Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I know theres a few sat in cash on here and having FOMO worries, Charlie Munger quotes on waiting for the right deal:

 

"It takes character to sit there with all that cash & do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities."

"The way to get rich is to keep millions on your checking A/C in case a great deal comes along."

 

Although its worrying that he doesnt consider millions in your checking account to be rich. 😒😂

I've just been reading permabear Hussman's latest downdate and he's taken to quoting permabear Grantham, along a similar line:

Quote

I’ve been very clear about what I consider a definition of success – and that is only that, sooner or later, you will have made money to have sidestepped the bubble phase.

Hussman does his usual she cannae take any more captain, it's all going to blow on the figures stuff but ends with

Quote

 

Emphatically, nothing in our discipline presumes that this bubble cannot continue. We’ll respond to observable valuations, market internals, and other factors as they change, and an improvement in market internals here could defer our immediate (though not longer term) concerns. Still, in a bubble that’s already “checked all the boxes,” this may a particularly opportune moment to remember that, for disciplined investors, risk management is generous.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211108/

 

Maybe he's started reading Dave?

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[Harley]

Nat gas down hard today as part of a multi-day pullback so far this month.  Both ETNs down about 10% each.

[HousePriceMania]

Who shorted Tesla on Friday 

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Nat gas down hard today as part of a multi-day pullback so far this month.  Both ETNs down about 10% each.

Have a look at the commodity prices on

Big spikes on all of them, some of them have already collapsed back, looks like 2008 all over again

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Transitory inflation anyone ?

If the economy goes down the pan we're seeing -ve rates....

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

This is the big threat to integrated oil companies.Windmills etc they can outfund any renewable companies,but massive nuclear investment would hit gas hard.Its the reason BP etc cheer on windmills etc.Its base load that will kill them.

If you dont want massive nuclear then it has to be hydrogen ,but it seems our civil servants are dragging their feet.We always said on here uranium was the real oil company hedge.

Im surprised Harmony Gold dont mention Uranium more given how much of it is sat on their tailings and comes out with the gold.

 

[Majorpain]

59 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Have a look at the commodity prices on

Big spikes on all of them, some of them have already collapsed back, looks like 2008 all over again

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Transitory inflation anyone ?

If the economy goes down the pan we're seeing -ve rates....

One key thing this time around is how reliant on shipping the world is, and how insanely expensive it still is to ship from China.  Current values are skewed due to pandemic PPE, but i think its fair to say that China is exporting about double what it was 2008 vs 2021.

Its going to take a lot more work to onshore production of everything, but its too late for that as anecdotally there is a fair amount of demand destruction going on in the real economy.  Fuel prices alone have taken a fair chunk out of the average workers discretionary spending.

[Bobthebuilder]

50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is the big threat to integrated oil companies.Windmills etc they can outfund any renewable companies,but massive nuclear investment would hit gas hard.Its the reason BP etc cheer on windmills etc.Its base load that will kill them.

If you dont want massive nuclear then it has to be hydrogen ,but it seems our civil servants are dragging their feet.We always said on here uranium was the real oil company hedge.

Im surprised Harmony Gold dont mention Uranium more given how much of it is sat on their tailings and comes out with the gold.

 

Hydrogen will defiantly kick off. It's the easiest route for the government to go greenish without everybody changing their boiler, and the infrastructure is already in place. Gas industry magazines are full of Hydrogen articles every month and have been for ages, It's pretty much guaranteed I think.

Wish I had bought more Rolls-Royce now. I have got plenty of Harmony, let's hope they get an extra bid on the Uranium.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who shorted Tesla on Friday 

I talked about it, then bottled it. 

 

If anyone wants me I'll be outside with a bottle of whisky and a revolver. 😒

[DurhamBorn]

43 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

One key thing this time around is how reliant on shipping the world is, and how insanely expensive it still is to ship from China.  Current values are skewed due to pandemic PPE, but i think its fair to say that China is exporting about double what it was 2008 vs 2021.

Its going to take a lot more work to onshore production of everything, but its too late for that as anecdotally there is a fair amount of demand destruction going on in the real economy.  Fuel prices alone have taken a fair chunk out of the average workers discretionary spending.

I was offered a job yesterday for a smallish company,they have won a big contract onshoring the production of those metal parcel trolleys Royal Mail etc use.They were repairing them for people,but cheaper now to make here.Problem is they cant get staff.They even offered me good money working just 8 hours Sat and Sun rest of week off,its just up the road as well.Machines easy to fix etc,but i turned them down.I actually felt a bit guilty as i could of helped them get away and it will create local jobs,and they were great about the money and saying yes to just two days a week and call out.No point me doing any work though with the Lifetime Allowance etc on pensions.

[DoINeedOne]

Abit random but have you ever wondered what's inside BAT's Vuse Vapour products, not alot really 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was offered a job yesterday for a smallish company,they have won a big contract onshoring the production of those metal parcel trolleys Royal Mail etc use.They were repairing them for people,but cheaper now to make here.Problem is they cant get staff.They even offered me good money working just 8 hours Sat and Sun rest of week off,its just up the road as well.Machines easy to fix etc,but i turned them down.I actually felt a bit guilty as i could of helped them get away and it will create local jobs,and they were great about the money and saying yes to just two days a week and call out.No point me doing any work though with the Lifetime Allowance etc on pensions.

You should re-consider taking that job, I think. You would be really helpful getting a firm like that on its running legs. Don't worry about the extra cash, just spend it on fish n chips and a few bevvies mid week.

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You should re-consider taking that job, I think. You would be really helpful getting a firm like that on its running legs. Don't worry about the extra cash, just spend it on fish n chips and a few bevvies mid week.

I did think about it,but there is zero point me working now.Government freezing IHT ,pension lifetime allowance etc.Id have to work to simply consume more,and my time is worth 100x that.I also cant bring myself to do anything to help the country or government.They hate middle aged white blokes who do all the wealth creation.Maybe all those boat people they are bringing in on cutters as a taxi can do it instead.

Notice the NHS today forcing jabs on people or lose your job,incredible that it is even thought about.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just announced by macron. 

 

Germany be like:

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just announced by macron. 

 

Germany be like:

 

 

Excellent, France is that corrupt it will take 10 years to build one, have they started that one the Finnish were daft enough to buy never mind their own EPR.

[Froggy2000]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I did think about it,but there is zero point me working now.Government freezing IHT ,pension lifetime allowance etc.Id have to work to simply consume more,and my time is worth 100x that.I also cant bring myself to do anything to help the country or government.They hate middle aged white blokes who do all the wealth creation.Maybe all those boat people they are bringing in on cutters as a taxi can do it instead.

Notice the NHS today forcing jabs on people or lose your job,incredible that it is even thought about.

I just liked Bobs comment above, because I agree with the sentiment and I actually quite like work if it's on my terms.  The way you put it though I really don't blame you.  In some ways I'd rather things collapse sooner rather than later so the next generation can rebuild in time to get the most out of their lives.  The way things are heading now it will either be full blown communism when the govt basically abolishes private property for the vast majority through taxes, or a massive backlash and civil war.  Paying these taxes now is a bit like signing our own death warrants.

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Abit random but have you ever wondered what's inside BAT's Vuse Vapour products, not alot really 

 

aha, semi shortage will stop me vaping.

Shipped dried tobacco will stop me smoking.

Greta et al will stop me gorging on meat.

Boris will stop me driving.

etc etc etc. Fookin' hell i best hurry up and die before i run out of things allowed.

 

[King of Fools]

23 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

aha, semi shortage will stop me vaping.

Shipped dried tobacco will stop me smoking.

Greta et al will stop me gorging on meat.

Boris will stop me driving.

etc etc etc. Fookin' hell i best hurry up and die before i run out of things allowed.

 

You’ll be able to fit in a crafty couple of extra wanks

[ThoughtCriminal]

51 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I did, been building a position for two weeks. It's gonna whipsaw both ways I think, I should take a slice

Motherfuc.......I mean, yaaaay! Happy for you! 😏😆

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They hate middle aged white blokes who do all the wealth creation. Maybe all those boat people they are bringing in on cutters as a taxi can do it instead.

I work all over the place, and the one thing you can be certain of when staying in a Premier Inn/Travelodge or so called workers hotels during the week, is that it must be close to 100% of the people staying there and getting back at around 5/6PM are white males.

Even when i worked in London on a building site, it was predominantly white males,  with blacks doing jobs such as security guards or taking people up and down the lift.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

 

History about to rhyme? 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Excellent, France is that corrupt it will take 10 years to build one, have they started that one the Finnish were daft enough to buy never mind their own EPR.

They did start it, but the only people to actually operate one are the Chinese.  I'm sure that's because they are great at building them and not because they have lax safety requirements, just like the USSR.   

"As of 2020 the project is more than five times over budget and years behind schedule. Various safety problems have been raised, including weakness in the steel used in the reactor.  On 29 June 2019, it was announced that the start-up was once again being pushed back, making it unlikely it could be started before the end of 2022."

"Unit 3 is an EPR reactor and has been under construction since 2005. The start of commercial operation was originally planned for May 2009^[3] but the project has been delayed and, as of August 2020, the latest estimate for start of regular production is February 2022"

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

I just liked Bobs comment above, because I agree with the sentiment and I actually quite like work if it's on my terms.  The way you put it though I really don't blame you.  In some ways I'd rather things collapse sooner rather than later so the next generation can rebuild in time to get the most out of their lives.  The way things are heading now it will either be full blown communism when the govt basically abolishes private property for the vast majority through taxes, or a massive backlash and civil war.  Paying these taxes now is a bit like signing our own death warrants.

When the govt are willing to hand over money to parents earning £50k per annum, then you know its gone seriously wrong ... i;ve no doubt parents bringing home 50k will struggle in many parts of the country, but that sort of income must put them in the top few percent of earners on planet earth. 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/09/parents-earning-50000-entitled-benefits-massive-expansion-welfare/

[Froggy2000]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

When the govt are willing to hand over money to parents earning £50k per annum, then you know its gone seriously wrong ... i;ve no doubt parents bringing home 50k will struggle in many parts of the country, but that sort of income must put them in the top few percent of earners on planet earth. 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/09/parents-earning-50000-entitled-benefits-massive-expansion-welfare/

Exactly.  I think its about time Atlas Shrugged.  Lets put our houses in order then make it happen.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who shorted Tesla on Friday 

Was it Elon Musk?