Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[TNS]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Just noticed that the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down over 1,000 points this morning at 19,500. Down over 10,000 from a year ago. Just how bad is the Chinese economy? 

Nowhere near as bad as the UK/US I imagine but who knows. Smoke and mirrors.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

14 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Stagflation fears (rate rises Fed meeting today) and wokeism in the US of dems bringing in windfall taxes on oil.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2022/03/12/democrats-file-new-tax-on-alleged-windfall-profits-by-big-oil/?sh=e0320f97a86e

Because taxing oil companies more will bring fuel prices down...

They're not actually economically illiterate so they want to make driving too expensive for people. As North America, along with Australia, is the most car-dependent region on Earth they aren't doing it for votes.

[desertorchid]

16 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Just noticed that the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down over 1,000 points this morning at 19,500. Down over 10,000 from a year ago. Just how bad is the Chinese economy? 

A "dynamic zero" covid policy is destroying the economy. The fact the government seems intent on pursuing it indefinitely due to its immersion into China is driving capital out the market. Very different forces in HK driving the market than in GB.

[Lightscribe]

13 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Because taxing oil companies more will bring fuel prices down...

They're not actually economically illiterate so they want to make driving too expensive for people. As North America, along with Australia, is the most car-dependent region on Earth they aren't doing it for votes.

Of course it won’t bring it down, but that was never really the aim was it, judging by all the western governments actions these last couple of years? Higher prices will mean less self independence and more dependence on the government. It was never about government illiteracy.

The governments have managed to bring all  encompassing sweeping powers to lock down and sanction people at will, all through the back door without much of a struggle from the plebs by using the indoctrination of fear.

Why would they need a vote anymore? Especially when the controlled opposition sings from the same hymn sheet.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Just been copied in to a formal announcement from British Steel from a building contractor. With immediate effect, British Steel is increasing the price of new orders by £250/tonne.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/03/11/british-steel-imposes-biggest-ever-instant-price-hike/

The builder has requested that they pass this price increase on to the client. Very little choice I think.

This is not boding well for the construction industry........

It is boding well though for our investments that built out their assets during the dis-inflation cycle with bonds at coupon rates at 2% or less ,market hasnt woke up to that fact yet,dis-inflation favours new ideas and new companies,inflation favours old ideas and maany old companies.

[DurhamBorn]

48 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Petrol prices at all time highs...Shell and BP falling.

 

WTF is going on ?

Markets arent linear ,oilies are going to where they are going in their own time.Lower for longer is much better given the share buy backs.Market likely fears taxes and a speeding up of renewables etc.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Petrol prices at all time highs...Shell and BP falling.

 

WTF is going on ?

Thought the same...on Bloomberg the guy explained it as "Russia oil supply issue more important in short-term than Iran as it is more likely to be an issue; Iran is just a temporary phase, and that Russia was reflected in last weeks inflated prices. As a result the market looks on Iran issue with slightly more optimism of being resolved and so moves slightly down on the over priced corrections from last weeks price action".

Hope it makes sense now after my convoluted explanation?

[DurhamBorn]

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

Feeling brave?

https://www.ncondezienergy.com/

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

Thungela & Arch resources have been good this past year, slipping back a bit at the moment

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Just been copied in to a formal announcement from British Steel from a building contractor. With immediate effect, British Steel is increasing the price of new orders by £250/tonne.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/03/11/british-steel-imposes-biggest-ever-instant-price-hike/

The builder has requested that they pass this price increase on to the client. Very little choice I think.

This is not boding well for the construction industry........

Being in a highly diverse part of London I remember in the 2008 crash. There was a lot of Polish builders in the area and a shortage of £50 notes in the country as they were all being sent abroad. After the construction work dried up, it turned into a ghost town, same on the train. My friends family all had a family construction business, they had no work at the time and were scrabbling around for odd jobs. In the end the dad ended up paying their wages for months doing jobs for his own house.

Now amplify that by 10 (Lithuanians, Romanians, Poles and Bulgarians) and we’ll have some kind of picture what that means for the main cities. London is a skyline of cranes and construction projects for new build flats.

No more Chinese investment money (Evergrande saw to that) and Russian money has been taken out the ballgame. All that will now be shelved and sat on just like last time.

The UK’s economy is the property market. Without flipping, instant gains, parking dodgy money and leveraged debt it’s game over for the employment of a good proportion of the country.

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

I was thinking your back garden. Set up shop, get us all down the mine, yellow reduced sticker sustenance, Dosbods Carbon Bigfootprint Energy Ltd. 

[Noallegiance]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

Thungela has shot up since inception but no div.

 

And Vale SA has coal as part of their resources. Big div and in Brazil.

[Chewing Grass]

Look what I've found, produced quite promptly at the end of each month with February showing roughly a 20-25% increases across the board.

Building materials and components statistics: February 2022

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/building-materials-and-components-statistics-february-2022

[MrXxxx]

33 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

Well following their announcement [increasing production] this morning it looks as though the Chinese a) have no interest in following COP26 recommendations, and b) may not be eyeing cheap imports from Russia...and as for Germany, well they are [politically] unsure about extending their nuclear plants and have stated that operationally it would be difficult i.e. it would take a year before producing any supply, are being pressured both politically and economically not to buy Russian gas, and so this only leaves them with their other option i.e  increasing their home-based resource of coal from the West/Ruhr of the country [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-step-up-plans-cut-dependence-russia-gas-2022-02-27/] ....basically the Germans are 'over a barrel' at the moment regarding energy, and I believe are taking a 'two-pronged' approach by 1. Filling their gas reserves to full at any cost [and whilst politically they can, hence 'fudging' the sanctions at the moment], and 2. Hoping by the time the gas reserves are needed/empty the whole Russia/Ukraine issue will be resolved...see also:

 

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-crisis-forces-germany-to-change-course-on-energy/a-60968585

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-reactivates-coal-power-plants-amid-russian-gas-supply-threats/

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-coal-tops-wind-as-primary-electricity-source/a-59168105

https://www.ans.org/news/article-3274/germany-coal-tops-wind-energy-in-2021-but-theres-more-to-the-story/

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Thungela has shot up since inception but no div.

I had doubled my money with TGA before any Div would have been applied if in fact it had one. So overall very happy.

My only regret was not putting more in at the beginning.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

29 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I was thinking your back garden. Set up shop, get us all down the mine, yellow reduced sticker sustenance, Dosbods Carbon Bigfootprint Energy Ltd. 

Pizza for lunch and tree houses for accomodation in the 'hedge'.

[Harley]

I wonder what's up.  Had a call from a major builders merchants asking if I needed help with bids, etc.  Haven't used them for a while so maybe just checking I'm alive or going to close the account.  Or.......?  Any views on the construction market atm?  My neighbour was quite negative about 2022 in December.

PS:  To add I got a super quick delivery from another merchants.  Not at all normal.

[dnb24]

53 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It is boding well though for our investments that built out their assets during the dis-inflation cycle with bonds at coupon rates at 2% or less ,market hasnt woke up to that fact yet,dis-inflation favours new ideas and new companies,inflation favours old ideas and maany old companies.

It’s also a 25% increase on prices- not far off your 30% uplift forecast in 2019!!! 

[belfastchild]

40 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

Once a month, when Im out in the van, I pick up 4 bags and store them about the garden. Picked up two coal bunkers off freecycle 2 summers ago. Built another couple with freecycle gathered pallets and left over fibreglass transparent roofing.
Run out of non-noticeable space now.

Thats probably not the sort of tip you were looking for ;-)

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

It’s also a 25% increase on prices- not far off your 30% uplift forecast in 2019!!! 

Im sorry for being slightly under,but the other 5% will arrive in the 2nd half 

[Noallegiance]

23 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I had doubled my money with TGA before any Div would have been applied if in fact it had one. So overall very happy.

My only regret was not putting more in at the beginning.

Yeah same. I doubled but sold out last week before this current dip. Fed it into Divs. I had too many non-divs in my portfolio.

Plus I have Vale SA so still got exposure.

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does the hive have any ideas for coal investment?,obvious the next few years will see demand increase by a lot.Looks like the best energy investment going 

WTF.  You want stocks?  Based on your posts, just buy yourself some plant and start digging up the neighborhood.  After all, we're meant to get close to the source! 

PS:  If anyone asks, say the holes are for fence posts! 

[DurhamBorn]

How did we miss Sasol SSL during the Covid crash?,10 bagger since 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

WTF.  You want stocks?  Based on your posts, just buy yourself some plant and start digging up the neighborhood.  After all, we're meant to get close to the source!

PS:  If anyone asks, say the holes are for fence posts!

Youl enjoy this one.I went to plant a clematis last week but hit concrete.I could of moved along,or got the hammer drill out,but i decided to do it the old way,big hammer and concrete chisel.Took me over an hour,but i really enjoyed that,focus on a problem then chip away at it.