Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Funn3r]

https://www.breezyscroll.com/business/credit-suisse-chairman-resigns-over-covid-19-violations/

António Horta-Osório gets the chop. This guy is a serious player in the banking biz; ex-BOE director and ex-CEO of Lloyds banking Group. And they're dumping him for a theoretical Novak-style quarantine-gone-wrong? Can't help feeling there's more to this.

[Funn3r]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

but unattended a woman will ALWAYS spunk money up the wall on holidays, cushions, and other tat.

I have a very good friend, woman in her 50s. She is intelligent, reasonably well-off, and an accountant in a large company but it's exactly as you say. She treats money as if it were tesco clubcard points. Imagine someone actively not caring, I've seen her spend hundreds where a few minutes thought could have achieved whatever it was at much less or even no cost. I don't know what's the matter with people.

[MrXxxx]

19 hours ago, Harley said:

Bottom line, the times they are well changing so don't cry into someone else's old stale beer but dare to think anew, unencumbered, and sieze the opportunies!

I agree with this sentiment i.e. it's easier/less effort to change a situation than to just moan about it, and have started my latest 'journey', the problem is currently 'they' are restricting my ability to move across borders/countries due to Covid unless I comply with vaccination.

[Axeman123]

29 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

...they're dumping him for a theoretical Novak-style quarantine-gone-wrong? Can't help feeling there's more to this.

Once upon a time it might have been on the basis that if he would be dishonest about something trivial, then he can't be trusted on anything larger.

Nowadays it is probably that if he is stupid enough to get caught for something trivial, then he can't be relied upon to cover-up anything larger.

[MrXxxx]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

86% of my hometowns income came from bennies or state/council salaries when i was a councillor.86%.

...and this is why I 'gave up' recently and said "If I can't beat them I will join them...and if I can't join them the least I will do is pay as little to support them"...I was [naively] bought up to believe that "to get the best out of life you had to work for it", but when I looked around myself, saw that this was not the case, and that I was being 'mugged off' I decided that it just wasn't true anymore.

[Noallegiance]

36 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I have a very good friend, woman in her 50s. She is intelligent, reasonably well-off, and an accountant in a large company but it's exactly as you say. She treats money as if it were tesco clubcard points. Imagine someone actively not caring, I've seen her spend hundreds where a few minutes thought could have achieved whatever it was at much less or even no cost. I don't know what's the matter with people.

It's not just lasses.

I've heard blokes say they couldn't survive on less than £60k.

If I was on £60k I'd be retiring at 50 without doing anything special.

No idea what these people spend it on

[MrXxxx]

15 hours ago, Hancock said:

Doing the brick work has to be the most labour intensive part, and if you've got a machine working 24/7, it is a game changer.

 

Its funny, just reading the above beforehand I thought of this and then your video appeared. This said, I don't think this is going to be as much of a 'game changer' in the cost of housing as people think. OK,they said the cost of building was halved, but with most houses the real cost is a) the cost of land, and b) the cost of 'second fixings'...no disrespect to 'Brickies' [my relatives are], but laying bricks is not 'rocket science'.

[Transistor Man]

10 hours ago, JMD said:

Tech investing is difficult, sub sectors such as 3d printing doubly so. Tbh I haven't really looked, but maybe the techies on here might be able to comment?

I would guess Texas Instruments, ST Microelectronics would get a lot of 3D printing & “industry 4.0” business - companies with expertise in sensing, actuation, MEMS, analogue, mixed signal. Bosch too. They aren’t going to be cheap though.

[DurhamBorn]

52 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I have a very good friend, woman in her 50s. She is intelligent, reasonably well-off, and an accountant in a large company but it's exactly as you say. She treats money as if it were tesco clubcard points. Imagine someone actively not caring, I've seen her spend hundreds where a few minutes thought could have achieved whatever it was at much less or even no cost. I don't know what's the matter with people.

Long dis-inflation cycle has made them think goods get cheaper forever and overdraft and loans will see them through.My partner rents her house out as a HMO as she lives with me.The people she gets are split three ways.Foreign,who we always refuse,people moving for work ,we usually refuse as they move on quick,and men between 30 and 55 who have split with partners and have nothing.They are all mostly losers.Work,but have nothing,even there paying £350 all bills included they seem to never get anywhere or use the chance to save.People have no understanding of building capital,and they dont want to put the work in.

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Russell Napier has pointed out this happening during the covid crash:

Written almost exactly one year ago. Magic money tree in the UK to get around BOE withdrawl QE? As he says, politicans are going to love doing this, and now they know they can get away with is. Create an energy crisis, loan them money to fix it. I wonder do they realise that this is the a Mafia model of business?

Its exactly what people need to understand.Distribution cycle.Every single unit of currency they magic dilutes peoples saved labour directly and also by them having to pay more.Each £1 in bennies inflates the costs of goods and services for everyone else.The cost of money,and the increase speed, and decrease speed is the basis of my work because everything else sits on it.Napier is worth listening to,because he spotted it.

Almost everything is coming along now as we plotted on the roadmap.Im really pleased with how we caught the massive jumps in many areas and that now most of the stocks put forward for people are outperforming by large margins.

BAT have put their price up 4 times in the US in a year,by more than it costs to make a box.Price increases of more than it costs to make in the first place,incredible.Wages going up means they can capture it all.

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

You have to love this "historic" thing. What historical period, last 5 years? Gas is still practially free, people are used to having their house at 20 degrees all year round at the flick of a switch. I put the woodburner on last night, and Mrs was complaining that it knocks the radiators off because the thermostat is in the same room. Yes. Yes it does... Walking around the house remined me of growing up, different temperatures in different rooms. We had no central heating, no double glazing etc, we had coal fires, a Super Ser gas heater and you'd run to get into your bed where it was warm. Higher heating bills are going to be a shock for the majority of people - and like the graphic I put up the other day, will start questioning the % of green levies in their bills a lot more I think.

That brought back memories, it was normal in a 1930s Semi, remember one winter when the ice was on the inside of the bedroom window (must have been less than -10C outside) putting a couple of coats on top of the bedding as extra insulation before going to sleep.

Waking up in the morning with the fancy ice patterns on the glass with sunrise coming through the window was a thing of frigid beauty.

[Hancock]

42 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Its funny, just reading the above beforehand I thought of this and then your video appeared. This said, I don't think this is going to be as much of a 'game changer' in the cost of housing as people think. OK,they said the cost of building was halved, but with most houses the real cost is a) the cost of land, and b) the cost of 'second fixings'...no disrespect to 'Brickies' [my relatives are], but laying bricks is not 'rocket science'.

Taking workers out of the equation is hugely significant.

The cost of land could be the cost of attaching utilities plus a small profit for the land seller, with the builder making a profit on the house they've built as opposed to land rigging ... which is closer to what it once was.

 

[JMD]

41 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I would guess Texas Instruments, ST Microelectronics would get a lot of 3D printing & “industry 4.0” business - companies with expertise in sensing, actuation, MEMS, analogue, mixed signal. Bosch too. They aren’t going to be cheap though.

I was aware of Texas Inst. having large analogue division, but interesting the other companies you mention. People think it's 'all going digital', but measurement/gauges are analogue. However as you say not cheap.

[AWW]

57 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

It's not just lasses.

I've heard blokes say they couldn't survive on less than £60k.

If I was on £60k I'd be retiring at 50 without doing anything special.

No idea what these people spend it on

£60k is only £3.5k a month in your hand. It's not much. We spend nearly that much in a month just on rent, bills, food and diesel. With real inflation at 10%, that "not much" will become "not enough" very quickly.

I know there are some very frugal people on here, but I can't see how you can retire at 50 on such a small amount of money, unless you own a house outright.

[Gin]

6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

That brought back memories, it was normal in a 1930s Semi, remember one winter when the ice was on the inside of the bedroom window (must have been less than -10C outside) putting a couple of coats on top of the bedding as extra insulation before going to sleep.

Waking up in the morning with the fancy ice patterns on the glass with sunrise coming through the window was a thing of frigid beauty.

Sorry , must reminisce too . 

Dad wearing a wooley hat , clearing the grate out ready for kindling and coal in our council terrace .

He wore his pyjamas under his trousers all day of a Sunday if not going out on those -10c to -20c previous nights.

During the week he woke myself and two brothers up to get out and push start his Ford Anglia to go and work at Parker Hale as a gunsmith .

OK enough already....

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

£60k is only £3.5k a month in your hand. It's not much. We spend nearly that much in a month just on rent, bills, food and diesel. With real inflation at 10%, that "not much" will become "not enough" very quickly.

I know there are some very frugal people on here, but I can't see how you can retire at 50 on such a small amount of money, unless you own a house outright.

Indeed, you would have had to have put away 25% of your income for 30 years to even stand a chance and then you wouldn't make it to 68 (or whatever the number will be) without working part-time.

[Siggy]

19 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

You have to love this "historic" thing. What historical period, last 5 years? Gas is still practially free, people are used to having their house at 20 degrees all year round at the flick of a switch. I put the woodburner on last night, and Mrs was complaining that it knocks the radiators off because the thermostat is in the same room. Yes. Yes it does... Walking around the house remined me of growing up, different temperatures in different rooms. We had no central heating, no double glazing etc, we had coal fires, a Super Ser gas heater and you'd run to get into your bed where it was warm. Higher heating bills are going to be a shock for the majority of people - and like the graphic I put up the other day, will start questioning the % of green levies in their bills a lot more I think.

Completely agree. Due to my tariff going up massively, for the past few months I've had  the thermostat at 18 degrees compared to 20 degrees last year (to avoid a big argument got her indoors an electric blanket beforehand). Nobody's grumbled and should avoid huge bills.

I still have relatives doing the heating on full blast and windows open thing, though they may not have had a bill shock yet as it can take a while for DD's to be adjusted. 

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, AWW said:

£60k is only £3.5k a month in your hand. It's not much. We spend nearly that much in a month just on rent, bills, food and diesel. With real inflation at 10%, that "not much" will become "not enough" very quickly.

I know there are some very frugal people on here, but I can't see how you can retire at 50 on such a small amount of money, unless you own a house outright.

 I suppose I'm adding this to the fact that my wife works, too. With my current lifestyle and near zero debt service costs, it wouldn't be a problem.

I suppose my post is born from my long-held belief that it ain't so much how much one earns, but what one does with it.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Russell Napier has pointed out this happening during the covid crash:

Written almost exactly one year ago. Magic money tree in the UK to get around BOE withdrawl QE? As he says, politicans are going to love doing this, and now they know they can get away with is. Create an energy crisis, loan them money to fix it. I wonder do they realise that this is the a Mafia model of business?

Agreed, and when different commentators say similar things, people should listen carefully...                                                          I know I am referencing Victor Shvets (again!) but he also predicted these capitol injection policies (in his 2020 book, which was probably written the year before, how could he possibly have know?!) - however he puts a more realistic/dark description on it - no (cosy) magic money tree for him (he's Russian) - instead he says that private capitol will never again walk unaided!! I recently posted that he thought energy would be inflationary, but commods like zinc and copper would be deflationary. Very intriguing thing to say but unfortunately since promoting his book he doesn't appear to have done other interviews.

[Noallegiance]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Indeed, you would have had to have put away 25% of your income for 30 years to even stand a chance and then you wouldn't make it to 68 (or whatever the number will be) without working part-time.

Yes I was perhaps being a little hyperbolic.

Too much time on Twitter...

[Chewing Grass]

Interesting snippet as quarter day news has been ignored this year.

By 8 January 2022, landlords had received 59% of rents due on retail properties on the December quarter day – Christmas Day – in advance for the quarter, commercial property management platform Re-Leased has said. This is below rent payable on the September quarter day, which at the same point was at 61%.

“We are fast approaching the two-year point in this pandemic, and these figures mark the eighth successive quarter of shortfalls in rent collection. The effects of this on commercial landlords must not be underestimated, and many will be looking ahead to March, when the moratorium on evictions for commercial tenants will finally come to an end.”

Something else to tag in for April, along with Tax, NI, Inflation, Energy and Interest Rates.

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/retail-rents-remain-challenged

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Long dis-inflation cycle has made them think goods get cheaper forever and overdraft and loans will see them through.My partner rents her house out as a HMO as she lives with me.The people she gets are split three ways.Foreign,who we always refuse,people moving for work ,we usually refuse as they move on quick,and men between 30 and 55 who have split with partners and have nothing.They are all mostly losers.Work,but have nothing,even there paying £350 all bills included they seem to never get anywhere or use the chance to save.People have no understanding of building capital,and they dont want to put the work in.

Yes, I researched the property sites some time back, and they all seemed to concur that for HMOs, apart from offering bog standard student accommodation, alternative route is to specialise in 'doing'(!!) either divorced/working older men or young/benefits single mothers. The yields are good but still have the hassle factor, unless get an agent to manage, but not easy to find good trustworthy agents willing to manage hmo's.

[DurhamBorn]

33 minutes ago, AWW said:

£60k is only £3.5k a month in your hand. It's not much. We spend nearly that much in a month just on rent, bills, food and diesel. With real inflation at 10%, that "not much" will become "not enough" very quickly.

I know there are some very frugal people on here, but I can't see how you can retire at 50 on such a small amount of money, unless you own a house outright.

I never earned more than £36k a year retired at 49,and had 12 years off between 21 and 49,5 of them travelling around the UK shagging women .Owning my house outright was key.BAT paid half of it off with divs,the other half Arriva shares,5 x them in a short period and paid mortgage off with it.I started saving and investing at 14 with my milk round money.My home town was brutal in the early 80s,80% unemployment and crap bennies then.You had to learn quick how to survive and make money outside of employment.

[CannonFodder]

There.s a massive difference between one household on a single income of 60k, and another household on two incomes of 30k.

Tax thresholds will hit anyone single disportionately. Even more if children in household and child benefit removed

[JMD]

58 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

You have to love this "historic" thing. What historical period, last 5 years? Gas is still practially free, people are used to having their house at 20 degrees all year round at the flick of a switch. I put the woodburner on last night, and Mrs was complaining that it knocks the radiators off because the thermostat is in the same room. Yes. Yes it does... Walking around the house remined me of growing up, different temperatures in different rooms. We had no central heating, no double glazing etc, we had coal fires, a Super Ser gas heater and you'd run to get into your bed where it was warm. Higher heating bills are going to be a shock for the majority of people - and like the graphic I put up the other day, will start questioning the % of green levies in their bills a lot more I think.

I heard a commentator say that for the average elec/gas consumer, their bill was 20% green levies. Not sure if that is accurate. Does anyone know the elec and gas breakdown figures for the UK?