Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ThoughtCriminal]

I know theres a few sat in cash on here and having FOMO worries, Charlie Munger quotes on waiting for the right deal:

 

"It takes character to sit there with all that cash & do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities."

"The way to get rich is to keep millions on your checking A/C in case a great deal comes along."

 

Although its worrying that he doesnt consider millions in your checking account to be rich. 😒😂

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Uranium miners on a tear yesterday.  Three up over 10%.

I would of four bagged a five figure sum from last March in the ETF URA that iv bought and sold many times over the years,that is until the EU banned me from buying it for my own protection so i could by EU bonds instead.Of course those stupid rules havent been removed even though we are out of the EU.That,COPEX and KOL ,but KOL has gone now.

Noticed Abrdn  might be buying II to challenge HL.I think the sector is in play,M+G might be in Schroders sights as well.We need the platforms to provide access to more markets because they seem to be making it harder and harder,of course because they want people in funds.

[Barnsey]

Depressing chart

[Loki]

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I would of four bagged a five figure sum from last March in the ETF URA that iv bought and sold many times over the years,that is until the EU banned me from buying it for my own protection so i could by EU bonds instead.Of course those stupid rules havent been removed even though we are out of the EU.That,COPEX and KOL ,but KOL has gone now.

Noticed Abrdn  might be buying II to challenge HL.I think the sector is in play,M+G might be in Schroders sights as well.We need the platforms to provide access to more markets because they seem to be making it harder and harder,of course because they want people in funds.

Geiger and Sprott have me covered for miners and physical. Long term holds.

Geiger up 90% but ran away from me so I missed more ladders.  Might go in on a pullback as it either will do that to complete the current cup and handle or it has already done that and is in its final blow off. 

Sprott has also been good.  I like the chart pattern so again will add on weakness.  May be pulling back now as part of a cup and handle in which case more to come.  Or again, in a completion run which often ends badly.

Hopefully gold and silver will follow through in the same ways.

I hold Abrdn long term and was reviewing it yesterday.  A good yielder.  I sold down prior to the last fall.   Bounced hard on the daily and getting close to a confirming signal on the weekly.  Monthly also may be on the turn.  I'm waiting for these to play through, or not.

Yes, other plays (internationally), not just on M&A which I never considered.  Some insurers such as ADM looking well beaten up too so it will be interesting to see what's next.

[belfastchild]

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

Bezos, richest man on earth ... is a fucken  cuck.

 

I quite literally bumped into him one day when I was somewhere I shouldnt be. A lot shorter than you would think, any wonder hes usually pictured standing alone.
Although in that video DeCaprio seems to be standing on something (never met him but dont know).

[ThoughtCriminal]

Laugh? I fucking pissed myself. 

 

The iron law of unintended consequences. 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/now-time-invest-fossil-fuels/

Of course i would say a year ago was the time to invest like we did,and for all the reasons stated.My dads take is "they" must of bought all their positions now so can take the lid off.He is probably right.

 

 

[Heart's Ease]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/now-time-invest-fossil-fuels/

Of course i would say a year ago was the time to invest like we did,and for all the reasons stated.My dads take is "they" must of bought all their positions now so can take the lid off.He is probably right.

 

 

Wow. One big run up in oil shares to come on top of what we've had already? Pension schemes buying back in?

My mind is boggling.

[Loki]

45 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 Pension schemes buying back in?

 

Would that depend on ESG regs?

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I know theres a few sat in cash on here and having FOMO worries, Charlie Munger quotes on waiting for the right deal:

 

"It takes character to sit there with all that cash & do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities."

"The way to get rich is to keep millions on your checking A/C in case a great deal comes along."

 

Although its worrying that he doesnt consider millions in your checking account to be rich. 😒😂

I've just been reading permabear Hussman's latest downdate and he's taken to quoting permabear Grantham, along a similar line:

Quote

I’ve been very clear about what I consider a definition of success – and that is only that, sooner or later, you will have made money to have sidestepped the bubble phase.

Hussman does his usual she cannae take any more captain, it's all going to blow on the figures stuff but ends with

Quote

 

Emphatically, nothing in our discipline presumes that this bubble cannot continue. We’ll respond to observable valuations, market internals, and other factors as they change, and an improvement in market internals here could defer our immediate (though not longer term) concerns. Still, in a bubble that’s already “checked all the boxes,” this may a particularly opportune moment to remember that, for disciplined investors, risk management is generous.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211108/

 

Maybe he's started reading Dave?

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[Harley]

Nat gas down hard today as part of a multi-day pullback so far this month.  Both ETNs down about 10% each.

[HousePriceMania]

Who shorted Tesla on Friday 

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Nat gas down hard today as part of a multi-day pullback so far this month.  Both ETNs down about 10% each.

Have a look at the commodity prices on

Big spikes on all of them, some of them have already collapsed back, looks like 2008 all over again

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Transitory inflation anyone ?

If the economy goes down the pan we're seeing -ve rates....

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

This is the big threat to integrated oil companies.Windmills etc they can outfund any renewable companies,but massive nuclear investment would hit gas hard.Its the reason BP etc cheer on windmills etc.Its base load that will kill them.

If you dont want massive nuclear then it has to be hydrogen ,but it seems our civil servants are dragging their feet.We always said on here uranium was the real oil company hedge.

Im surprised Harmony Gold dont mention Uranium more given how much of it is sat on their tailings and comes out with the gold.

 

[Majorpain]

59 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Have a look at the commodity prices on

Big spikes on all of them, some of them have already collapsed back, looks like 2008 all over again

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Transitory inflation anyone ?

If the economy goes down the pan we're seeing -ve rates....

One key thing this time around is how reliant on shipping the world is, and how insanely expensive it still is to ship from China.  Current values are skewed due to pandemic PPE, but i think its fair to say that China is exporting about double what it was 2008 vs 2021.

Its going to take a lot more work to onshore production of everything, but its too late for that as anecdotally there is a fair amount of demand destruction going on in the real economy.  Fuel prices alone have taken a fair chunk out of the average workers discretionary spending.

[Bobthebuilder]

50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is the big threat to integrated oil companies.Windmills etc they can outfund any renewable companies,but massive nuclear investment would hit gas hard.Its the reason BP etc cheer on windmills etc.Its base load that will kill them.

If you dont want massive nuclear then it has to be hydrogen ,but it seems our civil servants are dragging their feet.We always said on here uranium was the real oil company hedge.

Im surprised Harmony Gold dont mention Uranium more given how much of it is sat on their tailings and comes out with the gold.

 

Hydrogen will defiantly kick off. It's the easiest route for the government to go greenish without everybody changing their boiler, and the infrastructure is already in place. Gas industry magazines are full of Hydrogen articles every month and have been for ages, It's pretty much guaranteed I think.

Wish I had bought more Rolls-Royce now. I have got plenty of Harmony, let's hope they get an extra bid on the Uranium.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who shorted Tesla on Friday 

I talked about it, then bottled it. 

 

If anyone wants me I'll be outside with a bottle of whisky and a revolver. 😒

[DurhamBorn]

43 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

One key thing this time around is how reliant on shipping the world is, and how insanely expensive it still is to ship from China.  Current values are skewed due to pandemic PPE, but i think its fair to say that China is exporting about double what it was 2008 vs 2021.

Its going to take a lot more work to onshore production of everything, but its too late for that as anecdotally there is a fair amount of demand destruction going on in the real economy.  Fuel prices alone have taken a fair chunk out of the average workers discretionary spending.

I was offered a job yesterday for a smallish company,they have won a big contract onshoring the production of those metal parcel trolleys Royal Mail etc use.They were repairing them for people,but cheaper now to make here.Problem is they cant get staff.They even offered me good money working just 8 hours Sat and Sun rest of week off,its just up the road as well.Machines easy to fix etc,but i turned them down.I actually felt a bit guilty as i could of helped them get away and it will create local jobs,and they were great about the money and saying yes to just two days a week and call out.No point me doing any work though with the Lifetime Allowance etc on pensions.

[DoINeedOne]

Abit random but have you ever wondered what's inside BAT's Vuse Vapour products, not alot really 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was offered a job yesterday for a smallish company,they have won a big contract onshoring the production of those metal parcel trolleys Royal Mail etc use.They were repairing them for people,but cheaper now to make here.Problem is they cant get staff.They even offered me good money working just 8 hours Sat and Sun rest of week off,its just up the road as well.Machines easy to fix etc,but i turned them down.I actually felt a bit guilty as i could of helped them get away and it will create local jobs,and they were great about the money and saying yes to just two days a week and call out.No point me doing any work though with the Lifetime Allowance etc on pensions.

You should re-consider taking that job, I think. You would be really helpful getting a firm like that on its running legs. Don't worry about the extra cash, just spend it on fish n chips and a few bevvies mid week.

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You should re-consider taking that job, I think. You would be really helpful getting a firm like that on its running legs. Don't worry about the extra cash, just spend it on fish n chips and a few bevvies mid week.

I did think about it,but there is zero point me working now.Government freezing IHT ,pension lifetime allowance etc.Id have to work to simply consume more,and my time is worth 100x that.I also cant bring myself to do anything to help the country or government.They hate middle aged white blokes who do all the wealth creation.Maybe all those boat people they are bringing in on cutters as a taxi can do it instead.

Notice the NHS today forcing jabs on people or lose your job,incredible that it is even thought about.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just announced by macron. 

 

Germany be like:

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just announced by macron. 

 

Germany be like:

 

 

Excellent, France is that corrupt it will take 10 years to build one, have they started that one the Finnish were daft enough to buy never mind their own EPR.