Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks also to those who made me realise I could move my SIPP to HL for more choice, especially on the TSX.

HL?  IMO not good enough for international.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Take it you keep your wife's kegs in your drawer then ... which comes in handy sometimes!

 BK material as it'll force an earlier interest rate rise -

 

 

 

The 1940s is when they really inflated away the debt!

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

There are going to be masses of skint people in their mid 40s because government policy is now to fill them with free money,then remove it.

Benefits/state pensions will be eroded by `real` inflation whilst appearing to keep up with CPI. They will all be indebted and so won't have any `choice` about retiring...as they will a) have mortgages to service, or b) have rent to pay to the future insurance BTL landlords...either way the governments `friends` will `make out like bandits`.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Probably nothing again but..

 

Technically, silver currently looks more appealing to me than gold.

[Hardhat]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

No it's not. It's only £3k a month in your hand. Doesn't leave much after rent/mortgage, council tax, utility bills, food and clothing. In fact, wouldn't even cover our outgoings (London, renting).

And yes, the system is broken and has been for some time.

Not terrible, not great, no help from anyone.

Squeezed middle.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Benefits for the rich

 

 

This is the point I am packing up and leaving. This is yet another wealth redistribution tactic and the tories are collecting everyone's money the debt and housing.

Agree, they are giving everyones taxes to indebted others from whom their `friends` can steal it from....I can understand why so many fifty somethings have given up, and decided to retire early so that they don't have to see their taxes stolen.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Good thinking. Sometimes that might not be convenient. So if the meter reading is 8555 you can't easily transpose. In that case your finger slipped on the keypad. 8 is immediately above 5 so you could key 8855 by mistake.

"I`m sorry but your call centre operative obviously didn't understand my English accent" :-)

[Hancock]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

Technically, silver currently looks more appealing to me than gold.

Feels like grabbing pennies from in front of a steam roller by putting more money in at this moment in time.

Silver is only up 1.2% as of 20:36.

Need to get back to chilling and waiting for the BK!

[Noallegiance]

US 10yr up 7.87% to 1.563

US 30yr up 5.34% to 1.918

...in one day.

Seems large.

[sancho panza]

On 09/11/2021 at 21:04, DurhamBorn said:

Notice the NHS today forcing jabs on people or lose your job,incredible that it is even thought about.

Yeah if they carry throuh with it,I'll be jobless in April but I remain unvaxxed and unrepentant.

Heard a nurse on Talk Radio saying how's she works A&E/ICU and has seen enough adverse effects coming in to convince her not to have it.She said she was a single Mum and if she was one of the unlucky ones,then who'd raise her kids.My sentiments exactly.

I don't judge people who have it,each to their own.But it's worrying that Javid hasn't ruled out expanding the clot shot mandate to other industries.I was thinking of doing teaching when the paramedicing comes to an end but after listening to that imbecile I've decided my next part time career will be something where I can pay the bills with minimal interraction from the gubbermint.

I've also determined that I will minimise my tax footprint in the spirit of your teachings.It's the only way to fight the parasites in Westminster.

Here it is

 

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hear hear. 

 

Without getting all "Yas are me best fucking pals and i love you all!", I appreciate this place so much just because its the only place i can go where people arent consumer zombies trapped in the matrix. 

 

Everyone i know is a normie with zero fucking clue whats happening and whats potentially coming down the road.

 

Those two scenes in Margin Call and The Big Short where they're reflecting on whats coming and how barely anyone realises, that hits home now. 

 

Sometimes its enough to know youre not mad and there are others who also get it. 

 

Anyway, thats enough of that before i start hugging you all and piss myself. 

I'm still long the market,but you've got to know where the exit is.....

from kaplan.

[Bricks & Mortar]

Don Durrett analysis of the mighty Great Panther.

Posting because they've been a talked about share round these parts.  And also, for the 'rubber band' theme.

I don't own them.  I probably won't buy them.  DYOR, natch.
 

 

[sancho panza]

I kinwo a few pages back some one was psoting DH saying airliens a good place to be as oil pops down.

BA balance sheet-as is often said-'a pensions deficit with an airline attached'

Total equity/Total long term debt=11.9%............................

Net income last year -6923

[SpectrumFX]

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I kinwo a few pages back some one was psoting DH saying airliens a good place to be as oil pops down.

BA balance sheet-as is often said-'a pensions deficit with an airline attached'

Total equity/Total long term debt=11.9%............................

Net income last year -6923

As I recall Benjamin Graham said in the Intelligent Investor that airlines never really make money in the long run.

Maybe that view is out of date, but he put me right off buying any.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah if they carry throuh with it,I'll be jobless in April but I remain unvaxxed and unrepentant.

The compensation you eventually get will more than make up for it.

Was a lady who worked as a carer on ITV this morning that got sacked for refusing the vaxx, obviously they got her in on the presumption she was some thick minimum wage earner from Hull, but her points were very well put together and she made the govt look vile. (not that its too hard).

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Feels like grabbing pennies from in front of a steam roller by putting more money in at this moment in time.

Silver is only up 1.2% as of 20:36.

Need to get back to chilling and waiting for the BK!

I'm looking at pulling the sails in a bit and/or having the bug out routes ready on the basis of the Hunter interview I posted.  The narrative felt about right to me.  

PS:  I don't understand the "silver is only up..." comment.  I wasn't being a historian or day trader.

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm looking at pulling the sails in a bit and/or having the bug out routes ready on the basis of the Hunter interview I posted.  The narrative felt about right to me.  

PS:  I don't understand the "silver is only up..." comment.  I wasn't being a historian or day trader.

It was up by 3.5% after the 6.2% inflation news was released ... causing some minor hysteria on here!

And the former comment, i bought 4k worth of shares yesterday, and in hindsight i see the down side as being far greater than the sums i could make in a so called melt up.

My SIPP went above 160k for the first time today, with just 16k being in cash ... tempted to sell up so its 50% cash in the coming months ... just don't really know what to sell! 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's a lot better than what I had! Who do you recco for international?

SIPPs are hard.  II worth a look (esp. forex balances, more exchanges, and market access).  DYOR.

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, Hancock said:

It was up by 3.5% after the 6.2% inflation news was released ... causing some minor hysteria on here!

And the former comment, i bought 4k worth of shares yesterday, and in hindsight i see the down side as being far greater than the sums i could make in a so called melt up.

My SIPP went above 160k for the first time today, with just 16k being in cash ... tempted to sell up so its 50% cash in the coming months ... just don't really know what to sell! 

OK.  I was referring to the commodity rather than miners.  I don't care about daily moves unless they are part of a bigger play.  I think similar in that I was underwhelmed on a risk reward basis listening to David Hunter's projected final top.  I'd rather leave that on the table or at best do a tight trade.

I expect everything to get smashed down in a BK.  My issue in prepping is more where to hide as I'll just cut across the board (or hedge).  Maybe bonds (etfs not engaged in security lending) for one last hurrah, and PMs (to avoid institutional risk) which I expect to bounce back.  Maybe a bit of crypto too given I expect its utility will be valued in a crunch.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's a lot better than what I had! Who do you recco for international?

My main criteria was low charges/market access, so I chose II/Sipp and HL/ISA. I'm happy with II because it holds most of my invested wealth so low charges are of greater importance for me, with market access secondary. However I do find HL limited for Scandi/Asia/Japan stocks, so I may switch to another ISA if it had similar low charges but a better stock market access. Also need to be careful as some providers state they give access to various markets, but sometimes this comes only via phone dealing, which frequently comes with an additional hefty £50 charge per buy/sell!

[Talking Monkey]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are removing incentives to work in many areas.Its very sinister.Take Universal Credit.Now families earning up to £50k can get it (thats if they are getting £750 a month for rent in it) there is no point saving because it stops your claim if you have over £16k.

So we now have masses of people in their prime working years where there is no incentive to increase hours and/or save.The flip side of course is that in due course you end up with these same people hitting say 47,kids go over 18 and they get no benefits,but have not bought a house so have full rent,no savings,and 20 years until state pension.

Most of this is caused by central banks monetising debt for government.Instead of private savings creating capital for the economy,the central bank is now doing it and passing to government.We are now communist in all but name in many areas.

There are going to be masses of skint people in their mid 40s because government policy is now to fill them with free money,then remove it.

It is very sinister and makes me wonder are confiscatory policies coming a few years down the line in order to help keep the show on the road a little longer. Will our sipps and isas be taking a haircut at some point. 

[Sugarlips]

15 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

It is very sinister and makes me wonder are confiscatory policies coming a few years down the line in order to help keep the show on the road a little longer. Will our sipps and isas be taking a haircut at some point. 

Direct Theft is the most likely way for those of us on here to own nothing and be happy so yes, that makes sense..

[wherebee]

52 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

It is very sinister and makes me wonder are confiscatory policies coming a few years down the line in order to help keep the show on the road a little longer. Will our sipps and isas be taking a haircut at some point. 

I have assumed this since the GFC.  Diversify, both in terms of asset formats and locations.

[jamtomorrow]

12 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I have assumed this since the GFC.  Diversify, both in terms of asset formats and locations.

I'm increasingly working on the basis that if you can't deny it or hide it, it's not really "yours".

I'm still paying into the SIPP, but not as much as I could. The earliest I can go into drawdown is 2031, which is beyond the event horizon where "normal physics" applies.

The tax advantages are sorely tempting, but SIPPs do increasingly resemble a honeytrap with current direction of travel.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Also need to be careful as some providers state they give access to various markets, but sometimes this comes only via phone dealing, which frequently comes with an additional hefty £50 charge per buy/sell!

Yes, and those who only offer CDIs on the LSE, not real foreign market access.  Liquidity, counter party risk, voting, trading windows, etc.  Never say never but it's not the same.