Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Take it you just keep your wife's kegs in your drawer then ... which comes in handy sometimes!

 BK material as it'll force an earlier interest rate rise -

 

 

 

It should do....but will it.

This is great depression collapse stuff here, if they raise there's a lot of people screwed.  If the dont raise there are even more people screwed.

They should have dont it post 2008 after preparing the ground for what would likely happen.

Now the train is off the tracks and careering towards the school playground just as the playtime bell is ringing.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Why does the BoE need another currency are they trying to tell us the one they are meant to be looking after is not very good.

And if that ones not very good why would their next one be any better.

When they release it do all the members of the ruling party get a load for free, and then us plebs get to bid it up thus making them rich.

All these currencies what can ultimately be increased with the click of a button seems shitter than the current system, and only good for the people who get in early. The latter being like the UK housing market.

Just rhetorical questions, no need to answer!

 

I understand you weren't expecting answers... but i've heard that the new school syllabus will soon be teaching that 'Digital is more Environmental', plus I thought that our paper notes were now full of cocaine and Covid (...C Whitty enters the chat, science is settled et al!!)... Anyway just saying looks to me that the argument against that 'old colonial legacy' paper money is now pretty overwhelming!?!?! 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

It should do....but will it.

This is great depression collapse stuff here, if they raise there's a lot of people screwed.  If the dont raise there are even more people screwed.

They should have dont it post 2008 after preparing the ground for what would likely happen.

Now the train is off the tracks and careering towards the school playground just as the playtime bell is ringing.

From all the commentators who've called for a BK, they've all said that the FED will ignore inflation claiming its temporary, then they realise its not ... and raise far quicker than they predicted.

Surely the people on here hoping or making calls for a BK should be happy with such news.

If this was a drop in inflation then that would be bad for those of us needing/hoping/wanting a BK.

[ThoughtCriminal]

22 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I would once again like to thank everyone here for helping prepare for the worse/best case scenario we see unfolding before our very eyes.

Hear hear. 

 

Without getting all "Yas are me best fucking pals and i love you all!", I appreciate this place so much just because its the only place i can go where people arent consumer zombies trapped in the matrix. 

 

Everyone i know is a normie with zero fucking clue whats happening and whats potentially coming down the road.

 

Those two scenes in Margin Call and The Big Short where they're reflecting on whats coming and how barely anyone realises, that hits home now. 

 

Sometimes its enough to know youre not mad and there are others who also get it. 

 

Anyway, thats enough of that before i start hugging you all and piss myself. 

[CVG]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Im going to buy some barrick and Yamana gold shares today, any other suggestions, this insanity is going to get worse so want some as a hedge

Exchange rate fees give me ulcers so just spray and pray with a balance of GDX and GDXJ. Not advice obviously.

[Noallegiance]

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

It should do....but will it.

This is great depression collapse stuff here, if they raise there's a lot of people screwed.  If the dont raise there are even more people screwed.

They should have dont it post 2008 after preparing the ground for what would likely happen.

Now the train is off the tracks and careering towards the school playground just as the playtime bell is ringing.

Do you think they will ever do a "Chernobyl" style dramatisation?

"CPI 6.2%, not great not terrible"

"western economies do not blow up!"

etc

[DurhamBorn]

Should add my interest rate target on the 10 year is 8.2% ,an outlier at double figures.

Rates should be 4% here in the UK now.They arent stealing cash savings,hardly anyone has any,they are stealing peoples labour by transferring it to the state.Direct transfers,and its getting to bad that anyone not on the state teat is stuffed.When they increased Universal Credit for people on £50k with kids its a direct transfer from someone single working full time on £20k pa.

Next step is lowering consumption from the plebs because they will point the economy at investing in "green" instead.

Its a full on war between the government and anyone not on bennies or state wages/pensions.Distribution cycle.

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

They've only just secured a $25mil credit facility, yet were still so desparate for cash they placed for another $20mil at 32% discount. Even though it seems almost impossible at this point, I suspect their problems at Tucano are bigger than they've reported so far.

They are currently producing gold at the cost of $2500/oz and are hoping to get it down to $2000/oz down the road. That's a Tesla-worthy business model so who knows, maybe the share price chart will also become Tesla-esque.

How are they even allowed to do something so detrimental to the price without consulting shareholders, and/or offering them the option to buy at the discounted price?

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Should add my interest rate target on the 10 year is 8.2% ,an outlier at double figures.

Rates should be 4% here in the UK now.They arent stealing cash savings,hardly anyone has any,they are stealing peoples labour by transferring it to the state.Direct transfers,and its getting to bad that anyone not on the state teat is stuffed.When they increased Universal Credit for people on £50k with kids its a direct transfer from someone single working full time on £20k pa.

Next step is lowering consumption from the plebs because they will point the economy at investing in "green" instead.

Its a full on war between the government and anyone not on bennies or state wages/pensions.Distribution cycle.

 

I seem unable to copy tweets, but this bloke seems to be onto something -

 

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I dont think they do. I view the system as being built on fear. Fear of being caught, fear of being fined etc. As long as you dont take the mickey I reckon you can get away with most things

...or alternatively if you want the state fully 'off your back', why not self-identity as Romany Gypsie!?

[belfastchild]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Couldnt you N Irish, just emigrate to the south ... fill out the appropriate forms for HMRC that you're a non resident.

Now i realise you'd the only be allowed to spend 90 days in the UK, but how would they know .. unless of course they bring back border checks!

Have you seen the tax rates down south? ;-)

If hard brexit Id just have two separate businesses, one in the north for uk/ni work, one in the south for the rest of the world.

Tax rates are high but when you see that one of my mates in an absolute mansion pays less in property tax, bin charges, water charges etc than I pay for a 3 bed bungalow in rates...

Ive an Irish passport so can travel anywhere, can work anywhere (within reason) so semi retired plan was to get out of here for 3-6 months of the year but covid put paid to that (or my resistance to having the vaccine having already had covid, does).

[JMD]

4 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

If you've ever logged on to the HMRC gateway, you can see that they are linking you to your accounts with private banks.  It's still not perfect, but it's definitely happening.

Glad to hear it's not perfect - at least not yet, gives me hope that it may ultimately fail.                                                    They have been sharing our data between departments and agencies for years, started back in the 90's, but often it is for no good reason, so always felt suspicious to me.                                                                                                 Actually, now I come to think about it, why couldn't the HMRC Gateway system morph into a future CBDC? After all the infrastructure and security is already there.

[ThoughtCriminal]

29 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Do you think they will ever do a "Chernobyl" style dramatisation?

"CPI 6.2%, not great not terrible"

"western economies do not blow up!"

etc

Theres inflation everywhere comrade. 

 

"No there fucking isnt! You understand?!?!" 😂😂😂

[AWW]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

£50k pa is a good family income. If people need subsidy on that sort of salary, especially if over two wages and with half tax free, then the system is broken.

No it's not. It's only £3k a month in your hand. Doesn't leave much after rent/mortgage, council tax, utility bills, food and clothing. In fact, wouldn't even cover our outgoings (London, renting).

And yes, the system is broken and has been for some time.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Perfect meme for a day like this.......... 

[ThoughtCriminal]

The man has a point. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

33 minutes ago, AWW said:

No it's not. It's only £3k a month in your hand. Doesn't leave much after rent/mortgage, council tax, utility bills, food and clothing. In fact, wouldn't even cover our outgoings (London, renting).

And yes, the system is broken and has been for some time.

£3,400 per month if split over two wages. Plus whatever basic non means tested child benefit is. Although I realise that is now means tested if you're on six figures. It isn't poverty line. I did also caveat that this applied in most of the country. Renting a three bed home in London is going to make that difficult.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hear hear. 

 

Without getting all "Yas are me best fucking pals and i love you all!", I appreciate this place so much just because its the only place i can go where people arent consumer zombies trapped in the matrix. 

 

Everyone i know is a normie with zero fucking clue whats happening and whats potentially coming down the road.

 

Those two scenes in Margin Call and The Big Short where they're reflecting on whats coming and how barely anyone realises, that hits home now. 

 

Sometimes its enough to know youre not mad and there are others who also get it. 

 

Anyway, thats enough of that before i start hugging you all and piss myself. 

Bit gay, mate.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Take it you keep your wife's kegs in your drawer then ... which comes in handy sometimes!

 BK material as it'll force an earlier interest rate rise -

 

 

 

July 2022 for a rate rise...after they've stolen 20% of peoples savings.

 

These criminals must be brought to justice.

[ThoughtCriminal]

129 seconds of gold from Stan Druckenmiller. 

 

Truth bomb after truth bomb. 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Renting a three bed home in London is going to make that difficult.

I hear this sort of thing a lot. Like living in a modest flat in a MoR part of the city where you were born and bred is somehow extravagant. London is a perfect demonstration of the broken system. The place where the funny money is created and first flows to is the place where the effects are felt most.

I'd be quite interested to know if geography plays a part in DB's mapping out of liquidity flows.

[jamtomorrow]

Aaaaand some more BK fuel (as if we needed it) ...

 

[Harley]

Good interview with David Hunter.  Very fluent and clear.  It feels we're getting close and I feel comfortable with his big picture.  He starts talking about a 5% dip.  This is probably where he's getting it wrong - too granular - he should stick to the big picture.

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season3/david-hunter-coming-stock-market-bust/

 

[Majorpain]

6 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Aaaaand some more BK fuel (as if we needed it) ...

 

"While more than 90% of Evergrande's creditors are from China itself, there are also many international creditors from the US and Europe. International investors alone have put around $23.67 billion into 23 bonds and three large loans issued by the lurching property developer. Among the already known institutional investors are well-known addresses such as Fidelity, Blackrock, UBS, Ashmore Group, Prudential, HSBC, Pictet, Vontobel, BNP and Allianz. However, by far not all international investors are known so far, but only 148 investors with increased reporting obligations, such as fund companies, who have invested a total of 3.44 billion US dollars. There could still be some negative surprises here."

I still subscribe to the view that the CCP will bail out the local creditors and stuff the foreign ones, but it is interesting how much of it is held domestically.  Quote taken from great link below.

http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/download/20211024_DMSA_EVG_RR_en.pdf