Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm thinking of buying some Sovereigns I suppose I better wait until they put the interest rates up.

Funny you should say that, I just had that exact same thought after reading this...

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bundesbank-president-weidmann-quits-citing-personal-reasons-2021-10-20/

 

FRANKFURT, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, a relentless critic of the European Central Bank's ultra-easy monetary policy, will step down from his post on Dec. 31, more than five years before his term was due to end, the German central bank said on Wednesday.

 

Now, why do you suppose that might be ?

 

I was very much of the opinion that the Germans would force the ECB to act responsibly.  Clearly not. I expect he will be replaced by someone Rishi Sunak knows.

 

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

a whopping 0.15%

Feck me, run for the hills!

34 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

with a 0.5% to follow.

Feck me, keep running!

Tarts!

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Feck me, run for the hills!

Feck me, keep running!

Tarts!

If that puts people over the edge then there is something really wrong...but we know that already

[HousePriceMania]

I have a question for everyone.

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

I'm now thinking it is:

Rate rise nov ( or dec ) in the UK, US tapering starts

Inflation keeps going up, mainly due to supply chains.

Dec: Stock market takes a bit of a hit

Jan/Feb, another UK rate rise, US talking about rate rise

March stock market keeps heading down, economy in the UK starts to fall apart ( i.e. house prices are falling ) 

April, UK sets rates to 0 starts QE3, or is it QE4, the US ends tapering and continues the insanity.

 

This should be the queue to get rid of any FIAT money you have before anyone realises what's happened.

 

 

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

They do it every few decades.  The intellectuals with their bright ideas get involved in real things in the real world, to our cost. The last was the age of modernist concrete back in the 1960's.

Oh don't, i looked at a few old aerial photos and OS maps of where i live, nowhere special like, and loads of old what would have been country houses got pulled down then, replaced with council blocks and housing estates. Wouldn't happen how.

[Agent ZigZag]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

My council tax going up again by 5%. Council tax is my main worry as it is such a large percentage of my outgoings. My fear is after a few more years of continued 5% increases people will start to squeal. It will then be revamped with the new council tax levied against how energy efficient your home is. 

[geordie_lurch]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I have a question for everyone.

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

I'm now thinking it is:

Rate rise nov ( or dec ) in the UK, US tapering starts

Inflation keeps going up, mainly due to supply chains.

Dec: Stock market takes a bit of a hit

Jan/Feb, another UK rate rise, US talking about rate rise

March stock market keeps heading down, economy in the UK starts to fall apart ( i.e. house prices are falling ) 

April, UK sets rates to 0 starts QE3, or is it QE4, the US ends tapering and continues the insanity.

This should be the queue to get rid of any FIAT money you have before anyone realises what's happened.

I think we are going to see another UK lockdown before Christmas with even more small business closures and 'supply chain' disruptions. I think we will also start to mass deaths in the next 6 months i.e. everyone will know someone who has been 'vaccinated' that dies from something unusual for their age / previous risk profile. These deaths will be put down to a new Covid variant or not enough beds in the NHS etc (they have still been reducing beds for the last 18 months!) but deep down more and more will realise they have been lied to and will want revenge or certainly won't give a shit about their minimum wage jobs. All of this will lead to even more pre planned chaos and disruptions in the UK and most western nations who seem to have signed up to the Great Reset agenda. At some point the people will be begging to be 'saved' and will embrace the new Digital £ in exchange for their new Universal Basic Income / debt forgiveness / fixed mortgage from the Government as interest rates for the old £ rise too fast for the average person to stay afloat. I can see China invading Taiwan in this time frame too with no opposition from Joe Biden and his paid for cronies.

I hope I'm wrong about all of the above but I just can't see how we are ever going back to the old normal without a great deal of deaths and a real fightback from the average person as TPTB will NEVER give back the 'temporary' powers they have seized in the name of Covid

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I have a question for everyone.

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

I'm now thinking it is:

Rate rise nov ( or dec ) in the UK, US tapering starts

Inflation keeps going up, mainly due to supply chains.

Dec: Stock market takes a bit of a hit

Jan/Feb, another UK rate rise, US talking about rate rise

March stock market keeps heading down, economy in the UK starts to fall apart ( i.e. house prices are falling ) 

April, UK sets rates to 0 starts QE3, or is it QE4, the US ends tapering and continues the insanity.

 

This should be the queue to get rid of any FIAT money you have before anyone realises what's happened.

 

 

 

I haven't got a fecking clue!  I have a system I need to use more religiously which takes the stock, etc data and tells me what to do.

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

My fear is after a few more years of continued 5% increases people will start to squeal. It will then be revamped with the new council tax levied against how energy efficient your home is. 

I very much like the lateral thinking, if not the result! 

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

Pandemonium next year.  Nothing ground breaking there I'm just quoting David Hunter basically, BK and Euro/British banks are in a worse state now

[Noallegiance]

Government defeat as peers demand action to bolster future telecoms security (msn.com)

[Noallegiance]

Rishi Sunak 'will slash banks levy by 60 per cent in Budget' (msn.com)

[Noallegiance]

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think we are going to see another UK lockdown before Christmas with even more small business closures and 'supply chain' disruptions. I think we will also start to mass deaths in the next 6 months i.e. everyone will know someone who has been 'vaccinated' that dies from something unusual for their age / previous risk profile. These deaths will be put down to a new Covid variant or not enough beds in the NHS etc (they have still been reducing beds for the last 18 months!) but deep down more and more will realise they have been lied to and will want revenge or certainly won't give a shit about their minimum wage jobs. All of this will lead to even more pre planned chaos and disruptions in the UK and most western nations who seem to have signed up to the Great Reset agenda. At some point the people will be begging to be 'saved' and will embrace the new Digital £ in exchange for their new Universal Basic Income / debt forgiveness / fixed mortgage from the Government as interest rates for the old £ rise too fast for the average person to stay afloat. I can see China invading Taiwan in this time frame too with no opposition from Joe Biden and his paid for cronies.

I hope I'm wrong about all of the above but I just can't see how we are ever going back to the old normal without a great deal of deaths and a real fightback from the average person as TPTB will NEVER give back the 'temporary' powers they have seized in the name of Covid

I wasn't even factoring in Covid, what a great excuse for not raise IRs ( or putting them -ve ). 

 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

All of this will lead to even more pre planned chaos and disruptions in the UK and most western nations who seem to have signed up to the Great Reset agenda.

I expect they will crash the markets (housing, fiat, stocks, crypto, etc) at times that suit them. 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Government defeat as peers demand action to bolster future telecoms security (msn.com)

Stupid logic (diversify to include our threats to provide more security!*#?!!) so not the real reason (graft?), but anyway sounds like hot air ("write something") other than how the 5 eyes peer review is implemented (odd requirement = stitch up?).  As I said people talk and report self serving bullocks, especially them. 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Gullible idiots incapable of thinking outside the herd of ruminants.

Been digesting the chief morons BS about £5K grants for air-source heat pumps for houses.

A typical modest house needs a 30,000 BTU gas boiler and that is about 11KW.

You get one of these and stick it somewhere, they are quite big in comparison.

Now roughly 2.5KW of electricity turns itself into 10KW of heat in ideal conditions which is wonderful.

However no curves are shown to show that if the outside temperature drops that sweet spot of 1:4 drops until it goes negative at -15C where you are putting 2.5KW in but getting less than that out.

Unlike cars people also tend to have heating on at the same time and when the air is still, clear and very cold there is no wind. So electricity demand goes through the roof, heating ability drops and so does the electricity supply.

So every house with one will be probably drawing 5KW min and the net demand is huge.

More diesel farms or STOR facilities it is and very expensive electricity.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/353632946253

Yes, the government scheme runs until 2024, but I note that the year after their hydrogen pilot reports in 2025. I predict hydrogen will still be favored over heat pumps. As you say heat pumps are inefficient and also require massive electric grid upgrade. All this will become apparent by 2025, and so a dash for hydrogen conversion will begin plus the government has bought itself 3 more years of can kicking.

[Sugarlips]

7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

My word, once people twig they are soon expected to work past 70 they won’t want to play anymore.

I’m foolishly voluntarily paying NI contributions (since I’ve been MIA overseas for so long) but should pull the plug.

[HousePriceMania]

27 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

My word, once people twig they are soon expected to work past  NOT COLLECT THE STATE PENSION 70 they won’t want to play anymore.

I’m foolishly voluntarily paying NI contributions (since I’ve been MIA overseas for so long) but should pull the plug.

 

[spygirl]

44 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

I know its obvious but theyd do better forcing 95% of working age people to work rather than pissing around and putting 1 years on UK SRA.

Baby boys born in the UK in 2018 can expect to live on average to age 87.6 years and girls to age 90.2 years, taking into account projected changes in mortality patterns over their lifetime.

In 25 years, cohort life expectancy at birth in the UK is projected to increase by 2.8 years to reach 90.4 years for boys and by 2.4 years to 92.6 years for girls born in 2043.

UK problems isnt people retiring early; its ~30-50% of working age adults not fucking working.

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

UK problems isnt people retiring early; its ~30-50% of working age adults not fucking working.

and receiving other peoples tax.

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

and receiving other peoples tax.

Yep.

 

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, the government scheme runs until 2024, but I note that the year after their hydrogen pilot reports in 2025. I predict hydrogen will still be favored over heat pumps. As you say heat pumps are inefficient and also require massive electric grid upgrade. All this will become apparent by 2025, and so a dash for hydrogen conversion will begin plus the government has bought itself 3 more years of can kicking.

99% certain on that.It will be hydrogen.BP will build a massive plant on Teesside and they will use gas and carbon capture for it,blue hydrogen.Green will come later,government knows this like you say,hence why such a small amount of money for heat pumps.Cars might go the same way yet.

 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

And a large chunk of the other half was built so shabbily it won't last 100 years!  Passivhauses these are not!

The only thing made to last 100 years on current new builds is the  debt to buy it!

[Hancock]

52 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Rishi Sunak 'will slash banks levy by 60 per cent in Budget' (msn.com)

 

51 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

OECD: Retirement age 'may have to rise' to balance the books (msn.com)

Work longer slaves, we need to drop banker taxes so our millionaire communist bosses and their minions don't have to cut their wages.