Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[belfastchild]

26 minutes ago, AWW said:

But this use case of poorer nations using e.g. Bitcoin to work around the limitations of their local banking system is entirely reliant on richer people providing the computing power required to secure the network. It's not difficult to imagine a situation where the value of Bitcoin falls enough to cause nodes to leave the network, it then being feasible for nefarious actors to gain control of more than half the network's computing power. I know the difficulty can be changed, but that would seem to be a positive feedback loop - value goes up, difficulty goes up, therefore scarcity increases, therefore value goes up... be interesting to see how that works in reverse.

Costs of electricity going up, isnt there a congressional hearing at the mo/last week into environmental costs of bitcoin.
In a lot of places it will be deemed non-essential if the lights are going out. Try getting it to work then.

Then add in the rumours of chinese quantum computers cracking it in early Jan...
Its a stretch to say thats the reason why china, russia, iran went balls deep into mining to suddenly do an about face in the case of the first two and ban it.

Everything electricity related is getting/going to get a lot more expensive. If governments have to shut down industry due to household demand/heating etc I dont care how many wind farms amazon have funded in Ireland, if theres no wind theres no power and if theres no power...

Heard over the weekend that the alexa outage was exacerbated by the fault reporting system using the same amazon backbone as the stuff that went down. And people refer to these people as geniuses...

[Harley]

I'm going through the daily oversolds which maybe on the turn.  It's been HK REITS in the last few weeks, then the Japanese ones, and now the US ones.  An absolute torrent of them today.  I'll be selectively adding them to my inflation portfolio in due course, maybe not just yet though! 

PS:  Lots of stuff at support, etc.  A lovely time to be looking!

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

These are (were) just your winners, or have you previously dumped ABDN, etc?  Been a fascinating day watching the (hourly moves) and individual weaknesses and strengths.  I'll probably be selling down some more today as some falls look to have legs.  Russia down big which is delusional but Japan did OK overnight (need to see if it leads or follows).  Overall nice as many dumpers had already shown weakness so I parred back already (but never enough!) and bonds (and gold) have softened the blow, maybe for the last time this round for bonds (but I still doubt serious rate rises atm).  Yes, nice if we have a fake NASDAQ rally so I can catch more value.  But only the first day of the week so I'll give things time before drawing a line. 

Lots down yes,but big holdings up,telcos my biggest sector.Iv been topping up all the asset mangers today,Abrdn,Jupiter and Ashmore,that sector is my main focus now,hope they hold or fall more while i get more in.Main concern,though its a nice one to have is my biggest holdings are becoming big percentages of my portfolio and that means i might have to sell a few for balance reasons.Im loathe to sell any BAT for instance ,but if it went up much more id have to trim,il order a whip from Ebay as id have to perform self flagellation and flog myself.Iv been busy today trimming bushes back and cleaning the pond out ready for the frogs arrival in a month.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looking now my portfolio is down 0.6% against down 2.7% for the FTSE 100,down 4% for the FTSE 250.The outright numbers dont matter,but i would want to see outperformance here after we already have a lot already and its as good as could be hoped for.I think as well the sectors doing the portfolio protection are the areas hardly anyone owns,just as i expected and hoped.Days dont matter of course,but it will be interesting to see how inflation areas react on any growth bounce backs.

Really glad BAT did well for you,its showing its beauty at the moment,though id rather it hadnt seeing as buybacks will be starting soon.

There definitely seems to be the expected rotation going on. I've been considering JDW once things started opening up again. I know you've already stepped in. Just looking now and losses for 2 years could be expected but debt's also gone up a lot. Have they been buying distressed assets or covering losses? About -50% from peak should be tempting enough.

[AWW]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been busy today trimming bushes back and cleaning the pond out ready for the frogs arrival in a month.

I wouldn't bother mate, if she's French she won't be trimming her bush and won't mind if yours is a bit unkempt.

[Harley]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lots down yes,but big holdings up,telcos my biggest sector.Iv been topping up all the asset mangers today,Abrdn,Jupiter and Ashmore,that sector is my main focus now,hope they hold or fall more while i get more in.Main concern,though its a nice one to have is my biggest holdings are becoming big percentages of my portfolio and that means i might have to sell a few for balance reasons.Im loathe to sell any BAT for instance ,but if it went up much more id have to trim,il order a whip from Ebay as id have to perform self flagellation and flog myself.Iv been busy today trimming bushes back and cleaning the pond out ready for the frogs arrival in a month.

Ah Jupiter, yes, I was looking too (he goes off to look at Ashmore....!).

Update:  Oh and it's gone!  Think I'll wait for the weeklies!

[Bricormortis]

And so it begins, people getting massacared out there. Some guy complaining after he lost his house and wife because Jim Cramer recommended buy Peleton. Funny but not funny at the same time.

Edited to add could you be surprised if the sob stories are used as cover to ban us from trading individual stock really >

 

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

There definitely seems to be the expected rotation going on. I've been considering JDW once things started opening up again. I know you've already stepped in. Just looking now and losses for 2 years could be expected but debt's also gone up a lot. Have they been buying distressed assets or covering losses? About -50% from peak should be tempting enough.

I bought a lot then sold them all for a 15% profit in a month and bought Blackrock Latin America with it and glad i did as fallen right back.Id like to get them back again,but for now im building the asset managers.They increased share count by 20% by an equity raise.Their debt is fine as they own 70% freeholds that havent mostly been re-valued for 20 years,but it is at the point where it will need to come down,and so i cant see divis any time soon above token amounts.Look like a trading share now,up and down 10% regular.

[Axeman123]

12 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

could you be surprised if the sob stories are used as cover to ban us from trading individual stock really

It is a (small) concern. The finance industry would certainly lobby to trap individual investors in broad index or life strategy funds, if they thought they could get away with it. 

[jamtomorrow]

19 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

And so it begins, people getting massacared out there. Some guy complaining after he lost his house and wife because Jim Cramer recommended buy Peleton. Funny but not funny at the same time.

Edited to add could you be surprised if the sob stories are used as cover to ban us from trading individual stock really >

 

Meamwhile Uncle Dave merrily tapping more nails through his balls. Legend!

 

[Castlevania]

7 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Meamwhile Uncle Dave merrily tapping more nails through his balls. Legend!

 

Watch and learn

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

And so it begins, people getting massacared out there. Some guy complaining after he lost his house and wife because Jim Cramer recommended buy Peleton. Funny but not funny at the same time.

Zoom back down to the level they were before the flu 75%,2/3s down from high.60/40 trackers holding the bag.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

These are (were) just your winners, or have you previously dumped ABDN, etc?  Been a fascinating day watching the (hourly moves) and individual weaknesses and strengths.  I'll probably be selling down some more today as some falls look to have legs.  Russia down big which is delusional but Japan did OK overnight (need to see if it leads or follows).  Overall nice as many dumpers had already shown weakness so I parred back already (but never enough!) and bonds (and gold) have softened the blow, maybe for the last time this round for bonds (but I still doubt serious rate rises atm).  Yes, nice if we have a fake NASDAQ rally so I can catch more value.  But only the first day of the week so I'll give things time before drawing a line. 

That list isn't what @DurhamBornis holding, they were just the biggest FTSE gainers at that time.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I love a market sell off. All good fun for those with perspective and appropriate risk appetite.

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

And so it begins, people getting massacared out there. Some guy complaining after he lost his house and wife because Jim Cramer recommended buy Peleton. Funny but not funny at the same time.

Edited to add could you be surprised if the sob stories are used as cover to ban us from trading individual stock really >

 

Assuming this bloke is telling the truth then he is a moron and deserves to lose it all. Don't ever go full retard on a stock because a shouty bloke recommended it.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Zoom back down to the level they were before the flu 75%,2/3s down from high.60/40 trackers holding the bag.

Very glad I'm not sat in the recommended "lifestyle plan" trackers.

[Hunty]

3 hours ago, Libspero said:

 

I can see that POLY could/should do well,  but all the gold miners seem to be getting hammered too.  Even if gold miners do start to track the uptrend in gold, are you not worried that a company in Russia might be targeted with sanctions or delisted completely as a result of the Ukraine fall out ?

Just seems a pretty high risk gamble when other options look safer.    For the record,  I did buy a bit of FRES so I'm feeling some of your pain   

 

All four Ftse major pm miners are moving in lockstep. Cey, Hoc, Fres and Poly. Look at the yearly and six monthly chart.

Poly at current levels are nicely priced. Fres on the other hand could fall further. Management failings, and constant broken promises.

Fres production report Wednesday, Poly Thursday. These are my two long holds, pays me a nice income while I await the sector to stretch it's legs. It will only when.

 

[Libspero]

25 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Fres on the other hand could fall further. Management failings, and constant broken promises.

I do worry that energy input costs could affect their profits / extraction viability..  but with PMs rising hopefully that will be offset:

 As extraction and production have accelerated to meet demand, mineral deposit grades are declining, requiring a higher volume of ore to be processed in order to meet and exceed production targets. At the same time energy costs, a key component of the cost structure, have risen, as have treatment and refining charges.

[Lightscribe]

22 minutes ago, Hunty said:

All four Ftse major pm miners are moving in lockstep. Cey, Hoc, Fres and Poly. Look at the yearly and six monthly chart.

Poly at current levels are nicely priced. Fres on the other hand could fall further. Management failings, and constant broken promises.

Fres production report Wednesday, Poly Thursday. These are my two long holds, pays me a nice income while I await the sector to stretch it's legs. It will only when.

 

Pretty much my consensus too, delays to the Juanicipio mine for FRES but timed to come online just as the boom starts in PMs in 2022. Big upside for later this year methinks.

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/spotlight-mexicos-us15bn-construction-stage-mining-projects

[Hunty]

Blackrock own 5% of Poly. That's a big position. I've been laddering in as I feel it will bounce hard. Fres is owned 75% by Penoles, sometimes I wonder how much they care about the SP. But I still see it bouncing hard eventually along with Silver. I have no interest in Cey, single mine and Hoc just keeps having issue after issue.

[Pip321]

44 minutes ago, Hunty said:

All four Ftse major pm miners are moving in lockstep. Cey, Hoc, Fres and Poly. Look at the yearly and six monthly chart.

Poly at current levels are nicely priced. Fres on the other hand could fall further. Management failings, and constant broken promises.

Fres production report Wednesday, Poly Thursday. These are my two long holds, pays me a nice income while I await the sector to stretch it's legs. It will only when.

 

Although my list of stocks generally only really includes the biggest businesses in the FTSE 100, Poly is definitely on my list of ‘others’.

Everything to be positive about….other than the Russia issues right now. Not so much I think there is a huge risk, rather I can see sentiment dragging it down further and grabbing a bargain.

[CannonFodder]

Lol, i.ve taken a pasting today as overweight oil and gas 

I.ve only made silly amounts of money this month now, as opposed to making ridiculous amounts of money. Ha ha.

Cant wait to see this weeks fomc minutes, will they say we trapped. Ecomony bad, market bad, inflation bad. 

This is getting fun

 

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

And so it begins, people getting massacared out there. Some guy complaining after he lost his house and wife because Jim Cramer recommended buy Peleton. Funny but not funny at the same time.

Pathetic. Zero sympathy. Unless these people trading are children they can stand by their own decisions and losses.

[Hunty]

1 minute ago, Pip321 said:

Although my list of stocks generally only really includes the biggest businesses in the FTSE 100, Poly is definitely on my list of ‘others’.

Everything to be positive about….other than the Russia issues right now. Not so much I think there is a huge risk, rather I can see sentiment dragging it down further and grabbing a bargain.

Thursdays production report is a key milestone as it will provide some guidance on the May dividend. If they exceed expectations then I see blue days ahead. I got some today at 1124p. As I have nothing under 1250p, but I have taken some huge profit's. If it goes under 1100p I'll throw the kitchen sink at it. Waited today but bounced off 1122.75p twice. The Russia bollocks has no consequence to me same as the bed wetters selling BP because of the Russian link, I have my eye on Gazprom but I never usually buy ADR.

[Loki]

Wonder if the NASDAQ 100 has bottomed, looking like a nice little pre-close rally going on, the composite smashed down through 14000 like it wasn't even there

 

[CannonFodder]

Jim cramer recommended Netflix too i think a few weeks ago