Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I know its obvious but theyd do better forcing 95% of working age people to work rather than pissing around and putting 1 years on UK SRA.

Baby boys born in the UK in 2018 can expect to live on average to age 87.6 years and girls to age 90.2 years, taking into account projected changes in mortality patterns over their lifetime.

In 25 years, cohort life expectancy at birth in the UK is projected to increase by 2.8 years to reach 90.4 years for boys and by 2.4 years to 92.6 years for girls born in 2043.

UK problems isnt people retiring early; its ~30-50% of working age adults not fucking working.

 

Yep and the government dont want to deal with it so instead hammer those who do work.Its one of the reasons people are dropping out etc.Everything is falling apart because so much is wasted on welfare,councils and the NHS.There are more police retired in my close on full pensions at 50 than on duty in my town.In my close.My birth town is now under siege from a group of young teens,stoning cars,women with prams,pensioners walking the dog etc every night in the same spot.The police do nothing.Iv spent the last few weeks getting the names and addresses of their fathers from some of my old contacts just in case my dad gets hit,anything.If he does a couple of very good friends of mine from the past will be coming over from Boro,and il be a grand lighter.

Losing our mass employment industry at the same time as pushing up welfare hugely has been a disaster for this country.The budget will be interesting given the structural deficit and QE running out.

 

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep and the government dont want to deal with it so instead hammer those who do work.Its one of the reasons people are dropping out etc.Everything is falling apart because so much is wasted on welfare,

 

OK earlier today i heard the best welfare scam there is.

Bloke ive been speaking to lives on a boat, with moorings close to where he is costing up to £20,000 a year.

Benefit claimant buys £200,000 boat to live on and stops working ... then housing benefit has to pay the boat moorings as its deemed rent on their address .... something akin to annual fees on a flat which HB also pays!

People paying boat moorings out of their wages are not happy .... but that doesn't matter as benefit claimant and rentier who owns the moorings are overjoyed!

 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The UK’s plebs money is only tied up in two areas. Owned outright property and pensions.

All the BTL brigade and the younger generation have is debt. This can easily be called in by the banks, when IR rise, people can no longer afford costs of living through inflation and assets are seized. This is great for the government as it means they’ll be in servitude forever more. (Almost like the stamp duty holiday was intended frothing the housing market into the stratosphere knowing what was coming later down the line)

With the locked up boomer cash, the government will ‘incentivise’ releasing this however possible. Having one/two pensioners rattling around in a 4 bed house is not what they want. Tax, tax, tax. Force the boomers out of their old, carbon pumping, planet killing dwellings with taxes (which will probably replace council tax).

Next comes pensions, remove the £40k tax relief down to minimum, reduce maximum lifetime limit, remove the tax free lump sum on access, and raise taxes on drawdowns or some kind of means tested method.

In regards to the public sector pensions, it’s far more simple. Most public sector pensions now are linked to state pension age (Alpha scheme etc). Raise state pension age to 70+ and beyond, increase contribution %, so that most opt out as they can’t afford the deductions. Make the carrot impossible to reach in other words.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/public-sector-pension-liabilities-bigger-than-national-debt-vwb9rj6xh

Now all this won’t be vote winning stuff, but they’re past the point of caring about such triviality like that. Dictatorial government powers are now in vogue, they can do whatever the fuck they like.

Alternatively they just can go full on fast forward into crashing the economy through the floor, to get it all out of the way. We can then all look forward to our dystopian 1984 UBI utopia.

You say wealth taxes wouldn't be a vote winner... But I do wonder if certain wealth taxes could, rather easily, be 'politically sold' as a vote winner? How about the ostensibly very difficult introduction of property taxes on owners main house gains (many countries already do this; maybe a charge secured on the property, to be paid after death), but in return the government could, say, give you private medical insurance vouchers/social care top up? Horrible idea I know. But a politically convenient way perhaps to begin introducing private medicine to the masses, plus tax hypothecation has already started with the latest NI increase supposedly going into social care in 3 years time.... 'Nudging' people is what it's about and in times of covid/climate crises much more easy to do, especially along with the project 'fear' element that many in society it appears have already embraced, and fully backed up it seems by the medical fraternity and other professional hierarchies.

[Inigo]

I spoke to a supplier this morning who said that they are struggling to get a certain type of steel.  Current estimated delivery is December 2022.  If that becomes more widespread I can see it having a knock-on effect on many industries.

[Hancock]

Ominous.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/downing-street-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-21914040#source=breaking-news

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I expect they will crash the markets (housing, fiat, stocks, crypto, etc) at times that suit them. 

So the answer is for the fine Dosbods mindset to be one step ahead of the general market and `surf` its wave rather than its wake.

[Lightscribe]

5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ominous.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/downing-street-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-21914040#source=breaking-news

Plan B was always really just Plan A.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/proposal-for-mandatory-covid-certification-in-a-plan-b-scenario/proposal-for-mandatory-covid-certification-in-a-plan-b-scenario

[MrXxxx]

44 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I know its obvious but theyd do better forcing 95% of working age people to work rather than pissing around and putting 1 years on UK SRA.

Baby boys born in the UK in 2018 can expect to live on average to age 87.6 years and girls to age 90.2 years, taking into account projected changes in mortality patterns over their lifetime.

In 25 years, cohort life expectancy at birth in the UK is projected to increase by 2.8 years to reach 90.4 years for boys and by 2.4 years to 92.6 years for girls born in 2043.

UK problems isnt people retiring early; its ~30-50% of working age adults not fucking working.

 

Agree, all benefits have got to be contributions based, and if you haven't made enough contributions and/or `used up` your previous contributions you don't get...what other area of economics can you get something for no outlay?

...but what about those that have run out and/or can't due to disability?...family or well meaning friends can share some of their earnt credits...soon sort out the `Doogooders` when the have to support their morality out of their own pockets rather than relying on others `charity`/taxes.

[MrXxxx]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep and the government dont want to deal with it so instead hammer those who do work.Its one of the reasons people are dropping out etc.Everything is falling apart because so much is wasted on welfare,councils and the NHS.There are more police retired in my close on full pensions at 50 than on duty in my town.In my close.My birth town is now under siege from a group of young teens,stoning cars,women with prams,pensioners walking the dog etc every night in the same spot.The police do nothing.Iv spent the last few weeks getting the names and addresses of their fathers from some of my old contacts just in case my dad gets hit,anything.If he does a couple of very good friends of mine from the past will be coming over from Boro,and il be a grand lighter.

Losing our mass employment industry at the same time as pushing up welfare hugely has been a disaster for this country.The budget will be interesting given the structural deficit and QE running out.

 

You make it sound so appealing, hence why I am looking at relocating overseas.

[Chewing Grass]

16 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ominous.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/downing-street-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-21914040#source=breaking-news

An artificial problem created by dodgy statistics as a result of 28-days later "On Tuesday, the Government said a further 223 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 - bringing the UK total to 138,852. "

[HousePriceMania]

Is it time to sell yet ?

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

I wasn't even factoring in Covid, what a great excuse for not raise IRs ( or putting them -ve ).

Covid is the largest Macro event of our lifetimes and there's a lot of smarter & well connected people than me that seriously think it was timed to keep the banking system going for another few months as seen by all the stealth bailouts and money printing since under the guise of getting us through 'a once in a century pandemic'

[HousePriceMania]

Just how do the Motley-fool crew do this...

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Covid is the largest Macro event of our lifetimes and there's a lot of smarter & well connected people than me that seriously think it was timed to keep the banking system going for another few months as seen by all the stealth bailouts and money printing since under the guise of getting us through 'a once in a century pandemic'

The timing was so convenient it is hard to believe it was an accident.

UK house prices were literally about to go YoY -ve, now up 15%.

 

[DurhamBorn]

54 minutes ago, Inigo said:

I spoke to a supplier this morning who said that they are struggling to get a certain type of steel.  Current estimated delivery is December 2022.  If that becomes more widespread I can see it having a knock-on effect on many industries.

Iv just had another job offer,the first this week,usually its every day.This one was for a new bio plant over on Teesside,i think heat from waste.The guy said they cant get anyone with experience and they were close to having to run the plant on Care and Maintenance.I told him the wage would have to at least double even to consider it,and the level was more suited to a school leaver starting out,not tempting to anyone experienced.They know this of course,but they simply cant accept the ground has moved under their feet and wages need to rise by huge amounts if they want anyone decent.Some will have to go under so others can hugely increase prices and wages.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

99% certain on that.It will be hydrogen.BP will build a massive plant on Teesside and they will use gas and carbon capture for it,blue hydrogen.Green will come later,government knows this like you say,hence why such a small amount of money for heat pumps.Cars might go the same way yet.

 

The other thing that's really stuck out for me in recent days is neutral commentators saying the government 'green plan' (what ever it's called) is actually so much better by far than any other nation!! Proves to me how totally uncommitted the West is, never mind the Eastern nations, to the so called 'climate emergency'.                                                      I think the policy changes implemented so far have been mostly about energy security, and weening ourselves off unstable ME oil. Oh and some environmentalism, etc which is a good thing. The unknown lurking element is nuclear.                                                                                                                                                    However, the thing is I'm big into the oil stocks but these will be hurt by nuclear. If a big move toward nuclear is to happen I'd guess it should begin soon given the 5-10 year timescales involved. I wonder - is there any scenario whereby big oil takes up the 'nuclear cause' - after all big oil is already heavily into renewables? I know sounds counterintuitive - but could oil and uranium mix? I believe @DurhamBorn does not think it can happen, and that nuclear is a real threat to oil, but could these threats change/diminish? Or Is it simply too costly for oil to buy/invest into nuclear? Sure, their oil reserves might take a hit in terms of asset values, but if the oil companies want to become dominant integrated 'energy' producing companies for say the next 100 years, then isn't it something they 'must' do?

[Chewing Grass]

Follow the energy, the cheapest.

 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Ominous.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/downing-street-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-21914040#source=breaking-news

Foregone conclusion when Plan A and B were announced...and it will be `our` fault as not enough came forward for their booster and/or didn't take the responsibility `they` offered seriously enough.

[Transistor Man]

12 minutes ago, JMD said:

                                                                                                                                          However, the thing is I'm big into the oil stocks but these will be hurt by nuclear. If a big move toward nuclear is to happen I'd guess it should begin soon given the 5-10 year timescales involved. I wonder - is there any scenario whereby big oil takes up the 'nuclear cause' - after all big oil is already heavily into renewables? I heir oil reserves might take a hit in terms of asset values, but if the oil companies want to become dominant integrated 'energy' producing companies for say the next 100 years, then isn't it something they 'must' do?

The first thing I’d say is: it’ll take a lot longer than 5-10 years to get new nuclear on the grid here in the UK. (HPC being the exception, perhaps). They will then first have to replace our ageing AGR fleet, before they add anything to the uk generation mix.

Second thing. 13 or so years ago, there was a push for the nuclear industry and petrochemical industry to collaborate more on cogeneration projects, in Europe and the US.

The US project was called NGNP, and Chevron and ConocoPhillips were signed up.

Fracking and the natural gas boom made most of the proposed projects look ridiculous, given the complexity of running a nuclear reactor on a chemical site. 

I would guess the US will dust off the project soon. 

 

 

[Loki]

Don't forget oil and gas are used for so much more than energy. 

[jamtomorrow]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some will have to go under so others can hugely increase prices and wages.

Which could/should have happened post-2008, but apparently we're not allowed to have a business cycle any more and so we've had 13 years of forebearance economics instead.

And yet here we are, about to pay the piper anyway.

[sancho panza]

On 18/10/2021 at 17:29, Cattle Prod said:

Well I am just shocked, I tell you...

I think stocks and futures need a pullback here, but this thesis is finally starting to play out in public. Burgan is the second biggest oil field in the world, by quite a margin. It had about twice the reserves of the entire North Sea (UK and Norway) in it - these supergiants will never be found again. It was found 80 years ago because you couldn't really miss it!

Edit:

I have to credit the Kuwait Oil Co and/or Amena for using that word "sustainable" again. I wonder are OPEC (she is an OPEC insider) warming us all up for the reality...

Yeah it is starting to filter through.You've been talking since arrival about the spare capacity not being quite what it seems and I've noted of late,that the MSM have dispensed with the 10mbpd figure and are talking about 3mbpd.

All in all,it even seems as if the penny is dropping with govts in hock to the extinction crowd,on whom it's beginning to dawn that millions of people pissed off with cold showers and empty supermarket shelves protesting, will dwarf a few middle class types blocking the M25.

I think the reality is that some govts are going to get caught short in the next 6-12 months if we get a pre recession spike in fossil fuel prices

On 18/10/2021 at 20:43, Democorruptcy said:

Hussman's latest. He seems a bit less Big Kahuna than usual.

 

I love Hussman but he been wrong for a long time.One of the msot rational market commentators out there and yet look at hi smarket record.?

He joins a list of greats such as Tony Dye,Terry Smith etc.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[JMD]

10 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

The first thing I’d say is: it’ll take a lot longer than 5-10 years to get new nuclear on the grid here in the UK. (HPC being the exception, perhaps). They will then first have to replace our ageing AGR fleet, before they add anything to the uk generation mix.

Second thing. 13 or so years ago, there was a push for the nuclear industry and petrochemical industry to collaborate more on cogeneration projects, in Europe and the US.

The US project was called NGNP, and Chevron and ConocoPhillips were signed up.

Fracking and the natural gas boom made most of the proposed projects look ridiculous, given the complexity of running a nuclear reactor on a chemical site. 

I would guess the US will dust off the project soon. 

 

 

Thanks TransistorMan, that US co-project between nuclear and oil sounds interesting.                                                                    In terms of time to build, I accept that i don't know nearly enough about the sector, but France built over 50 reactors between 1975-1990. And that if anything was a more ambitious project i think? If the UK used it's existing decommissioned nuclear sites/infrastructure plus those new mini reactors from Rolls Royce, etc, I'd have thought 10 years was possible. I know regulations etc might inevitably slow things but talking just from a technical perspective I mean, especially if there was an obvious danger blowing I from the East, in terms of energy competition with China.

[JMD]

27 minutes ago, Loki said:

Don't forget oil and gas are used for so much more than energy. 

Exactly, that's why many call for nuclear to do the 'energy' heavy lifting bit so plastics, etc can continue to be made easily and cheaply from the remaining oil reserves, and securing these for say the next 100 years.