Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Took off from Dublin airport last weekend and looked down at the beautiful new second runway. Now Ireland has Nimbyism down to an art form, and it's not as built up around the airport as Heathrow is, but somehow they got it done. I know that the airport authority has been land banking around it for decades. The runways are not quite as long as Heathow, but the effectively Dublin now has the same aircraft capacity as Heathrow, which is absolutely bonkers. And since Boris sees fit to rule us by fiat like a mediavel king, he could order it at the stroke of a pen.

Dublin

Heathrow

Or they could build a high speed train line between Heathrow and Gatwick!

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

There is a 100% chance that any person under 30 putting money in a pension will not see any of it back.  My expectation is that either having a private pension means you get no other state benefits (so in effect no, you are not getting your money back, you are being taxed 100%) or they will do what other countries have already done, take the whole pension pot of real investments and give you 'bonds' in return which will decay to zero value.  Oh, and I also expect within 10 years that all pension schemes MUST be carbon neutral, i.e. must invest in green shit, which mean no, you won't have a pension.

Well that's my parade well and truly pissed on.🙄😂

 

You make a good point though. Is the tax advantage just short termism on my part? Does my nephew end up with 100% of fuck all and plenty of it?

 

Applies to all of us really.

 

Maybe we have to re-evaluate and change our criteria from being what we think the best investment is to one of minimising the government's capability to control our money and fuck us.

 

I'm glad you pissed on my parade. I think you're probably right.

[DurhamBorn]

Surely they read this thread?,they even use our term,disinflationary,should send them a flippin invoice.Of course they missed 300% in potash and 70% in oilies,uranium etc,you need to spot it before it happens.Someone should message Jeremy and get him to credit our work though.Maybe this thread should go into stealth,it was started to help the little man/woman and bring together people who could add experience,not the establishment,even if they are singing now from our roadmap.Of course they havent yet got to what it all means in reality,a distribution cycle.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/12/complacent-political-leaders-have-blindsided-surging-inflation/

We appear to be in the midst of a seminal change, marking the passage from a disinflationary to an inflationary age

At the same time, Western economies are trying to reduce their dependence on China and become more self-sufficient; in itself that will be inflationary. And finally there are the costs of going green, which will add to energy bills for decades to come.

[M S E Refugee]

Has anyone got a Freetrade account?

The past few days have been awful, taking ages to deposit money and ages to buy shares and also the App keeps crashing.

I'm very close to sacking them off.

[DurhamBorn]

On pensions for youngsters i wouldnt.Id use ISAs and then at say 45 when they have closer visability to access age they use the ISA to live on and divert 100% of taxable earnings to the SIPP.Gets you the same tax relief,but protects you from goal post moving.My partner is doing the same now,100% of taxable earnings into her SIPP.

[MrXxxx]

Anyone got a Barclays Smart investors S&S Isa/Stock trading account?...what do you think/how does it compare to others i.e. iweb/HL/AJ Bell etc; please comment only on the Barclays specifically rather than recommending the others, thanks :-)

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Or they could build a high speed train line between Heathrow and Gatwick!

They really should expand Birmingham  International. There’s loads of land around there. Then use the High Speed line they’re building to shuttle people to London at a discounted price (£20 per head max). 

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Has anyone got a Freetrade account?

The past few days have been awful, taking ages to deposit money and ages to buy shares and also the App keeps crashing.

I'm very close to sacking them off.

I have one for just buying and selling the odd stuff I cant get in ajbell easily (nutrien, yamana) etc
Dont check it every day but waiting for yamana to go green (-6%) to sell as Ive already bought it (I think) in my ajbell sipp.

Sold my nutrien last night and cashed out the cash I had in them, so will wait for that to clear. I just got a bad feeling about it and if I needed to get money out quick I couldnt.  Sold hemo last week for a minute quid or two profit but the time it executed it was a 10 quid loss.... first loss Ive made on there (well other than yamana of course but bought lower in sipp)

Have always seen them like P2P etc, theres a time to use them and then a time to get out - Im probably always early and could be talking complete balls though ;-)

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Anyone got a Barclays Smart investors S&S Isa/Stock trading account?...what do you think/how does it compare to others i.e. iweb/HL/AJ Bell etc; please comment only on the Barclays specifically rather than recommending the others, thanks :-)

Just tried to edit this but it wouldn't let me, so what about the HSBC Invest Direct/Invest Direct plus account as well?...from what I can see the HSBC plus account a) offers US/European market trading as well at no extra cost [no even possible with Barclays, and b) ability to hold a Euro/US$ settlement account, so I assume saves on Forex fees?

[kibuc]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thing is, if I have a choice of any airport for London I choose Heathrow. It's quickest to central London by far, and of course has all the connections. I avoid Stansted as it is as it's a pain to get to. Third runway at Heathrow for me, hand out free earplugs in west London.

Interesting, as I've always enjoyed the relative ease of getting to Stansted from North and Central London (lovely Stansted Express from Liverpool Street and Tottenham Hale, the latter accessible via fast and frequent Victoria Line), as opposed to spending more than an hour on Piccadily Line to get to Heathrow.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

On pensions for youngsters i wouldnt.Id use ISAs and then at say 45 when they have closer visability to access age they use the ISA to live on and divert 100% of taxable earnings to the SIPP.Gets you the same tax relief,but protects you from goal post moving.My partner is doing the same now,100% of taxable earnings into her SIPP.

I agree - give them the choice. When we can get at the cash in the LISAs we've opened for the kids, it'll be up to them what they use it for. If they wanted to, they could even put it in a SIPP at that point, so they'll have had a 25% top up on the way into the LISA and can then have another 20% (or 40, or 45, depending on their tax band) when it hits their SIPP.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Interesting, as I've always enjoyed the relative ease of getting to Stansted from North and Central London (lovely Stansted Express from Liverpool Street and Tottenham Hale, the latter accessible via fast and frequent Victoria Line), as opposed to spending more than an hour on Piccadily Line to get to Heathrow.

They should all have mainline trains going to them so there is no need to go into London.

As per Amsterdam, where the only problem is getting your bits grabbed by the Cloggy Securicor men.

[M S E Refugee]

14 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I have one for just buying and selling the odd stuff I cant get in ajbell easily (nutrien, yamana) etc
Dont check it every day but waiting for yamana to go green (-6%) to sell as Ive already bought it (I think) in my ajbell sipp.

Sold my nutrien last night and cashed out the cash I had in them, so will wait for that to clear. I just got a bad feeling about it and if I needed to get money out quick I couldnt.  Sold hemo last week for a minute quid or two profit but the time it executed it was a 10 quid loss.... first loss Ive made on there (well other than yamana of course but bought lower in sipp)

Have always seen them like P2P etc, theres a time to use them and then a time to get out - Im probably always early and could be talking complete balls though ;-)

I withdrew my money from Trading 212 last year due to a couple of YouTubers putting doubt in my mind.

[DoINeedOne]

Seems Netherlands and Austria are going full retard hope other don’t start following

[AWW]

40 minutes ago, Hancock said:

They should all have mainline trains going to them so there is no need to go into London.

London needs a ring railway. Moving around London (which are going to be more commonplace if Covid work practises have any staying power) is far too difficult - everything is organised with the aim of getting people into and out of Central and the City.  For example, I live 10 miles due north of the City. I can get there in 30 minutes on a train, and a similar time on a bicycle.  But the 5 mile journey west to take the kids swimming would take almost an hour on public transport - twice as long for a journey half the length! It's literally quicker to walk.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Maybe we have to re-evaluate and change our criteria from being what we think the best investment is to one of minimising the government's capability to control our money and fuck us.

 

Welcome to my world!  My new normal of two years and counting.

[Harley]

If folk are unhealthily nervous atm, maybe that's a sign they could better button down their investment strategy/approach.  It's a game of relativity, of probabilities, and of risk, not of absolutes.  David Hunter's interview was very timely.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Seems Netherlands and Austria are going full retard hope other don’t start following

[JMD]

Some finance news chiming with thread discussions around increasing dominance of private equity and of institutional investment in residential property. So here it is Atom Bank partnering with Landbay, whereby the private Atom bank is channelling £500million into a P2P lender because the bank's institutional clients are seeking more access to BTL property.                                                                                                                                                          Btw - @DurhamBornplease look away lest you are offended! - Atom bank happens to be based in Durham(!!!). But more significantly it's a privately owned, tech focused bank, ie app based/no branches. I also note Atom's biggest investor is BBVA, Spain's 2nd largest bank behind Santander, and is yet another tech focused bank, and expanding globally, and which although it has a stock listing I think it is only nominally a public entity? Anyway definitely a trend happening here.                                                                                              https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2021/11/08/atom-bank-strikes-500m-buy-to-let-funding-partnership-with-landbay/

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I need the hive-mind's assistance if possible.

 

I've just discovered that my sister has nearly 20k in a child's savings account for my nephew and it's earning nothing. 🤦

 

I realise that I'll be held responsible for any losses, but I can't just watch it being annihilated by inflation.

 

He's only 14 but has a keen interest in finance (put it all in bitcoin he said 🙄😂) so I was going to open a junior ISA for him.

 

I seem to recall someone on here discussing investment vehicles they had for the their kids, Sancho maybe??

 

If anyone knows of a better route than junior ISA I'd be grateful for any insight.

 

 

I'd opt for the junior ISA.AS others have said,SIPP's carry access risk.

Far better to have it available to help him through Uni or setu up a business or get a trade.

 

17 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

@PrincessDrac

Your brother(?) must be pleased with his FRES move in at 800? As stated earlier in the thread, I loaded up more when it dipped just below in the 700 mark. Decent run the last couple of days.

I’ve de-leveraged a bit today, ready to throw back in if there’s a pull back, or just to just add to the cash aside at the mo and see how the rest of the year plays out. Still got a decent wedge still allocated in it however. Silver may be on a run from here.

Sold some Fres Nov calls for 28 pence.They were worth about 2p when a I last looked a few weeks back...happy times.

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

For the information as is prsently available, I'd be very happy to see it work lower for another 15% pullback, as DH suggests, and I'd reevaluate what information I think is not in the price at that point. But like @sancho panza, I'm still currently long, and 10%-15% pullbacks backtests well in bull markets. And as Sancho often points out, oil tends to spike into crashes, not pull back slowly into them. If there is a bust next year, I suspect oil will play a part in busting it. If there is a bust with oil back to $25, it'll be a generational buying opportunity. If the crap gets cleaned out of the financial system, there will be no more impediment to a long bull run, because the supply/demand problems we are getting a taste of now aren't going to go away because of a financial deleveraging event. 

From what I've seen ref your line on oil supply/demand,you've certainly beaten the likes of Art Berman hands down while I've been watching.No mean feat in itself.

Ref your point on recessions,I have bored with this over the years and I'll dig out the post you refer to.There are issues in terms of the way GDP is calcuatled and the deflator that's used so the measurements aren't perfet but as you highlight oil normally spikes during the beginnign of the recession which may only become appranet in terms of it's start time several months after when they finish making their adjustments to GDP figure.s

Long story short,I'm not sure we're finsihed on the oil price and wihtout that topping out,I'd be careful moving short.

As you,we remain net long by some margin,pull backs in things like BP @£3-£3.20 would get bought on my part.I started buying BP options at 260 way back,next pull back I bought was £2.80 and then £3.We're still in an uptrend and the story has gotten even better for the black stuff in terms of Saudi spare capacity/US shale and world demand.I don't think $85 is enough to tip us into recession.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Seems Netherlands and Austria are going full retard hope other don’t start following

Who knew?

[Noallegiance]

40 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Linky

Just how a lockdown of unvaccinated people might be controlled remains hazy. Mückstein repeatedly failed to answer how this might be realistic. In theory, spot checks would be carried out by health authority personnel and police, with people required to show their vaccine passports when requested to do so.

Herr Johnson gonna love that implemented.

Papers please

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Linky

Just how a lockdown of unvaccinated people might be controlled remains hazy.....

 

[Noallegiance]

In other news...

 

[Barnsey]

This complicates matters.