Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

Steve Kaplan has writtena few wise things in his time,got a few things wrong as well but he said some 2 or 3 years ago that the oilies were the last thing to rise into the BK.I think this is the run up here.Could be wrong,but that's how the price action feels,the pull backs are getting bought heavily by insto money.The last pull back on BP was to 320 and I remember as I was looking to leverage with some calls but jsut never got in and haven't since.This is the first part of this bull run where we've not had calls running.

Planning to sell Total/ENI and buy BP/RDSA ...time will tell.

Feeling so bullish,In another 50% we'll be breaking even on the Scottish Play and I'll finally be able to say it's name.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Thanks for the reminder.We got some Cameco back in 2017 but no other exposrue to uranium.Sold all but our top ladder in Harmony at $6 last year and clearly need to get them back.I wasa due a chat with my Mum about our goldies portfolio as I feel the need to make some changes eg sell BVN(decent holding that's breaking even but jsut nervous about it) and then do soemthing else with it eg buy some MAI/SMD.Now you mention it though DB,this looks the perfect solution as I don't like selling mid size goldies to rotate into smaller ones.I like order in the pyramid.

Appreciate that psot.

 

Sorry to bombard you (but I have zero know how on SIPPs) but can you wait till you're 53/54,bung in few quid ,get the 20% tax relief and then draw it down a year later before rinsing the pension over the following 10-12 years?

Yes,you can even bung in £3600 a year when you have stopped working and drawing down and get the tax relief until your 75.Open a new SIPP with another provider and pay it in there.Free £700 a year each.

My kids are mostly ISA at the moment,but 10 years before they can access their SIPPs they will use the ISA divs to live on and then save 100% of their salaries into their SIPPs.My partner is 51,she is now saving 100% of her taxable pay in her SIPP.Its crucial to learn how to interact the two especially between 55 and state pension age.Il withdraw £16600 from mine from 55 and re-invest divis withing ISA,at state pension age il go into full drawdown,take the 25%,but then only £3500 from SIPP,rest from ISA and state pension.Il never pay income tax again.

[CannonFodder]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Sorry to bombard you (but I have zero know how on SIPPs) but can you wait till you're 53/54,bung in few quid ,get the 20% tax relief and then draw it down a year later before rinsing the pension over the following 10-12 years?

Yes in theory, though that triggers lower allowance, it is taxable income on way out, lifetime allowance not to be exceeded and one should only pay in taxable income

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Does anyone hold these, I was lucky to buy them at 940 and topped up at 1065, so 10% up over all, my reasomning was the all this electric bollocks needs the national grid.  Good dividend level too.

Looks like a steady growth stock to me.

I prefer Red Electrica ,but they are up 20% from last year when i bought them,worth watching for any pullbacks.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

Yes in theory, though that triggers lower allowance, it is taxable income on way out, lifetime allowance not to be exceeded and one should only pay in taxable income

You can pay in £3600 even when you are none taxable and retired,up to 75 and get tax relief.Like you say taxable on way out so depends how you structure.Interaction between ISA and SIPP is key to keep tax to a minimum,or in my case zero.

[CannonFodder]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

You can pay in £3600 even when you are none taxable and retired,up to 75 and get tax relief.Like you say taxable on way out so depends how you structure.Interaction between ISA and SIPP is key to keep tax to a minimum,or in my case zero.

Wow, I didnt know that. So they give relief for tax not paid? 

I doubt they.ll be as generous when i get there.

IN truth I mostly skim the detail of the pension rules as they cant stop messing with them.

Similar to you I am aiming for personal allowance plus 25% and balance from pensions. My partner should hopefully add to that in household income.

Only workers pay tax in this country really.

I dont think there will be a state pension that is non means tested when i get there.

[Noallegiance]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Steve Kaplan has writtena few wise things in his time,got a few things wrong as well but he said some 2 or 3 years ago that the oilies were the last thing to rise into the BK.I think this is the run up here.Could be wrong,but that's how the price action feels,the pull backs are getting bought heavily by insto money.The last pull back on BP was to 320 and I remember as I was looking to leverage with some calls but jsut never got in and haven't since.This is the first part of this bull run where we've not had calls running.

Planning to sell Total/ENI and buy BP/RDSA ...time will tell.

Feeling so bullish,In another 50% we'll be breaking even on the Scottish Play and I'll finally be able to say it's name.

[Hardhat]

Damn I really wanted to buy a lot more BATS...

Will be waiting for a pullback.

BP hit 50% gain for me today.

RDSB not far behind.

K&S, Repsol also doing great.

PMs languishing but waiting for the "rubber band".

My worry is needing to cash in my ISA to buy a house and keep the Mrs happy before the real gains arrive 

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Damn I really wanted to buy a lot more BATS...

Will be waiting for a pullback.

BP hit 50% gain for me today.

RDSB not far behind.

K&S, Repsol also doing great.

PMs languishing but waiting for the "rubber band".

My worry is needing to cash in my ISA to buy a house and keep the Mrs happy before the real gains arrive 

My mentor told me when i skirted with marriage that i could walk out of a club any night of the week with a bird,but id never walk out with half a house and half my investments that went up in smoke if we split.Keep Repsol,get shot of the wife 

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Steve Kaplan has writtena few wise things in his time,got a few things wrong as well but he said some 2 or 3 years ago that the oilies were the last thing to rise into the BK.I think this is the run up here.Could be wrong,but that's how the price action feels,the pull backs are getting bought heavily by insto money.The last pull back on BP was to 320 and I remember as I was looking to leverage with some calls but jsut never got in and haven't since.This is the first part of this bull run where we've not had calls running.

Planning to sell Total/ENI and buy BP/RDSA ...time will tell.

Feeling so bullish,In another 50% we'll be breaking even on the Scottish Play and I'll finally be able to say it's name.

 "Look like the innocent flower,

But be the serpent under it."

 Lady Macbeth,

[Hardhat]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My mentor told me when i skirted with marriage that i could walk out of a club any night of the week with a bird,but id never walk out with half a house and half my investments that went up in smoke if we split.Keep Repsol,get shot of the wife 

I'm trying to get her to adapt the @sancho panza model where the divis pay the rent. Unfortunately she wants a place she can redecorate 

I'll keep working on it... I've gotten her to understand already that holding O&G shares is a great hedge for our increasing heating bills... baby steps...

[ThoughtCriminal]

"It was at this point that Macron wondered if banning them from increasing prices wasn't his greatest idea". 🤡🤡🤡

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

"It was at this point that Macron wondered if banning them from increasing prices wasn't his greatest idea". 🤡🤡🤡

Worth buying ?

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

6 mins of Adam Curry expanding on the repo rates crisis of September 2019 leading to Covid theory and Mass Formation Psychosis - warning strong language

 

Interesting point from 4.00 onwards...just starting to show in UK but will the political/controlling class 'close it down' before it get to become critical mass via diversion activity and/or are these diversion activities i.e. Partygate just a 'smokescreen' to distract population away from real agenda i.e financial/economic control and or repression?

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

 

Can't wait to see how much taxpayer money got pissed up the wall on this white elephant.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Worth buying ?

Not if the government doesn't stop messing around with the market. So that'll be a no.

[Underwhelmed]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

6 mins of Adam Curry expanding on the repo rates crisis of September 2019 leading to Covid theory and Mass Formation Psychosis - warning strong language

 

lol, he does an even worse job of explaining Mass Formation although correctly points out that the psychosis part is redundant and not part of the theory. The repo crisis has been disussed in this article which has been posted multiple times on this site

https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

and

https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/the-central-bankers-long-covid-emergency-noise-and-conspiracys-best-kept-secret/

and

https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/red-pill-or-blue-pill-variants-inflation-and-the-controlled-demolition-of-society/

the author is a massive leftie but one who can see what's happening.

[ThoughtCriminal]

This'll end well. 🤦

[harp]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Worth buying ?

The French government own 85% of EDF. Not sure what that means going forward though. 

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This'll end well. 🤦

BlackCock was forewarned a long time ago......crony capitalism at it's best 

[planit]

58 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Steve Kaplan has writtena few wise things in his time,got a few things wrong as well but he said some 2 or 3 years ago that the oilies were the last thing to rise into the BK.I think this is the run up here.Could be wrong,but that's how the price action feels,the pull backs are getting bought heavily by insto money.The last pull back on BP was to 320 and I remember as I was looking to leverage with some calls but jsut never got in and haven't since.This is the first part of this bull run where we've not had calls running.

Planning to sell Total/ENI and buy BP/RDSA ...time will tell.

Feeling so bullish,In another 50% we'll be breaking even on the Scottish Play and I'll finally be able to say it's name.

Funny that we have lead a very similar path.

I feel we have been seeing a rotation into value due to tech being seen as more risky, some of the oil shares including BP are a no-brainer at current valuations. BP averaged 520p in 2019 when oil was $55.

I will continue to trade my shares but don't see myself selling out of BP for a very long time, we are just at the beginning of the cycle.

Today I see a breakout to the upside for BP (trend from Nov 2020), I am hoping for good results to push the share over 400p.

 

I missed out buying the BP @320.1 by 0.1p per share which was pretty stupid, I just left the order to be filled and it never was.

However, I did buy BP ADR Jan 23 Call options on a day when the ADR was at a discount to the UK share, I paid about 355 per share when the shares were 360 (excluding the extrinsic option value). In this way I did manage to load up on BP albeit at a price 30p more expensive.

I did hold onto my PFC shares and doubled down at 111p so I am happy in Jan

TGA - @M S E Refugee - I have been backing up the truck, it has been good to me trading it and I can't wait for the results in March. I will be disappointed with a dividend announcement less than 70p but we will see how it goes.

 

I am now trading options the 'TastyTrade' way, (hat tip to @MvR) using about 15% of my portfolio (not including the long BP ADRs) and trying to learn fast so I don't have to get a job.

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, planit said:

Funny that we have lead a very similar path.

I feel we have been seeing a rotation into value due to tech being seen as more risky, some of the oil shares including BP are a no-brainer at current valuations. BP averaged 520p in 2019 when oil was $55.

I will continue to trade my shares but don't see myself selling out of BP for a very long time, we are just at the beginning of the cycle.

Today I see a breakout to the upside for BP (trend from Nov 2020), I am hoping for good results to push the share over 400p.

 

I missed out buying the BP @320.1 by 0.1p per share which was pretty stupid, I just left the order to be filled and it never was.

However, I did buy BP ADR Jan 23 Call options on a day when the ADR was at a discount to the UK share, I paid about 355 per share when the shares were 360 (excluding the extrinsic option value). In this way I did manage to load up on BP albeit at a price 30p more expensive.

I did hold onto my PFC shares and doubled down at 111p so I am happy in Jan

TGA - @M S E Refugee - I have been backing up the truck, it has been good to me trading it and I can't wait for the results in March. I will be disappointed with a dividend announcement less than 70p but we will see how it goes.

 

I am now trading options the 'TastyTrade' way, (hat tip to @MvR) using about 15% of my portfolio (not including the long BP ADRs) and trying to learn fast so I don't have to get a job.

 

 

 

I wish had the nerve to trade TGA but I am just going to keep accumulating. 

The Coal price has crept above $200 again so they should be making money hand over fist.

[nirvana]

15 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Turns out having a big chunk of an index being made up of stocks that need a constant supply of cheap money is not a good thing when Inflation really starts going.

yeah ok interesting...so what's your take on Uncle Dave's Nasdaq to 20k with FED tightening looming?

[nirvana]

NAS taking a tumble again pre-market.....I'm obsessed with this fuker now! have a cat gif

 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, nirvana said:

NAS taking a tumble again pre-market.....I'm obsessed with this fuker now! have a cat gif

 

DAAAAVVVVEEEEE WHY NUMBER GO DOWN

 

 

I'm YOLOing in at Nasdaq comp ~14500 so you might get a chance to laugh at me