Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

48 minutes ago, CVG said:

Exactly half the old interim in 2020, so perhaps the final in Sept will be 5.39?

7.7p for the year yes.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

The Mighty Panther (Pantherus Nonminus) has just gone critically endangered.  For just £100 a month you can help keep the Directors living in the manner to which they are accustomed.

The elite banking families obviously know that the Panther is a threat to the stability of the financial system when silver finally runs which is inevitable.

They’ve obviously sabotaged the mines and productivity now and get the weak hands to sell starving it of capital. JP Morgan can then swoop in to use all its lovely silver to save paper ETFs for market manipulation.

Their evil plan won’t work. Diamond hands. 💎 🙌 🐆

[headrow]

33 minutes ago, Harley said:

At least nice to hear I'm not alone, although no New River for me.  Probably about the same amount too.  No tax loss selling for me though as they're all in an ISA.  VOD is still up as it's a long term hold and is a div player.  I could have covered the losses of them all by trading the bounces but I had other things to do.  I just leave them there as a reminder that a good story isn't enough!

My portfolio sits at a record high , i retired when i was 49 , 4 years ago and i've got 125k more now than i had then. I've cut my discretional spending down as far as it will go and have reinvested  my dividends on any market weakness. I own well over 100 different shares and the loss of dividend income when covid first struck was brutal. I kept on buying though and really reduced my average prices across the board. My share account actually still managed to finance the 20k for my ISA but only just , this year it achieved that by October.

Vodafone is a huge disappointment but i'm holding on fully expecting a massive cut to the dividend.

Wynnstay Group which somebody recommended on here has been a standout performer for me.

[DurhamBorn]

28 minutes ago, Harley said:

Up 5.45% atm!  With VIV and TIMB up big yesterday, start of a run?  I'm watching telcos hoping for better technicals.  Mine could be an interesting review next week.

PS:  DYOR, not trading advice, discussion only, etc but IMO a fake buy on the daily last month, weekly now strengthening but needs more time, monthly still looking weak.  Bounced off the Jan21 high on the weekly which is good.  I might be long term fully allocated but generally I now buy my first ladder on a weekly buy confirmed by a daily buy and another on a follow through monthly buy.  I'm more interested in the other telcos though and am behind DB as I'm waiting for more technical strength (plus adversion to debt).  It'll be interesting to see how wrong I am, again!  Quite possible as things technical are very odd and more unpredictable than usual atm.

I look at the whole sector of the big companies as one in telcos.Iv got equal weight in VOD,BT,TEF,Orange then my next tier (20% to 40% capital compared to big holdings) in TEF Germany TEF Brasil,TIMB,Turkcell etc then small opening positions in Verizon,T etc.

My aim on them including divs is 65% return over the cycle,roughly 10 years,but divs are crucial for the sector.Some will turn to divi increases before others.BT for instance should increase from here.

Notice in TEFs results today their debt now averages 13 years at 3ish% from 9 years.

Balance sheets could contain bombs,they need to de-leverage,no doubt about that,but by mid cycle i expect them to be dividend machines.BT for instance might be on a 2029 free cash multiple of 3.7 here.

I think the sector will merge things like towers so they can increase prices for them all that way.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, headrow said:

My portfolio sits at a record high , i retired when i was 49 , 4 years ago and i've got 125k more now than i had then. I've cut my discretional spending down as far as it will go and have reinvested  my dividends on any market weakness. I own well over 100 different shares and the loss of dividend income when covid first struck was brutal. I kept on buying though and really reduced my average prices across the board. My share account actually still managed to finance the 20k for my ISA but only just , this year it achieved that by October.

Vodafone is a huge disappointment but i'm holding on fully expecting a massive cut to the dividend.

Wynnstay Group which somebody recommended on here has been a standout performer for me.

Free cash increases need to come through for VOD now or the CEO is toast.The Liberty deal put too much debt on them for so far, little gain.They should be able to de-leverage euro 2.5bill a year,but they need to.CEO seems to think de-leveraging simple means increasing EBITDA,but they need outright de-leverage.Im not concerned over telcos funding coupons on debt,but i am concerned when they have that much a derivative bomb could go off and counterparties fail.

 

 

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, BWW said:

Well there will be a GE within 3 years and seems there's a huge opportunity for a new party given the awfulness of SirK+co.

Looks like it should be called the freedom party and can simply abolish any undemocratic nonsense Boris has imposed. But what public figure could lead such a party?

My read says we'll have a GE sooner than 3 years.Possibly next year,berfore the economic fundamentals implode.The reason we're not in lockdown at the minute is that the tax base is suffering and the prognosis isn't good further out when any sort of bank deleveraging occurs or as rates rise to fight inflation.

The worst of all worlds for Boris and Sunak is that IR's are forced up at the same time the banks deleverage and the price of commodities moves north.Imagine the hit on consumer spending if house prices are deflating as the cost of heating them trebles.

Your average basement dweller knows how screwed we are,if my dear old Mum's(75) friends are anything to go by,the wider public is beginning to work it out with the bottom income deciles first(food and fuel rises hurt msot when you're not well off).

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Free cash increases need to come through for VOD now or the CEO is toast.The Liberty deal put too much debt on them for so far, little gain.They should be able to de-leverage euro 2.5bill a year,but they need to.CEO seems to think de-leveraging simple means increasing EBITDA,but they need outright de-leverage.Im not concerned over telcos funding coupons on debt,but i am concerned when they have that much a derivative bomb could go off and counterparties fail.

It's interesting looking at the debts of these companies.The key thing for me is whether they're generating enough FCF to not need to issue new debt if needed a la Tesla.It's one thing to raid bond markets for 20 year 3% money it's another to be issuing 5 and 10 year at 10% +

There are some will fail,but the winners will be multibaggers

[sancho panza]

People have stopped mentioning the energy providers getting bumped......

Interesting as well that Sauid is already running the pumps faster than 2019..........where's the rest of the supply gone if demand is still sub 100mbpd?

Does this mean the US shale situation is actually worse than we realsie?

 

 

[Bricormortis]

Greg Manarino points out something quite astute. The Fed have agreed to taper zilch.

They have anounced a lower minimum target of asset purchases per month. There is no cap, no top.

Not a taper.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Greg Manarino points out something quite astute. The Fed have agreed to taper zilch.

They have anounced a lower minimum target of asset purchases per month. There is no cap, no top.

Not a taper.

It must be great to be able to play horseshit word games like that 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

The Culture War is bread and circuses for the politically aware, designed to keep distracted those who would otherwise be dangerous to the interests of the establishment factions that fan its flames.

The never-ending "battles" are a feature, not a bug. You will be presented with "battle" after "battle" until you realise the only winning move is not to fight.

Jamtomorrow, I broadly agree with your analysis, however and perhaps i am misreading you, but your conclusion seems to imply an inevitable road to serfdom? I would disagree with that as my working model is Howe's Forth Turning, with the culture wars being a kinda low-level civil war degeneration, and so in historical terms all the noisy argument is rather mild and inane really. Whether or not our childish sociatal scraps are a feature or a bug - I think the crux of it is that these things will be resolved/melt away with the arrival of strong political leadership, currently lacking of course, but when the main event crisis does hit, I think it inevitable(?!) that 'a wo/man with a plan' will step forward from stage 'left or right'! Perhaps In terms of what you posted, I am merely attempting 'to make a distinction without a difference', but it's just that for me cycle theory (like Howe's) offers a macro pathway with some hope attached... though to keep sane in these crazy times, I suppose we all need our myths to live by!

[Boon]

Interest rates unchanged.

Cunts, seriously hope the market forces them into a corner.

[Hancock]

property bubble must be protected at all costs.

[kibuc]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

property bubble must be protected at all costs.

The later they leave it, the harder they'll have to chase the market. I don't mind waiting a bit longer for the fireworks.

[Nomad]

I think they are only delaying the inenvitable rise, and surely the longer they leave it the worse it will get? I don't understand how they could not raise interest rates considering inflation is considerably higher than the 2% target?

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I think they are only delaying the inenvitable rise, and surely the longer they leave it the worse it will get? I don't understand how they could not raise interest rates considering inflation is considerably higher than the 2% target?

I am genuinely shocked they haven't raised, especially considering how well telegraphed it had been and the background of globally co-ordinated tightening. What internal data could the BoE be reacting to?

[Hancock]

13 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I think they are only delaying the inenvitable rise, and surely the longer they leave it the worse it will get? I don't understand how they could not raise interest rates considering inflation is considerably higher than the 2% target?

Its a joke isnt it.

They ought to create an algorithm to make the decision, which would save 10s of millions on wages and pensions.

[HousePriceMania]

If you never say that coming you've not been watching

These people will not raise IRs.

 

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Its a joke isnt it.

 

Are you laughing  ?

[Hancock]

20 minutes ago, kibuc said:

The later they leave it, the harder they'll have to chase the market. I don't mind waiting a bit longer for the fireworks.

Dunno, the longer they leave it the lower the rigged inflation numbers will get ... giving them an excuse not to raise.

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

If you never say that coming you've not been watching

These people will not raise IRs.

 

Are you laughing  ?

They are.

[Kilham]

'If they raise rates, we're toast. If they don't raise rates, it's because we're already toast'

[Hancock]

33 minutes ago, Kilham said:

'If they raise rates, we're toast. If they don't raise rates, it's because we're already toast'

Its more a case that "they" get a little bit poorer if they raise interest rates .... as the working class pleb is already toast!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

26 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I think they are only delaying the inenvitable rise, and surely the longer they leave it the worse it will get? I don't understand how they could not raise interest rates considering inflation is considerably higher than the 2% target?

They won't raise in December. Puts it back to February by my reckoning. Unless inflation starts troubling 6%, when they might feel the need to act.

Quite a lot of people get (or don't get) annual wage rises in Jan, perhaps they want to see those?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Lets see what effect the huge 5% drop in human Co2 emissions in 2020 had on atmospheric concentrations. 

 

Fuck all and plenty of it. 

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad. 

 

As DB as often said, it doesnt really matter what we think ought to be, we have to invest in what we think WILL be. But i have an awful feeling that, when the dust settles, we'll be the wealthiest working class men in a steaming dung heap. 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Seems since 1997 (Brexit aside) they have become irrelevant, have to remember the Tories supported all Labours spending and bailout ... and since they've been in charge have then gone on to copy all Labours manifestos pledges on spending ... apart from since 2019 where they've obviously spent hundreds of billions more than Corbyn could have ever dreamed.

I agree, butI think the 'rot' is wider and deeper than just the political arena. I think most institutions are now packed with technocrats, incapable or scared of making effective decisions. However, perhaps I am being too harsh on the individuals involved, it could be that ever bigger government, centralised systems, technology, etc, inevitably leads to an atrophy of the individual?                                                                                                                                 The latest (tangential?) example of this I think are the GP's, who if I were being kind, during and post pandemic they seem to have totally lost their medical 'calling'! I'm actually very worried about this, but my take is that they can see their own medical jobs being devalued by tech/Dr Google over the next 20 years and are covertly fighting to retain their position and privilege. Don't get me wrong I'm all in favour of more health care, however tech is now 'moving in' fast on middle-class professions such as solicitors and doctors and journalism. It will be interesting to see how these groups react politically... though rather depressingly i note that these professions have already appeared to have 'fully embraced the pandemic story'?

[Axeman123]

Pound dropping sharply on the news, down 1.1% on the day. Fingers crossed for a currency crisis to keep them honest.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Pound dropping sharply on the news, down 1.1% on the day. Fingers crossed for a currency crisis to keep them honest.

Gold spiked at the time of the announcement.