Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[WICAO]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Apparently the 'World Economy Has a Buffer Against Recession', this must be one of Klaus Schwabs chicks.

Does anybody know what that buffer is?

[THE SOUP DRAGON]

3 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Does anybody know what that buffer is?

Monkeypox. Fire up the printers.

 

[Bricormortis]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Apparently the 'World Economy Has a Buffer Against Recession', this must be one of Klaus Schwabs chicks.

What she can be quite fairly interpreted as saying  (based on that article )link  is that the IMF growth forcasts may be over optimistic. ( She is saying " Look we forcast growth of 3.6 %. Thats the buffer . However things are going to shit all over the place and we are probably wrong about all that " )       ( Not her actual words though )

So she will either be right or she will be right. She gets paid for this sort of stuff you know.

[CannonFodder]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The economy is trying to price discover in all areas,but the government is stopping it by trying to stop anyone on the state tit losing anything.Its a disaster to do that,but they dont seem to understand it.Of course up until now it was more hidden as monetising debt was how they did it,so still taking spending power from the productive,but most dont understand that.Now QE is finished they have to tax to spend more,and it seems they are deciding to just take saved capital direct now.Windfall taxes are just nationalisation without having to even pay for our shares.

I expect the collapse is more likely than you may be thinking.

In my experience, people do one of two things when they hit trouble - they either do more of the same thing or less of the same thing.

Its rare that they do anything fundamentally different

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

I wasn't trying to compare it to my lifestyle but merely show that there must be better options elsewhere even when earning less money.  It's not always about the hourly rate.

Not an expert and it doesn't affect me so will do this quickly.

So after tax and NI our £35,100 turns into £2,271 per month.  Now let's say our bar tender has somehow managed to rustle up the £33,000 deposit for said shit flat so we're borrowing £297,000.  Let's say 30 years and let's go with the big mortgage boys, Nationwide, on a 2 year fix hoping we can do the same again in 2 years and so forth.  That's £1,227 per month.  So our bartender has £1,044 left after paying taxes and a mortgage.

Plan B is to get out of London and pay, what, £150,000 for a flat...  But instead of earning the big bucks we're now at the minimum wage of £9.50.  So £22,230 per annum.  After tax and NI we're at £1,555.  With our £33,000 deposit now we're borrowing £113,000 meaning our repayments are now £479.  So now our bartender has £1,076.

So our fantastic £15 per hour wage in Norwood is no better than minimum wage in a part of the country with more affordable housing.

London is a place for the rich or the benefits class IMHO.

This is the correct way to look at it ,I can earn 4 quid an hour less than other people and still be far better off no debt at all.I could even afoard another morgage on benifits (obviously they won’t let me do that ) because my life style has no debt and fewer out goings

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I expect the collapse is more likely than you may be thinking.

In my experience, people do one of two things when they hit trouble - they either do more of the same thing or less of the same thing.

Its rare that they do anything fundamentally different

Printy printy bennies up, pensions up, government spending up etc. There is an election due in 2 years in the UK and USA. I can't not imagine the printers getting put back on warp speed 10 in the run up. Classic polo can kicking and trying to buy votes in the face of the inflation caused by Putin

[Bus Stop Boxer]

17 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Does anybody know what that buffer is?

Bug Farms.

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Bug Farms.

Can Vegans eat bugs?

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 minutes ago, King Penda said:

This is the correct way to look at it ,I can earn 4 quid an hour less than other people and still be far better off no debt at all.I could even afoard another morgage on benifits (obviously they won’t let me do that ) because my life style has no debt and fewer out goings

Similar here, 'cheap' home in the North West, cars bought & paid for with cash, low road tax, insurance and fuel bills. No desire to keep up with the Jones’s etc, just keep Chipping away at the mortgage and saving. No big loans, credit card balances etc

[King Penda]

6 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Printy printy bennies up, pensions up, government spending up etc. There is an election due in 2 years in the UK and USA. I can't not imagine the printers getting put back on warp speed 10 in the run up. Classic polo can kicking and trying to buy votes in the face of the inflation caused by Putin

And covid and brexit

[Bus Stop Boxer]

There was a fella on Liam Halligans show on GB News the other day from the motor retailers association. He said 1st quarter was okish but that from April onwards new enquiries had fallen off a cliff and he was quite fearful for the industry.

I think the tide has now started lapping at UK housing and Boris' early warning system has been activated.

Hence the shite about BTL tax breaks. Like clockwork these guys.

[Bobthebuilder]

7 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Meanwhile, nice fat ABRDN divi landed today.

Hopefully the sector stays down for a while and more ladders can be bought... 

Very nice divi from them today, it was my first divi since buying. Did not think it would be such a large amount on my holding, every 6 months I presume.

Ps. Yes my research is a bit shit.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Here is the £15+ per hour bar job. Obviously a bit of skill required to mix cocktails and late nights Friday and Saturday. You get a cab home and keep the tips. Nowhere near central London. I wonder what they're earning there? Costa coffee was offering over £10 per hour before Christmas so it is a fair argument that this is the correct value for the role.

The Greyhound used to be a rather down at heel pub.

£5 per pint - doesn’t seem too bad for London

https://www.thequeenshouse.co.uk/beer-menu

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

There was a fella on Liam Halligans show on GB News the other day from the motor retailers association. He said 1st quarter was okish but that from April onwards new enquiries had fallen off a cliff and he was quite fearful for the industry.

I think the tide has now started lapping at UK housing and Boris' early warning system has been activated.

Hence the shite about BTL tax breaks. Like clockwork these guys.

July is the next 5 week month for the Monthly Paid.

[AlfredTheLittle]

41 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

"the Prime Minister is keen to do something radical on housing before the next election"

Hopefully he'll accidentally crash the market!

[RJT1979]

35 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Does anybody know what that buffer is?

Her tits 

[feed]

38 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Does anybody know what that buffer is?

if you don't know who the mark/patsy/sucker is...

[Chewing Grass]

Just done my occasional first 3 digit postcode search on rightmove, usually 125-130 properties, used to be 200 10 years, ago now 159. The new listings are mostly mega expensive posh houses on the edge of town, a whole first page of them with nothing under £1M.

Here are the first seven, the last one (the big shed) has been up for sale for years.

Other than the first one, they stink of property developers trying to get out.

[Castlevania]

.

[Plan-b]

6 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Printy printy bennies up, pensions up, government spending up etc. There is an election due in 2 years in the UK and USA. I can't not imagine the printers getting put back on warp speed 10 in the run up. Classic polo can kicking and trying to buy votes in the face of the inflation caused by Putin

If they don't get a grip soon and start behaving like were in a reflation cycle (which we are) Inflation will get out of control and their problems will be far worse than trying appease BTL'rs and Bennie recipients

[Democorruptcy]

Weathy calling for a wealth tax. The governbankment will tax those at the Durham instead of the Davos Summit. The very wealthy will escape it.

 

Quote

 

A handful of wealthy attendees gathered in Davos are calling on world leaders to tackle the cost of living crisis by pushing up taxes for people like them.

They took to the streets on Sunday alongside left-wing activists to call for fairer tax systems worldwide.

Political and business leaders are at the first in-person World Economic Forum (WEF) since the pandemic began.

But criticisms are mounting over the way the wealthy have profited in the last two years.

UK millionaire Phil White said: "While the rest of the world is collapsing under the weight of an economic crisis, billionaires and world leaders meet in this private compound to discuss turning points in history.

"It's outrageous that our political leaders listen to those who have the most, know the least about the economic impact of this crisis, and many of whom pay infamously little in taxes. The only credible outcome from this conference is to tax the richest and tax us now."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61549155

 

 

[Plan-b]

26 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Can Vegans eat bugs?

The WEF told me everyone can

[Axeman123]

23 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

...I think the tide has now started lapping at UK housing and Boris' early warning system has been activated.

Hence the shite about BTL tax breaks. Like clockwork these guys.

The thing is, a possible future cut to CGT for BTLers thinking of selling up incentivises them to wait for it. Actually giving them the cut then encourages them to follow through and sell. Logically, BJ is trying to stall BTL exiting with waffle that he would never actually have an incentive to deliver on.

If this is his best shot, I think we could be on for reductions here.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Burry has no doubt where we're heading.

[HousePriceMania]

Anyone know what's happening here....