Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree but some tried more than sit down protests. The BNP repeatedly called out the child grooming gangs in the early 2000's, but it was their leader who found himself prosecuted for 'hate crime'!! He was was found not guilty. I never supported the BNP but it is 'events' like this that encourage - left or right leaning people - to vote for Trump-like figures, but just stating the bleeding obvious I suppose.

Dont want to thread derail but i have to say that the argument of "Well you might tolerate gang rape of your children by followers of Mo the child rapist, but at least youre not racist" is up there with "Your major cities might all be stabby, rapey third world shitholes, but if Hitler had won youd be speaking German". 

[sancho panza]

Looks like Biden will be a lame duck by next year.This could be the trigger.

Both of these Republican challngers were facing states that went for Biden by 15%+ last November

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59159008

Joe Biden has rejected suggestions that his Democratic party's shock loss in the Virginia governor's race was a verdict on his presidency.

Mr Biden argued that the miring of his legislative agenda in a Capitol Hill logjam did not sway the outcome.

He cited "Trump voters", schools, jobs and petrol prices as other reasons for the surprise defeat of Terry McAuliffe.

Republican Glenn Youngkin, a political newcomer, came from behind to win the Virginia governor's race on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the New Jersey governor's race went down to a nail-biting dead heat between the Democratic incumbent, Phil Murphy, and a little-known Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli.

US media have projected Mr Murphy will win that race, though his opponent has not yet conceded.

At the White House on Wednesday, Mr Biden was asked whether he accepted any blame for Tuesday's political earthquake in Virginia.

He said voters are "upset and uncertain about a lot of things", including the pandemic, education, the economy and the price of petrol.

Mr Biden conceded Democrats should have passed his signature $1.75tn (£1.3tn) package of social and climate programmes and a $1tn infrastructure bill before Tuesday's vote.

[ThoughtCriminal]

36 minutes ago, MvR said:

Yes... sorry, I haven't really kept up with my options trading thread.  Sometimes I start things then get distracted with other things and lose momentum.  I'm always happy to talk about options though, so give me a mention and I'll usually reply quite quickly.

As SP says IB is very good and I use it as my primary platform.

I also use TastyWorks, a US platform, because the interface is very fast/responsive on my 7 year old MacBook Pro and it's great for setting up various combos to see how they'll react to price moves. IB does this too, but is a bit more clunky on my computer.  I'll generally work out a combo trade on TastyWorks, but then make the trade itself in IB.

A huge benefit with IB is its reporting, very useful when it comes to doing my tax return. TastyWorks reporting is terrible for non-US taxpayers, and it only supports dollar denominated accounts. 

Thanks M! And SP. Much appreciated. 👍

 

Have you ever used the IB app at all? 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah,this is an issue,being a copper now involves doing a two/three year degree,I think it's safe to say they're not targetting people leaving the military anymore.

As I've said,there's some jobs I've been on where we've been backed up by two models in police uniform.Nice people no doubt but they'd need back up to restrain a mildly aggressive person.

 

I find it amazing when I speak to a lot of Remoaner types who fail to appreciate the role declining disposable incomes played in Brexit and Trump.

This chart trend is still running and anyone who thinks this won't end in a large social dislocation where the bottom 50% have nothing to lose hasn't studied history-as per previous discussions @JMD. The set up here is similar to Russian revolution/rise of Hitler.

David Hunter has said he hopes he's dead before this cycle comes to an end and I can see why.I look at COP26 and it's clear our political elite have forgotten the lessons of history

This is a chart I've stumbled across but we've had similar before iirc.

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2021/11/stocks-and-precious-metals-charts_4.html

Yes, its the equality/fairness argument coming to haunt all the progressive mindset types, not that they wil learn to adjust their very un-critical thinking. Ayn Rand said '...you can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the effects of ignoring reality'!                                                                                                                                                                                          So GP numbers are nominally up, but most now are female and most of these new entrants like doing part-time...  I.e. big fail for the public. As for women police officers/fire women, well it's very illuminating when their own managers speak candidly about the 'challenges' of  operating a 'safe shift', due to differing abilities or just even very simple concepts like different upper-body strenghs. Again, rotas need perhaps twice the man/person power because some staff simply aren't physically capable of pulling their weight... Am not saying women should be excluded, but it does anger me that the political narrative is that women have been historically excluded due to misogeny, etc. 

[Noallegiance]

Fuck me sideways...

Hammond: UK's depleted gold reserves could be replenished with 'digital assets' (msn.com)

[Barnsey]

 

[Bricormortis]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ive tried finding the options thread on here but no luck. 

 

Can any of the options boys share which service they use for trading?

 

Ive looked at interactive brokers and they look decent. 

 

Any others? 

 I dont do options currently ( or previously ) but I read the thread, I seem to remember https://www.tastyworks.com/ being mentioned, whether thats UK compatible I don't know. Also that thread recommended youtube channel Otpions Alpha as  a learning resource for those new to options 

Sancho would know. Options are a smart play for reducing risk if you know what you are doing.

I would want to have a practice on a simulation platform personally.

[Bricormortis]

9 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Forward it to Andrew Bailey please 

[Bricormortis]

29 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Fuck me sideways...

Hammond: UK's depleted gold reserves could be replenished with 'digital assets' (msn.com)

Nah..........and Nah.

But they will have all our cash.....one of the front runners for replacing Powell is an advocate for the Fed to hold everybodys savings....guess what happens next

[Bricormortis]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

I agree but some tried more than sit down protests. The BNP repeatedly called out the child grooming gangs in the early 2000's, but it was their leader who found himself prosecuted for 'hate crime'!! He was was found not guilty. I never supported the BNP (because i am 'one of the good people'!!??, Triggernometry podcast joke) but it is 'events' like these that encourage - left and right leaning people - to vote for Trump-like figures... but just stating the bleeding obvious I suppose.

No  he was prosecuted for contempt for doing a facebook live video of defendants in breach of a court order. If he didn't breach the court order he would not have been banged up.

[MvR]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Thanks M! And SP. Much appreciated. 👍

 

Have you ever used the IB app at all? 

I do on rare occasions If I'm away from the computer and need to make a trade, but not usually. I find the interface a little odd for trading combos ( maybe I'm just not used to it ), but it's OK for stocks or when I just want to roll a single option up, down, or out to a further expiry. 

[Noallegiance]

11 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

But they will have all our cash.....one of the front runners for replacing Powell is an advocate for the Fed to hold everybodys savings....guess what happens next

That and the Communist bird in line for the OCC post. Things are looking good.

[Bricormortis]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I think you are spot on there re the book sales. As I said the other day BJ will embrace net zero in hopes he can make it his legacy, and have a second political life off it after number 10.

He's seen all the repeat work Attenborough gets.. David Bellamy on the other hand........

[sancho panza]

Just run up some coma scores on last years full results(so very out of date) as we're buying some baccy stocks.17+/25 is my spray n pray buy level,balance sheet scores in red indicate 100% of the equity is goodwill/intangibles.BATS the obvious standout 21 is a cracking coma score and normally indicates it's a cash machine.

Company	Share price	Date	Chart	Inc	BS	CF	Sector	SCS
IMB	15.62	05/11/21	4	4	1	5	5	19
BATS	25.28	05/11/21	4	4	3	5	5	21
JAPY	2360	05/11/21	4	3	3	4	5	19
ALTRIA	44.61	05/11/21	3	3	1	4	5	16
PM	94.53	05/11/21	2	3	1	3	5	14
KT&G
ITC

[Harley]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I find IB is a bit above my pay grade at teh minute.

Have you tried their app or web front end?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes, I don't 'do China', but I was glad to be educated about the China risk element early on in this thread mainly from other posters here who were much more knowledgeable about these things. Having said that I guess their is scope for active traders, however I am long everything and also still accumulating, but have taken a  pause while awaiting the (stay puff!!) BK. Though once fully invested I might experiment with options, they do look fun if you have money to risk (which I do have), however at the moment I don't want to be distracted to much.                                                                                                                                                Back to bonds - I'm reminded that Louis Gave of GaveKal, has a theory that China will let its equity market fail, go big corporatism, protect its workers at all costs, etc. The flip side of the strategy he says is that China will protect its bond market, which he comments is already at present the most attractive one for bond investors. I can't find the original article he did that went into details... But the below article touches on bonds a bit, plus although a year old, it shows why I rate his macro thinking, he covers a lot of subjects and well worth a read... and interesting to see how accurate his predictions were...                                                                                                                        https://themarket.ch/interview/louis-gave-inflation-will-come-back-with-a-vengeance-ld.3307

Why would anyone hold bonds from anyone except maybe for index linked or convertible?  I still have most of my Chinese stocks.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MvR said:

Yes... sorry, I haven't really kept up with my options trading thread.  Sometimes I start things then get distracted with other things and lose momentum.  

We need a self help thr......ah hang on, something going on over there......!    This really why I'm crap at this malarkey.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Ref that last bit in bold,bang on.It's looking now that it won't need IR rises for a recession as the public are that leveraged,the inflation will send the economy over the edge.

Excellent point.  They say an oil price rise is like an interest hike.  Why stop at oil, especially when it gets bad enough.  Inflation (largely due to govt action) and an increasing public sector take is classic "crowding out" sort of stuff.

[JMD]

11 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

No iirc he was prosecuted for contempt for doing a facebook live video of defendants in breach of a court order

Your referring to something different - Many contempt of court proceedings over the years were bought in order to financially bankrupt the BNP party. Its typically what the state does to silent political parties it dislikes. I say this firstly because it's true, but also because in terms of this financial thread, we should all be very mindfall of watching and protecting our ass'-ets'!!... from future government confiscation!                                                                                                                                                                           However, what I said about the charge of hate crime is true. It happened in 2006 and I wrote from memory. But after now re-reading the article details of the Griffin speech, etc, which stirred such outrage with subsequent legal charges, plus what's happened since especially last year's Covid events, tbh I now find the whole story all the more alarming...                                                                  https://www.irishtimes.com/news/speeches-by-bnp-leader-led-to-race-hate-charges-1.1003051

[Axeman123]

 

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

and there is more

Marina Purkiss on Twitter: "Here’s a picture of the corruption we’re dealing with: - Owen Paterson paid £500ph to advise for Randox - Randox wins £133m contract for Covid testing without any other firms getting chance to bid - Govt makes Randox tests mandatory for travel - Randox reports £218m revenue (+85%)" / Twitter

 

So they spent a couple of hundred grand on an MP and get hundreds of million in return, what a fantastic business model with zero risk involved.

No wonder there is so much hatred from the opposition parties, who are obviously wanting a piece of this action.

Have to laugh when our lot make claims of corruption in Africa/Asia those peoples are amateurs compared to this govt.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

No  he was prosecuted for contempt for doing a facebook live video of defendants in breach of a court order. If he didn't breach the court order he would not have been banged up.

BNP is Nick Griffin, but the only reason Tommy Robinson was banged up is because he is Tommy Robinson.

Its bollocks to claim otherwise.

 

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

 

 

Did GSK have a vaccine....

[HousePriceMania]

I've been motlied again....

 

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

So you spend a couple of hundred grand on an MP and get hundreds of million back.

No wonder there is so much hatred from the opposition parties, who are obviously wanting a piece of this action.

Have to laugh when our lot make claims of corruption in Africa/Asia those peoples are amateurs compared to this govt.

 

I think I must have a brain tumour or something, I seem to remember everything now.