Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Kilham]

'If they raise rates, we're toast. If they don't raise rates, it's because we're already toast'

[Hancock]

33 minutes ago, Kilham said:

'If they raise rates, we're toast. If they don't raise rates, it's because we're already toast'

Its more a case that "they" get a little bit poorer if they raise interest rates .... as the working class pleb is already toast!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

26 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I think they are only delaying the inenvitable rise, and surely the longer they leave it the worse it will get? I don't understand how they could not raise interest rates considering inflation is considerably higher than the 2% target?

They won't raise in December. Puts it back to February by my reckoning. Unless inflation starts troubling 6%, when they might feel the need to act.

Quite a lot of people get (or don't get) annual wage rises in Jan, perhaps they want to see those?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Lets see what effect the huge 5% drop in human Co2 emissions in 2020 had on atmospheric concentrations. 

 

Fuck all and plenty of it. 

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad. 

 

As DB as often said, it doesnt really matter what we think ought to be, we have to invest in what we think WILL be. But i have an awful feeling that, when the dust settles, we'll be the wealthiest working class men in a steaming dung heap. 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Seems since 1997 (Brexit aside) they have become irrelevant, have to remember the Tories supported all Labours spending and bailout ... and since they've been in charge have then gone on to copy all Labours manifestos pledges on spending ... apart from since 2019 where they've obviously spent hundreds of billions more than Corbyn could have ever dreamed.

I agree, butI think the 'rot' is wider and deeper than just the political arena. I think most institutions are now packed with technocrats, incapable or scared of making effective decisions. However, perhaps I am being too harsh on the individuals involved, it could be that ever bigger government, centralised systems, technology, etc, inevitably leads to an atrophy of the individual?                                                                                                                                 The latest (tangential?) example of this I think are the GP's, who if I were being kind, during and post pandemic they seem to have totally lost their medical 'calling'! I'm actually very worried about this, but my take is that they can see their own medical jobs being devalued by tech/Dr Google over the next 20 years and are covertly fighting to retain their position and privilege. Don't get me wrong I'm all in favour of more health care, however tech is now 'moving in' fast on middle-class professions such as solicitors and doctors and journalism. It will be interesting to see how these groups react politically... though rather depressingly i note that these professions have already appeared to have 'fully embraced the pandemic story'?

[Axeman123]

Pound dropping sharply on the news, down 1.1% on the day. Fingers crossed for a currency crisis to keep them honest.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Pound dropping sharply on the news, down 1.1% on the day. Fingers crossed for a currency crisis to keep them honest.

Gold spiked at the time of the announcement.

 

[HousePriceMania]

That it, fucking thieving bastards were predictable as ever.

 

I've started moving money out of Sterling.  I have an £80,000 bond coming in a week, it'll be going the same way.

f**k this for a game of soldiers.

 

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Pound dropping sharply on the news, down 1.1% on the day. Fingers crossed for a currency crisis to keep them honest.

Join me in moving your money out of sterling.

[HousePriceMania]

I said a few months ago based on property lion we should short rightmove.

 

How do I go about shorting stocks ?  I have an interactive Brokers account 

[wherebee]

You will remember I've been tracking Moderna as the canary for the whole pandemic shebang and BK collapse.  Look at the pre-market drop.  Almost 15%.

the story is 'disappointing earnings'.  But.....

 

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Jamtomorrow, I broadly agree with your analysis, however and perhaps i am misreading you, but your conclusion seems to imply an inevitable road to serfdom?

Only if you become a good soldier on one side or the other in the Culture War - that cognitive serfdom *is* the road to real serfdom.

The trick is to always and constantly be trying to step outside of being forced to play other people's games and fight other people's wars. And the trick with *that* is to spot those sly framings in the first place.

What you think you become etc

[Harley]

3 hours ago, headrow said:

My portfolio sits at a record high , i retired when i was 49 , 4 years ago and i've got 125k more now than i had then. I've cut my discretional spending down as far as it will go and have reinvested  my dividends on any market weakness. I own well over 100 different shares and the loss of dividend income when covid first struck was brutal. I kept on buying though and really reduced my average prices across the board. My share account actually still managed to finance the 20k for my ISA but only just , this year it achieved that by October.

Vodafone is a huge disappointment but i'm holding on fully expecting a massive cut to the dividend.

Wynnstay Group which somebody recommended on here has been a standout performer for me.

That sounds really good to me (unless you've got a £10m portfolio!) and congratulations to all who've done well.  Please share your lessons.

I haven't looked and it would be a pain to work out but I doubt mine has gone up much through just gains. I partially loaded up before covid, took a hit, and didn't get in too much to play the fall near the very bottom as I was busy prepping, etc.  Shows how you need to be consistent in your application.  Or lucky.

I've probably managed to claw back most equity losses overall with successes in several holdings, using a more thorough approach but the markets are across the board overvalued so it's hard work looking to apply cash.  With hindsight I should have invested more when I had the chance but it was a new approach.  I have had some stunning successes with it though, it's just the past is a drag.

My PM holdings, etc seem to have failed as a portfolio hedge as part of the balanced portfolio but then this portfolio is not about gains so much as preservation so maybe I should accept the implications of my chosen model.  A higher equity focus may have been good recently but who knows longer term.  Maybe it's just doing what it says so on the tin.

Equity wise, I do restrict myself to div stocks with fair fundamentals and look for technical entries rather than try and ride those already well on the rise.  That gives me a smaller pool.  It does work though, just the number of opportunities is low.  I would trade low div stocks too if I had the time but I currently don't.

I've also starting selling down stock holdings I like but showing weakness to buy back later.  That too has worked well, as long as I take account of the ex div dates!

So I do initially get mildly triggered by the experiences of others but not after I've thought it through.  More I have faith in what I'm doing (and I'm doing a lot more critical stuff as well as there's a bigger game in play) but am keen to learn and improve.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

My read says we'll have a GE sooner than 3 years.Possibly next year,berfore the economic fundamentals implode.

IMHO a change of leader is a high probability event.

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

IMHO a change of leader is a high probability event.

Ex-GS banker Rishi Sunak's billionaire family and powerful  banker chums can buy a lot of influence.

We really have a problem.

I think what you say is  nailed on.  Boris will be made fall on his sword shortly.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Nomad said:

I think they are only delaying the inenvitable rise, and surely the longer they leave it the worse it will get? I don't understand how they could not raise interest rates considering inflation is considerably higher than the 2% target?

Let's see how sterling performs:  higher rates or higher imported inflation.  Maybe their covid experience has given them strength to fight the backlash against very high inflation.  They're apparently dancing for joy in Whitehall at how well their behavioural, etc techniques have worked.  And they need lots of inflation, and politically the sooner the better, if they could pull that off, something they would not have considered before covid.

[Axeman123]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

IMHO a change of leader is a high probability event.

Boris' embrace of net zero sounds like he is lining up his next gig. The jaunty dismissal of a referendum on it sounded to me like a man who had faced his last election. Saw a story on DM online recently about him saying something odd about animals getting to eat people for a change to a group of kids at some public appearance, seemed like a signal he was being diminished ready to be replaced. Last night's drama about keeping his MP in parliament after shocking graft was very odd too. Massive political capital expended for no clear benefit, and a terrible look to boot. Now they have backed down, and unfired one of the rebel MPs. Was a byelection loss intended as a trigger for replacing BJ? If so the rebellion and humiliating climbdown haven't done him any favours.

[sancho panza]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

IMHO a change of leader is a high probability event.

Think your spot on there Harley>Johnson's really messed the UK up.There's only so long you can cover up the mess at Dover,the fiscal issues,the energy shortfall,inflation,housing market,bennies bill etc etc...

[Harley]

Early next year.

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Early next year.

I 'm hearing usually relaible whispers that the knives are really out for Boris.He is a mess.Luckily for him, Starmer is a non event.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I 'm hearing usually relaible whispers that the knives are really out for Boris.He is a mess.Luckily for him, Starmer is a non event.

Yep.  It's a poorly kept secret.  Can't be considering the required prep.  He could have been great.  Alas, not even close.  Those who warned at the time were right but their candidates were dire.

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I 'm hearing usually relaible whispers that the knives are really out for Boris.He is a mess.Luckily for him, Starmer is a non event.

I used to have some tory party member contacts and the word on the street was the Cameron was expected to lose the 2015 (ish) election and was happy to do so and walk away to the promised land of free cash for services rendered.

I'd imagine Boris feels the same.  He's made his bit of history, there is nothing but shit in the pipeline, best engineer an out and let that puppet Brown Sunak  take the fall. 

[HousePriceMania]

Anyway, I've sorted out my ability to short shares.

Im going to stick my neck out and short Tesla and rightmove tomorrow when my margin account has been approved.

This insanity is going to end soon.

[feed]

far from a balanced market, but that also points to no one is looking at it yet. 

[Harley]

I maintain a large currencies watchlist.  Just looked and everything is green against sterling.  From the Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit.  Everything.  And some, in forex terms, by a lot.

PS:  Many were approaching a buy at the end of last month but that needs to work through into the weeklies.  Some have already run on the weeklies.  I'm not going to bother looking for weakness!

PPS:  I got this feeling some screen time will be time well spent.  Forex is the Daddy from which it all flows.  You can't feck forex!

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Pound dropping sharply on the news, down 1.1% on the day. Fingers crossed for a currency crisis to keep them honest.

down 1.2% now, gold knocking on the door of 1800USD