Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Shamone]

4 hours ago, WICAO said:

London is a place for the rich or the benefits class IMHO.

100% 
Which is why it’s such a shithole.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Shamone said:

100% 
Which is why it’s such a shithole.

You missed the word “total “. Sorry to point that out. I’m not a grammar nazi. Not even a nazi. Correct though. Shithole.

[Virgil Caine]

17 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Distraction tactic IMO, and/or making Pishy the bad-guy that has to say no.

I bet this comes to nowt. BJ is really under the gun.

Johnson can’t manage his own finances let alone the nations. He has always been a showboating politician relying on publicity stunts and looking for quick fixes. That said I doubt many people will be that keen to take on his job at the moment. I noticed that  when Jeremy Hunt was asked if he fancied being Tory Leader his reply was that he would interested “at some time in the future”.  Labour won’t be sorry that the GE is a couple of years away either.  I am sure they will remember that winning two elections in 1974 in a similar economic crisis did them no long term favours either. as they got thumped in 1979 and were out of power for the best part of two decades.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

...I doubt many people will be that keen to take on his job at the moment...

The interesting thing about that is Pishy recently making the Sunday Times rich list, which is obviously untennable for a PM during a cost of living crisis. I had previously heard that you more or less had to apply and provide evidence to be included, especially if assets are sensibly held in privacy-focused offshore vehicles or trusts. Allegedly many people outside the public eye would rate the top echelon but don't even appear.

Did Pishy ask to be in the list to nobble himself, because he doesn't want to be the one to eat the shit-sandwich of 2022-2023? I am sure that the Johnson camp could have called in a favour to have him included based on public information of course. 

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

[MrXxxx]

I know a few of you folks were recently asking about brokers, and AJ Bell have just announced a reduction in their charges as follows...don't know how it compares to others but if you are currently 'researching' you may have missed this:

What we’re changing   If you deal in international stocks, you’ll pay less in foreign exchange (FX) charges per deal. To give you an example, for a £6,000 deal, you’ll currently pay £60 in FX charges – this will go down to £45 from 1 July.   We’re also lowering our dividend reinvestment service charge to a flat fee of £1.50, making it more affordable to reinvest your income automatically.   And we’ll also be simplifying our custody charge for funds. You can see full details of the changes we’re making to our charges below.   Foreign exchange charge on international dealing and foreign currency funds    Existing charge  New charge  Deal value  FX charge  Deal value  FX charge  First £10,000  1.00%  First £10,000  0.75%  Next £10,000  0.75%  Next £10,000  0.50%  Next £10,000  0.50%  £20,000 +  0.25%  £30,000 +  0.25%

Dividend reinvestment charge    Existing charge  New charge  1.00% (min £1.50, max £9.95)  £1.50

Funds custody charge – SIPP, Junior SIPP, Stocks and shares ISA and Dealing account     Existing charge  New charge  Value  Annual charge  Value  Annual charge  First £0 - £250,000  0.25%  First £0 - £250,000  0.25%  Next £250,000 - £1m  0.10%  Next £250,000 - £500,000  0.10%  Next £1m - £2m  0.05%  Value over £500,000  No charge  Value over £2m  No charge

Transfer out charges   You won’t pay any charges for moving your cash and/or investments to another provider.

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*Includes Stocks and shares ISA, Lifetime ISA and Junior ISA

[Froggy2000]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

[HousePriceMania]

I thought this lot were toast before the pandemic... The magic money tree is chopped down and so are they 

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

Theatre IMO...it would all be D noticed if there was anything truly revolutionary about it

[MrXxxx]

5 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

Well Starmer of course!....well, when he has got up off his knee...or was it knees?.....

[Virgil Caine]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The interesting thing about that is Pishy recently making the Sunday Times rich list, which is obviously untennable for a PM during a cost of living crisis. I had previously heard that you more or less had to apply and provide evidence to be included, especially if assets are sensibly held in privacy-focused offshore vehicles or trusts. Allegedly many people outside the public eye would rate the top echelon but don't even appear.

Did Pishy ask to be in the list to nobble himself, because he doesn't want to be the one to eat the shit-sandwich of 2022-2023? I am sure that the Johnson camp could have called in a favour to have him included based on public information of course. 

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

The worst outcome for Starmer would be the Tories oust Johnson, the new leader calls a a snap GE using his majority to force a poll and Labour end up in power as the largest party but dependent on the Lib Dems in some sort of rerun of the mid 1970s. In my view the Labour leadership will be earnestly praying that Tory MPs are more worried about hanging onto their seats for a couple of more years than replacing Johnson. It is in Starmer’s interest to let the current PM stay in power attracting more and more negative headlines in the run up to 2024.

[Axeman123]

Just now, Froggy2000 said:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

Well, thats the $64 000 question.

Probably the biggest macro-economic factor at the national level over the next 12 months will be how government policy handles things; firehose of money, or stoicly refusing. Now we have another unknown. The last thing we need is an ambitous careerist trying to be popular. David Davies woud be my preference, and then a new leader mid-2024 to prepare for the latest possible GE (which seems baked in to me). 

[HousePriceMania]

Petrofac up 0.19%

Snapchat down 43%

🤣🤣🤣

[King Penda]

14 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

In a way I hope you are right. He is a total liability now and the stakes couldn't be higher. Who can do a better job though?

Abbott

[Shamone]

4 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Abbott

 

[feed]

People he been calling it for Boris for months.  But arguably he is a better position than he was earlier this year.  

The local elections ended up being worse for Labour 
Rishi (assuming that he ever really wanted it) is out of the game at least for now, if not permanently
and no other serious contender wants the job, and really who would right now.  

I suppose there is a chance that they dump Truss in as May rerun, but that's a huge risk when Boris follows the narrative and they've two years to go.  If the want him out, much better to let him eat as much of this shitshow as possible and dump him with a year run up for a new leader.  
 

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The interesting thing about that is Pishy recently making the Sunday Times rich list, which is obviously untennable for a PM during a cost of living crisis. I had previously heard that you more or less had to apply and provide evidence to be included, especially if assets are sensibly held in privacy-focused offshore vehicles or trusts. Allegedly many people outside the public eye would rate the top echelon but don't even appear.

Did Pishy ask to be in the list to nobble himself, because he doesn't want to be the one to eat the shit-sandwich of 2022-2023? I am sure that the Johnson camp could have called in a favour to have him included based on public information of course. 

I am just watching tonight's Panorama about partygate, it seems terminal for BJ to me. Pic from DM:

He is finished i think.His government is a disaster.If he announces £1k for the bennies tomorrow then the middle will be outraged more than they already are and will stay at home come elections.I was talking to a few staunch Tories who despise Labour,but wont vote Tory until this lot are cleaned out,they are staunch.Strikes everywhere will be next as workers try to keep up with the bennies.

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Theatre IMO...it would all be D noticed if there was anything truly revolutionary about it

There have been so many "speculations" from Kuensberg et al about almost that exact photo ( ie "are there photos of him near bottles?" "our sources say he may have been photographed with a drink in hand" etc), that I think those photographs have been circulating for months and until now were effectively D noticed.

6 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

..In my view the Labour leadership will be earnestly praying that Tory MPs are more worried about hanging onto their seats for a couple of more years than replacing Johnson...

Allegedly there is proof that Labour members and staff actively sabotaged their general election campaign to get rid of Corbyn. Labour will need to put that to bed, or wait for Corbyn to die, before they can risk a leadership contest of their own.

Can you imagine the damage Angela Rayner could do to the UK over the next 12 months as PM?

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is finished i think.His government is a disaster.If he announces £1k for the bennies tomorrow then the middle will be outraged more than they already are and will stay at home come elections.I was talking to a few staunch Tories who despise Labour,but wont vote Tory until this lot are cleaned out,they are staunch.Strikes everywhere will be next as workers try to keep up with the bennies.

Do you see any possibility of a co ordinated bail in off the west ie 10% of our savings shares and pensions ?

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, King Penda said:

Do you see any possibility of a co ordinated bail in off the west ie 10% of our savings shares and pensions ?

No,just inflation ,same as its always been.10% bail in wouldnt cover bennies for a year,worthless.

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is finished i think.His government is a disaster.If he announces £1k for the bennies tomorrow then the middle will be outraged more than they already are and will stay at home come elections.I was talking to a few staunch Tories who despise Labour,but wont vote Tory until this lot are cleaned out,they are staunch.Strikes everywhere will be next as workers try to keep up with the bennies.

1k that won’t touch the sides they got 80 a month extra during covid fuck knows why and I actually got it

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,just inflation ,same as its always been.10% bail in wouldnt cover bennies for a year,worthless.

Not even of everything ?

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Hunt incoming. Just a matter of when.

[Virgil Caine]

31 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Well, thats the $64 000 question.

Probably the biggest macro-economic factor at the national level over the next 12 months will be how government policy handles things; firehose of money, or stoicly refusing. Now we have another unknown. The last thing we need is an ambitous careerist trying to be popular. David Davies woud be my preference, and then a new leader mid-2024 to prepare for the latest possible GE (which seems baked in to me). 

Can’t be long before they start talking about prices and incomes policies and all the other conjuring tricks of the 1970s. The Democrats in the USA are already mouthing platitudes about them. The truth is inflation is death to political careers as it tends to impact everyone and makes life stressful even for those voters who are normally politically disengaged. Oddly deep recessions which by their nature tend to be more focussed on certain businesses and individuals are much easier to ride out politically as Mrs Thatcher proved. As long as it is a minority of voters going bust or losing their job then the rest of society will probably not give a fuck. That was certainly my experience as one of the 3.5 million unemployed in the early 1980s.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

. As long as it is a minority of voters going bust or losing their job then the rest of society will probably not give a fuck. That was certainly my experience as one of the 3.5 million unemployed in the early 1980s.

BTL would be the obvious choice that fits that bill 

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

BTL would be the obvious choice that fits that bill 

Think of the banks I’d go for means tested pensions brought foward a freeze in inheritance tax so they catch more

[Virgil Caine]

32 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Think of the banks I’d go for means tested pensions brought foward a freeze in inheritance tax so they catch more

The point about recessions is that politicians don’t have to make those choices. They leave it to the market to decide who are the winners and losers. As long as there are more of the former than the latter is all that matters.

Incidentally I am of the view that the current recessionary indicators are being driven by the supply side inflation starting to eat into business profits not the rather half hearted monetary tightening from the central banks. Again this does seem to echo the early 1970s. Therefore the conventional idea that halting interest rate rises or stopping QT will make it all magically go away is not going to work.