Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Democorruptcy]

Hussman's latest. He seems a bit less Big Kahuna than usual.

Quote

 

Regardless of whether current valuation extremes are resolved by a market collapse, or instead by a long period of negative real returns where stocks essentially go nowhere in an interesting way, I strongly believe that value-conscious, disciplined, hedged investment strategies can play an important role for investors.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/

 

 

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On SIPPS v ISA spread i look at my SIPP as providing 100% of income between 55 and 67 because you can withdraw £16700 a year tax free.From the year state pension kicks in i only want £3k a year from SIPP as that and SP equals no tax.I want around £17k+ pa so ISA then will have to do around £5k income.

At the moment my ISA is providing all my income,and if it was roughly the same to down 20% by 55 that will be very very good.At 55 most divs will be re-invested until 67 as the SIPP then kicks in and id need nothing from ISA until 67.Week before state pension il go in full drawdown and put 25% tax free cash into my ISA ,or if Inheritance tax close,give to the kids to invest in their SIPPs to get tax relief and some bullion.

As @Democorruptcy says its similar for most,but with tweaks depending on life etc and the inheritance tax implications need thinking about where ISAs etc are very large and SIPPs smaller etc.

 

When you do this [SIPP] can you not also 'recycle' about £4000 back into another pension?...this said, anyone done this and how is it managed i.e. do you take out an extra £4k onto of the £16700 that gets tax BUT then receives the tax back from IR when you put it into the receiving pension?

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Week before state pension il go in full drawdown and put 25% tax free cash into my ISA ,or if Inheritance tax close,give to the kids to invest in their SIPPs

But won't you still get taxed on the other 75% of the full drawdown?

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On a brighter note i bought the lady the cheese,i insisted,

I hope it had a yellow sticker on it?! :-)))

[Harley]

7 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Though might not be possible once you start drawing down:

I've been told you can still pay in as usual as long as you don't draw any income.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

And of course to get poly to styrene needs oil in the first place.

Best get cracking on the biomass or we won't have the material for plastic replacements or insulation!

Hemp insulation?....be a nice use of by/waste product when BATS/IMB get into this area of the market.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Would anyone recommend the SIPPs at hl.co.uk as I already have an account there or should I look elsewhere for these specifically?

No, I wouldn't personally.  IMO they were good but have been overtaken and their standards have slipped.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On a brighter note i bought the lady the cheese,i insisted,

My partner asks what about the rest of it?

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

But won't you still get taxed on the other 75% of the full drawdown?

No,because il only drawdown £3k a year on top of my state pension,so thats my tax allowance gone,then £5k to £8k from my ISA.My kids will get whats in the SIPP when i die.Im structured to take £18k a year tax free mostly.PMs and 5 years cash on top.Il never pay income tax again.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

My partner asks what about the rest of it?

That went back,she didnt need cream cakes or a Quiche 

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,because il only drawdown £3k a year on top of my state pension,so thats my tax allowance gone,then £5k to £8k from my ISA.My kids will get whats in the SIPP when i die.Im structured to take £18k a year tax free mostly.PMs and 5 years cash on top.Il never pay income tax again.

Ah, I see...I assume when you said drawdown you were going to empty it down to zero at that point, whereas you will do just as you state [£3k] and avoid the tax via inheritance.

[MrXxxx]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,because il only drawdown £3k a year on top of my state pension,so thats my tax allowance gone,then £5k to £8k from my ISA.My kids will get whats in the SIPP when i die.Im structured to take £18k a year tax free mostly.PMs and 5 years cash on top.Il never pay income tax again.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/inheritance-tax-attack-on-your-pension-sunak-budget-threat-to-strip-nations-wealth/ar-AAPCjXn?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

You were saying?.......

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/inheritance-tax-attack-on-your-pension-sunak-budget-threat-to-strip-nations-wealth/ar-AAPCjXn?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

You were saying?.......

Kill folk with the Vaxx and steal their investments and pensions, I wouldn't put it past our democratically elected representatives and their masters.

[M S E Refugee]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Doesn't seem eligible for HL ISA or SIPP

Cabot is available with Freetrade.

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't know. I was was emailing my old man a link to EU bail in legislation, and another link to how they had trialled it in Cyprus a couple of years before (when they literally stole cash out of bank accounts of holders over 100k). His response was "if you have it, and they want it, then it's not safe".

You're probably right, but it needs to be watched carefully. Thankfully the law and property rights etc are still very strong in the UK and they will have to tread very carefully.

and @MrXxxx, cash in the bank is most epxosed to forfeiture.Cyrps was a trial run.

WIth bonds it's more the subtle ways govts run soft default politices.

Years ago we went through the issues with shares being held by nominees such that were were technically their assets not ours-we jsut have an entry in the book beside our holding.But that sort of default would be the end of society as we know it.

Much likely,I think they'll tweak laws/rules and force pension funds to buy overrated junk bonds.

key aim for me is to keep as much out of cash & managed ivnestements particualrly bond funds.

 

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Key though is the state pension.The first rule of investing for retirement for me is to have enough to get from where you are to that date.I could live on it if needed fine.The rest is then a calculation about how much you want on top,then bring that forward until they meet with a date.

Iv seen very very few go to early,odd ones who were clueless,but iv seen endless people who went far too late even though they hated work,usually out of fear and adding monthly costs rather than reduce them.

Genuine question,do you ever see a point will suffer the same fate as working age hosueholds-possible default soft or hard?

Same with the bennies?there msut come a point where tehy have to rein themin?

The welfare state

[King of Fools]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here is what the government and BOE have done.

Iv just been in Lidl and a very old lady in front of me at the till.She asked the girl on the till if she could tell her when the bill reached £27.23 as thats all she had and she would have to put back anything over that "everything is just going up so much".Got to a few items left and hit her target,she said oh the cheese ,i needed that,no its ok thankyou.

Lovely decent old lady likely only has the pension.

On a brighter note i bought the lady the cheese,i insisted,

That’s the worst and the best thing I have read for ages.

Youre a good man.

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Genuine question,do you ever see a point will suffer the same fate as working age hosueholds-possible default soft or hard?

Same with the bennies?there msut come a point where tehy have to rein themin?

The welfare state

I see no chance the state pension would go,or be means tested.I think bennies will start to be cracked down on as soon as the BOE stop QE.How they do it i dont know,but bennies and wages are too close together.However the situation is really bad.It could be around hours,housing benefit etc.

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Kill folk with the Vaxx and steal their investments and pensions, I wouldn't put it past our democratically elected representatives and their masters.

It's another tax on the young because it's them who would have got an inheritance tax free. TPTB don't want them inheriting enough to pay their mortgages off early, they want them working and paying tax until they drop.

[Bear Hug]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Available in my Halifax ISA.

Edit. No its not, came up in the search, then computer says no.

I can see Cabot Corp in Trading 212 ISA

[desertorchid]

43 minutes ago, King of Fools said:

That’s the worst and the best thing I have read for ages.

Youre a good man.

He's a fool. She's only doing it so she doesn't have to sell her 1.5 million 5 bedroom detached house.

 

 

Just kidding

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I've been told you can still pay in as usual as long as you don't draw any income.

Can confirm this. Went back and forth on this point with HL for my mum. She put it into drawdown, took out the tax free bit and as long as no income is drawn from the rest you can still pay in. It comes up as two pots on HL - one is called sipp, the other drawdown

[Hancock]

On 17/10/2021 at 13:26, Hancock said:

No matter what a person does, if a company wants them to stay overnight then they pay, it most certainly doesn't come out of the workers wages. Fact i'm travelling for 6 hours on my own time pisses me off!

I've just arrived at the hotel and the fuckers aren't paying for my evening meal after all. They will be making 1000s from my duration here, yet they're wanting to save a small sum on the workers food!

First time in 20 odd years of working away this has happened, nothing like pissing off the manual labour before works even begun.

But it shows what those who get their hands dirty are willing to put up with ... and the contempt that office types have for manual labour.

[JREWING]

12 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I've just arrived at the hotel and the fuckers aren't paying for my evening meal after all. They will be making 1000s from my duration here, yet they're wanting to save a small sum on the workers evening meal.

First time in 20 odd years of working away this has happened, nothing like pissing off the manual labour before works even begun.

Are they covering the cost of Lube and Condoms? Guessing you can use tax offset regarding lingerie degradation?

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's another tax on the young because it's them who would have got an inheritance tax free. TPTB don't want them inheriting enough to pay their mortgages off early, they want them working and paying tax until they drop.

Exactly that.The people who worked and have houses to pass on tend to have kids who work as well.The governments no1 priority is keep them working to pay for the freeloaders.HTB is part of that trap as well as is pushing into Uni etc.

The biggest gainers from HPI are boomers children who should also own outright when they inherit.This green agenda smells like its designed to keep people working as well,cant afford cheap cars etc.