Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[CVG]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Clearly DBs assertion that the government is going to spend big on infrastructure is going to happen.

Does anyone have any thoughts on:

1. Kier

2. Balfour Beatty plc

3.  Mitie Group PLC

4. Keller Group

5. SkanSka

6. HOCHTIEF

7. Vinci

8 Saipem

9. Strabag

10. ACS

Is there any of them that should definitely be ignored ?

Some 4% ish dividends in there. 

I just invest in 3i Group PLC Investment Trust and let them worry about what mix of PE and Infrastructure stocks to buy.

[Barnsey]

 

[Noallegiance]

Boom

[Bricks & Mortar]

Good evening ladies and gentlemen.   
I just popped down here to share a slightly concerning anecdotal.  
My brother-in-law is a gas engineer.  Not the kind that services your boiler.   The kind that usually works 4 weeks on/off at a large gas production facility, in the desert, in one of the more stable middle-east countries.
He's out there now.  They're working flat out, and his usual 4 weeks has turned into 3 months.  It'll be nearly 4 by time he gets back in December.
I was thinking they must be flat out trying to address a global gas shortage.

But the latest news, is they're shutting down in mid-December, and staying closed for at least 5 months.

I'm thinking, WTF!

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Still got a bit to go.

4 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Good evening ladies and gentlemen.   
I just popped down here to share a slightly concerning anecdotal.  
My brother-in-law is a gas engineer.  Not the kind that services your boiler.   The kind that usually works 4 weeks on/off at a large gas plant in the desert in one of the more stable middle-east countries.
He's out there now.  They're working flat out, and his usual 4 weeks has turned into 3 months.  It'll be nearly 4 by time he gets back in December.
I was thinking they must be flat out trying to address a global gas shortage.

But the latest news, is they're shutting down in mid-December, and staying closed for at least 5 months.

I'm thinking, WTF!

Nah its because its a ball-ache getting out to certain countries with jabs, PCR tests, and having to quarantine.

Visas can also be a hassle, sometime jobs just go on longer than planned.

120 days at say 500/600/700 a day means he has one over on the taxman!

PS he's probably watching Indians working flat out, whilst pointing at things with a clipboard in his hand.

 

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

they're shutting down in mid-December, and staying closed for at least 5 months.

Are they preparing for a big maintenance job?

[Jesus Wept]

16 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

For any newbies wandering the significance of the BDI: 

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of what it costs to ship raw materials—like iron ore, steel, cement, coal and so on—around the world. The Baltic Dry Index is compiled daily by The Baltic Exchange. To compile the index, members of the Baltic Exchange call dry bulk shippers around the world to see what their prices are for 22 different shipping routes around the globe. Once they have obtained these numbers, they compile them and find an average. To ensure they are getting a comprehensive view of the entire shipping industry when looking at various shipping costs, the Baltic Exchange looks at costs for each of the following four sizes of ships:

– Capemax (10 percent of the global fleet): ships that can carry 100,000+ dead weight tons of cargo and are too big to pass through the Panama Canal

– Panamax (19 percent of the global fleet): ships that can carry 60,000-80,000 dead weight tons of cargo and can barely fit through the Panama Canal

– Handymax, or Supramax (37 percent of the global fleet): ships that can carry 45,000-59,000 dead weight tons of cargo

– Handysize (34 percent of the global fleet): ships that can carry 15,000-35,000 dead weight tons of cargo

Why Investors Watch the Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index is a leading indicator that provides a clear view into the global demand for commodities and raw materials. The fact that the Baltic Dry Index focuses on raw materials is important because demand for raw materials provides a glimpse into the future. Producers buy raw materials when they want to start building more finished goods and infrastructure—like automobiles, heavy machinery, roads, buildings and so on. Producers stop buying raw materials when they have excess inventory and when they stop infrastructure projects.

Typically, demand for commodities and raw goods increases when global economies are growing. For investors, knowing when the global economy is growing is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be increasing. Conversely, demand for commodities and raw goods decreases when global economies are stalling or contracting. For investors, knowing when the global economy is contracting is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be decreasing.

The Baltic Dry Index is also a compelling indicator because it is a simple, real-time indicator that is difficult to manipulate. Some economic indicators—like unemployment rates, inflation indexes and oil prices—can be difficult to interpret because they can be manipulated or influenced by governments, speculators and other key players. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, is difficult to manipulate because it is driven by clear forces of supply and demand.

The supply that affects the Baltic Dry Index is the supply of ships available to move materials around the globe. It is difficult to manipulate or distort this supply because it takes years to build a new ship that could be put into service to increase supply, and it would cost far too much to leave ships empty in an attempt to decrease supply. The demand that affects the Baltic Dry Index is the demand of commodity buyers who need the raw goods for production. It is difficult to manipulate or distort demand because it is calculated solely by those who have placed orders to have raw goods shipped. Nobody is going to pay to book a Capemax cargo ship who isn’t actually going to use it.

Interpreting the Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index typically increases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods increases and decreases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods decreases.

Here’s what it typically means when the Baltic Dry Index turns around and starts moving UP:

– Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, grow

– Companies are starting to, or continuing to, grow

– Stock prices should start to, or continue to, increase in value

– Commodity prices should start to, or continue to, increase in value

– The value of commodity currencies—like the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD)—should start to, or continue to, increase in value

Here’s what it typically means when the Baltic Dry Index turns around and starts moving DOWN:

– Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, contract

– Companies are starting to, or continuing to, contract

– Stock prices should start to, or continue to, decrease in value

– Commodity prices should start to, or continue to, decrease in value

– The value of commodity currencies—like the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD)—should start to, or continue to, decrease in value

[Chewing Grass]

36 minutes ago, CVG said:

I just invest in 3i Group PLC Investment Trust and let them worry about what mix of PE and Infrastructure stocks to buy.

I worked for a company bought by 3i, they made me redundant.

[SpectrumFX]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Remember though this cycle was going to be and is about bailing governments out,not banks.The government is handing out around £200 billion in benefits its not raising tax for.If it increases tax on workers to pay it nobody will work.They are instead taking it from peoples assets through inflation.Inheritance tax and personal allowance frozen for 5 years with rampant inflation.We need a citizens income instead of welfare,but they wont do it yet.

Big government is the enemy to my kids and grandkids.I can navigate it,but when im gone im not sure they will be able to.

I can't see this shitshow coming to an end anytime soon, but we can but hope.

[Bricks & Mortar]

14 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Still got a bit to go.

Nah its because its a ball-ache getting out to certain countries with jabs, PCR tests, and having to quarantine.

Visas can also be a hassle, sometime jobs just go on longer than planned.

120 days at say 500/

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are they preparing for a big maintenance job?

/700 a day means he has one over on the taxman!

PS he's probably watching Indians working flat out, whilst pointing at things with a clipboard in his hand.

 

He is watching Indians with a clipboard, right enough.

I'll probably not get the full story until he gets home.  Don't think it's maintenance.  Just a shutdown and send all workers home.

They did get into trouble last winter with quarantines, and positive tests in quarantine, leading to difficulties with shift changes.  They ended up shutting down completely for a few months.

I'm just surprised they're planning for that again before it happens.

[Hancock]

13 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I worked for a company bought by 3i, they made me redundant.

Were they named after a bird?

[Phil]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Clearly DBs assertion that the government is going to spend big on infrastructure is going to happen.

Does anyone have any thoughts on:

1. Kier

2. Balfour Beatty plc

3.  Mitie Group PLC

4. Keller Group

5. SkanSka

6. HOCHTIEF

7. Vinci

8 Saipem

9. Strabag

10. ACS

Is there any of them that should definitely be ignored ?

Some 4% ish dividends in there. 

Majority of that list have inept management. Amazed kier for example are still trading. Shower IMO. 

[Bricks & Mortar]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Loss of pressure in the reservoir, needs a rest? If it's Oman those gas reservoirs also have low perm connectivity problems.

It is Oman.  And it's an old field, old plant.  That makes sense.

[Option5]

23 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Loss of pressure in the reservoir, needs a rest? If it's Oman those gas reservoirs also have low perm connectivity problems.

Plenty of tight gas in Oman. Haven't BP got a lot of it?

[leonardratso]

ive got some tight gas at the moment if anyone wants to bid for it. May contain nuts.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

ive got some tight gas at the moment if anyone wants to bid for it. May contain nuts.

I have wanted to post this for ages, I always get reminded of this video when you technical guys get chatting about charts, candles and stuff. Always want to ask, "Woopy-doo, what does it all mean, Basil".

[Hancock]

Bezos, richest man on earth ... is a fucken  cuck.

 

[wherebee]

and de caprio knows he's gushed her without trying, and is right out of there.  clever man.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/biden-shutting-down-line-5-pipeline-could-send-gas-prices-surging/ar-AAQsK9X?cvid=bad90e9411644000aa78cc8f7cbba0a2&ocid=winp1taskbar
 

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden announced to suspend all laws to recreate the film The Purge going into next year in the US.

[Jesus Wept]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59212983

 

I picked up some RR yesterday lunchtime (and some more telecoms TEF euro and ORA sa). All long term (10 year +)  ISA holds.

Will be interesting how RR reacts to this news. Looks like it has already been incorporated into Share Price.

[jamtomorrow]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats why i never invest in those type of companies.Get one right after its smashed you can make good money,but seems they take on huge risks for tiny margins.They always strike me as companies who make good money for their staff and directors,but not for shareholders.Its an industry where they all know the game as well and if a company goes down they just join another one.

Upstream producers of building materials are a better bet - you get two bites that way, one from pricing power in an inflation, and then a second bite from the Government tit.

Example in the UK: CRH. Through their various subsidiaries (e.g. Tarmac), they're the largest producer of quarry products, and in an age of collapsing global logistics and Government-sponsored spades in the ground, I *really* want a piece of that pricing power.

[jamtomorrow]

Holy moly

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Holy moly

 

BK worthy, and makes it clearer why Musk is bailing from Tesla now.  Not too many people are going to able to afford £60k Tesla's if these blow.

 

[Harley]

Uranium miners on a tear yesterday.  Three up over 10%.

[HousePriceMania]

13 hours ago, Phil said:

Majority of that list have inept management. Amazed kier for example are still trading. Shower IMO. 

Thanks, I'll steer clear.