Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

My council tax going up again by 5%. Council tax is my main worry as it is such a large percentage of my outgoings. My fear is after a few more years of continued 5% increases people will start to squeal. It will then be revamped with the new council tax levied against how energy efficient your home is. 

Council tax is the biggie for me.You can reduce your income tax exposure in numerous ways(part time working,SIPPs etc) but council tax can't be avoided unless you pack in work.

The crunch is coming where govts voracious spending habits meets taxpayers willingness to pay.Especially when you see some old people with massive homes getting free care paid for by young families in rented.

You do wonder how much longer this will go on?First recession will test people's generosity.

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I wasn't even factoring in Covid, what a great excuse for not raise IRs ( or putting them -ve ). 

 

This isn't March 2020.Inflation in the US is 5.4%,UK 3.1% and as we oft discuss,likely much higher if you calculated it without using owner occupying hosuing costs inlc imputed rents.....

I'm not sure the scope is there for neg rates in this environement.

4 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

My word, once people twig they are soon expected to work past 70 they won’t want to play anymore.

I’m foolishly voluntarily paying NI contributions (since I’ve been MIA overseas for so long) but should pull the plug.

This is already happening.I think the lockdown has caused a lot of people to reassess priorities especially in terms of stress and killing tehmselves early so that a chunk of society can sit on it's arse and do nothing.

The welfare state needs the compliance of the worker bees to continue in it's current form.As you say,I think their paitence is running out.It's not sjtu on boards like this that I hear these sentiments but amongst work colleauges/friends etc

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Ominous.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/downing-street-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-21914040#source=breaking-news

some context for his next flight of delusion.

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

some context for his next flight of delusion.

 

So its possible lockdown 3 is coming, though it does seem we never truly left lockdown 1.

[AWW]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

You say wealth taxes wouldn't be a vote winner... But I do wonder if certain wealth taxes could, rather easily, be 'politically sold' as a vote winner? How about the ostensibly very difficult introduction of property taxes on owners main house gains

Completely agree and don't understated why this hasn't been done yet. Something along the lines of, 40% CGT on main residence, payable upon death, which pays for elderly care. Don't want to pay it? Opt out of state provided elderly care and sell the house to pay for private care. People can't use the old "but I worked hard to buy this house" (and I want the working man to pay for my care to protect my kids' inheritance) trope when the levy only applies to the capital gain.

[sancho panza]

32 minutes ago, janch said:

Get well soon Sancho.......I was wondering if you might succumb seeing as you must have had a lot of patient contact.

How interesting you caught it from a vaccinated patient.  They're probably more likely to be spreading it than us "pure bloods".  It seems the vaccines are not what they were cracked up to be.

I'm in the south west where cases are rocketing apparently and blamed on children in schools according to the BBC.

Sorry to derail the thread.....

I wonder what Boris will do?  Another lockdown over Christmas is my bet.

Cheers Janch,it's been quite mild tbh.Just been sleeping a lot.

My crew mate pointed out it was the first symptomatic covid postive patient he'd seen in three months.Which sort of says it all about how they're using the case count to cover for the fact that hospitalizations are down.

The hardcore 'save the NHS' at all costs types are already calling for more lockdown but anyone with an ounce of sense can see how totally counterproductive that would be in terms of sending waiting lists even higher than 5.7mn,reducing tax receipts and pushing the claimant count higher.

And that's before we being to tally the effects on mental health,kids etc

The problem for Bozza is that he's put himself in hoc to these zealots.Time will tell.

[janch]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The hardcore 'save the NHS' at all costs types are already calling for more lockdown but anyone with an ounce of sense can see how totally counterproductive that would be in terms of sending waiting lists even higher than 5.7mn,reducing tax receipts and pushing the claimant count higher.

I quite agree but the zealots always seem to win......If I see Chris Witty or that miserable Jenny woman or that ridiculous set with the flags I have to switch off the TV.   It's nearly as bad as seeing the Blair creature

[HousePriceMania]

Interesting correlation between bond rates and BoE base rates here ( causation/correlation accepted )

 

Looks like they are Bond market is expecting 1% base rate very soon.

2 weeks today and we'll see.  

If the do raise to 1% by march say, what effect on your share holdings will it have ?

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/banks-mortgages-rates-bank-of-england-barclays-natwest-nationwide-cost-b961209.html

 

"The City now expects the Bank of England to raise rates from historic lows of 0.1% either next month or the month after, with base rates expected to hit 1% by August.

Analysis for the Evening Standard shows that would increase the annual cost of the nation’s mortgages by a total of £14 billion, moneysucked out of the economy in the midst of a likely slowdown caused by Covid and supply chain crises."

 

Lucky guess on my part there.

These anal-ists are being disingenuous not stating that the 1% rise should see house prices fall to 2019 levels saying new buyers £25,000.

[Starsend]

32 minutes ago, AWW said:

Completely agree and don't understated why this hasn't been done yet. Something along the lines of, 40% CGT on main residence, payable upon death, which pays for elderly care. Don't want to pay it? Opt out of state provided elderly care and sell the house to pay for private care. People can't use the old "but I worked hard to buy this house" (and I want the working man to pay for my care to protect my kids' inheritance) trope when the levy only applies to the capital gain.

Completely disagree. I've been robbed of more than enough over my lifetime to pay for everything I'll need five times over. The answer isn't to steal even more, it's to steal less and use it for what it's supposed to be used for i.e. not housing thousands of dingy immigrants a day, people who don't want to work and on and on.

And actually I did work hard for my house and paid for it out of heavily taxed income.

If they don't want to pay for my old age care then I'll have a big chunk of that tax back please and then I'll be fine.

As always people think the answer if to go steal more from those who've been prudent instead of going after the real thieves.

[Hancock]

53 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

some context for his next flight of delusion.

 

This bloke has a valid point
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/cop26-government-wont-hesitate-lock-country/

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Petro-gold...tick tock...

 

 

Petro-gold? Flashbacks to reading Freegold/FOFOA a while back

https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/IGWT_2019_SPECIAL_Freegold_EN.pdf

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

This bloke has a valid point
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/cop26-government-wont-hesitate-lock-country/

Any excuse not to raise IRs then.

You can see it coming.

We need to keep rates lower for longer, more QE etc etc etc.

If this comes to pass, let's face it, the system is broken, it aint coming back.  get ready to fight for your lives.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Any excuse not to raise IRs then.

You can see it coming.

We need to keep rates lower for longer, more QE etc etc etc.

If this comes to pass, let's face it, the system is broken, it aint coming back.  get ready to fight for your lives.

There is huge systemic risk now.Its between the mass scroungers ,welfare and state worker and private sector workers.Im watching like a one eyed Kestrel on if the BOE raise rates but still QE.My dial is homing in on when QE goes so low government cant fund on the bond market.Its close.I think the structural deficit is over £120 billion.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

There is huge systemic risk now.Its between the mass scroungers ,welfare and state worker and private sector workers.Im watching like a one eyed Kestrel on if the BOE raise rates but still QE.My dial is homing in on when QE goes so low government cant fund on the bond market.Its close.I think the structural deficit is over £120 billion.

Are you worried? 

Do you think the UK could have a BK while US indices continue to rise, which then have their own BK?  I'd assumed it would all happen at once worldwide, which was pretty stupid really.

[Majorpain]

22 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are you worried? 

Do you think the UK could have a BK while US indices continue to rise, which then have their own BK?  I'd assumed it would all happen at once worldwide, which was pretty stupid really.

Everything is financially interconnected. If one of the derivative timebombs goes off and takes one out, they are all counterparties to each other, so they all go under.

[Hardhat]

https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/asias-richest-man-to-build-gigafactory-to-mass-produce-stiesdal-s-new-low-cost-hydrogen-electrolyser/2-1-1079626

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Everything is financially interconnected. If one of the derivative timebombs goes off and takes one out, they are all counterparties to each other, so they all go under.

 

Good point, thanks. It's impossible(?) it could be contained to one country/currency

[Hancock]

34 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are you worried? 

 

Im worried that we won't, i get annoyed when i see my SIPP rising, its nearly 160K i want it to crash down to £60k

Im betting my entire life savings on these useless cunts crashing the stock market like its 1929, lets hope they achieve one thing i want.

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

For me it depends on the USD and the Fed. I think in such an event, you'd see 20 Tn printed in short order. Mightn't stop a credit bust, but it'd keep it short and sharp I think.

Thats what im hoping.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

its nearly 160K i want it to crash down to £60k

Are you going to sell/top slice?

[Hancock]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are you going to sell/top slice?

No idea mate, i'm not really savvy enough to time things to be a trader .. though when it was 120k i said to myself i'll sell it when it gets to 150k (i did add an extra 15k) ... now i think well if it gets to 180k then i could ditch the more profitable parts at that time.

Kind of see the SIPP money as play money, as its in there for the long haul and i can't touch it .... when it was down about 50% i couldn't have cared less, so same applies when it rises.

Only headache for me is the house money, and if the stock market doesn't implode i could still always just buy a house .... If it does crash and i go balls in i can pretty much retire  .... and then i don't have to deal with tight fisted companies that wont pay for my tea. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Are you worried? 

Do you think the UK could have a BK while US indices continue to rise, which then have their own BK?  I'd assumed it would all happen at once worldwide, which was pretty stupid really.

Our market is different to the UK economy.The risk is the government mostly.It depends how much more they can take from the productive to give away,its very close now.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Our market is different to the UK economy.The risk is the government mostly.It depends how much more they can take from the productive to give away,its very close now.

Thanks.  I guess you're looking at the bond market directly, rather than trusting QE announcements?

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks.  I guess you're looking at the bond market directly, rather than trusting QE announcements?

The difference between QE and the structural deficit and the moves in gilt yields.Tell us how much they are struggling to issue gilts.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

The difference between QE and the structural deficit and the moves in gilt yields.Tell us how much they are struggling to issue gilts.

That makes sense even to me, cheers