sat/Sun night.Your psot echoes my expereince.

The hospitality industry is absolutely ******d despite the fact they've boarded up a lot of the competition or loaded hotels with asylum seekers.The rest stil can't get full

[sancho panza]

BK checklist first from sept 2020 orinignally.Seeing a couple of more boxes ticked

the only thing really missing here is a weak dollar phase.

More and more I'm coming round to the fact that it may not happen.Oil price is more reliable indicator.Western economies look toasted.

 

t's funny talking about US yields.I wrote the following psot in Sept 2020 .My first attempt  at trying to build a checklist of stock market  BK red flags.At the time the US 10 yr yd was 0.623%-now 1.74%.

I'm trying to think of any other indicators that might provide a red flag,so please feel free to suggest any.None of these are set in stone but if/as more get ticked off then,I'll strt adjsuting I suspect.

1) oil price rise to $80+

2) copper> $3.60

3) GSR <45

4)DXY <85

5) cable >$1.65

6) UST 10 year >2%

To which I might add

EUR/USD>1.45,copper/gold ratio>0.0002,UST 10yr-2yr yd >1.5

[sancho panza]

BAT +Imps during tech crash

Just sayin@

Decl:long the pair.

[jamanda]

With regard to building activity my friend is an estimator (fire protection and dry lining) and has never been so busy.  Having to work weekends to try to keep up.

[sleepwello'nights]

9 hours ago, Majorpain said:

 

Gordon Brown: We should have jailed the bankers

Better 10 years late (and only listened to by his wife) than never I suppose? 

Hindsight.