Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[CannonFodder]

I.ve noticed supermarkets are holding certain things steady - pint of beer . Milk bread. Bottle of wine as people watch these.

Larger items going up about 20 percent it seems the 3-4 pound things extra pound on the honey or coffee.

Smaller items appearing to doubling, the sub pound. My coleslaw tub for example. Its a double but most look at another 40p if they notice price at all. 

Perhaps my perception but interesting to see the tactics at play.

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Why?...am I missing a trick here OR is it because you are getting the tax refunded on overseas stock divis?

Just the normal tax relief you get on pension contributions.My partner got £4k of divs last year in her ISA.She pulled them out and put them in her SIPP and got £1k added from the government.She is going to jack in at 56 so has 11 or 12 years where she can pull £16700 a year tax free from her pension.She will empty it over those years and allow the ISA to build then and at 68 then kick her employer pension in and her state pension and her ISA divis.

[DurhamBorn]

45 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

The bit in bold I would be interested to know how are you going about this. I am 6 years short of the current NI contributions needed although I intend to extend this to 40, as I have a sneaky feeling they will extend it. My understanding was Under Class 2 you could, as an example, declare a few items sold on ebay on a tax return for I think about £140odd pounds fee (need to check) and HMRC will allocate your NI for that year. I could be wrong and member opinions on this would be helpful.

I used to do it every year and get a years stamp for £140 just tell them you sold a few items on Ebay.Now i claim specified adult childcare credits for free,look after grandkids.Im on 34 years now,but il keep claiming them because like you i think they might mess around with those years and 40 might get you the pension early or something.

[stoobs]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

I believe its always worth using your ISA allowance as a) it doesn't cost you anything, b) once the tax year has gone if its not used its lost, and c) you don't know financially whats around the corner...basically it gives you flexibility at no cost; if its in 'cash' rather than stocks it can sit in a brokers account without any annual fees, all you are losing is the basic interest on the capital which at the moment is nothing...if this bothers you buy low risk/low volatile investments in the S&S isa that are liquid; as long as they cover the brokers annual fee + inflation you are not at a loss.

NOTE Not financial advice, DYOR!

Also remember you can transfer between ISA types.

So if you would prefer it in the bank, chuck it in a cash ISA to grab your allowance.

Then a few years down the line if you decide to invest it, you can transfer some or all of that cash ISA to a shares ISA without affecting the tax wrapper (or the current year's ISA allowance).

[HousePriceMania]

 

Money became worth more in 2007....cant be having that now can we.

What a bunch of criminals **** run the world.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Sorry to quote myself but thought I should flesh the above out just a little bit further.

If you do something like this then you can invest in divi payers yielding around 5% on portfolio - if market goes up your total capital goes up and you collect the divi's less the cost of the insurance - if there is a BK you still collect the divi's (assuming no divi cuts) but your capital should remain fairly static as what you will lose on the capital will be offset by the gain on the short ETF (ETN in this case). As mentioned it won't be a perfect hedge but you can back test this by constructing your proposed hypothetical portfolio over the last 5 or 10 years and measure that against the performance of the ETN to work out how much you would need to purchase of this to achieve as close as possible 1:1 delta hedging.

 

I suppose you are using a 3x to reduce the stake in it? Just had a look at March 2020. The ETN went from £10 to near £28 almost tripling your money, while the FTSE dipped from about 7.5k to 5k losing a third.

  

[moneyscam]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

I suppose you are using a 3x to reduce the stake in it? Just had a look at March 2020. The ETN went from £10 to near £28 almost tripling your money, while the FTSE dipped from about 7.5k to 5k losing a third.

  

Yes exactly after back testing my portfolio against that I found that to be the closest delta hedge for my UK stocks. It depends a lot on how diversified your portfolio is, it wouldn't work well if you only had a couple of growth stocks for example.

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Yes exactly after back testing my portfolio against that I found that to be the closest delta hedge for my UK stocks. It depends a lot on how diversified your portfolio is, it wouldn't work well if you only had a couple of growth stocks for example.

Let us know when you buy then sell, timing looks all important on that one!

[JMD]

Some of those US senators and members of congress do like their shares, eg Nancy Pelosi bought 37Million dollars worth of tech stocks last year alone!! Details of what ones/amounts here for those interested...  https://housestockwatcher.com/               https://senatestockwatcher.com/

[moneyscam]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Let us know when you buy then sell, timing looks all important on that one!

A couple of posts upthread I mentioned a VIX range of 14-16 as a proxy to trigger the buy. As the hedge is essentially a volatility play the lower the VIX the cheaper the cost of insurance so that’s what I have to use in the absence of the FTSE 100 VIX which has been discontinued.

The beauty for me of the ETN as opposed to options / spread bet is the one off cost vs the rolling over / transaction cost / margin management of the other methods net of the custody fee for this particular ETN if your custodian charges one.

I will post once I’ve done it. If we get any sort of melt up we should see 14 VIX easily.

[The Bear of Doom]

8 hours ago, belfastchild said:

RT documentaries did a hatchet piece on mosaic possibly being associated with increased cancers in florida recently (trying to choose my words carefully). Both up 200 odd percent for me.
 

I was switching between the TV channels the other day, and caught a bit of that RT hit piece documentary - I was meaning to make a post about it on here but never got around to it 

They were saying that the tailings and effluent from the Potash mines contains elevated levels of Uranium - upon hearing that my immediate thoughts were "what a waste, they could be selling that!" 

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

A couple of posts upthread I mentioned a VIX range of 14-16 as a proxy to trigger the buy. As the hedge is essentially a volatility play the lower the VIX the cheaper the cost of insurance so that’s what I have to use in the absence of the FTSE 100 VIX which has been discontinued.

The beauty for me of the ETN as opposed to options / spread bet is the one off cost vs the rolling over / transaction cost / margin management of the other methods net of the custody fee for this particular ETN if your custodian charges one.

I will post once I’ve done it. If we get any sort of melt up we should see 14 VIX easily.

True, there never seems to be much downside when it hits around that. I do keep an eye on it

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/vix?op=1

[belfastchild]

4 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

I was switching between the TV channels the other day, and caught a bit of that RT hit piece documentary - I was meaning to make a post about it on here but never got around to it 

They were saying that the tailings and effluent from the Potash mines contains elevated levels of Uranium - upon hearing that my immediate thoughts were "what a waste, they could be selling that!" 

But no, some bright spark saw all the waste lying around and thought it would be a good idea to grind it up and use it as ground cover in childrens playgrounds!

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just the normal tax relief you get on pension contributions.My partner got £4k of divs last year in her ISA.She pulled them out and put them in her SIPP and got £1k added from the government.She is going to jack in at 56 so has 11 or 12 years where she can pull £16700 a year tax free from her pension.She will empty it over those years and allow the ISA to build then and at 68 then kick her employer pension in and her state pension and her ISA divis.

Bit confused here...I though if you kept the Divis inside an Isa they are tax free anyway OR is the tax taken off the divi BEFORE it is paid [into the ISA]?

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Bit confused here...I though if you kept the Divis inside an Isa they are tax free anyway OR is the tax taken off the divi BEFORE it is paid [into the ISA]?

They’re tax free. You can with HL set up your ISA so that all dividends are paid out into a bank account.

DB’s cunning plan is to then take those dividends and pay them into a SIPP against your income allowance and thus get a 25% uplift by having the effective income tax added back i.e. receive £1,000 in dividends in your ISA. Have this paid out into a bank account. Pay into a SIPP and get a £250 top up.

[Sugarlips]

Is there a contrarian play going long ARKK coming up? Halved in the last year. If there is a pullback in US inflation will it have its final day in the sun?

[Lightscribe]

On 30/12/2021 at 16:41, Lightscribe said:

One of the main instigator organisations is called ‘Common Purpose’ and it’s been injected into all major institutions at the top to steer direction at the root level.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2486829/amp/GUY-ADAMS-This-non-profit-organisation-like-Lefts-old-boy-network.html

This has happened in all sectors from Home Office and civil service to the legislative/court sectors to the police and emergency services.

They provide ‘fast stream’ initiatives to get key scheme members in positions of influence. (I know this because I’ve witnessed it first hand, as have colleagues elsewhere in the country)

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/civil-service-fast-stream

https://commonpurpose.org

Links to China

https://commonpurpose.org/blog/archive/common-purpose-student-experiences-partner-with-all-china-youth-federation/

China buying influence in UK private schools

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9282617/amp/British-private-institutions-bought-Chinese-firms.html

Basically whilst the government has been making sure ever more props in place to keep everybody busy on how much their houses were worth and how many more they could buy, the roadmap ahead has been cemented in.

You see China won without ever firing a shot. It used the West’s own greed and economic decimation by feeding off its younger generation against them, they’ll have no land, ownership, wealth or pensions.

Reliance on UBI government handouts combined with AI and automation will be their only option in a form of communism dressed as socialism but in reality, neo-feudalism.

What have her away do you think?

[Errol]

Big purchase for Endeavour Silver:

 

 

[Errol]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Bit confused here...I though if you kept the Divis inside an Isa they are tax free anyway OR is the tax taken off the divi BEFORE it is paid [into the ISA]?

£2000 of the dividends are tax free anyway (UK), due to the allowance. Whether they are in an ISA or not.

https://www.gov.uk/tax-on-dividends

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

What have her away do you think?

*Gave

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

*Gave

link the chins in american dad, she was always asking for launch codes (raunch codes).

[nirvana]

what happened to Uncle Dave's RALLY?

some fukkers took a big shite on the Nasdaq lol

NB tumbled over 400 pips from the spike high, hmmmm, good game, good game 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, The Bear of Doom said:

I was switching between the TV channels the other day, and caught a bit of that RT hit piece documentary - I was meaning to make a post about it on here but never got around to it 

They were saying that the tailings and effluent from the Potash mines contains elevated levels of Uranium - upon hearing that my immediate thoughts were "what a waste, they could be selling that!" 

Harmony Gold have more Uranium on their tailings than most Uranium companies have in their mines.Once the price goes they will rework filter them.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, nirvana said:

what happened to Uncle Dave's RALLY?

some fukkers took a big shite on the Nasdaq lol

nothing lasts forever.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

nothing lasts forever

except money printing lol

I got a shock earlier when I confused the Nas composite with the Nas 100, eek