Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

Back to the HPI forever glory days of 0.5%

It'll be a start .... a 0.25% hike at most meetings in 2022 would do the trick for a HPC .. getting to 1% would be a reality check for the housing market imho ... 1.5% and i'll be getting the Jazz mags out!

Difference between now and 2010/11 is most nations are now raising rates, so its certainly viable.

[CannonFodder]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes, but it's not just here in the UK... It is actually rather frightening to hear this 'doom/gloomers' predictions, particularly as Viktor Shvets is still actively employed as a banker! Ie he's not just a  financial commentator, though how long before he's fired from his post, when he says things like he'd never again own a bank stock(!), its only matter of time I guess.                                                                                                                                His thesis on deflation vs inflation is also interesting, for alternative view point.                                                                 Macro voices podcast:  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=07Lq7ysCfBkown

Thank you, watch that interview tonight, quite interesting

[JMD]

6 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

I listened to this interview (Viktor Shvets) and didn't understand a word. Then I listened to it again and am starting to kind of get it. I think he believes public sector takes over (global communism), rates stay at zero... US and Europe 'going Japanese'. Prices of things go to either zero (via productivity gains from technology) or infinite (because money printing MMT etc cannot stop). I think it needs a lot of things for the State to get right though, and the State has a track record of incompetence and corruption. At the end I think he says this will be the way of the new world because the only way to reset the financial system would be a deflationary bust or a war. Well, yes, I think either of things is more likely to happen than this global socialism/communism/enlightenment being described.

Useful to hear it though. Thanks for posting.

Viktor Shvets is talking about very big picture themes, which i agree are initially difficult to get head around, but which he describes better in the below interview. Actually I think his thesis of coming deflation actually chimes with @DurhamBorn, after all DB estimates 'only' 67% inflation this cycle, however within this figure inflation assets like oil/gas will run higher whereas other non industrial assets will be far lower. And Shvets says things like energy is a inflationary commodity but copper, lithium, etc are disinflationary commodities, unfortunately he doesn't detail why because much of his research is for institutional investors only.                                                                                                                                                                           Shvets believes automation, financialisation, debt will be the big forces driving deflation. For example he thinks most underestimate our post industrial age, where 3d printing machines will decrease marginal costs in the physical word just like what happened in the on line digital space. He also thinks free markets are not coming back because our highly financialised/indebted markets/corporations are a 'problem' that no government is willing to tackle, and that in any case the younger generation want a big state solution. Shvets doesn't favour any of this, but sees it as better than war or hyperinflation (plus it provides a possible co existence strategy with China), and says in 20 years time people will begin benefitting from this... It's just us unfortunate buggers who need to go through it I guess!!                                                                                                                                                                                           Tbc I think this thread is excellent for accumulating wealth this cycle, but I am becoming more convinced that Shvets is laying out the risks/roadmap/model that lays ahead in the 2030's. So maybe we don't have a monetary collapse, but instead we get a different set of challenges to financially negotiate?!                                   'The Great Rupture' book goes into more detail. This podcast is also worth listening to -  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m4PDxceSaqc                                

[JREWING]

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

1.5% and i'll be getting the Jazz mags out!

 

Funny that.

I'm with you bud but don't see a crash in the housing or stock market. This big K will be like the big HPC I predicted back in 2003. Still waiting and renting today. Just like waiting for a buy in at £9 for RDSB. 

We're in a new place monetary wise today, nothing seems logical anymore. It is how it is and there is nothing that will change it's course other than an all out war. War clears all the shit out.

We're living in Disney money land where there are no rules. Why people bother going to work I'll never know. Pointless task work, Bennie's free money for all. Hallaluyah...praise to the free money tree.

[JimmyTheBruce]

On 14/01/2022 at 16:15, Ma2 said:

I just wanted to share that there is no legal reason why this can't be done and that I got a negative response to my request to do this several times.

I've finally caught up, so can wholeheartedly agree with the above.  Amusingly, they've written it into the rules that they devised to rope more people into their fees scam.

The government rules (https://www.gov.uk/employers-workplace-pensions-rules) state that your workplace scheme must:

• let you leave the pension scheme (called ‘opting out’) if you ask
• let you rejoin the scheme at least once a year if you’ve opted out

Which effectively means, if you've got a shit work scheme, you can opt out, transfer to your SIPP, then opt back in again without ever missing any contributions.

All the providers are no doubt aware of this workaround but, as Ma says, they will deny all knowledge of it and you have to be a very persistent bugger to get a result.  The process goes something like this:

1.  You ask HR if they will pay contributions directly to a SIPP, or allow you to transfer money out whilst continuing to receive contributions.  They respond saying that the provider has said this isn't possible.

2.  You send them a link to the government rules above, and ask what the process (and timings) is for opting out and back in.

3.  HR, the pension provider and the pension administrator spend 6 months pointing the finger at each other for an answer to this question. They mention that Trustee approval will probably be required to do this.  When you ask who the Trustees are, they give you a postal address for "The Trustees."  When you ask for the email address of a physical representation of a trustee, they prevaricate for another 3 months.

4.  You finally get hold of the "Secretary to the Trustees" who doesn't know what the process is either, but acknowledges the stupidity (and administrative burden) of leaving and rejoining when the sole aim is to transfer funds out.  She agrees to speak to the Trustees.

5.  3 months later, encouraged by a "friendly reminder" email to the Secretary every week, the Trustees agree to allow a transfer out, following the existing transfer process, with no need to opt out of the Scheme.

I should make clear that all of the above applies to a defined contribution scheme but, if any of you have already tried and been knocked back at step one, don't give up.  They make you feel like an idiot for asking (how could a pleb possibly understand something as complex as pensions) and they purposefully obfuscate everything, but it's your money, and you have every right to move it wherever you like.

Be persistent, and if they're getting you down, just listen to Tom

 

[Axeman123]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

...he thinks most underestimate our post industrial age, where 3d printing machines will decrease marginal costs in the physical word just like what happened in the on line digital space...

I am skeptical on 3d printing cars and refridgerators etc at home. Industry tends to use the process for niche tasks like prototyping, or mould making for casting. I also doubt any government would want the loss of control or taxation that would follow.

8 hours ago, JMD said:

...and that in any case the younger generation want a big state solution...

100% on that. Anyone born 1997 or later has never even breathed the air of Pre-Blair Britain, they have literally never experienced anything but big state interventionism and it's propaganda for same.

[JimmyTheBruce]

There's been a fair few mentions of Blackrock LATAM and Henderson Far East recently.  The management charges brought out the Scot in me, so I did a bit more digging.

The full holdings are here (note the November dates):

https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/literature/policies/brlait-portfolio-disclosure.pdf

https://www.janushenderson.com/henderson/Document/22444/henderson-far-east-income-limited-portfolio-disclosure

For the Scots and more adventurous out there, there are available ADRs for quite a lot of the Blackrock holdings.  The same cannot be said for Henderson.

I'll be biting the bullet and getting some Henderson, but I'm going to try and replicate some of the Blackrock one manually; I already hold Vale, Petrobras and TIM, so I've got a headstart.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, JREWING said:

Funny that.

I'm with you bud but don't see a crash in the housing or stock market. This big K will be like the big HPC I predicted back in 2003. Still waiting and renting today. Just like waiting for a buy in at £9 for RDSB. 

We're in a new place monetary wise today, nothing seems logical anymore. It is how it is and there is nothing that will change it's course other than an all out war. War clears all the shit out.

We're living in Disney money land where there are no rules. Why people bother going to work I'll never know. Pointless task work, Bennie's free money for all. Hallaluyah...praise to the free money tree.

We've been in Disney money land since the late 90s where people have made life changing sums of money for living in their average house .... parents were encouraged to separate and/or work part time so the govt could hand them other poeples and borrowed/printed money via working/child tax credits.

The last 2 years with Covid has been the biggest free handout of money in human history .... but from what i can make out, that epic handout now means interest rates rise and govts can't print any more.

When that finally dawns on people and the markets, financial reality kicks in for people/companies with debt and those reliant on free handouts, which included western govts who have been bribing the electorate with funds from the magic money tree.

 

[JREWING]

20 minutes ago, Hancock said:

We've been in Disney money land since the late 90s where people have made life changing sums of money for living in their average house .... parents were encouraged to separate and/or work part time so the govt could hand them other poeples and borrowed/printed money.

The last 2 years with Covid has been the biggest free handout of money in human history .... but from what i can make out, that epic handout now means interest rates rise and govts can't print any more.

When that finally dawns on people and the markets, financial reality kicks in for people/companies with debt and those reliant on free handouts, which included western govts who have been bribing the electorate with funds from the magic money tree.

 

Where I drink, it’s a proper boozer, spit and sawdust, a range of blokes from retired, on benefits to golf club members and spritzer drinkers. Two guys, same school years, retired last year. Both now full time drinkers. We were all chatting, back of fag packet calculations
One not had a pot to piss in all his life, spent every penny he had, never owned a house, lived with various Fräulein’s, gets his rent paid now retired; £185 a week to live on, pays no maintenance, on his place and no council tax either.
The other one, worked all his life, small private pension. House paid for. Gets the same £185 a week, but here’s the thing. His monthly private pension payment gets eaten up by the cost of maintaining his house and the full cost of Council Tax.
Owning a house and paying into a pension does have its drawbacks, it’s not all bells and whistles.
I understand you have a nipper and want stability, I hope the market crashes for you, or I hope BP goes to £2/£3 quid for you. But sadly I do not see either happening. I’m in the same boat apart from the fact I have a bucket load of BP shares that I’m just itching to cash in on.
 

[Starsend]

4 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Where I drink, it’s a proper boozer, spit and sawdust, a range of blokes from retired, on benefits to golf club members and spritzer drinkers. Two guys, same school years, retired last year. Both now full time drinkers. We were all chatting, back of fag packet calculations
One not had a pot to piss in all his life, spent every penny he had, never owned a house, lived with various Fräulein’s, gets his rent paid now retired; £185 a week to live on, pays no maintenance, on his place and no council tax either.
The other one, worked all his life, small private pension. House paid for. Gets the same £185 a week, but here’s the thing. His monthly private pension payment gets eaten up by the cost of maintaining his house and the full cost of Council Tax.
Owning a house and paying into a pension does have its drawbacks, it’s not all bells and whistles.
I understand you have a nipper and want stability, I hope the market crashes for you, or I hope BP goes to £2/£3 quid for you. But sadly I do not see either happening. I’m in the same boat apart from the fact I have a bucket load of BP shares that I’m just itching to cash in on.
 

In the end it's about having control over your own life rather than being dependent on a Government that may change the rules at any time making your life hell. I'd rather be poor and not reliant on anybody.

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Where I drink, it’s a proper boozer, spit and sawdust, a range of blokes from retired, on benefits to golf club members and spritzer drinkers. Two guys, same school years, retired last year. Both now full time drinkers. We were all chatting, back of fag packet calculations
One not had a pot to piss in all his life, spent every penny he had, never owned a house, lived with various Fräulein’s, gets his rent paid now retired; £185 a week to live on, pays no maintenance, on his place and no council tax either.
The other one, worked all his life, small private pension. House paid for. Gets the same £185 a week, but here’s the thing. His monthly private pension payment gets eaten up by the cost of maintaining his house and the full cost of Council Tax.
Owning a house and paying into a pension does have its drawbacks, it’s not all bells and whistles.
I understand you have a nipper and want stability, I hope the market crashes for you, or I hope BP goes to £2/£3 quid for you. But sadly I do not see either happening. I’m in the same boat apart from the fact I have a bucket load of BP shares that I’m just itching to cash in on.
 

Cheers, i'll be OK moneywise, i get paid £650 a day to tick boxes! ... just a headache having such a bundle of cash that is being inflated away ... will spend the remaining 11k in my SIPP on shares this coming week, as my balls for a crash are getting slightly smaller. Those funds listed above look as good as any to split it into.

I'd hold on to the BP shares, looks as if they'll be paying a good dividend for the next decade ... and as you say they may not drop circa 25% from now until the end of the current cycle. I think my SIPP is approx 30% oilies so on that score i'll be OK.

As for the stability, it seems i've played the Tory/BOE house price game horrendously, and my kid is the victim ... where i live there used to be kids playing outside all year round ... since covid i never see them playing out ... they have well and truly been failed by their parents and grandparents generations.

 

 

[JREWING]

6 minutes ago, Starsend said:

In the end it's about having control over your own life rather than being dependent on a Government that may change the rules at any time making your life hell. I'd rather be poor and not reliant on anybody.

The last two years have taught me one thing buddy; you have very little control over your own life and its is rapidly deteriorating. They are coming for you finances next, I hope Johnson stays on, not a hell in chance of another lock down, while he is in charge. If he goes, a clean slate, god know's whats in store for us all. The last two years have been a wake up call. I do not believe for one moment we have all of a sudden rid ourselves of the great disease that is COVID 19. A new leader a new scarient, a new set of rules. Funny how they are trying to oust him now. Rather convenient while other countries have strict rules in place.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

 Anyone born 1997 or later has never even breathed the air of Pre-Blair Britain, they have literally never experienced anything but big state interventionism and it's propaganda for same.

On that one i see it as the parents being the ones who have been reliant on big state interventionism, it is they/us who have relied on house price inflation, working/child tax credits and the creation of endless amounts of non jobs in both the public and private sectors.

The same people who benefited from the state building council houses that were cheap to rent/buy and had tariffs/laws in place that stopped jobs being exported and the mass immigration we've seen since Blair came in.

There isn't going to be much left in the pot for the people in their 20s and younger to get from "big govt", it'll be them paying for the fecklessness of 1997-2022.

[Harley]

Interesting to read the last few points.  Rhymes with what I was grappling with two years or so ago.  

Three things:

. Be careful how you measure wealth.  The current monetary system is being destroyed, first hollowed out with inflation and currency depreciation and maybe ending with a bang.   There is no way back.  Historically, not that unusual.  You may well get burnt counting in today's fiat.

. Those who have benefited in the past are unlikely to in the future so if you're of the right age think things through rather than repeat the past or use those old yardsticks.  The future is yours not theirs.

. I legally brought in more net than my PAYE partner last year, a ton more if you add in all the building, plumbing, electrical, etc work I did, suitably grossed up to pre tax/NI income.  Live smart.

Bottom line, the times they are well changing so don't cry into someone else's old stale beer but dare to think anew, unencumbered, and sieze the opportunies!

 

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.Lots of my work was tracking how many in the country did fuck all for their money.Its over half the population now if you count 2 state jobs as 1 real job.The UK private sector is one of the best in the world,but its being killed by bennies and the state.CB monetizing debt has allowed governments to get away with it.The government seem intent on making it worse and worse by throwing more bennies at every issue when the real answer is to cut the bennies and tax.Boris is heading towards being worse than Brown,thats something i never thought id see.

This is my persistent gripe.

You get gormless economists banging on about the poor productivity of the uk, yet the clueless fuckers are not counting the number of people actually working.

In the NE the number of FT private sector workers is tiny - I'd guess there more on UCs.

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, JREWING said:

Where I drink, it’s a proper boozer, spit and sawdust, a range of blokes from retired, on benefits to golf club members and spritzer drinkers. Two guys, same school years, retired last year. Both now full time drinkers. We were all chatting, back of fag packet calculations
One not had a pot to piss in all his life, spent every penny he had, never owned a house, lived with various Fräulein’s, gets his rent paid now retired; £185 a week to live on, pays no maintenance, on his place and no council tax either.
The other one, worked all his life, small private pension. House paid for. Gets the same £185 a week, but here’s the thing. His monthly private pension payment gets eaten up by the cost of maintaining his house and the full cost of Council Tax.
Owning a house and paying into a pension does have its drawbacks, it’s not all bells and whistles.
I understand you have a nipper and want stability, I hope the market crashes for you, or I hope BP goes to £2/£3 quid for you. But sadly I do not see either happening. I’m in the same boat apart from the fact I have a bucket load of BP shares that I’m just itching to cash in on.
 

Difference though is if you want to retire early.Iv been mortgage free since i was 35 really (i owed about £20k that i carried as i was interest only at base rate tracker so no interest to talk off) and retired at 49.I dont fancy working until 68 and the years from 50 to 68 are when the bennie goldmine ends for most people as the kids go over 18/21 and your down to £75 a week and the hastle that goes with it.Pension credit rules have just changed as well so a couple cant get pension credit until both are over state pension age so its Univeral credit,and state pension is more than that so couples will have to live off one persons pension until the other reaches SPA.Bennies are at insane levels when you have kids,but not after you just single or a couple and the inflation caused by the bennies to families hits hardest on those without kids on bennies as food and fuel ramp up.

Id also want more than £185 a week.£300 makes a big difference than £185.Council tax is £25 a week for me and id say house maintenance £1k a year max.I could live on £600+ a week now if i wanted without my partners wage and her investments.

Most people are poor because they have shit parents,and shit grandparents.You need generations to pass wealth down so that each generation can add and develop themselves with some money from work,but extra from capital.Of course the danger is one idiot decides to get married,or spunks the lot on the next big thing.Iv always hated control hence the need to be financially free.Retiring is easy at 68,just the pension and a bit extra,the hard bit is going early,or in my case very very early.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, spygirl said:

This is my persistent gripe.

You get gormless economists banging on about the poor productivity of the uk, yet the clueless fuckers are not counting the number of people actually working.

In the NE the number of FT private sector workers is tiny - I'd guess there more on UCs.

 

86% of my hometowns income came from bennies or state/council salaries when i was a councillor.86%.

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Most people are poor because they have shit parents,and shit grandparents.You need generations to pass wealth down so that each generation can add and develop themselves with some money from work,but extra from capital.Of course the danger is one idiot decides to get married,or spunks the lot on the next big thing.Iv always hated control hence the need to be financially free.Retiring is easy at 68,just the pension and a bit extra,the hard bit is going early,or in my case very very early.

Cheers DB, you've just made me feel so much better about going into my kids room and taking £200 of her £280 Xmas money to put in her Junior ISA which now stands at £12861!

The other £80 is to spend on warm weather clothes. 

One line i've always drummed in her head is "the best way to stay poor, is to pretend you're rich".

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Interesting to read the last few points.  Rhymes with what I was grappling with two years or so ago.  

Three things:

. Be careful how you measure wealth.  The current monetary system is being destroyed, first hollowed out with inflation and currency depreciation and maybe ending with a bang.   There is no way back.  Historically, not that unusual.  You may well get burnt counting in today's fiat.

. Those who have benefited in the past are unlikely to in the future so if you're of the right age think things through rather than repeat the past or use those old yardsticks.  The future is yours not theirs.

. I legally brought in more net than my PAYE partner last year, a ton more if you add in all the building, plumbing, electrical, etc work I did, suitably grossed up to pre tax/NI income.  Live smart.

Bottom line, the times they are well changing so don't cry into someone else's old stale beer but dare to think anew, unencumbered, and sieze the opportunies!

 

Thats right,and the job of this thread is to make sure we gain from the changes.I refuse to lose.

Living smart is the other thing everyone needs for the cycle ahead.Inflation works by inflating every part of a chain,and the ones at the end are hit the most because they get every bit of the chains increases.Learn to remove as many parts as you can.I made my own leek soup today,it costs £1.10 for what would be 4 tins.Doing it myself i remove the cost of the metal in the tins,the energy to make the metal,the paper,the labour to make all those parts.

Removing parts of chains are crucial in a distribution cycle and make a huge difference.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I am skeptical on 3d printing cars and refridgerators etc at home. Industry tends to use the process for niche tasks like prototyping, or mould making for casting. I also doubt any government would want the loss of control or taxation that would follow.

Yes but 3d printing covers a huge range of applications, so not everyone will be printing complex devices from their home. For example, the building industry in Germany is currently using large industrial printers to build houses; in medium size manufacture as you say it's already being used for castings and for quick /cheap prototyping of devices; at home we could easily see all kinds of simple parts being printed. Extruding machines have been around for long time, but it is the digitisation/AI link that is the game changer in terms of tech. The driver is the fast automation, and the deskilling across low paid/high paid jobs (eg designers, engineers), plus reduction in supply chains, and the greater adoption of the licensing, and the '...as a service', business model.                                                                                                                                                                       Viktor Shvets sees these changes as all being part of the new top-down commercial market place that's emerging. He likens it to Amazon having pioneered the first global virtual store, and so 3d printing/automation/AI will create a global consumer oriented manufacturing base. He thinks this will be the focus of business and government because he believes we're entering a post industrial age. And for example big transport/building projects etc will not happen because these projects are vanity projects and just won't be allowed in a environmentally focused world.

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, JREWING said:

Where I drink, it’s a proper boozer, spit and sawdust, a range of blokes from retired, on benefits to golf club members and spritzer drinkers. Two guys, same school years, retired last year. Both now full time drinkers. We were all chatting, back of fag packet calculations
One not had a pot to piss in all his life, spent every penny he had, never owned a house, lived with various Fräulein’s, gets his rent paid now retired; £185 a week to live on, pays no maintenance, on his place and no council tax either.
The other one, worked all his life, small private pension. House paid for. Gets the same £185 a week, but here’s the thing. His monthly private pension payment gets eaten up by the cost of maintaining his house and the full cost of Council Tax.
Owning a house and paying into a pension does have its drawbacks, it’s not all bells and whistles.
I understand you have a nipper and want stability, I hope the market crashes for you, or I hope BP goes to £2/£3 quid for you. But sadly I do not see either happening. I’m in the same boat apart from the fact I have a bucket load of BP shares that I’m just itching to cash in on.
 

The scammer is living by the grace of his LLs/housing providor

Most people I know like the scratter are living in HMOs, barely one step up from a tramp.

Even in the north, they will only get you a room in a shared house.

No priority for social housing.

Best outcome is hell end up in a oap housing.

 

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, JREWING said:

The last two years have taught me one thing buddy; you have very little control over your own life and its is rapidly deteriorating. They are coming for you finances next, I hope Johnson stays on, not a hell in chance of another lock down, while he is in charge. If he goes, a clean slate, god know's whats in store for us all. The last two years have been a wake up call. I do not believe for one moment we have all of a sudden rid ourselves of the great disease that is COVID 19. A new leader a new scarient, a new set of rules. Funny how they are trying to oust him now. Rather convenient while other countries have strict rules in place.

Yes, the first time BoJo showed any lockdown hesitancy he ended up just a few weeks later in a hospital bed with Covid. This time round after making light of Omicron, again after only a few weeks, all manner of leaks regarding parties suddenly appear out of the blue to destabalise him and his government... I'm not a conspiracy type, but it makes for a very curious coincidence.

[AlfredTheLittle]

48 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes but 3d printing covers a huge range of applications, so not everyone will be printing complex devices from their home. For example, the building industry in Germany is currently using large industrial printers to build houses; in medium size manufacture as you say it's already being used for castings and for quick /cheap prototyping of devices; at home we could easily see all kinds of simple parts being printed. Extruding machines have been around for long time, but it is the digitisation/AI link that is the game changer in terms of tech. The driver is the fast automation, and the deskilling across low paid/high paid jobs (eg designers, engineers), plus reduction in supply chains, and the greater adoption of the licensing, and the '...as a service', business model.                                                                                                                                                                       Viktor Shvets sees these changes as all being part of the new top-down commercial market place that's emerging. He likens it to Amazon having pioneered the first global virtual store, and so 3d printing/automation/AI will create a global consumer oriented manufacturing base. He thinks this will be the focus of business and government because he believes we're entering a post industrial age. And for example big transport/building projects etc will not happen because these projects are vanity projects and just won't be allowed in a environmentally focused world.

Any ways to invest in 3d printing? Who are the leaders? 

[Axeman123]

55 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes but 3d printing covers a huge range of applications, so not everyone will be printing complex devices from their home. 

100%, it is just that all the best applications I have seen are niche. Examples: moulds for custom carbon fibre airboxes for motorsport used to be cast from a buck lovingly carved from foam, now that buck can be CAD designed and printed. Lost PLA casting allows small batch production of small custom items like jewellery.

59 minutes ago, JMD said:

For example, the building industry in Germany is currently using large industrial printers to build houses;                          

The only part of a house they can print is concrete walls, block laying is a tiny percentage of the labour involved in a building. If they could ever print the wiring/insulation/glazing etc as well in a single pass I will sit up and take notice.

1 hour ago, JMD said:

at home we could easily see all kinds of simple parts being printed.

What small parts do you regularly need with the surface finish that 3d printing currently gives? Maybe one day...

It is an exciting technology, but I suspect if it ever becomes "the way we make things" the machine will be the size and cost of a current factory. Standardised general purpose factories that can make AR15's one minute and communications satelites the next with no downtime would be pretty cool, and could potentially eliminate most shipping/redundant capacity.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

 at home we could easily see all kinds of simple parts being printed.

I bought one for this very reason, for parts for cars/camper/boat, fixes for things etc. I had a steam mop that had cracked an abs part and couldnt get a replacement. Had to throw it out when I could have printed the part easily.

Saying that, I bought one two years ago, assembled it and have never turned it on. Again to be fair been concentrating on the big outdoor  stuff the last two years. Now have a box of accumulated electronics things and so on that could be fixed or repurposed.
I went through a lot of buying stuff pre brexit date and when covid looked like it was going to become an issue (3d printer, ebike, cheap wooden lathe, finger sanders etc etc) just in case they would turn out to be more expensive or just not available.