Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Nah.  Just the price for me!  All the analysis in the world whether macro or micro is fine but if it ain't in the price......!  

The only difference between me then and now is I look at price (and in a structured way) rather than any narratives.  I'm just a godless jerk in such matters.

And allocations suited to my time of life.  That's the one big thing I don't see coming through in this thread.  It's fun to muck around with a few stocks but I hope there's more to it than that?

Of course, separately, I discuss the true meaning of that fiat price!  And the real "super macro" - like them taking away people's gains from macro bets!

PS:  Ah, just caught up.  It's about those boards.  A happy life is avoiding toxicity in all its forms.  I'm in agreement with the hedge fund manager who remarked how much better he did moving out of NYC to the sticks and switching off the media.  

FOD:  Macro, fundamental, technical.  All wrapped up in a lovely set of allocations!

[JMD]

2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I think they struggle to understand any other cultures. Ive been to China, Russia, ME, Africa, south america etc etc and people do think differently both culturally and religiously. Ive been right across the US and people there think differently depending on coast/inland blue/red states etc etc. I remember I stayed with one woman in an airbnb in a red state and we got talking over a bottle or two and one of the things she said was about 'these people coming in and telling us how we should live our lives' and she was talking about people from the east coast US and chicago!

One of the things I took away from China and Russia is that it reminded me how Ireland (or my interpretation of the history of Ireland) was, thinking in terms of decades or centuries rather than the US/UK two year election cycle. Now, my impression might be wrong and maybe millenials etc all over are the same but there will still be people in positions of power there that still think like that. Compare those to the western 'leaders' who by their very nature will be weak because they are only looking 6 months, 6 weeks, 6 hours ahead.

Anyway I came on to say Id had a letter on my desk for a month now that I hadnt read. From Virgin media saying my phone line will be cut off in May as I will be moved to their fibre internet telephony service and I need to arrange a technician appointment. That will be some cost reduction exercise.
Interesting to note the 'what happens if theres a power cut or fibre network disruption' paragraph. Lots of nice words but basically says you are cut off. If you need a phone line we will set you up an emergency line. Virgin is a primary carrier so all those piggybacking on all the networks will be the first to be cut in any outage. Something worth bearing in mind if you go for cheap net, mobile or other access from non primary carriers.

Tinfoil hat time but with the upcoming runet switchover it might be worth screenshotting your bank balances, share holdings etc etc and Ive taken a couple of months food/fuel money out in cash this last couple of weeks.

Yes, it was surprise to me when I heard that all copper telephone lines will be terminated by 2025.... First they came for our pounds and ounces and we did nothing, next they came for our TV ariels...!!

[Loki]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

They will be pleading for the Government to bring in price controls next.

On Bloomberg yesterday an interviewe mentioned just that i.e the governments should impose a windfall tax on energy producers and use this to subsidize the consumers.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

20 grand travel max allowance for away games.
I guess the players will be driving their own cars over to Lille next week then and even if they do get through no tickets allowed to be sold for the next round.
 

Eurostar direct. Brilliant service.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

And now the European refiners can’t get enough heavy oil. See the current price of heating oil (which has increased far more than the price of crude).

Repsol did some deals for heavy crude last year from the Canadians i think,they should be sitting pretty if others struggle,might get them to double again yet from here in time.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I wonder what Saudi, UAE, etc think of the sanctions on Russia? Sure they're needed for now but lots of people thought the same about Russia. I would write down the value of Newcastle United if I was Saudi. No point throwing good money after bad. Unless your time horizon is very short. Abu Dhabi (?) have had their fun with Man City. Better call time.

Those countries still have something to offer. If I was a Turkish businessman with a house in Mayfair I'd have it on the market. Same for all of Africa and most of Asia. I'd include China.

2nd order effects and unintended consequences abound.

[janch]

3 hours ago, feed said:

Anecdotal, my partner just took a 6.5% pay rise, with a £4k bonus.  Much more than she was expecting and more than she's had before from the company in 10 years of being there.   Insurance industry and they've been struggling with staff leaving / unable to recruit.

I took around 5%, but as part of my job i get to see what the impact to the company is in actual costs and we're looking at headcount costs increasing by around 20% year on year, across a mix of UK/DE/ES. including fringe and taxes.  

Wage cost inflation very much in the system.  
 

Some bin men in Wiltshire are on strike for 2 weeks as they don't like the pay offer:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-60675883

Summer of discontent anyone?  Back to the 70s

[AWW]

On the subject of uranium miners... I have some Yellow Cake, but don't like to put all my eggs in one basket. Does anyone have any recommendations for a uranium miners ETF?

[ThoughtCriminal]

The West are masters of "play stupid games, win stupid prizes".

[Transistor Man]

12 minutes ago, AWW said:

On the subject of uranium miners... I have some Yellow Cake, but don't like to put all my eggs in one basket. Does anyone have any recommendations for a uranium miners ETF?

GEIGER COUNTER LTD

Not a ETF. I have some, not a huge amount.

 

NexGen Energy Ltd   20.76%

Ur-Energy Inc   14.15%

Cameco Corp   7.53%

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Units   7.35%

IsoEnergy Ltd   6.80%

Fission Uranium Corp   5.93%

National Atomic Co Kazatomprom JSC ADR   5.58%

Paladin Energy Ltd   4.94%

Energy Fuels Inc   4.78%

Denison Mines Corp   3.64%

[DoINeedOne]

[Don Coglione]

39 minutes ago, janch said:

Some bin men in Wiltshire are on strike for 2 weeks as they don't like the pay offer:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-60675883

Summer of discontent anyone?  Back to the 70s

Indeed, I have had to start putting my empties in the boot of the car, as the fuckers didn't turn up for the recycling on Tuesday!

[feed]

50 minutes ago, janch said:

Some bin men in Wiltshire are on strike for 2 weeks as they don't like the pay offer:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-60675883

Summer of discontent anyone?  Back to the 70s

If it's just back to the '70's i'll take it.  

 

And in other, perhaps not the best time to negotiate news.

Iran: US offer on nuclear deal 'unreasonable'

https://www.teletrader.com/shran-us-offer-on-nuclear-deal-unreasonable/news/details/57465019?internal=1

Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani stated on Thursday that the United States made "unreasonable offers" for reaching a nuclear agreement.

"US approach to Iran's principled demands, coupled with its unreasonable offers and unjustified pressure to hastily reach an agreement, show that US isn't interested in a strong deal that would satisfy both parties," shared Shamkhani.

Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian told European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell in a phone call that Iran is "ready to immediately finalize a good agreement," but added that "the Western side's rush and haste cannot prevent Iran's redlines from being observed," according to Fars news agency.

 

[Ma2]

40 minutes ago, AWW said:

On the subject of uranium miners... I have some Yellow Cake, but don't like to put all my eggs in one basket. Does anyone have any recommendations for a uranium miners ETF?

Can't add much to what @Transistor Man has said except there is a uranium miner ETF but there's no KID for it so can't get it here. Not sure how to force the issue on this as I think it's just a hangover from our EU days?

[janch]

Just had my council tax bill.......up by 1.99% this year.  Could be worse and sounds less than 2%. 

 

In the same post was a letter from Coventry BS

......quote........ "Good news - we have increased the rate on your 30 Day Notice ISA"

.............................drum roll:........................... by 0.10%

 

This is on a small amount of cash which I haven't moved since the time when IRs were a lot higher and cash accounts were worth having. 

[Noallegiance]

43 minutes ago, AWW said:

On the subject of uranium miners... I have some Yellow Cake, but don't like to put all my eggs in one basket. Does anyone have any recommendations for a uranium miners ETF?

I literally just bought the Sprott Uranium ETF

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusivedeutsche-telekom-launches-20-billion-auction-of-mobile-towers-unit-sources-2602590

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, janch said:

Just had my council tax bill.......up by 1.99% this year.  Could be worse and sounds less than 2%. 

 

In the same post was a letter from Coventry BS

......quote........ "Good news - we have increased the rate on your 30 Day Notice ISA"

.............................drum roll:........................... by 0.10%

 

This is on a small amount of cash which I haven't moved since the time when IRs were a lot higher and cash accounts were worth having. 

Got my Council tax bill through today as well, about 5% rise here in London.

[Castlevania]

32 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

GEIGER COUNTER LTD

Not a ETF. I have some, not a huge amount.

 

NexGen Energy Ltd   20.76%

Ur-Energy Inc   14.15%

Cameco Corp   7.53%

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Units   7.35%

IsoEnergy Ltd   6.80%

Fission Uranium Corp   5.93%

National Atomic Co Kazatomprom JSC ADR   5.58%

Paladin Energy Ltd   4.94%

Energy Fuels Inc   4.78%

Denison Mines Corp   3.64%

Geiger counter is run by a hedge fund and thus the costs are quite high (although they don’t charge a performance fee like some hedge funds do).

[Errol]

The RSX etf is valued at zero according to ii. Is that correct?

[BurntBread]

15 minutes ago, Errol said:

The RSX etf is valued at zero according to ii. Is that correct?

If you can buy it at that price, it's correct.

[Errol]

21 minutes ago, Errol said:

The RSX etf is valued at zero according to ii. Is that correct?

Looks like trading was halted - https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220307005286/en/Trading-of-VanEck’s-Russia-ETFs-RSX-and-RSXJ-Halted

[Castlevania]

Good results from K&S earlier. €0.20 a share dividend announced.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/potash-miner-kss-shares-surge-dividend-strong-cash-flow-2022-03-10/

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

On the subject of uranium miners... I have some Yellow Cake, but don't like to put all my eggs in one basket. Does anyone have any recommendations for a uranium miners ETF?

URA, i made fantastic profits over the years,but the government/EU decided to protect me from investments without a KIDD so now i cant invest in it,or COPEX and many others.Funny enough it was the start of capital controls,cant be hedging sterling we want to print it away.