Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Do they lend me money though, as opposed to a credit card company.

Id be looking to use 5/6 figures.

You'd be buying margin with credit.  So yes if you have even a moderate credit card limit.   

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Options. I'm intrigued. If you hold shares in an HL account. Is it not possible to put you're shares up for the option to sell?

If not, what is the best platform to buy/hold shares in which allows the options scenario.

Thanks for any help, apologies, not really the thread theme.

IB. You have to opt in. They lend out to whoever wants to short them. Split the fee 50:50.

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

You'd be buying margin with credit.  So yes if you have even a moderate credit card limit.   

Cheers i'll PM you for an education nearer the time!

[Castlevania]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Do they lend me money though, as opposed to a credit card company.

Id be looking to use 5/6 figures.

Be very careful. All the bucket shops have a load of made up fees that will slowly bleed you dry.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Be very careful. All the bucket shops have a load of made up fees that will slowly bleed you dry.

I don't think he's too worried about that 

[Hancock]

Can't be long until airlines/airports start going bust, if this chart showing Heathrow flight levels is accurate.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Can't be long until airlines/airports start going bust, if this chart showing Heathrow flight levels is accurate.

IAG opened another £1billion credit line today.

[Loki]

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

[Hancock]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

IAG opened another £1billion credit line today.

I saw they reported a £3 billion loss earlier today ... at some point an Asian is going to open an airline which will have no pension liabilities or debt that IAG has, thus having the ability to undercut them by some distance ... same applies for the other European national carriers.

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

Does he get credit for this one also!

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Does he get credit for this one also!

 

I had to pull up an oil chart...yeah.  I suppose it depends if he called Aug 21 as a buy. I had a quick squizz and didn't see anything

depe

 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

IB. You have to opt in. They lend out to whoever wants to short them. Split the fee 50:50.

Or buy an ETF with a low change, they'll be doing this to subsidize their fees/keep them low...nothing like a bit of counterparty risk in your `safe` passive ETF :-)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

What was his airline call?...any sources anyone?

[Hardhat]

34 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

What was his airline call?...any sources anyone?

 

[Boon]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

I saw they reported a £3 billion loss earlier today ... at some point an Asian is going to open an airline which will have no pension liabilities or debt that IAG has, thus having the ability to undercut them by some distance ... same applies for the other European national carriers.

Notably, the stock market reaction was good though, a 3bn loss sounds bad but with cash of over double that, it isn't going to go bust any time soon.

However, barriers to entry are a bit different in this business. Some of the middle eastern airlines undercut and offer a better product, but if you cannot get any of the prime slots, how will they get into the market? That means flying indirect, which only works for some destinations. 

Not joining an alliance brings on other costs such as lounges and reduces value to customers by selling connections.... but if they do join it then cut-throat competition isn't going to be allowed.

If you were to open an airline from scratch to try and out-compete IAG/KLM/Air France then they would quickly accrue pretty much the same debt or worse - that was Norwegian. 

[Option5]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

What was his airline call?...any sources anyone?

Laker Airways? 

[Castlevania]

Air France KLM got a huge bailout (Covid support) from the Dutch and French government. I think Lufthansa did too from Germany. As an upstart it’s not a level playing field.

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

David is a superb macro strategist,and i know most of the tools he uses,he was given them at Fidelity,but he didnt stay in the macro team and was only a junior,he moved on to manage pension funds for them.His real strength is Fed policy and leads and lags.He will always be pushing his roadmap out to try to see what he thinks will happen then the cross market work of who might gain.He thinks oil has topped so he thinks airlines will gain.At Fidelity he would pass the macro work to the equity team and they would decide.They might then pick their favourite airline stocks,but that doesnt say they would sell oil stocks,they might sell smaller ones and up bigger ones,expecting a lower prices to slow drilling etc.For Twitter Dave is doing his job ,but also stretched to others.He has every right to,and is really showing the process.I can tell you now his roadmap wont have a date on,only where the macro points to it going,not when.His old bosses mantra was it will go where its going in its own time.Where its going not when is the key.

The team at Fidelity were the best equity team of all time,and probably the only ones to use macro strategy as the foundation to their investing.Nobody does it now,they are all too short term hence the rise of Vanguard etc,something i think is about to reverse.

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

As far as im aware, spread betting carries no tax liability with it as its considered gambling. 

 

The irony. 

That's what I thought. You said CGT would apply to options trading but if you don't exercise the option, buy shares then sell them at a profit, you haven't incurred a capital gain it's just gambling?

[Majorpain]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

He's got tunnel vision on his metrics, and is completely ignoring that if the governments shut down again, it doesn't matter how much liquidity is in the system they are going straight down to market hell.

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

He's got tunnel vision on his metrics, and is completely ignoring that if the governments shut down again, it doesn't matter how much liquidity is in the system they are going straight down to market hell.

Liquidity still matters though,it would just move.This time they have used direct fiscal injections to families,not banks.He is trying to work out the waves of liquidity and then how it flows through the economy,where etc.Most people in the market only see the bits a blind man can see.People often forget that David is mainly talking about US markets etc and the affect on them of a global bust.Tesla falling 80%+ is a given.Would BT? ,BAT?,how many woke actually own a BAT or a BP?

David is actually turning more short term trader though without realising it,likely due to age (the older you get you have shorter timescales) and the twitter lot dont really want to hear i think this will gain 2%pa above inflation over the cycle.

[Majorpain]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liquidity still matters though,it would just move.This time they have used direct fiscal injections to families,not banks.He is trying to work out the waves of liquidity and then how it flows through the economy,where etc.Most people in the market only see the bits a blind man can see.People often forget that David is mainly talking about US markets etc and the affect on them of a global bust.Tesla falling 80%+ is a given.Would BT? ,BAT?,how many woke actually own a BAT or a BP?

David is actually turning more short term trader though without realising it,likely due to age (the older you get you have shorter timescales) and the twitter lot dont really want to hear i think this will gain 2%pa above inflation over the cycle.

My comment was not clear and was directed solely at the airlines, it is "brave" to start predictions on something that could at the present time be back to minimal revenue with a single politicians phone call.

[Loki]

 After weeks of infighting between progressives and Democratic moderates, the House finally passed the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, after enough progressives broke ranks with their caucus to push it through

 

 

 

 

Brrrrrrrrr time?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Begging the Qataris to be our supplier of last resort for LNG. 

 

What a fucking shit show this country has become. 

[Errol]