Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is finished i think.His government is a disaster.If he announces £1k for the bennies tomorrow then the middle will be outraged more than they already are and will stay at home come elections.I was talking to a few staunch Tories who despise Labour,but wont vote Tory until this lot are cleaned out,they are staunch.Strikes everywhere will be next as workers try to keep up with the bennies.

1k that won’t touch the sides they got 80 a month extra during covid fuck knows why and I actually got it

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,just inflation ,same as its always been.10% bail in wouldnt cover bennies for a year,worthless.

Not even of everything ?

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Hunt incoming. Just a matter of when.

[Virgil Caine]

31 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Well, thats the $64 000 question.

Probably the biggest macro-economic factor at the national level over the next 12 months will be how government policy handles things; firehose of money, or stoicly refusing. Now we have another unknown. The last thing we need is an ambitous careerist trying to be popular. David Davies woud be my preference, and then a new leader mid-2024 to prepare for the latest possible GE (which seems baked in to me). 

Can’t be long before they start talking about prices and incomes policies and all the other conjuring tricks of the 1970s. The Democrats in the USA are already mouthing platitudes about them. The truth is inflation is death to political careers as it tends to impact everyone and makes life stressful even for those voters who are normally politically disengaged. Oddly deep recessions which by their nature tend to be more focussed on certain businesses and individuals are much easier to ride out politically as Mrs Thatcher proved. As long as it is a minority of voters going bust or losing their job then the rest of society will probably not give a fuck. That was certainly my experience as one of the 3.5 million unemployed in the early 1980s.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

. As long as it is a minority of voters going bust or losing their job then the rest of society will probably not give a fuck. That was certainly my experience as one of the 3.5 million unemployed in the early 1980s.

BTL would be the obvious choice that fits that bill 

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

BTL would be the obvious choice that fits that bill 

Think of the banks I’d go for means tested pensions brought foward a freeze in inheritance tax so they catch more

[Virgil Caine]

32 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Think of the banks I’d go for means tested pensions brought foward a freeze in inheritance tax so they catch more

The point about recessions is that politicians don’t have to make those choices. They leave it to the market to decide who are the winners and losers. As long as there are more of the former than the latter is all that matters.

Incidentally I am of the view that the current recessionary indicators are being driven by the supply side inflation starting to eat into business profits not the rather half hearted monetary tightening from the central banks. Again this does seem to echo the early 1970s. Therefore the conventional idea that halting interest rate rises or stopping QT will make it all magically go away is not going to work.

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

You missed the word “total “. Sorry to point that out. I’m not a grammar nazi. Not even a nazi. Correct though. Shithole.

you missed the word total. I might try on my nazi uniform tonight, wonder if it still fits.

Bought it off a ginger guy called harry down the boozer a few years back.

[King Penda]

Just now, Cattle Prod said:

The legislation was brought into the EU in 2013, after field trials on Cypriot savers. UK has hopefully avoided thanks to brexit 

If the west goes for it everyone will do it so there’s no safe haven .ie us the yanks the Europeans Canadians and ozz and New Zealand the Chinese and Russians will get hit the Chinese government will smile

[leonardratso]

10 minutes ago, King Penda said:

If the west goes for it everyone will do it so there’s no safe haven .ie us the yanks the Europeans Canadians and ozz and New Zealand the Chinese and Russians will get hit the Chinese government will smile

aye, i reckon theyll fall into lockstep regardless of borders and legislation, look how covid and lockdown worked almost worldwide.

[Harley]

Seems the smoke is more widely being smelt at last!

[Harley]

[Libspero]

7 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Incidentally I am of the view that the current recessionary indicators are being driven by the supply side inflation starting to eat into business profits

Yep,  we’re seeing that.

Our revenue has never been higher and yet our CEO got a kicking from the investors because our margins had dropped.  And that’s against a backdrop of two price increases last year.  Since that call,  all discounting is prohibited and prices look set to rise yet again.   We are fortunate that we can get away with it(for now),  but in a lot of industries it must be starting to cause demand destruction.

[belfastchild]

8 hours ago, feed said:

People he been calling it for Boris for months. 

I was told by someone I trust to know these things that he would be gone by Christmas last year over all this stuff, even put a bet on it! The person who told me believed it.
Have to hand it to Boris though, just waves it off with a 'piffle' and gets back to doing what he wants. Hes probably just the bag man and nobody wants to take on a poison chalice when they can blame someone else.

[HousePriceMania]

8 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Incidentally I am of the view that the current recessionary indicators are being driven by the supply side inflation starting to eat into business profits not the rather half hearted monetary tightening from the central banks. 

Just put prices up....

More and more convinced we might see a deflationary bust due to the fact people are living on debt, many are tapped out, the printers have stopped, rate rises are inevitable, people can put their prices up but will anyone buy.

 

Interested to hear what @DurhamBornthinks on that at the mo ?

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Virgil Caine]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just put prices up....

More and more convinced we might see a deflationary bust due to the fact people are living on debt, many are tapped out, the printers have stopped, rate rises are inevitable, people can put their prices up but will anyone buy.

 

As mentioned on another thread it is laughable politicians and the MSM blathering on about a cost of living crisis caused by imported energy and other material costs yet have been absolutely silent about the fact the cost of housing has gone up by 5-10% per annum for the best part of 25 years. Given the cost of rent or mortgages is the biggest bill most people face this omission is clearly deliberate. What is so irritating is that governments have little influence on external cost push inflation but a great deal of control over land and property within their borders. Of course what is now happening is that energy etc price increases are starting to eat into the money and credit available for the housing market as they are reverting to consuming levels of the household budget that often occurred in the past. 

[DurhamBorn]

10 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

As mentioned on another thread it is laughable politicians and the MSM blathering on about a cost of living crisis caused by imported energy and other material costs yet have been absolutely silent about the fact the cost of housing has gone up by 5-10% per annum for the best part of 25 years. Given the cost of rent or mortgages is the biggest bill most people face this omission is clearly deliberate. What is so irritating is that governments have little influence on external cost push inflation but a great deal of control over land and property within their borders. Of course what is now happening is that energy etc price increases are starting to eat into the money and credit available for the housing market as they are reverting to consuming levels of the household budget that often occurred in the past. 

UK is crying out for a leader who tells the truth.The bloke in the pub knows the truth and what needs to be done.It was similar just before Thatcher came along.Everyone knows mass immigration and bennies are causing most of the problems,it all goes back to those because the state is set up to help those areas by taking from the others.

Thatcher got in and did the job because people knew it needed doing,even if they didnt like the fact it needed doing.

In my town most BTL is owned by public sector workers or ex public sector workers using their pension lump sums to buy houses,but most of those rents are funded by bennies.So private sector low paid worker is paying for the state worker to fleece them twice over,and ensure they cant get a home.

The good news is they cant fight the macro forever,with monetising debt cut off,unless they increase rates to do some small QE,then its only a matter of time before the government implodes.

 

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, Libspero said:

Yep,  we’re seeing that.

Our revenue has never been higher and yet our CEO got a kicking from the investors because our margins had dropped.  And that’s against a backdrop of two price increases last year.  Since that call,  all discounting is prohibited and prices look set to rise yet again.   We are fortunate that we can get away with it(for now),  but in a lot of industries it must be starting to cause demand destruction.

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs will be determining where the money goes. Physiological and safety requirements such as food, heating, shelter will take precedence. Any business depending on satisfying things such as aesthetic or self actualisation needs is going to be in trouble as is anyone who works in those areas.

[Boon]

Drax/Cna rebounded a bit from yesterday, suspect the mooted wealth tax might be a softball or be only tough on paper

I still think no way the government capitulates so soon with the election so far away, it'll be 2023 when the money comes out for the poor.

[AWW]

11 hours ago, Shamone said:

100% 
Which is why it’s such a shithole.

You can't label all of London. Parts of it are shitholes. Parts of it are very nice indeed. It's the same everywhere.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/24/windfall-tax-within-days-boris-johnson-tries-move-partygate/
 

[Bricormortis]

2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I was told by someone I trust to know these things that he would be gone by Christmas last year over all this stuff, even put a bet on it! The person who told me believed it.
Have to hand it to Boris though, just waves it off with a 'piffle' and gets back to doing what he wants. Hes probably just the bag man and nobody wants to take on a poison chalice when they can blame someone else.

His refusal to go is symbolic of a culture of deteriorating standards within public office.

Re the Photo he can say he is around 2 meters distance. 

But what about the others ?

He has blatantly lied to parliament. There was a time when that would have been the end of his career because honour counted for somethin.

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/24/windfall-tax-within-days-boris-johnson-tries-move-partygate/
 

Mr Snake's targeting wealth re-distribution.

[AWW]

Re Windfall Tax, the fact that it's being worked on (and therefore at a stage where the detail could be leaked to the well-connected) but there has been no sell-off, suggests that it's not going to be particularly impactful.

I am considering selling out of Shell and BP temporarily until I know more. Anyone else thinking the same or different?