Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Did GSK have a vaccine....

No Beechams Pills which cure all known ills.

Treats the Covids https://www.medicines.org.uk/emc/product/3527/smpc

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Now there's a contrarian take 

A contrarian, contrarian...how unique! :-)

[JMD]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

While the data appears to be not clear,the outtake seems pertinent.

Interesting to see they're syaing income inequality wasn't exceptional but the Tsarist regime was oppressive,had unequal land ownership and that it's tax regime was regressive.

We are ticking boxes here with the way our elite is going.Key thing from this paper is that the income inequlaity in Tsarist Russia wasn't that bad but clearly their elite failed to read the future whereas Japan/UK etc broadened suffrage out across society.1918 was universal suffrage in the UK iirc.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/russian-inequality-on-the-eve-of-revolution/A5CED37A899914A15F9CFB1777A441DF

Our findings—which we subject to a variety of robustness exercises—suggest that just prior to the revolutions of the early twentieth century, Russia's income inequality was not exceptional, either in comparison to contemporary societies or when stacked up against estimates for the post-Soviet period. This was despite the extreme suppression of political rights, the inequality of landownership, and the clear regressivity of the imperial fiscal system. We suggest that this “moderate” income inequality was a net result of the tension between Russia's labor scarcity, or land abundance, and its regressive and repressive institutions. At the same time, inequality was higher in the capital city provinces, the Baltics, and the Black Sea region— i.e., some of the more dynamic and urban parts of the empire. As the revolutions of 1905 and 1917 were urban in origin, the geography of Russian inequality would suggest some support for distributional factors as underlying causes.

CONCLUSION

Russia's distribution of incomes thus contrasted sharply with the distribution of political voice on the eve of the 1905 Revolution. Russia's inequality of political voice was extreme: Of the 53 sovereign states in 1904, Russia was one of the bottom four having a Polity rating of zero democracy and complete autocracy.Footnote ⁴⁵

Yet in terms of income inequality, Russia seems to have been relatively egalitarian among data-supplying countries. This income result might be viewed as the net result of two fundamental influences on Russian economic fortunes prior to the Revolutions. The fundamental egalitarian force was geographic: Russia has always stood out as abundant in productive land and staple grains. The land/labor logic that other scholars have used to link the Black Death to the freedom and wellbeing of the English yeoman should theoretically have compressed the income structure—and likely continued to do so, other things equal, even on the eve of Revolution. Contemporary accounts of land “scarcity” were not reflected in the statistical evidence and were almost entirely limited to a declining region to the south of Moscow, where agriculture was simply not as productive as the southern and Ukrainian provinces (Wheatcroft Reference Wheatcroft, Kingston-Mann and Mixter1991). Although the peasantry was not the homogenous group that is often assumed, the predominance of communal property among such a large part of the population likely held down inequality (even if only by providing a security net with which peasants could pursue nonagricultural pursuits).Footnote ⁴⁶

Yet political inequality also dominated the country's pre-Revolutionary history. The demise of serfdom did not necessarily end restrictions on peasant labor mobility, nor did it eliminate the economic and political power of the landed elite in the countryside. The imperial autocracy's dependency on elites for its power continued to be reflected in the property, income, and political inequality among estates and classes. Even if extraordinary political inequality did not manage to create extraordinary income inequality by global standards, it did leave those signs of limited, or even regressive, redistribution we have already noted. Furthermore, income inequality in contemporary Russia likely matches or exceeds the pre-Revolutionary level, and the fiscal structure is perhaps equally skewed towards politically connected elite at the expense of those lower on the income distribution (Gelbach 2008).

 

 

Yes, some countries in particular - Russia, China, and across much of the middle East Islamic countries have - and repeatedly through history - found it very difficult/impossible to change, and all for different reasons (Victor Shvetts wrote a good book about it). Historically this has ended in revolution (Russia), loss of empire (Ottoman), lack of progress (China), or mixture of all three types of disasters for their populations.                                                                                                                                                                                          SP, I guess your post was for debate regarding comparison to today's great economic inequalities, and the dangers that lie theirin? I agree that is a big risk for disorder, breakdown, etc, and It's a very dark subject. But personally I look to America to gauge what the tech giants are up to, as I think it will inform us early on as to what to expect. For example, will Peter Thiel or the Zuckerberg/Musk 'visions' win out? Unfortunately it is the latter who currently have the ear of big government, but things can change, and Thiel and a libertarian blockchain tech-enlightenment might yet stage a come back? Tbc neither vision offers a panacea to the revolutionary monetary shift that lies ahead, but I think blockchain offers a bulwark against a return to feudalism, more social hope, etc, so i massively favor it.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Completely off-topic, but can't help myself.....

Rafiq joined Yorkshire in 2008 and left in 2014.  He was subjected to such abuse during that period that he.... returned to play for Yorkshire in 2016. 

Yes, I apologise for the thread derailment, but I think these small examples (posted in moderation of course) and relating to this countrie's 'social demise', because imho that's what MSM are perpetuating here, where for example your salient facts will never ever be broadcast... Well, i mean damn it, it's just not cricket!! (I'll shut up now)

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, MvR said:

Yes... sorry, I haven't really kept up with my options trading thread.  Sometimes I start things then get distracted with other things and lose momentum.  I'm always happy to talk about options though, so give me a mention and I'll usually reply quite quickly.

As SP says IB is very good and I use it as my primary platform.

I also use TastyWorks, a US platform, because the interface is very fast/responsive on my 7 year old MacBook Pro and it's great for setting up various combos to see how they'll react to price moves. IB does this too, but is a bit more clunky on my computer.  I'll generally work out a combo trade on TastyWorks, but then make the trade itself in IB.

A huge benefit with IB is its reporting, very useful when it comes to doing my tax return. TastyWorks reporting is terrible for non-US taxpayers, and it only supports dollar denominated accounts. 

You pay tax on your option trading profits?

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

This has occurred to anti-lockdown circles. The biggest difficulty is getting people to a random location at short notice on a working day. I also think that some of the locations are problematic. They don't want to inconvenience drivers, they want support from them. Parliament Square is fair game though.

There is also an assumption that all the extinction rebellion protests have political support and that one of the aims is to bring in further laws curtailing protest by others.

The only mitigation for the police is that the insulation protestors are few in number and not a physical threat to anybody other than themselves.

Remember, remember the fifth of November. Tonight is the million mask march. Sounds like it will be a chaotic affair in central London. Various meeting points at various times. Anonymous masks. Fireworks. Guy Fawkes was originally the anti-hero of bonfire night. Now he is the hero. What was once a pro-monarchy and historically very anti-catholic event is now firmly anti-establishment. At least for a growing number. The message for many is that blowing up Parliament would be a good thing. It is why they're trying to relegate it behind Halloween - a festival of greed and plastic consumerism. The police will be on war footing tonight.

That Tim Price off 'The State of the Markets' podcast I posted recently, says he has personally been on 5 anti-lockdown London mass marches, but only one has been reported by the so-called BBC!! ...When I hear things like this, but also know that any similar climate march would definitely get reported on, I get a cold shiver run down my spine!?             ...Good call on the Guy Fawkes theory btw, coincidentally 'V for Vendetta' is one of Tim Prices favourite films!

[belfastchild]

Just home to no Energy Price Cap Northern Ireland and in my inbox...

...electricity prices to go up another 9% from 1st December...
22.12p a kWh.

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Looks like Biden will be a lame duck by next year.This could be the trigger.

Both of these Republican challngers were facing states that went for Biden by 15%+ last November

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59159008

Joe Biden has rejected suggestions that his Democratic party's shock loss in the Virginia governor's race was a verdict on his presidency.

Mr Biden argued that the miring of his legislative agenda in a Capitol Hill logjam did not sway the outcome.

He cited "Trump voters", schools, jobs and petrol prices as other reasons for the surprise defeat of Terry McAuliffe.

Republican Glenn Youngkin, a political newcomer, came from behind to win the Virginia governor's race on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the New Jersey governor's race went down to a nail-biting dead heat between the Democratic incumbent, Phil Murphy, and a little-known Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli.

US media have projected Mr Murphy will win that race, though his opponent has not yet conceded.

At the White House on Wednesday, Mr Biden was asked whether he accepted any blame for Tuesday's political earthquake in Virginia.

He said voters are "upset and uncertain about a lot of things", including the pandemic, education, the economy and the price of petrol.

Mr Biden conceded Democrats should have passed his signature $1.75tn (£1.3tn) package of social and climate programmes and a $1tn infrastructure bill before Tuesday's vote.

I notice that the BBC are already sneering at Glenn Youngkin as a Tump part deux type politician... In my book that probably means he's a shoe in for the next Pres of USA!!              ...But I mention him also because he's apparently a climate skeptic, so I do wonder if/when USA/and us here, will ever get our massive anticipated green infrastructure build programme underway, then again maybe energy companies will take this pivot/challenge on as per this thread has predicted from the begining, especially now that 'Pope' Bill Gates has recently given his blessing for private companies to come help out in the green rescue plan. 

[Bobthebuilder]

8 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Remember, remember the fifth of November. Tonight is the million mask march. Sounds like it will be a chaotic affair in central London. Various meeting points at various times. Anonymous masks. Fireworks. Guy Fawkes was originally the anti-hero of bonfire night. Now he is the hero. What was once a pro-monarchy and historically very anti-catholic event is now firmly anti-establishment. At least for a growing number. The message for many is that blowing up Parliament would be a good thing. It is why they're trying to relegate it behind Halloween - a festival of greed and plastic consumerism. The police will be on war footing tonight.

I've heard the riot police are already geared up and waiting for tonight.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

 I dont do options currently ( or previously ) but I read the thread, I seem to remember https://www.tastyworks.com/ being mentioned, whether thats UK compatible I don't know. Also that thread recommended youtube channel Otpions Alpha as  a learning resource for those new to options 

Sancho would know. Options are a smart play for reducing risk if you know what you are doing.

I would want to have a practice on a simulation platform personally.

Options Alpha is very good for training, I completed it last year, but then changed my plan and now want to wait until after the BK(?). Afterward I really like the idea of holding a core position and not trading it, though remaining invested and arbitraging between sectors is still my strategy. But the big plus for me is the 12k tax free capitol gains that's available, almost be rude not to partake of this tax dodge...!! 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

52 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I've heard the riot police are already geared up and waiting for tonight.

I detoured down Whitehall at 1.15. There were already TSG vans parked up and lots of ordinary police about too. At the Cenotaph I asked a, very attractive, young female copper why the flags had been taken down. She has a Scottish accent, which surprised me, but didn't know why they'd been taken down. Did mention there were planned protests and that could be why.

The police were doing nothing about scam ball in cup games on Westminster Bridge.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Why would anyone hold bonds from anyone except maybe for index linked or convertible?  I still have most of my Chinese stocks.

He thinks Western capitol will continue to flow into Chinese bonds, however I don't remember his rationale for this but think his full article can be found on the GaveKal site. For Chinese stocks I assume you do your weekly/monthly TA on them to prepare for selling, I really only do buy and hold so would be too risky for me... I'm part assuming that you don't anticipate owning those stocks in say 5 years time, or am I wrong in saying this?

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

You pay tax on your option trading profits?

CGT isnt it? 

[Errol]

 

[MvR]

5 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

 I dont do options currently ( or previously ) but I read the thread, I seem to remember https://www.tastyworks.com/ being mentioned, whether thats UK compatible I don't know. Also that thread recommended youtube channel Otpions Alpha as  a learning resource for those new to options 

Sancho would know. Options are a smart play for reducing risk if you know what you are doing.

I would want to have a practice on a simulation platform personally.

You can open a TastyWorks account as a UK citizen, bus as I say, it only reports in dollars and offers dollar denominated accounts.

TastyTrade and Options Alpha are great training resources for your first couple of years trading, focused on trading for income, rather than speculation.

Beyond that, if you have enough capital to trade with Portfolio Margin ( over $100k in your account ) there are lots of more advanced strategies you can use, trading options in the SPX, Russell futures etc.

At this advanced level, I recommend :-

John Locke's  https://www.lockeinyoursuccess.com.  Monthly subscription, various levels available, and really needs a subscription to OptionsNet Explorer too.  He has lots of free content on YouTube though, which is all I've used so far. https://www.youtube.com/c/JohnLockeInYourSuccess

I also like and have learned a lot from Ron Bertino's  https://university.tradingdominion.com  

He offers two courses you can pay for as a one off. One course is focused on a single, but really nice, elegantly hedged SPX trading strategy for income, and the other is focused on long term portfolio management using indexes.  I bought the $2000 two-course package and although it's a bit on the steep side, It's nearly paid for itself already in about a year, even using my relatively small $20k TastyWorks account.  

I wouldn't suggest Ron's options course until you get to the appropriate level, by which time you might not need it, but his Portfolio Investing course ( $480 ish ), might be good value, particularly if you've got £100k + and are looking to construct and manage a passive portfolio based on ETFs.  It's an advanced, highly detailed approach similar to, and building upon, Ray Dalio's Perpetual Portfolio, including how to use various free online tools for backtesting your strategies.  I'm sure you could learn much of what he teaches here from the right books, but I'm a visual/auditory learner myself, so they suit me.

You can implement the options strategies taught above, and in John Locke's free YouTube content, in a much smaller account for learning purposes, as I do in my $20k TastyWorks account, but the leverage of Portfolio Margin is required to achieve the kinds of profits and hedging you'd be looking for if you were aiming to create a reliable income, for retirement maybe.  

One advantage of these more advanced strategies is they are very mechanical and hands off, the kind of thing you'd probably be looking for in retirement.

[MvR]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

You pay tax on your option trading profits?

Yes.  Personally I pay income tax on my options trading profits since it is my main source of income, but most people would pay CGT I guess. This is super simple to figure out and declare using IB's custom reports. You can just give the total from the report, and then attach it to your tax return.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

He thinks Western capitol will continue to flow into Chinese bonds, however I don't remember his rationale for this but think his full article can be found on the GaveKal site. For Chinese stocks I assume you do your weekly/monthly TA on them to prepare for selling, I really only do buy and hold so would be too risky for me... I'm part assuming that you don't anticipate owning those stocks in say 5 years time, or am I wrong in saying this?

Yep, I look every week, except when I join @MvR like the last time and lost a ton on one.  They are div stocks so I hold.   Not a huge amount but I'm not too bothered atm.

[Loki]

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

CGT isnt it? 

Would you pay CGT on financial spread betting profits?

[MvR]

1 hour ago, MvR said:

I also like and have learned a lot from Ron Bertino's  https://university.tradingdominion.com  

to add, there's a review of Ron's course here : -

Funny thing is, there's something about that photo of him that screams "Psychopathic YouTube scammer" at least to me.  But once you see him presenting his actual course he comes across as the exact opposite.. a deeply likeable, maybe on-the-spectrum guy who loves nothing more than explaining his passion in comprehensive detail. 

 

 

[planit]

10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ive tried finding the options thread on here but no luck. 

 

Can any of the options boys share which service they use for trading?

 

Ive looked at interactive brokers and they look decent. 

 

Any others? 

I have been catching up on reading, there are so many posts at the moment I am having trouble keeping up.

Funnily enough I came to a decision on Interactive Brokers a week a go after my research and completed my application this morning.

Thanks also to @sancho panza and @MvR for their comments, good to know they are recommended on here too. 

 

23 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Someone with balls of steel will make a fortune shorting it, just not me

Another coincidence, I decided to short Tesla yesterday afternoon for the smallest amount IG would allow.

My goal was just to have shorted Tesla without losing money.

Managed to come away with £2.88 . Just need to keep away from Tesla now, they just seem so ridiculously high 

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, planit said:

Another coincidence, I decided to short Tesla yesterday afternoon for the smallest amount IG would allow.

My goal was just to have shorted Tesla without losing money.

Managed to come away with £2.88 . Just need to keep away from Tesla now, they just seem so ridiculously high 

I remember reading that it was recently possible to borrow money to get into all this shorting malarkey, and people lost an absolute fortune of other peoples money.

Would be an idea for someone who is looking to leave the country shortly and has no fixed assets ... could result in a heads i win, tails i lost your money scenario .. if anyone can point me in the direction of this it'd be interesting!

[ThoughtCriminal]

44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Would you pay CGT on financial spread betting profits?

As far as im aware, spread betting carries no tax liability with it as its considered gambling. 

 

The irony. 

[Loki]

53 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I remember reading that it was recently possible to borrow money to get into all this shorting malarkey, and people lost an absolute fortune of other peoples money.

Would be an idea for someone who is looking to leave the country shortly and has no fixed assets ... could result in a heads i win, tails i lost your money scenario .. if anyone can point me in the direction of this it'd be interesting!

Trading 212 and a credit card is all you'd need, sell CFDs

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

Trading 212 and a credit card is all you'd need, sell CFDs

Do they lend me money though, as opposed to a credit card company.

Id be looking to use 5/6 figures.