Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

49 minutes ago, wherebee said:

You will remember I've been tracking Moderna as the canary for the whole pandemic shebang and BK collapse.  Look at the pre-market drop.  Almost 15%.

the story is 'disappointing earnings'.  But.....

 

Is the drop because of todays news of the new Covid pill? Apparently it's relatively expensive, not being given away this time, so real profits to be had by its manufacturer.

[Bricormortis]

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

I maintain a large currencies watchlist.  Just looked and everything is green against sterling.  From the Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit.  Everything.

The dollar dxy on a tear, next stop 96 ?

[Harley]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

down 1.2% now, gold knocking on the door of 1800USD

A really messy technical chart in sterling.  In USD IMO its completing the down handle on the cup and handle before the final move up.  May blip from here but hasn't yet cleared house on the monthly, but then if something goes bang....

PS:  Maybe my balanced portfolio will come good after all!

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

down 1.2% now, gold knocking on the door of 1800USD

-1.3%

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

The dollar dxy on a tear, next stop 96 ?

I kept quiet given the view of a fall but saw strength for some time.  Still room to run but the window is closing unless something goes bang.

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, feed said:

far from a balanced market, but that also points to no one is looking at it yet. 

It's a one party state here in GB Land and as such it's who's the leader that matters.  Ask China!

[CVG]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

That it, fucking thieving bastards were predictable as ever.

 

I've started moving money out of Sterling.  I have an £80,000 bond coming in a week, it'll be going the same way.

f**k this for a game of soldiers.

 

Join me in moving your money out of sterling.

What platform did you use in the end?

[feed]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's a one party state here in GB Land and as such it's who's the leader that matters.  Ask China!

There is of course the usual partisanship with tribal voting, but for the party faithful, Boris is just fine.  

Central office is getting away with all kinds shenanigans, why change that.  They'll drop him as soon as he's no longer usual, of course.   But i think he's a while to run. 

 

[HousePriceMania]

33 minutes ago, Harley said:

I maintain a large currencies watchlist.  Just looked and everything is green against sterling.  From the Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit.  Everything.  And some, in forex terms, by a lot.

PS:  Many were approaching a buy at the end of last month but that needs to work through into the weeklies.  Some have already run on the weeklies.  I'm not going to bother looking for weakness!

PPS:  I got this feeling some screen time will be time well spent.  Forex is the Daddy from which it all flows.  You can't feck forex!

I just think now is the time to get ahead of the crowd, it is always better to panic first.

My wife and I are now 100% behind out worst case scenario plan.

We might see 5% inflation this year but then what:

1) a deflationary crash and more QE/-ve rates with more insane highs and free money for the asset owners, 

2) 10% inflation in 2022 followed by a lot of people panic buying assets ?

Ether way, the time to get ahead is now.

[JMD]

48 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Only if you become a good soldier on one side or the other in the Culture War - that cognitive serfdom *is* the road to real serfdom.

The trick is to always and constantly be trying to step outside of being forced to play other people's games and fight other people's wars. And the trick with *that* is to spot those sly framings in the first place.

What you think you become etc

Well yes I'd agree with that, but I thought i'd said as much in my post? Anyway just to demonstrate how fatuous I think the culture wars are...   Take the current Yorkshire cricket racism claim furere - the MSM laps it up, yet no one is really the wiser as to what actually happened. One part of the story released so far, is that the claimant Rafiq is suffering something like PTSD (well that's my take!!) because he is now triggered by remembering shared conversations he regularly enjoyed having with a close fellow player at the club, however the language and terms both he and that other player regularly enjoyed using, he now finds offensive!!... And of course so called institutional racism has also been claimed - but what's the betting the details there will need someone with twin PhD's in parapsychology and comparative wokism to properly comprehend!

[HousePriceMania]

38 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is the drop because of todays news of the new Covid pill? Apparently it's relatively expensive, not being given away this time, so real profits to be had by its manufacturer.

Ahhh, the covid pill....

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

50 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyway, I've sorted out my ability to short shares.

Im going to stick my neck out and short Tesla and rightmove tomorrow when my margin account has been approved.

This insanity is going to end soon.

Who are you using for your shorting? And for your foreign currency account?

 

Are you just parking your money in a foreign currency denominated uk bank account? 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Nomad said:

I think they are only delaying the inenvitable rise, and surely the longer they leave it the worse it will get? I don't understand how they could not raise interest rates considering inflation is considerably higher than the 2% target?

They are waiting until inflation transfers enough to government through tax.They arent watching just inflation they are watching the structural deficit i think.They are making the same policy errors as the 70s,fearing unemployment and unrest more than inflation.

 

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Who are you using for your shorting? And for your foreign currency account?

 

Are you just parking your money in a foreign currency denominated uk bank account? 

A Forex bloke I chat to on twitter pointed me to:

https://www.interactivebrokers.co.uk

You can have a margin account which you can use to become rich...or bankrupt yourself.

Any bet what you can afford to lose, but given what the BoE are about you're going to lose it all anyway.

 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I just think now is the time to get ahead of the crowd, it is always better to panic first.

My wife and I are now 100% behind out worst case scenario plan.

We might see 5% inflation this year but then what:

1) a deflationary crash and more QE/-ve rates with more insane highs and free money for the asset owners, 

2) 10% inflation in 2022 followed by a lot of people panic buying assets ?

Ether way, the time to get ahead is now.

Sorry to have to tell you but you are much closer to panicking last than panicking first.

It's not like the BoE don't have previous. As I've pointed out before we had RPI at 5.7% and CPI at 5.2% in 2011 and the base rate never shifted from 0.5%

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are waiting until inflation transfers enough to government through tax.They arent watching just inflation they are watching the structural deficit i think.They are making the same policy errors as the 70s,fearing unemployment and unrest more than inflation.

 

You're assuming this isn't deliberate ?

These people know exactly what they are doing.

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

Sorry to have to tell you but you are much closer to panicking last than panicking first.

It's not like the BoE don't have previous. As I've pointed out before we had RPI at 5.7% and CPI at 5.2% in 2011 and the base rate never shifted from 0.5%

There are another 60,000,000 people in the UK that have not realized what is happening we are still at the front of the queue.

[Froggy2000]

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/11/04/govt-closes-pension-age-protection-window-without-prior-notice/

Remember the consultation paper that discussed moving the minimum pension age to 57 for SIPPs but grandfathering in old schemes to 55?

That door has now shut.

[kibuc]

3 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/11/04/govt-closes-pension-age-protection-window-without-prior-notice/

Remember the consultation paper that discussed moving the minimum pension age to 57 for SIPPs but grandfathering in old schemes to 55?

That door has now shut.

Are pre-existing SIPPs like the one I have with Fidelity or HL age-protected? It was always my impression that they were not.
If they are, are future contributions (or transfers between them) still possible and also age-protected?

[Hancock]

5 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/11/04/govt-closes-pension-age-protection-window-without-prior-notice/

Remember the consultation paper that discussed moving the minimum pension age to 57 for SIPPs but grandfathering in old schemes to 55?

That door has now shut.

Cuntz

[JMD]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I 'm hearing usually relaible whispers that the knives are really out for Boris.He is a mess.Luckily for him, Starmer is a non event.

But surely it's not a vote winner to replace 'Brexit-Boris' so very early? So why not just let him soak up more and more political flak, it kinda suits him in any case! Personally I don't really see the need with Sir-K of the Knee on the oppossing benches. In time Rishy-Washy Sunak might become a 'good look' for the conservatives to wear come polling day... especially as all other contenders seem to have lost their political mojo, though I do keep my eye on Kwasi Kwarteng.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

-1.3%

GBP now down 1.46% for the day against USD

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Cuntz

"We had to chain the fire exits before we could burn the place down!"

[feed]

Gates channeling DB ?

https://www.teletrader.com/gates-not-all-oil-giants-will-make-the-transition/news/details/56668271?internal=1

Bill Gates doesn't think all of today's oil giants will retain their relevance in the future but believes those that persevere can utilize their skillsets to speed up the transition to clean energy, Axios reported on Thursday.

According to Gates, "a few of the big guys" will make the transition, while some of the companies will "be worth very little" in the next 30 years. He also emphasized that fossil fuel companies can lead said transition by diversifying into renewables, and commercially scaling new technologies.

"I hope a few of the big companies make it. We're certainly open-minded. The whole idea of cutting off investment in the old as a tactic, as opposed to investing in the new, I just don't get that," Gates said.

[Democorruptcy]

24 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/11/04/govt-closes-pension-age-protection-window-without-prior-notice/

Remember the consultation paper that discussed moving the minimum pension age to 57 for SIPPs but grandfathering in old schemes to 55?

That door has now shut.

I wonder if he managed to keep his face straight while he said this?

Quote

Glen said: “Some pension savers could find themselves with poorer outcomes (or even be the victim of a pension scam) if they were rushed by rogue advisors to make a quick transfer in the short time period before the window closed.”

 

[BadAlchemy]

31 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/11/04/govt-closes-pension-age-protection-window-without-prior-notice/

Remember the consultation paper that discussed moving the minimum pension age to 57 for SIPPs but grandfathering in old schemes to 55?

That door has now shut.

Glen said: “Some pension savers could find themselves with poorer outcomes (or even be the victim of a pension scam) if they were rushed by rogue advisors to make a quick transfer in the short time period before the window closed.”

Physician, heal thyself!

[Gin]