Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

......To all those posters on this thread who make this an intelligent and sane corner of the internet. 

[sancho panza]

29 minutes ago, wherebee said:

 

A good twitter thread of why the LME actions were basic bandit behaviour.  It's the sort of thing that has gone on for ever in mainland China, and why HK was so successful - because contract law and regulatory oversight was (relatively) honest.  All the trade into China went through HK because nobody could trust any mainland court or institution.

China has chinafied the wests financial systems.  

Return OF capital is number one now, for me.

Just like China has Chinafied the public health response to winter respiratory viruses.

This is another in a long line of 'careful what you wish for'/law of unintended consequences.Bailing out a tycoon is a sign of strength in some respects because it shows they have the cahunas to intervene.

In another far more important respect,it's a sign of how fragile the system is and a warning to traders that their hedges can't be relied upon.In one foul swoop,they've undone decades of good work and the London(and the UK) loses an integral and important reason for big financial firms to do business here.

There will be nothing like by the time Boris leaves office.

He's possibly worse than Gordon Brown and that's saying something.

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Is today when Russia "disconnects" from the internet?  Asking as my PC was making a buzzing sound on boot up this morning!

Could be when the Russkies infiltrated your PC

Might be dust on the fan, hairdryer on a cool setting.

[Democorruptcy]

39 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'd say weekly bearish, monthly on the up, and who cares about the daily!  A very common sight atm.  Just the way I look at things.  DYOR! 

I've always used LTAM ETF given problems with market access to buy some individual shares but have reached out to some trusts if they have materially better yields.

I'm beginning to go for individual country ETFs both here and for emerging markets.  I'd need to get a better feel to decide on which level to invest at.  Same issue for commodities. 

Maybe both, but the more general ETFs for those more buy and hold accounts I don't look at much and the more granular ones for my more active account (still waiting for my IB ISA!).

What you got on Japan and India?

[sancho panza]

Important heads up from the George ref repo market fails due to counterparty risk rising,that predicted the last BK in 2008.Great little 14 min video explaining the basics as he does but the crucail heads up is 12 mins

1 repo fails,

2 dollar spiking

3 gold spiking

4 eurodollar futures curve inverting

5 UST curve flattening

?6 CDS curve spiking

Saying these warnings were flashing red before Russia went into UKraine

 

[Loki]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

Is today when Russia "disconnects" from the internet?  Asking as my PC was making a buzzing sound on boot up this morning!

That's what I heard, I don't know exactly how much of a disconnect it really is, it sounds like huge news but I've barely seen it mentioned

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Could be when the Russkies infiltrated your PC

Might be dust on the fan, hairdryer on a cool setting.

Fan?  I need a fan? 

[Pip321]

15 hours ago, Pip321 said:

 

No worries…easy mistake to make. I am back after being away in Birmingham for a couple of days and will start catching up with emails first thing.

I left you a simple watching brief on my little punt on Evraz….pretty sure you can’t have messed that up. Catch up tomorrow 🤔

 

15 hours ago, Loki said:

OK, bye for now...see ya then....

Cheers…..top job matey. I won’t ask you to look after the goldfish when we are away next 🤦🏻‍♂️🐟

Still at least I don’t need to track the Evraz share price today, that’s one less job…..every cloud.🥳

[JimmyTheBruce]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Exactly.

 

I think all assumptions about the respect for rule of law in western countries needs revisiting urgently.

 

Anyone who thinks they won't do as they please when it suits them needs their head examining.

I totally agree with this, but if one does revisit those assumptions, the only available options are gold, silver, cash or other things that you can physically hold (wine, classic cars, art, etc have been discussed here before), or land (forestry/farm land also been discussed).

And they can come and take those things off you too unless you add firearms to your shopping list.

I am eternally grateful for the existence of this thread, but the thoughts that it engenders do sometimes leave me at a loss and slightly depressed. I'd just like the fruits of my labour to not be stolen.

Maybe ignorance truly is bliss 

[SpectrumFX]

5 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I totally agree with this, but if one does revisit those assumptions, the only available options are gold, silver, cash or other things that you can physically hold (wine, classic cars, art, etc have been discussed here before), or land (forestry/farm land also been discussed).

And they can come and take those things off you too unless you add firearms to your shopping list.

I am eternally grateful for the existence of this thread, but the thoughts that it engenders do sometimes leave me at a loss and slightly depressed. I'd just like the fruits of my labour to not be stolen.

Maybe ignorance truly is bliss 

It's a hard and unpleasant truth, but when your back is truly against the wall an axe is a far better investment than a gold coin.

 

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

It's a hard and unpleasant truth, but when your back is truly against the wall an axe is a far better investment than a gold coin.

 

Buy someone's axe with your gold coin, then hit him on the head with your new axe and take your gold coin back. That's a hard unpleasant truth for the chap with the axe.

[Pip321]

Trying to find out why stock market just jumped up at 11:20am. Seems to be driven by Banks & Co just went up between 1 and 2%. Must be missing something?. 

[moneyscam]

2 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Trying to find out why stock market just jumped up at 11:20am. Seems to be driven by Banks & Co just went up between 1 and 2%. Must be missing something?. 

Probably this.

 

[Eventually Right]

 

Not a short listen, but I thought a very good discussion of commodities by some well informed people, particularly "Shrub"

 

[planit]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Seems like the LME's actions will have some consequences after all

EDIT: Archive.is link to the Bloomberg article: https://archive.ph/l04O2

From the Bloomberg piece

 

The consequences will probably be litigation.

Not really surprising that the Chinese owners of the LME use normal China business practices to bail out a connected Chinese investor and save a couple of Chinese banks.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Trying to find out why stock market just jumped up at 11:20am. Seems to be driven by Banks & Co just went up between 1 and 2%. Must be missing something?. 

Taking heads on Bloomberg broke off interviewing a chap to give @moneyscam's quote about Putin, then went for a commercial break. Repeated it again as soon as they came back. It was one of their a buy buy jobs.

[Harley]

53 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What you got on Japan and India?

Need to work on them.  The person has VJPN, HFEL, and some emerging market stuff.  Japan momentum seems up on the daily but bouncing along on the bottom on the rest.  A few false starts but one to watch?  I personally currently own stocks.  India is overdue a revisit.  PDYOR.

[Pip321]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Taking heads on Bloomberg broke off interviewing a chap to give @moneyscam's quote about Putin, then went for a commercial break. Repeated it again as soon as they came back. It was one of their a buy buy jobs.

Thanks.

I know it all sounds very short term of me to have asked….but i am looking at this old Lloyds stock I hold. I have never traded it or watched it closely. I have just let it go from 80p to 23p and back. And it is a big lump to just ignore  

Now it’s in the isa I am going to ‘manage it’. I am going to sell first (ie not buy more) and buy if it falls back. Each pence is £600/700.

I must have said ‘I wish I had sold it and bought it back a hundred times’. Appreciate that’s not the true spirit of this thread but this is a share that consistently underperforms for me so I might use the daily glitches to swing trade it a bit without any extra risk to my capital holding as at today. Particularly with the way the west are reporting the Ukraine….it looks to me like this market will wobble for weeks. 

The worst case is I sell and it rockets but it’s been a millstone round the neck for years and I could live with that. I would then just replace it with a better share. 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Need to work on them.  The person has VJPN, HFEL, and some emerging market stuff.  Japan momentum seems up on the daily but bouncing along on the bottom on the rest.  A few false starts but one to watch?  I personally currently own stocks.  India is overdue a revisit.  PDYOR.

HFEL latest on HL has only a small India and no Japan in the top countries.

Australia	22.53%
Taiwan	17.87%
South Korea	12.81%
China	11.90%
Hong Kong	10.06%
Singapore	9.27%
Indonesia	3.13%
India	3.02%
New Zealand	2.82%

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/henderson-far-east-income-ltd-ord-npv

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Thanks.

I know it all sounds very short term of me to have asked….but i am looking at this old Lloyds stock I hold. I have never traded it or watched it closely. I have just let it go from 80p to 23p and back. And it is a big lump to just ignore  

Now it’s in the isa I am going to ‘manage it’. I am going to sell first (ie not buy more) and buy if it falls back. Each pence is £600/700.

I must have said ‘I wish I had sold it and bought it back a hundred times’. Appreciate that’s not the true spirit of this thread but this is a share that consistently underperforms for me so I might use the daily glitches to swing trade it a bit without any extra risk to my capital holding as at today. Particularly with the way the west are reporting the Ukraine….it looks to me like this market will wobble for weeks. 

The worst case is I sell and it rockets but it’s been a millstone round the neck for years and I could live with that. I would then just replace it with a better share. 

If interest rates were to rise gradually, I'd expect LLOY to go up. If the problems in Europe get worse that's unlikely to help!

[invalid]

32 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Trying to find out why stock market just jumped up at 11:20am. Seems to be driven by Banks & Co just went up between 1 and 2%. Must be missing something?. 

 

Posted about that over on the Ukraine thread - IAG up and CEY down - both moved at 11:20am.

Is this due to some sort of automated trading algo? Seems odd that everything moved at the same time.

 

[Pip321]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

If interest rates were to rise gradually, I'd expect LLOY to go up. If the problems in Europe get worse that's unlikely to help!

Agree and thanks. i think long term is a decent UK share.

I am mindful this isn’t a traders forum but I think the volatility has made me wary of holding these old shares after a little run upwards. And to be fair these have gone from 39p to 46p this week. I would have been very happy with 46p on Monday. 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Agree and thanks. i think long term is a decent UK share.

I am mindful this isn’t a traders forum but I think the volatility has made me wary of holding these old shares after a little run upwards. And to be fair these have gone from 39p to 46p this week. I would have been very happy with 46p on Monday. 

It dropped into the high 30's early Monday and I should have had a play!

[Pip321]

Forget the last 40 minutes. I am going to the pub and leaving those Lloyds shares.

Dow looks like it’s going to open higher and Putin said some positive things (or should I say less negative things) about the peace talks.

Knowing my luck I will sell and they will race past 50p. I will stick with just watching and moaning about it. 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Forget the last 40 minutes. I am going to the pub and leaving those Lloyds shares.

Dow looks like it’s going to open higher and Putin said some positive things (or should I say less negative things) about the peace talks.

Knowing my luck I will sell and they will race past 50p. I will stick with just watching and moaning about it. 

They were above 50p in Jan & Feb.